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On April 03 2012 19:59 Bluelightz wrote:Show nested quote +On April 03 2012 10:27 Sbrubbles wrote:Guys, I'll make my pull on syllo now. ##pull syllogismAnother point is that we may be able to get another lynch in by pushing. There are still 8 pushes around and what I see as two viable candidates: Bluelightz: Gives a town read list almost first thing in the game then gives a strange explanation and lets it drop. Wtf? Pressured, he claims an ability that I just can't see as being town. I mean, lay down bombs and only he knows where they're at? Even if it's legit, I think it'd be too risky to use it. Above all, I think he needs to come here and use his pull.
Cascades: He does a pull on Palmar to just to check if he was telling the truth when there was no purpose in him lying, even if he was scum. I mean, it would make sense if he was arguing in favor of Palmar getting his item, but otherwise a strange move. His suggestion on writing down what you expect to happen when you PoP imho doesn't add much and doesn't help. But it's a way to appear useful. This is the strange thing, though: On April 03 2012 01:17 cascades wrote: Dumb role, but if it is what you got, can't blame you.
I like Bluelightz 's response. Going to cut him slack for his earlier inactivity due to wife/internet and stuff. How can he cut Blue's slack when he never pressured him in the first place? Opinions? Just clarifying my role but I DO NOT KNOW WHICH SPOT IS BOOBY TRAPPED OUT OF THE 3 BUT I KNOW 1 OF THE SPOTS THAT WILL BE PUBLICLY ANNOUNCED IS SAFE.
I still can't see any way of this being a town ability. Can you please explain the ability a bit better, because I cannot possibly see any way this would benefit town. Insofar as I understand your explanation:
You choose (?) 3 positions in the queue and a bomb is placed in one of them. You know that ONE of these is safe (which is publicly announced).
Firstly I'm not sure I even believe your claim: this is a strangely convoluted power: if one of them is guaranteed safe, then why not just select 2 positions randomly (I know, probabilities work out slightly differently, but not enough to matter).
Secondly, the queue is randomized at the start of the day, so there's a good chance someone will start on the boobytrap and explode due to random. Because there's more town than scum, the chance this happens to town is greater than that it happens to scum.
Now, assuming that doesn't happen, you then disclose the possible positions of your bombs and we start moving scummy players there. However, from D1 we know that scum has some kind of hidden move thingy.
So all in all, your power has far more risk than reward for town. However, I cannot fathom why you would roleclaim such a power as scum, except to create confusion. Is that it? Are you just trying to confuse the shit out of people?
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On April 04 2012 00:12 Sbrubbles wrote: I'm dissapointed Syllo wasn't incinerated. I have a scum read on him, but as long as you believe risk, he is a good lynch candidate even if your read is null.
Lets consider him null, for argument's sake. By lynching him we would have: 1) 1/3 chance of nailing scum 2) Better idea of Ceph's and my own alignment 3) More PoPs the next day, given that less PoP's would be devoted to figuring out which one of us is/are scum
So, that tells me that those who ended the day without using their pulls (Bluelightz, Zenthor, Acro and Palmar) either:
1) Have a solid town read on him 2) Weren't around at the deadline and chose wilfully to end the day without using their Pulls 3) Are scum and don't want to lynch their buddy Syllo
As I said, I have a scum read on Syllo, but I can see someone interpreting him as null. That said, I don't believe anyone here has a solid town read on him. So, tell me guys, which one is it? I believe I made that perfectly clear. I had no scum read on any of you when I went to bed. This morning when I got up I looked at all your posts, and if one of you 3 is scum, I believe it's you. You're going to have to come up with something better than an OMGUS to convince me otherwise.
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On April 04 2012 03:02 Tobon wrote:Show nested quote +On April 04 2012 02:49 Nemesis wrote: Note how he says he is suspicious of cascades but is not willing to lynch him. Oh, and this part. My read on cascades is here: link. In short: scummy. The bit you quoted is me saying that the timing of the PoP on cascades was poor because we hadn't decided for sure on a target yet. As many of us are agreeing now, a lot of us (me definitely included) used our PoPs poorly and in an uncoordinated way on day 1. Hopefully we can do better from here on out. I'm not so sure. I said earlier that I could not come up with a decent reason for scum to claim such an obviously scummy role, but this post brings one to mind: you're stating that it's so absurd that he must be town.
Lets entertain a thought: he's scum and is roleclaiming.
a. It's a true roleclaim. He now comes off looking honest (albeit naive) and promises to use his bombs for the good of the town. We now trust him, because he doesn't use his bombs and plays for the end-game when he places them, maybe even convincing town that it is now a good move, because the statistics have changed (more chance of hitting mafia) b. It's a false roleclaim. We threaten to lynch him if he uses his bombs, because they are horribly anti-town (or if we don't threaten he admits it's anti-town to use them and promises not to). If he has some hidden role, he can now safely use his hidden role while claiming that he is not using his ability (bombs) for the good of the town.
