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What is the mafia KP formula?
Did anyone take a hit last night? If not, its not unreasonable to think that rg was hit twice. I highly doubt that the anti-town KP is only 1. While mafia doublestacking RG is unlikely, its possible both SK and mafia went after him independently.
However until I hear ACKT come up with an explanation,
##Vote A Killer Cup of Tea
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On March 05 2012 04:57 Jackal58 wrote:Show nested quote +On March 05 2012 00:57 deconduo wrote: What is the mafia KP formula?
Did anyone take a hit last night? If not, its not unreasonable to think that rg was hit twice. I highly doubt that the anti-town KP is only 1. While mafia doublestacking RG is unlikely, its possible both SK and mafia went after him independently.
However until I hear ACKT come up with an explanation,
##Vote A Killer Cup of Tea Speculation does nothing for us. rg was one of the most active voices day 1. Activity level in this game is amazingly low. I know my level is as bad or worse than anybodies. Prior commitments are now out of the way. Adam are you going to do anything other than defend Sandroba, fish for blues and call me out for my disbelief in Misder being lynched by 3 people? http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=315210&user=192320Adam is scum.
Yeah the fact that AKCT claimed vanilla means its irrelevant. One of them is scum so we lynch AKCT today. The last thing we need to do today is to go inactive though. We can't let the discussion die just because we've caught one mafia.
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On March 05 2012 06:12 Pandain wrote:AKCT is town. I was just seeing how he reacted :<. He was the second most suspicious person I had, so I just decided to pressure him a little. What he did was opposite of mafia. If he was mafia, he would have claimed to have a blue role, not a vanilla townie. Instead, he's been actively offering the right thing to do in his situation(if town): Lynch him, and then lynch me. If he's SK the situation is a little different, but still points to him as town. He's perfectly alright with being lynched( when he CAN'T as SK if he wants to live.) So basically now, in my opinion, AKCT is 100% town. + Show Spoiler + basically im not watcher/tracker unless im pulling epic mindfuck games
You do realise this doesn't work. The ploy tells us nothing about his alignment except that he probably didn't kill RG. Unless he actually did visit rg last night, he would know you are lying. All you've done is waste a day.
##Unvote
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On March 05 2012 08:37 Paperscraps wrote:Ok so Sandroba claims vet or saved by medic. Why would Sandroba have been targeted as all last night? I don't think a medic would have been on Sandroba either. Thus that leaves the vet claim. Honestly I think Sandroba is SK that is claiming a fake hit. Show nested quote +On March 05 2012 07:44 Probulous wrote:On March 04 2012 14:15 Adam4167 wrote: Since you've claimed blue already, can you tell me if you Tracked AKCT or if you Watched rgTheSchworz? I assume its the latter, but id like to know for sure. What use does that answer provide to town? The only possible thing I can think of is that he didn't believe Pandain and was using this as a way of getting him to possibly slip up. Pandain had announced his suspicion of AKCT so it makes sense for him to follow him. I don't see why watching RG would necessarily be more likely. As I previously stated it was obvious that RG claims were bogus from a simple read of his filter. Even if you disregard the above, why ask? I read guilty concience here. Mafia shot RG and wanted to find out if they had been caught. If Pandain claims he tracked AKCT, no harm done. If he claims he watched RG they can counterclaim because they know they were the one's who were shot RG. Thus Pandain was either lying or he knows they are scum. They know that he knows. Thus the only possible way out is to counterclaim as soon as possible with more information. It is a scummy scummy question. ##vote Adam4167 Probulous this makes no sense. It is reasonable to wonder what role Pandain might have been. A watcher on rg the first night makes complete sense, since rg was soft claiming vig, whether you believed him or not. No I gather you are wondering that if maybe mafia hit and roleblocked rg, then Adam's question would show some concern. We have know way of knowing that. Also Adam has been towntelling recently. I don't think he is scum. Show nested quote +On March 05 2012 07:40 deconduo wrote:On March 05 2012 06:12 Pandain wrote:AKCT is town. I was just seeing how he reacted :<. He was the second most suspicious person I had, so I just decided to pressure him a little. What he did was opposite of mafia. If he was mafia, he would have claimed to have a blue role, not a vanilla townie. Instead, he's been actively offering the right thing to do in his situation(if town): Lynch him, and then lynch me. If he's SK the situation is a little different, but still points to him as town. He's perfectly alright with being lynched( when he CAN'T as SK if he wants to live.) So basically now, in my opinion, AKCT is 100% town. + Show Spoiler + basically im not watcher/tracker unless im pulling epic mindfuck games You do realise this doesn't work. The ploy tells us nothing about his alignment except that he probably didn't kill RG. Unless he actually did visit rg last night, he would know you are lying. All you've done is waste a day. ##Unvote Deconduo is scum or just bad at this game. Both AKCT and Pandain are definitely more town than before.Mafia would have counter-claimed as a PR not a vanilla townie. AKCT reacted very well to this. ##Vote: Deconduo
Hi again mister tunnel.
