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On December 22 2011 11:47 GMarshal wrote:Show nested quote +On December 22 2011 11:42 LSB wrote: Hmm... I just realized that deing is problematic, I'll claim
I am the Overly righteous Vigilante. I have one bullet, however if I shoot a townie I commit suicide
What does this mean for you? Right before day tomorrow I will announce who I shot. If the person is townie and I'm still alive, feel free to lynch me. However I'm pretty accurate with my shots, so it will probably be red, and then you can judge me again.
What if I'm mafia? Well either way there will be one dead red by tomorrow, so it all works out for town. Lies! Do you know how I know you are lying? I have that same role. Its not called Overly Righteous Viglante, its called Justice vigilante. I took the precaution of crumbing it earlier with the picture + Show Spoiler +which is the first result you get when searching "justice". Therefore you are lying scum. ##Unvote ##Vote: LSB RE: GM's role
This is the quote wherein the claims are made about GM's role are made. I see nothing about his shot not going through and both his and LSB's imply that he takes his life out of a need for justice AFTER he has committed murder.
By contrast, if GM is honest about his shot choice and he DOES pick a mafia, he has the potential to have his shot protected by a doc, his powers blocked, or something else. The only question here would be why would GM call that he's going to call his shot, and you'll find that the answer to that is trivial.
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On December 23 2011 15:07 kitaman27 wrote:Show nested quote +On December 23 2011 15:01 L wrote:On December 23 2011 14:39 kitaman27 wrote:On December 23 2011 14:32 L wrote: GM seems to have lied about his target in order to lessen the chance that his shot would be medic'd/intercepted/roleblocked/whatevered. His target was probably one of his greens to throw off suspicion, so he probably didn't shoot Jackal. Palmar's shot was claimed.
This means GM either shot VisceraEyes or SamuelLJackson
I'm gonna go back and look through his post list to see if he gave any indication of suspicion with respect to either of them. If that was the case, why in the world would GM not inform us who he really shot after the 12:00 deadline? He had around 20 minutes to share who he really would have shot, during a time which the scum team wouldn't be able to change their actions. Are you purposely trying to shift focus away from RoL or something? @RoL,did you receive any notification of receiving a hit? Why wouldn't he? Withholding the information until the last second is a hyper pro-town move. Mafia don't need any additional information and his list is perfectly legible when you recognize that he lied about the RoL shot. That doesn't make sense at all. GM knows he is a suicide vig, so why would he leave it a mystery to who he really shot? He knows that it is highly likely that he will die if his shot is wrong. He wouldn't leave us in the dark knowing that he would likely never have a chance to reveal his true target. That wouldn't be a hyper pro-town move in the slightest. RE: Leaving us in the dark.
He didn't. Please read and account for the hits before you wander off into magical fairy land.
Account for every single one. Why did people die? Who killed them? What are people likely to be lying about? Why?
Its something like 95% certain he shot Visc, 4% potential he shot hydra, maybe 1% that he shot Jackal.
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RE: People who argue like second graders.
Alright, here's a challenge to people who think GM did NOT lie about who he shot.
Give me a good explanation why every person who died, died. Do not bother trying to nitpick anything I've said until that point, otherwise it'll be pretty obvious that you're scum trying to muddy the waters because my analysis tells us WHO they shot, which allows us to go find out WHY.
I'll be waiting.
Annnnnd Go!
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RE: Chaoser
Just to make your life harder, I just remembered this post:
On December 22 2011 11:49 LSB wrote: Because Ver would defiantly put a duplicate of the same role in a game....
Wana test? I'll shoot you tonight if you wish, if you're town, we both die, if your mafia, you're probably too scared to face my shot
A shot on a townie kills both.
You're claiming have mafia with 3 kp, still don't know why Jackal died and now can't explain why RoL isn't dead.
Try again.
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On December 23 2011 15:42 chaoser wrote: Ok, you bring up a good point. I'll have to retread the whole claiming part of day 1 tomorrow but I still don't understand why gm would feel the need to lie at midnight, when all the actions have been set in stone and a lie would just confuse the town instead of being clean and simple. I feel like a more valid reason for the kills would be that a bus driver bussed his kill but that's also just speculation. RE: Bus driver
Bus driver's possible, but the end result with respect to who mafia killed doesn't change, so it becomes entirely irrelevant whether or not he lied, only whether or not he shot Visc. If anyone bussed Visc/RoL they're either delusional or mafia, which means mafia has a bus driver.
Which means this game is fucking broken. We can't call shots to confirm anyone. Roles like GM and LSB's can be rerouted with mafia knowledge of who's innocent to change a shot against mafia to a double townie kill. The only way of obtaining proper information about a shooter would be to have at least 3 people shoot during a night.