Given that almost all the roles seen so far in this game have a verifiable effect (the exception seems to be BillMurray's strange DT claim), it is a lot easier to roleclaim something that is either real, or you don't want to use.
Some added wifom based on DFM1 roles:
Welcome to Death Factory Mafia! You are the explosive Blaster Mine Toy! You are a Good Toy.
Usually sold to children as a glorified fire cracker you ended up stuck in the factory with some bad, bad toys. But you refuse to be a sitting duck. Using your blaster charges you can destroy actual spaces on the queue. You have 2 charges and may use them in one of 2 ways:
1.) You can place a primer under a single queue at night. At the end of the day any toy in that position of the queue will be blown up or
2.) You can place both of your charges under the queue position and the first Toy to encounter it will be blown up. Be careful as if you do this, when the day starts it will immediately blow up anyone starting on that queue which could be you!
You win by eliminating all of the Bad Toys.
This was a role in DFM1: almost the same as the role Bluelightz is claiming, but no randomness. The lack of random makes it a lot more townie imho.
Now, other than this roleclaim, what in Bluelightz filter makes you lean towards town? Because if we accept that the roleclaim says very little about his alignment, I am left with the same nonsense in his filter as I saw yesterday.
On April 01 2012 13:50 Bluelightz wrote: Snarfs, wbg, wiggles, tobon are town. any questions? Yes, actually. Why do you think this:
On April 01 2012 15:18 Bluelightz wrote: I haven't helped discussion and didn't explain my reads. I think the people I mentioned are town because they didn't seem to act like they are discussing stuff in a qt blah blah.I agree that we should coordinate our PoPs. So, 8 posts into the game, you claim you can sniff out QT coordination? Trolololol.
And that, ladies and gentlemen, is the entire content of bluelightz filter if we ignore the QQ about his wifi and the repeated obtuse explanations of his role. So yeah, Bluelightz is pretty high on my scumometer (although current priorities should be on Syllo/Cephiro/Sbrubbles)
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Very late EBWOP to the post above. I just saw I quoted the wrong person. The quote at the top of my post should be this:
On April 04 2012 03:01 prplhz wrote: I really doubt that Bluelightz is scum. I didn't think so before the claim and his outbursts in face of the scrutiny he was under during his absence seem genuine and townlike. Furthermore, that claim doesn't do him any good since he's claiming a scum role, the only thing the claim actually does is make sure that he can never use his power without getting lynched so the claim makes little sense from scum perspective.
I just can't get over why Ace and Kurumi would give a scum role to a townie but as long as it isn't overpowered then I don't care.
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Okay, I wanted to leave it until tomorrow, but it's probably worth the discussion, so here's my reads.
Leading the scumomenter are Sbrubbles and Bluelightz, for reasons posted earlier. Suspicions: I still don't like BillMurray's roleclaim.. and his filter is completely void of any content, except for the roleclaim and this:
On April 02 2012 11:06 Bill Murray wrote:Show nested quote +On April 02 2012 10:45 VisceraEyes wrote: I don't know if I want to save Palmar yet...he hasn't really done much in the way of scumhunting and he's certainly not contributing in any other way. I'm actually cool with him being where he's at if he intends to keep up this quality of play. ^^ I disagree with this He has confirmed his role What more can you do as town? That's why I'm willing to die for my claim. HOW IS THIS TOWNIE? What you can do as town is hunt scum!
I am also suspicious of Mattchew, who has so far been rather quiet. I know this is a meta-argument and I only have one game to go on, but in GoT mafia he was very loud and obnoxious (and I pushed hard to get him killed). Now his filter is almost empty and he seems to have no opinion of his own. Mattchew, I would like to hear what your reads are. Top 3 scum and top 3 town NOW. GO!
Finally MrZentor, Layabout and risk.nuke are on my scumometer because they have no actions at all on D1. Palmar also did no actions, but he's confirmed to have been nullified. Of the three I mentioned, risk.nuke said his ability eats a PoP and layabout says he can't PoP at all. Lets say I believe that, that leaves MrZentor, who went awol during 3/4 of D1. That makes me suspicious.
People I have my eye on: Syllo and Cephiro for obvious reasons. Palmar: probably town, but so far without benefits. Most of D1 pops wasted on not quite getting him to the item and leaving VE open for a mob hit in the process. Tobon: extremely useless posts.
Town reads: WBG (actively scumhunting, good reads), risk.nuke (mainly due to his roleclaim with Ace's red light confirming)
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EBWOP: MrZentor is back. Hope more activity means we can expect a clarification on why you didn't PoP.
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Good morning. Had a quick glance through the thread and I am quite opposed to Cephiro's plan. I just don't trust the guy. If we believe risk.nuke's claim (and I still do) that means either Cephiro or Syllo is scum. Atm I'm leaning slightly to Syllo, but just plain statistics say we shouldn't bet on Cephiro. Pretty much everybody else has better chances of not being scum, so until Syllo is dead and confirmed red, I am not cooperating with anything Cephiro proposes.