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On March 05 2012 13:47 Probulous wrote:Show nested quote +On March 05 2012 13:23 Adam4167 wrote:On March 05 2012 08:37 Paperscraps wrote: Ok so Sandroba claims vet or saved by medic. Why would Sandroba have been targeted as all last night? I don't think a medic would have been on Sandroba either. Thus that leaves the vet claim. Honestly I think Sandroba is SK that is claiming a fake hit.
Theres an option 3 here. Sandroba is an SK that is claiming a real hit (from the mafia): On February 25 2012 12:25 Mr. Wiggles wrote: Serial Killer: You are a Serial Killer! Each night, starting night 1, you may send in a night hit. In addition, you have one extra night life.
I thought of this but this quote makes me less certain. Show nested quote +On March 03 2012 17:12 sandroba wrote: Wait for me to kill bitches b4 you shoot me thx If he was SK he wouldn't be worried about getting shot. We haven't had a vig claim the shot so it could only have come from mafia which makes zero sense. Why target someone who was the leading vote getter the day before? No I think he was a saved by a medic. I agree with Paperscraps that a town medic saving Sandroba is just not credible. So we are left with veteran or mafia medic. He was under pressure and was worried about dying so a mafia medic protect makes sense. His way of claiming the shot doesn't ring Vet to me. Vets normally celebrate when they are shot.
Why would he be worried about getting shot if he knew he had a medic to save him? In fact, I think SK is far far more likely as they would have the most to lose by getting shot; losing their night life. A mafia with a medic to back them up is basically immune to night hits, so shouldn't be worried at all.
##Vote Sandroba
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On March 06 2012 07:43 Pandain wrote: There's no reason to vote sandroba, he's not scum(no resistance at all)so that leaves either sk or town. Rather than vote him, we should merely track him. This will effectively negate any chance of him shooting again. I do believe he's sk but feel this is A better alternative as it encompasses all the reasons we would want to lynch sk without the risk of lynching town. We should use today instead as an opportunity to lynch scum.
I agree that he isn't scum, but he's almost certainly SK. We're better off lynching him now, rather than letting him get another shot off.
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Adam: -Probulous is definitely town, amd he's trying to push a case against him. -Defended Sandroba Day 2 -Voted Sandroba when there was no chance to save him. -Considered Palmar confirmed town Night 2, then Palmar dies. -Jackal read him as scum. Now obviously Jackal isn't infallible, but he did flip town and he's a decent enough scumhunter. Its certainly worth considering his opinion.
Conclusion: Scum
Paper: -Paper has been tunelling me since Day 1. He says he's convinced I'm scum -He thinks Jackal is scum by association -He doesn't shoot me Night 1 -He doesn't shoot me Night 2 -He shoots Jackal Night 2 -He claims the kill AFTER the day post
This makes absolutely no sense to me. If he is a vig, why not shoot me? Why claim after the day post instead of before? If he is scum/SK, why claim the kill? Given the missing KP, I'm inclined to think Paper is SK, and was worried about being tracked. Jackal was a blue read for me, which would explain why Paper would go after him. When none of the bodies flipped Tracker, he claimed the shot figuring if he didn't he'd lynched on the spot if he had been tracked. Its a bit of a stretch, but I can't see anything else that makes more sense. It also explains why he would wait for the day post.
Conclusion: SK
I'm gonna go over Palmar's post in Day 2 to see if he breadcrumbed anything. Hopefully if he did it isn't too obscure. Back in couple of hours.
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On March 07 2012 20:08 Probulous wrote: Decon do you think it likely we have both a watcher and a tracker? Seems a stretch to me but could be true. That would give us a watcher, tracker and medic(probably). If you're assuming a SK too that is a lot of power roles in such a small setup but I guess they are more weak than usual.