But that's kinda beyond the fact. A driver is an assured +3 for mafia with a single night action. I hope you recognize that even hatters typically don't have that much firepower (3 bomb hatters are a +2 swing and take the entire game to set up). The only night action I've seen do more than a 3 kill swing for a team was the Murrayitis plague, but there were at least five plague related roles acting across 3-4(5?) days in the game that had to engineer the beautiful destruction that we set up for that one.
RE: RoL
I'm not claiming EITHER lied about their role. If LSB's role wasn't the same as GM's GM wouldn't have had a need to continue pushing him and would have said "oh shit, we DONT have the same role". But that's not the case.
Nothing in ANY of LSBs or GMs post indicate that their vig shots do not work vs townies, with LSB basing his plea on the very fact that it does. GM replied to this very point without commenting on it.
RE: GGQ
So, you have VE shooting GM, who would die or confirm himself as green during the night. No. You also have 3 mafia KP per day which leads to LyLo on day 2 with a single missed justice vig. Double No.
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On December 23 2011 16:59 GGQ wrote:Show nested quote +On December 23 2011 16:32 L wrote:On December 23 2011 15:42 chaoser wrote: Ok, you bring up a good point. I'll have to retread the whole claiming part of day 1 tomorrow but I still don't understand why gm would feel the need to lie at midnight, when all the actions have been set in stone and a lie would just confuse the town instead of being clean and simple. I feel like a more valid reason for the kills would be that a bus driver bussed his kill but that's also just speculation. RE: Bus driver Bus driver's possible, but the end result with respect to who mafia killed doesn't change, so it becomes entirely irrelevant whether or not he lied, only whether or not he shot Visc. If anyone bussed Visc/RoL they're either delusional or mafia, which means mafia has a bus driver. Which means this game is fucking broken. We can't call shots to confirm anyone. Roles like GM and LSB's can be rerouted with mafia knowledge of who's innocent to change a shot against mafia to a double townie kill. The only way of obtaining proper information about a shooter would be to have at least 3 people shoot during a night. But that's kinda beyond the fact. A driver is an assured +3 for mafia with a single night action. I hope you recognize that even hatters typically don't have that much firepower (3 bomb hatters are a +2 swing and take the entire game to set up). The only night action I've seen do more than a 3 kill swing for a team was the Murrayitis plague, but there were at least five plague related roles acting across 3-4(5?) days in the game that had to engineer the beautiful destruction that we set up for that one. RE: RoL I'm not claiming EITHER lied about their role. If LSB's role wasn't the same as GM's GM wouldn't have had a need to continue pushing him and would have said "oh shit, we DONT have the same role". But that's not the case. Nothing in ANY of LSBs or GMs post indicate that their vig shots do not work vs townies, with LSB basing his plea on the very fact that it does. GM replied to this very point without commenting on it. RE: GGQ So, you have VE shooting GM, who would die or confirm himself as green during the night. No. You also have 3 mafia KP per day which leads to LyLo on day 2 with a single missed justice vig. Double No. typo by me, I have 2 mafia KP just like you (hydra and jackal). I just have VE shooting GM instead of GM shooting VE (both die either way). Also GM would not have been confirmed if he was roleblocked, which I believe he was and which I think was fairly predictable if a roleblocker exists. VE may have been trying to avoid GM claiming roleblock and town wondering whether to believe him or lynch him. Most importantly, what is your explanation for why GM would lie about his shot target AFTER the deadline? In that case your analysis is completely irrelevant. The determination of who shot who is to find out which hits were controlled by mafia to determine WHY they shot who they shot.
As for assuming GM needed to be roleblocked, then shot by someone who had zero incentive to do so, cool beans, that's retarded.
Why would GM lie? Because hosts do not instantly conjure up day posts, and the day transition time is ALWAYS delayed if certain roles hold their abilities to the last minute. Hosts additionally need to PM people with information regarding their night action prior to the start of day.
Like, has no one run a game before or played careful attention to one? How is this news to people? The fact that so many people who should know better jumped on this assumption is SUPER sketchy, but I'm not done looking through past games to see posting times yet.