Gonna read the rest of the thread now. I understand it's dark (and full of terrors). I can obviously get behind the bluelightz pulling. I have to get to work, but when I get there I'll read the thread more carefully and decide what to do (probably pull bluelightz).
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Let me phrase that a bit better: we have to take into account the very real possibility that Cephiro is scum.
If he's scum and we send him up there he gets: 1. An item 2. To activate whatever dastardly ability he has that requires him to be in the incineration zone (if I let my imagination run wild I can think of quite a few rather nasty ones, such as increase the size of the incineration zone). Because it's dark, we won't even know what he's doing until it's too late.
If he's town and we send him up there we get: 1. An item 2. To fulfill his masterplan of which we do not even know the rewards. Cephiro said that it helps town and probably gets Syllo killed.
While I like the town rewards and could probably get behind a Syllo kill, the rewards for scum are unknown, but probably better. Given the, lets say 40% chance that Cephiro is scum, the risk is just way too high.
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So, Cephiro: will your plan have any other benefits than killing Syllo (which we really don't need your masterplan for) and getting you the item (which I don't really want to do at this point)?
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Okay, I have read through the thread. The day lasts 48 hours. Why all the rush with pulling Bluelightz? I thought we agreed after yesterday to not spend our PoPs so hastily?
I think Bluelightz is almost certainly scum, but I am far more interested in getting the whole Syllo/Cephiro/risk.nuke mess sorted out. Can we wait with the bluelightz pulls until we've figured out a plan for that?
I'm still waiting for Cephiro to come up with a better explanation of why his plan benefits town (and as I explain below I am now actually very suspicious of him). Instead of his plan, I propose both Cephiro and Syllo get pulled off the bottom just to be sure. A 1:1 trade is generally good for town and the only chance it's not a 1:1 trade is if risk.nuke was lying, in which case he gets lynched tomorrow.
I have gone over Syllo and Cephiro's filter with a comb. Lets start with Cephiro: I find his assertions of why his plan is townie increasingly scummy the more I look at them.
He has a LOT of filler asserting that he's town and we should listen to him. Do I need to refer to the OP of jubjub mafia about why this is completely pointless posting? You can't prove your town by asserting it and the increased repetition is just making me suspicious: who are you trying to convince with this?
You get in a bitch fight with Syllo, which serves NOBODY. We are all almost certain that one, or both of you are scum and you two squabbling over it is completely useless and just clogs up the thread.
On to his reason for not revealing any details of the plan:
On April 04 2012 14:24 Cephiro wrote: If I provide my full role and plan, then it is very likely to backfire. However, if we have enough townies to co-ordinate to do it swiftly, then I will do that if that's an absolute must. It's for the best of town if I do not, and I would claim right after.
Okay, nobody wants the details of HOW it works, just WHAT it does and why that benefits more than just pushing Syllo (or actually, both of you) off the cliff. Your reluctance to say anything other than "it benefits town and will get Syllo dead" is not making me like your plan at all.
Next, I don't understand how he is not afraid of the nullify thingy that got Palmar stuck up there and his explanation of why not seems extremely dubious:
On April 04 2012 13:41 Cephiro wrote: Also, what do you others think about the nullify abillity? I have my reasons to believe it is very limited, at most 2-shot, most likely oneshot. If anyone can tell something about queue positions, you should come forth with the information as well, as I cannot see town getting hurt more than having a benefit of it. Pray tell us your "reasons to believe", oh enlightened one! Is it because it's a scum ability and this is a scumslip?
He also seems in an incredible rush to get this to happen before people have time to think it through. In fact, the one redeeming quality is that, if he's scum, I would've expected other mafia to get this bandwagon going, but that's too much wifom for me.
On to Syllo: yesterday I thought Sbrubbles was more likely to be scum than Syllo, but things have changed. Taken without what seems to be a serious scumslip by Cephiro, I would almost certainly label Syllo scum now that Sbrubbles flipped town. If we ignore, as he asks us to, his timing on the D1 PoPs, he has contributed a grand total of nothing to this thread. Some speculation on BM's roleclaim is the grand total of his scumhunting. Everything else is filler: he shows presence without actually doing anything useful. He has a somewhat useful dialogue with WBG, but it is only about why he isn't scum, no real contribution at all. Additionally, the same accusation of a giant bitchfight with Cephiro can be leveled at him: useless filler to pad his filter.
My opinion: we pull both of them off the cliff to ensure no mistakes. A 1:1 trade is good for town and, given their postings, we might even have two mafia here.
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On April 04 2012 08:17 Tobon wrote:Show nested quote +On April 04 2012 08:06 Acrofales wrote: Okay, I wanted to leave it until tomorrow, but it's probably worth the discussion, so here's my reads.