I agree that Paper's decision to shoot Jackal over you needs explaining. Makes sense from a mafia point of view to keep you around if they think they can lynch you. I still think Adam is a better bet for today's lynch.
From phone
In most setups like this the watcher functions as a medic role rather than detective. So you'd have a Tracker+Watcher or Tracker+Medic. That way if the Tracker claims, he can be protected by the Medic or Watcher. If mafia try to kill him he either gets saved or the killer gets seen by the Watcher.
I don't think its a stretch to think we'd have a Tracker + Watcher but no medic. However, what I think doesn't really matter, its what Paper thought at the day post. He claimed exactly one minute after the post, so he didn't have time to think about his decision. He was obviously waiting for something, and was going base his claim on the contents of the day post.
At this point I think lynching Paper might be a better choice. If he is SK:
-We drop anti-town KP by 1 guaranteed. -It removes any kingmaker scenarios. -Scum are down one member already.
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On March 08 2012 04:05 Paperscraps wrote: Last night was the only time I shot. I find it surprising that people would think I am mafia/SK just blatantly announcing my kills all of a sudden, when mafia/SK tend to try and hide and blend. I guess that is WIFOM, but what benefits do I have in claiming I shot some one as mafia/SK? Don't give me some crap about how I could have been tracked or something. My claim wasn't a reaction to anyone calling me out. I claimed this way so that if I was tracked or something, the PR can stay hidden and not have to out their report.
##Vote Paperscraps
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On March 08 2012 06:06 Snarfs wrote: decon, besides Paper, who else do you think could be SK?
If Paper isn't SK, he's scum or there isn't an SK. I don't think scum would play like paper is playing so I haven't really considered that situation tbh, Considering that if there is an SK, he shot sandro and knew his hit claim was legit, I'd say Adam or Pandain.. Their reaction to the Sanrdro lynch sways me that way.
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On March 08 2012 03:09 Paperscraps wrote: Note Decon's hesitance to vote Adam, after he calls him scum.
I'm not hesitant to vote Adam, I'd just prefer to lynch you instead. Adam is my 2nd choice of lynch today, but dropping anti-town KP is more important right now.
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On March 08 2012 08:04 Probulous wrote: If nothing else note his persistance in trying to clear his name. He is clearly frustrated but is putting in the effort to try and make his thinking clear. Compare that to Adam, who is apparently still too busy to participate. Decon I agree it would be nice to lower KP with a SK lynch but I don't believe that Paper is the SK (if we have one). We lynch Adam today.
I can deal with that.
##Unvote ##Vote Adam4167
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On March 08 2012 09:27 Adam4167 wrote: Trying to draw conclusions from a possible scum-team involving me will ultimately fail, because i am going to flip town in around 24 hours.
The assumption that anyone voting for someone you have a town read on must be scum, is just flat out stupid.
I don't hate paper for voting me, it was me or him when he did, so that's an obvious choice.
I suggest everyone take a hard look at AKCT, who's posted even less then bluelightz after being 'confirmed town'. He also claimed 'vanilla townie', which is inconsistent with the role in the OP 'townie'. Palmar did the same thing, he flipped blue, but I don't think AKCT will.
Snarfs, find me a mafia that actually admits he hasn't been contributing, and ill show you an idiot. Mafia deflect or misdirect. I do think Pandain is town hence why I didn't attack him. Why his read has shifted towards me, that is not something I can answer, you can ask him.
Deconduo, your 'case' against me is terrible. Its filled with confirmation bias. Palmar was the obvious choice to die on N2 since he was clearly town and probably not just a plain townie. Jackal's read is wrong, he clearly wasn't putting much into this game, why would you expect his read to be even close to right?
If we had a medic that wasn't on Palmar N2 after leading the sandroba lynch, then hes useless. I would go as far as to say you should lynch anyone that even claims medic for that. If there's a medic, its a Medic, because I really don't see a town medic being stupid enough to protect sandroba N1.
I led the Sandroba lynch day 2. Palmar wanted to lynch AKCT, but I convinced him to switch to sandroba: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=315210¤tpage=21#413
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EBWOP: You are right about one thing though, AKCP has been hardcore lurking.
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On March 08 2012 12:55 Adam4167 wrote: ##Vote Bluelightz
On March 08 2012 13:26 A Killer Cuppa Tea wrote: It is a wonderous thing to see, when a scum finally realises that he should bus, but far, far too late.