Leading the scumomenter are Sbrubbles and Bluelightz, for reasons posted earlier. [...] Tobon: extremely useless posts. You don't know how hard it is to resist replying to that with something extremely useless! So there, that part is extremely useless, now let's move on. How do you square Sbrubbles being number one on your scumometer now, with this post: Show nested quote +On April 03 2012 07:26 Acrofales wrote: No. I disagree with both lynches atm. The case on Syllo seems to be just meta and I don't know him long enough to say anything. In GoT mafia he was disinterested and played a similar style, but he was town there (of course, he was a hydra with Sandroba, so not a very good read). The case for Sbrubbles was that he's a lurker and hasn't done anything useful. He seems to be back and posting more actively. ... especially since Sbrubbles has posted even more actively after you wrote that? Heh, just found this gem. You really excell at making useless posts... I'm starting to agree more and more with the people who want to off you, but there are other priorities for the moment.
I might as well respond: I guess my suspicion of Sbrubbles was wrong, but yes, if you had taken the time to read the post I made about Sbrubbles, you would see why I found his later posts rather scummy. Instead you just decided to answer without reading.
I was wrong about him benig scum, he was just not much help to anybody. His case against Syllo came at a time when it was a 3-way suspicionfest between Sbrubbles, Syllo and Cephiro, so nothing anything any of them said about each other was going to be worth trusting. Other than that my suspcion of Sbrubbles over Syllo was based mainly on the fact that Syllo dealt well with the case against him and neither had contributed much of anything to the thread, so Sbrubbles seemed scummier. Syllo has now jumped up on my scumometer with Sbrubbles flipping green, but so has Cephiro (quite far and fast, I might mention. His plan and defense of it just reek of scumstink): I am now in favour of lynching both and getting at the very least a 1:1 trade out of it, and possibly more.
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On April 04 2012 19:50 Bluelightz wrote: Owww crap, the POTENTIALLY booby trapped positions are 2 and 24.
Okay... given the role of darkness in DFM1, why the FUCK would you say this? This makes no sense for scum OR town.
If you're scum, then you can say this to your darkness casting buddy in scumQT. The only reason to say this in the thread is so that town thinks you're helping them by saying something that is entirely useless to us.
If you're town, you just gave scum information they didn't have, which means you're incredibly stupid.
Given my policy that bad town play is almost always beneficial to scum I think we should definitely attempt to lynch three people today: bluelightz, cephiro and syllo.
I doubt we have enough pulls to get all three of them off the bottom, one of them will have to go into the fire. The only way we have of knowing someone is in the fire is if the item is picked up, which means we have to risk scum picking up the item, or having town go there first and then pushing a scum off the top edge afterwards.
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On April 04 2012 20:14 Bluelightz wrote:Show nested quote +On April 04 2012 20:01 Acrofales wrote:On April 04 2012 19:50 Bluelightz wrote: Owww crap, the POTENTIALLY booby trapped positions are 2 and 24. Okay... given the role of darkness in DFM1, why the FUCK would you say this? This makes no sense for scum OR town. If you're scum, then you can say this to your darkness casting buddy in scumQT. The only reason to say this in the thread is so that town thinks you're helping them by saying something that is entirely useless to us. If you're town, you just gave scum information they didn't have, which means you're incredibly stupid.Given my policy that bad town play is almost always beneficial to scum I think we should definitely attempt to lynch three people today: bluelightz, cephiro and syllo. I doubt we have enough pulls to get all three of them off the bottom, one of them will have to go into the fire. The only way we have of knowing someone is in the fire is if the item is picked up, which means we have to risk scum picking up the item, or having town go there first and then pushing a scum off the top edge afterwards. Me giving information to scum = Scum? Maybe your the one that's incredibly stupid...... In addition to being like 90% certainly scum, you have a problem reading conditionals? I state both possible cases. You're either scum, or a townie who might as well be scum for all the help you're giving them. Brb, I'm grabbing my pitchfork (although a torch would be more appropriate, given the circumstances).
While I'm at it, if you are serious about the positions of your bombs, might I point out that position 24 is a COMPLETELY USELESS place to put a bomb, regardless of alignment? Anybody who is on position 24 at the end of the day gets incinerated. All you achieve is that now they (maybe) get blown up, in addition to getting incinerated. Whoop-de-doop. Didn't you say your ability was intended to cost us LESS PoPs to kill people?
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On April 04 2012 22:59 Mr. Wiggles wrote: Has anybody claimed the kill on Palmar or Shrubbles yet? This is important to me. If you shot one of Palmar/Shrubbles, and haven't claimed yet, please do so. I won't be mad. I promise.
Hi guys, I'm mafia fishing for a vigilante so I can shoot him tonight, but I won't be mad. I promise!!!
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Okay, first things first: I am sorry. I completely misunderstood Bluelightz ability. I was making a very angry post at Cephiro for completely misrepresenting me and realized that Bluelightz' confused explanation had confused me, not Cephiro. Thanks for pointing that out, I derped.
What I thought Bluelightz' ability did was to let him choose 3 places, of which 1 was boobytrapped. He was told of 1 of the positions that was safe, leaving 2 possibly boobytrapped. I didn't understand it, but thought it might have something to do with the probabilities shifting if 3 spots are randomly chosen and one is guaranteed not to have a bomb. I was also wrong on that account as the Monty Hall problem is completely irrelevant for this.
I therefore apologize to Bluelightz and people should interpret my post as double facepalming myself.
That said, this only refers to the second part of my last post about Bluelightz' ability. His revealing the positions is still extremely scum-flavoured as in the darkness it is definitely not benefiting anybody in town, but could maybe benefit whoever cast the darkness ability.
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Now for the rest of Cephiro's post, I will respond in more detail in a second, but I need to point out that I am not worried if you're town. In that case I agree that the worst-case scenario is you get nullified up there, virtually guaranteeing Syllo's guilt. However, your complete lack of worry about getting nullified makes me lean towards you being scum. What I am worried about is what can happen if you're scum. I think we saw from DFM1 that this game can have very quick endings if we don't think things through. I put it in terms of risk/reward and you have not answered. Why should we push you up there? All you've given is "Syllo will die", well... we can kill Syllo without your help. What else is in it for us?
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+ Show Spoiler +On April 05 2012 01:18 Cephiro wrote:Going to filter quotes to try and reduce the wall of text that is going to happen. My 5 scumreads: syllogism, prplhz, cascades, Acrofales, Mattchew+ Show Spoiler +On April 04 2012 16:35 Acrofales wrote: Good morning. Had a quick glance through the thread and I am quite opposed to Cephiro's plan. I just don't trust the guy. If we believe risk.nuke's claim (and I still do) that means either Cephiro or Syllo is scum. Atm I'm leaning slightly to Syllo, but just plain statistics say we shouldn't bet on Cephiro. Pretty much everybody else has better chances of not being scum, so until Syllo is dead and confirmed red, I am not cooperating with anything Cephiro proposes.
Gonna read the rest of the thread now. I understand it's dark (and full of terrors). I can obviously get behind the bluelightz pulling. I have to get to work, but when I get there I'll read the thread more carefully and decide what to do (probably pull bluelightz). God you are flip-flopping fast. Do you want to know why I find this hilarious? Out of everyone in the game, only the ones that are in the 5 people i suspect to be scum have gone out and made a case on me. Are you actually that afraid of me, or are you trying to make me look bad by trying to make me look like I'm just OMGUSing?
Actually, you ARE OMGUSing. No town can have a reasonable doubt that you're town without being confirmed scum? How the hell does your logic work? I completely admit to switching my read on you 180º, but it has two clear reasons. The first is that I thought you were town, because I thought Sbrubbles was scum. Now that he's confirmed town, that leaves you and Syllo as scumspects.
Taking filters up until your crazy plan into account, I think Syllo is slightly more likely than you to be scum, but in comes reason two: your hairbrained plan, in which you refuse to explain the benefits. Let me put it this way: after all your intimations about a town-aligned masterplan and assuming you are town, if scum can stop you, they will stop you, so you might as well tell us all the effects of your plan (but leave out the details of how, if that will stop scum from interfering). Your paranoia against explaining more than "Syllo will die" and "it's good for town" made me, and is continuing to make me suspcious of your motives.
So, in closing, I don't really know which of you two is scum and I would rather not go along with a possible scumscheme, as it is almost certainly not to town's advantage.
+ Show Spoiler ++ Show Spoiler +On April 04 2012 16:53 Acrofales wrote: Let me phrase that a bit better: we have to take into account the very real possibility that Cephiro is scum.
If he's scum and we send him up there he gets: 1. An item 2. To activate whatever dastardly ability he has that requires him to be in the incineration zone (if I let my imagination run wild I can think of quite a few rather nasty ones, such as increase the size of the incineration zone). Because it's dark, we won't even know what he's doing until it's too late.
If he's town and we send him up there we get: 1. An item 2. To fulfill his masterplan of which we do not even know the rewards. Cephiro said that it helps town and probably gets Syllo killed.
While I like the town rewards and could probably get behind a Syllo kill, the rewards for scum are unknown, but probably better. Given the, lets say 40% chance that Cephiro is scum, the risk is just way too high. As said earlier, my plan is way in favour of town. The worst case scenario for town is that I die before we get to use the item, and my death will confirm syllo as scum, so 1:1 trade. Best case scenario, I survive and deliver you 2 scum kills. Or are you actually proposing that after seeing a nullify ability & darkness ability, that I could be some some sort of godlike superscum and get half the town killed by going into the incineration zone? A sacrifical mechanic would be far more likely than that. Is it so unlikely that scum has a power to... say... increase the size of the incineration zone by 3 positions? Especially if it's conditioned on getting into the fire? Given the darkness we have no clue how far we are from the incineration zone, but I'm sure that would get quite a few townies burned to a crisp. That is the worst somewhat balanced power I can think of, but Ace has more experience and could've thought up any number of strange powers.