On March 08 2012 18:14 Bluelightz wrote: Hmm, I think that there is that chance of Adam is town......
On March 08 2012 18:19 Adam4167 wrote:Show nested quote +On March 08 2012 18:14 Bluelightz wrote: Hmm, I think that there is that chance of Adam is town......
You're right and if you were scum, you'd be sailing me down the river right now. So I think you're town. ##Unvote
Could you guys BE any more obvious.
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On March 04 2012 20:33 Palmar wrote: There is no sensible reason to disbelieve pandain's claim, so AKCT is going to have to claim. Now, he can't really claim medic because the chances of scum double stacking rgTS on night 1 seem very slim.
If he claims vig we lynch him, because that shot was beyond stupid.
so what's left are the tracker and the watcher. I just don't think we have multiple of those in such a small setup. He can't exactly claim watcher either because that way he'd know who visited rgTS, so I guess he's going to counterclaim tracker or something? Or try to make us believe we have more than one?
For this reason I am going to disbelieve any claim he claims. The only reasonable claim for him from a balance/viability standpoint i claiming watcher and point to a random townie and getting that player lynched, but in this case we lynch him anyway, and before we lynch the guy he points a finger at.
Pretty sure the was Palmar breadcrumbing his watcher claim. I can't find any Night 1 result breadcrumb though. Possibly this:
On March 07 2012 09:05 Palmar wrote: I am a soft kitty
On March 07 2012 09:07 Palmar wrote:sometimes I just wanna cuddle
But thats either spam or too cryptic for me.
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On March 09 2012 06:16 Pandain wrote:Before I go on, I want everyone to remember that this is the work of 24 hours of constant lurking, re reading, re-re reading, going through each filter again and again, rereading thread in entirety, and even night time pondering. I don't believe Paperscraps. I feel people are beliving he is town merely because he claimed vig. Everyone seems to have forgotten this role.... Show nested quote +On February 25 2012 12:25 Mr. Wiggles wrote:
Vigilante: You are a Vigilante! Once per game, starting night 1, you may send in a night hit.
This doesn't mean its scum, but it does make us remember that there are now three possibilities for Paperscraps to be: 1. Serial killer.2. Mafia Vigilante 3. Vigilante Him claiming vigilante in no way makes him town. Rather, we must analyze two things in determining his alignment: 1. His reasoning/motivation behind shooting Jackal 2. His posts/votes this game(Normal Analysis) I'll be posting more once I make sense of everything.....
Don't forget 4. Mafia Goon/Medic
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On March 09 2012 06:28 Pandain wrote: Decondou I think your town and value your opinion, what do you make of paperscraps claim?
SK. If not SK, probably town, because there's no way his mafia parter(s) would allow him to make a claim as dumb as that. However given his play and the fact that the KP adds up, I'm pretty sure he's SK.
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Any medic that isn't on probulous is an idiot.
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On March 10 2012 08:50 Probulous wrote:Show nested quote +On March 10 2012 08:15 Pandain wrote: I'm the only guy who pushes against lynching adam, and you guys suspect me more. Oh my god........ I don't even know how paper scraps thinks that I have to be blue. That's patently untrue. Yes you pushed for a Paperscraps lynch but you never defended Adam. When I asked you outright whether you were still suspicious of Adam, you wrote ( linky) Show nested quote +On March 09 2012 08:42 Pandain wrote: Theres no one else besides Adam really. ... Basically my suspicions go like this: Paper, Adam, bluelightz+ akct. This post ( linky) where you make your case against Paper has only this to say about Adam. Show nested quote +On March 09 2012 11:04 Pandain wrote: The case is better , far better , then Adam, that's why I'm voting him. We can lynch Adam tommorow. So no, you were not pushing against an Adam lynch. You don't get credit for trying to save him because you obviously thought he was scum. As far as I can see the only one who does get some credit is bluelightz. Decon what are your thoughts on Pandain?
If it was a normal player, he would be 2nd on my scumlist after paper. However its Pandain who rolls a dice to decide what to do each day: 1. Claim mafia 2. Claim tracker 3. Lurk 4. Spam 5. Lose the game 6. Win the game
I've never been able to read him properly, its what makes him a meh town player but a deceptively dangerous mafia player. If I was to go with my gut I'd say town. However the only way to know for sure is when he flips.
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