As I stated in the quick post, your best and worst case are preconditioned upon YOU BEING TOWN, which is an assumption I am unwilling to make until Syllo is dead.
+ Show Spoiler ++ Show Spoiler +On April 04 2012 16:56 Acrofales wrote: So, Cephiro: will your plan have any other benefits than killing Syllo (which we really don't need your masterplan for) and getting you the item (which I don't really want to do at this point)? Read what I said, I did actually bring this up earlier as well but you clearly chose to ignore it. All i find in your filter is that it has town benefits and Syllo will die. Which is about as weak as an assurance can get. Thanks for nothing.
+ Show Spoiler ++ Show Spoiler +On April 04 2012 19:09 Dirkzor wrote: I think Cephiro's plan suck. Any plan we made yesterday was fucked and it will be the same today. (and the item is not even in the equation as the item suck. Its like a shiny objects that people really can't wait to dig up but it always turn out just be the opener from a soda can.)
I would like people to push Syllo. The fact that scum killed Palmar/Sbrubbles (or one of them) and not syllo is disturbing. Palmar had done shit all so killing him over Syllo makes no sense. I'm assuming Sbrubbles was a town hit becase the only reason I see scum killing Sbrubbles is if Syllo is indeed town. Risk's claim was/i believable even when poorly executed by him.
Mattchew is just a oneliner machine who follows whatever crazy plan anyone cooks up to appear to be helping town. If you haven't read, you will not need to save me out of the incineration area, which means you will be able to use your pulls to insta-kill someone by pulling them all the way down. Why would you push syllo, when you can push me and achieve the same? Or would you rather see syllo have the item? I can understand if you wanted to pull him, by pushing him especially after I've told my plan is just.... retarded. Also, agreed on Mattchew. For the love of god though, please read syllogism's filter and show me that he's been even trying to scumhunt. He hasn't done anything valuable for the town yet. We could pull Syllo and he wouldn't get the item. Why are you so fixated on pushing? As for his scumhunting, I agree, he has been completely utterly useless.
+ Show Spoiler ++ Show Spoiler +On April 04 2012 19:32 Acrofales wrote:Okay, I have read through the thread. The day lasts 48 hours. Why all the rush with pulling Bluelightz? I thought we agreed after yesterday to not spend our PoPs so hastily? I think Bluelightz is almost certainly scum, but I am far more interested in getting the whole Syllo/Cephiro/risk.nuke mess sorted out. Can we wait with the bluelightz pulls until we've figured out a plan for that? I'm still waiting for Cephiro to come up with a better explanation of why his plan benefits town (and as I explain below I am now actually very suspicious of him). Instead of his plan, I propose both Cephiro and Syllo get pulled off the bottom just to be sure. A 1:1 trade is generally good for town and the only chance it's not a 1:1 trade is if risk.nuke was lying, in which case he gets lynched tomorrow. I have gone over Syllo and Cephiro's filter with a comb. Lets start with Cephiro: I find his assertions of why his plan is townie increasingly scummy the more I look at them. He has a LOT of filler asserting that he's town and we should listen to him. Do I need to refer to the OP of jubjub mafia about why this is completely pointless posting? You can't prove your town by asserting it and the increased repetition is just making me suspicious: who are you trying to convince with this? You get in a bitch fight with Syllo, which serves NOBODY. We are all almost certain that one, or both of you are scum and you two squabbling over it is completely useless and just clogs up the thread. On to his reason for not revealing any details of the plan: Show nested quote +On April 04 2012 14:24 Cephiro wrote: If I provide my full role and plan, then it is very likely to backfire. However, if we have enough townies to co-ordinate to do it swiftly, then I will do that if that's an absolute must. It's for the best of town if I do not, and I would claim right after.
Okay, nobody wants the details of HOW it works, just WHAT it does and why that benefits more than just pushing Syllo (or actually, both of you) off the cliff. Your reluctance to say anything other than "it benefits town and will get Syllo dead" is not making me like your plan at all. Next, I don't understand how he is not afraid of the nullify thingy that got Palmar stuck up there and his explanation of why not seems extremely dubious: Show nested quote +On April 04 2012 13:41 Cephiro wrote: Also, what do you others think about the nullify abillity? I have my reasons to believe it is very limited, at most 2-shot, most likely oneshot. If anyone can tell something about queue positions, you should come forth with the information as well, as I cannot see town getting hurt more than having a benefit of it. Pray tell us your "reasons to believe", oh enlightened one! Is it because it's a scum ability and this is a scumslip? He also seems in an incredible rush to get this to happen before people have time to think it through. In fact, the one redeeming quality is that, if he's scum, I would've expected other mafia to get this bandwagon going, but that's too much wifom for me. On to Syllo: yesterday I thought Sbrubbles was more likely to be scum than Syllo, but things have changed. Taken without what seems to be a serious scumslip by Cephiro, I would almost certainly label Syllo scum now that Sbrubbles flipped town. If we ignore, as he asks us to, his timing on the D1 PoPs, he has contributed a grand total of nothing to this thread. Some speculation on BM's roleclaim is the grand total of his scumhunting. Everything else is filler: he shows presence without actually doing anything useful. He has a somewhat useful dialogue with WBG, but it is only about why he isn't scum, no real contribution at all. Additionally, the same accusation of a giant bitchfight with Cephiro can be leveled at him: useless filler to pad his filter. My opinion: we pull both of them off the cliff to ensure no mistakes. A 1:1 trade is good for town and, given their postings, we might even have two mafia here. First, the point about me somewhat constantly saying I am town. I don't see what's wrong with that. I know I am town and I have no reason to hide it either. Would you rather have me type in conditional every single time? There is no point for me to speculate that I could be scum in every message of mine as I know I am town, and you know it too. So you don't want a roleclaim but you still want to know what my ability does? Well, I'll make it simple for you. It gets scum killed.You also blame me for cluttering the thread up with syllo. Sure, that may be slightly true, but if that's the only way I'm going to convince you guys of getting syllo killed, then so be it. I'm here to kill scum, not to play diplomatics. Also I found it hilarious how you use the same arguments on me as syllogism did. You both keep pointing out how I am not afraid of being nullified, and trying to find out why. Why would you try to find out the reason unless you were scum trying to stop me? You couldn't be much more obvious. Especially since you all use the same poor arguments on me. The thing about people confirming they're town is more of a psychological meta-argument for me. People tend to try to confirm their lies more than the truths. They are confident enough in the truths that they don't need to repeat them. Note, I am not a psychologist, but I picked that stuff up somewhere and it stuck (maybe even a TV show).
Okay, it bugged me, I looked it up. It was Goebbels, famous nazi propagandist who said "repeat a lie often enough and it will be believed".
I think I've said often enough that "getting scum killed" is all very well, but seeing as your scum reads are basically "everybody who is against my plan is scum", that is pretty damned dubious. Care telling us how many scum you'll get killed and preferrably WHO it will get killed (in addition to Syllo)? If it's just Syllo, I ask you once again, why should we push you up there, rather than just pulling Syllo off the edge? You keep refusing to answer that question. Also, pushing Syllo is pretty risk-free too: we wait for lots of people and pool our pushes. Those that can't get used are refunded (like happened to WBG's push on Palmar on D1).
+ Show Spoiler ++ Show Spoiler +On April 04 2012 20:15 syllogism wrote: It doesn't seem possible to even kill ceph today as assuming the nullifying power can be used more than once, scum will just nullify him after we've wasted PoPs on him. Even if they can't do that, he may not be lying about having some sort of power that allows him to switch places in the queue. Look at this gem of a post by syllogism. His only post when he checks the thread is about trying to place suspicion on me. I repeat, he has not and is clearly not going to do anything useful for the town. Is it that hard for you all to see that he hasn't been scumhunting at all? No. I think there's a pretty good chance he's scum. If you hadn't cherrypicked my post, you would have discovered that all by yourself. However, that is not enough to exculpate you and until Syllo is confirmed scum, there's a considerable chance we were wrong. Helping you achieve something that could be a scumscheme thus seems needlessly risky at this point. We have things well in hand without some crazy plan.
[spoiler][quote] + Show Spoiler +On April 04 2012 20:16 cascades wrote: Cephiro you complain about Syllo speculating about mafia powers that might need pop to activate, then you go ahead and speculate that its unlikely there's no mafia framer?
More importantly, you also softclaim that implies syllo is mod confirmed red. You backed out of it after people called you out, since you still need to have powers to get yourself out of incineration somehow. Doesn't excuse the scummy softclaim.
I am really curious about the plan now. I want to hear it. You have to justify better before we help you. There's a chance you scum in our eyes.
You've heard the plan and all there is to it. Do you have a reason to believe there is a mafia framer then? Also, you claim that I complained about syllo's speculation about scum powers that may need PoP to activate. This is false however, as I was only asking him questions to specify what he means. Why are you trying to make it look bad for me?
The rest of the post is about bluelightz. I have already stated where I was wrong in understanding his ability. You say there are better people to lynch than bluelightz. I agree: you and Syllo. Who, other than Syllo and yourself, is currently a better target than bluelightz? Your list includes cascades, prplhz and Mattchew (other than syllo and myself). Mind making a case on anyone other than Syllo, that is NOT based on our unwillingness to promote your plan?
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On April 05 2012 02:25 wherebugsgo wrote:Show nested quote +On April 05 2012 02:21 Nemesis wrote:On April 05 2012 02:13 wherebugsgo wrote: Yo nemesis, why did you hulk smash Tobon so early? Why didn't you wait to discuss it?
At this point I lean scum on Tobon but he's lower on the list of "needs to flip" than, for example, syllo or Bluelightz. Flipping all 3 could be a dangerous proposition. I say we continue pulling Bluelightz and we decide soon whether to push Cephiro or push someone like Tobon.
There's also a strong chance we could push both, but then the question remains of whether to push Cephiro first or kill Tobon first. Because it makes it easier to push him and actually makes him a real lynch candidate as very few people seem to be looking at him. I'm pretty sure he's scum at this point as the only thing that he has really done this game is rolefish. You're probably right, and I could be overly worried simply because we haven't properly flipped anyone yet. I'm most concerned with getting that first scum killed because that'll at least give confirmation that we're on the right track. Perhaps I just lack confidence. I don't want to split the votes too much, but at the same time I want to kill 3 people today (syllo, Tobon, and Bluelightz). I'm really curious about this Cephiro thing and I'm very close to just pushing him as well. I can get with the lynch candidates. I just don't know why we want to go with Cephiro's plan for that. We have the almost-confirmed townie if Syllo flips red IN ANY CASE (otherwise we lynch Cephiro first thing tomorrow and thank the gods we didn't go along with his plan). Why take needless risks in pushing someone who has a very real possibility of being scum up to wherever he wants to go?
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On April 05 2012 03:05 wherebugsgo wrote: Alright, I think this is the solution: we push Cephiro to the item slot. If he gets frozen, we push syllo (we should have enough to push both). Any remaining pushes will go on Tobon AFTER it is confirmed one or both of Cephiro+syllo is dead (hopefully syllo)
If the freezing power exists still, no matter who we push scum will freeze the player and make our efforts fruitless. Thus ultimately I imagine we'd need to push both players. If we push syllo and then scum freeze syllo, we then have to rely on Cephiro getting to the item, but if he's roleblocked at that point we lose even more pushes. If we force a roleblock on Cephiro then we can still pull him back to safety and push someone else toward the fire.
Anyone who does not push according to this plan at this point needs to have a very good reason for it. If you have questions, ask now. I intend for syllo, Bluelightz, and Tobon to all die today.
We can potentially swap Tobon for someone else like mattchew, prpl, or Wiggles, but I'd much rather push Tobon because Nemesis already started a push on him, and he is just as scummy.
Here goes nothing.
##push Cephiro I think I asked in time, but you pushed anyway. Why are you so extremely convinced of Cephiro's townieness? I'm way in favour of just straight lynching. The only thing we miss out on is an item. So bloody what?
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On April 05 2012 02:46 wherebugsgo wrote: What I can't reconcile though is that rarely are scum so in-your-face as Cephiro is, and if they are they usually cause a lot of disruption. Cephiro doesn't seem to be trolling us or trying to cause disruption, and it's no secret there is a scum between him, syllo, and risk. In addition he has pointed out a couple of things that I don't think scum would have pointed out. It's true that he could be scum, and if he is, he's been playing very well so far.
The thing though is, IF he's scum, this is a very risky proposition for him, because it ensures he dies after syllo flips town. You agree with that? Now my question is, why would scum put themselves at such great risk just to trade 1 for 1 with someone else?
Worst IMO is that two of them die and flip town.
What's stopping me from pushing Cephiro is that the possibility of him having a scum role that benefits from this still exists. Based on the knowledge we have (which isn't much) it is a better proposition to simply straight up kill syllo, because we have no clue what pushing Cephiro will do. however the pushing of syllo relies on the assumption that syllo is scum, which makes Cephiro far more likely to be town. So in that case we should consider Cephiro is actually telling the truth and push him anyway. in other words, since the basic assumption is the same, it may be better to just push Cephiro after all. Okay, barring some extremely strange circumstance in which risk's roleclaim and the red traffic light are NOT the police car toy from DFM1, Cephiro is confirmed scum if Syllo flips town in any case and I don't think anybody is opposed to killing Syllo here and now. So I don't see how this plan by a scumbag is at all risky.
So you actually wifom'd the wifom out of that in the subsequent part. Did you actually read that? I will condense the second part of your post for you:
1. Cephiro might be scum, which is a reason not to push him and just kill Syllo (okay so far) 2. However, that relies on the assumption that Syllo is scum (err, okay. I disagree. It will confirm him as scum. I think there's probably about 60-70% chance of him being scum at this point) 3. In which case Cephiro is town (errrmmm, okay, probably. You feeling the wifom yet? I am fairly certain that a smart guy would know that I would know that he would put the wine in front of me) 4. BUT THEN Cephiro is telling the TRUTH and he's town (lol, I am seeing Inigo Montoya's pokerface right now) 5. In which case we should comply with his plan (LOOK BEHIND YOU, A three-headed monkey! /switchcups)
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