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On December 24 2011 01:20 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:Show nested quote +On December 23 2011 16:32 L wrote:On December 23 2011 15:42 chaoser wrote: Ok, you bring up a good point. I'll have to retread the whole claiming part of day 1 tomorrow but I still don't understand why gm would feel the need to lie at midnight, when all the actions have been set in stone and a lie would just confuse the town instead of being clean and simple. I feel like a more valid reason for the kills would be that a bus driver bussed his kill but that's also just speculation. RE: Bus driver Bus driver's possible, but the end result with respect to who mafia killed doesn't change, so it becomes entirely irrelevant whether or not he lied, only whether or not he shot Visc. If anyone bussed Visc/RoL they're either delusional or mafia, which means mafia has a bus driver. Which means this game is fucking broken. We can't call shots to confirm anyone. Roles like GM and LSB's can be rerouted with mafia knowledge of who's innocent to change a shot against mafia to a double townie kill. The only way of obtaining proper information about a shooter would be to have at least 3 people shoot during a night. But that's kinda beyond the fact. A driver is an assured +3 for mafia with a single night action. I hope you recognize that even hatters typically don't have that much firepower (3 bomb hatters are a +2 swing and take the entire game to set up). The only night action I've seen do more than a 3 kill swing for a team was the Murrayitis plague, but there were at least five plague related roles acting across 3-4(5?) days in the game that had to engineer the beautiful destruction that we set up for that one. RE: RoL I'm not claiming EITHER lied about their role. If LSB's role wasn't the same as GM's GM wouldn't have had a need to continue pushing him and would have said "oh shit, we DONT have the same role". But that's not the case. Nothing in ANY of LSBs or GMs post indicate that their vig shots do not work vs townies, with LSB basing his plea on the very fact that it does. GM replied to this very point without commenting on it. RE: GGQ So, you have VE shooting GM, who would die or confirm himself as green during the night. No. You also have 3 mafia KP per day which leads to LyLo on day 2 with a single missed justice vig. Double No. I don't like what you are doing. Its blatant fear mongering with insane theorizing behind this games set up. We can assume the mafia probably has a RB, and probably a GF, at most I'd give them one more power role which would probably be a medic which would encourage the idea of responsibility by allowing the mafia to punish the town trying to coordinate publicly. A bus driver makes the game crazy on so many levels while serving the same effect that a medic would by allowing them to disrupt hits, but would do it in a much more destructive manner. You go even farther to say that there must be a bus driver and this game is fucked. Stop talking about crazy shit and be productive, I will just kill you if I see you fear mongering and not being productive one more time, its scummy as shit L and its not going to fly.
RE: You RoL, there's a difference between mildly not understanding logic and implying that I'm saying the opposite of what I'm saying.
I said there CANNOT be a bus, specifically on the mafia team, because given the roles that have been claimed thus far it would be off the charts ridiculously powerful.
Seriously, what the shit.
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On December 24 2011 09:25 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:Show nested quote +On December 24 2011 07:33 L wrote:On December 24 2011 01:20 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:On December 23 2011 16:32 L wrote:On December 23 2011 15:42 chaoser wrote: Ok, you bring up a good point. I'll have to retread the whole claiming part of day 1 tomorrow but I still don't understand why gm would feel the need to lie at midnight, when all the actions have been set in stone and a lie would just confuse the town instead of being clean and simple. I feel like a more valid reason for the kills would be that a bus driver bussed his kill but that's also just speculation. RE: Bus driver Bus driver's possible, but the end result with respect to who mafia killed doesn't change, so it becomes entirely irrelevant whether or not he lied, only whether or not he shot Visc. If anyone bussed Visc/RoL they're either delusional or mafia, which means mafia has a bus driver. Which means this game is fucking broken. We can't call shots to confirm anyone. Roles like GM and LSB's can be rerouted with mafia knowledge of who's innocent to change a shot against mafia to a double townie kill. The only way of obtaining proper information about a shooter would be to have at least 3 people shoot during a night. But that's kinda beyond the fact. A driver is an assured +3 for mafia with a single night action. I hope you recognize that even hatters typically don't have that much firepower (3 bomb hatters are a +2 swing and take the entire game to set up). The only night action I've seen do more than a 3 kill swing for a team was the Murrayitis plague, but there were at least five plague related roles acting across 3-4(5?) days in the game that had to engineer the beautiful destruction that we set up for that one. RE: RoL I'm not claiming EITHER lied about their role. If LSB's role wasn't the same as GM's GM wouldn't have had a need to continue pushing him and would have said "oh shit, we DONT have the same role". But that's not the case. Nothing in ANY of LSBs or GMs post indicate that their vig shots do not work vs townies, with LSB basing his plea on the very fact that it does. GM replied to this very point without commenting on it. RE: GGQ So, you have VE shooting GM, who would die or confirm himself as green during the night. No. You also have 3 mafia KP per day which leads to LyLo on day 2 with a single missed justice vig. Double No. I don't like what you are doing. Its blatant fear mongering with insane theorizing behind this games set up. We can assume the mafia probably has a RB, and probably a GF, at most I'd give them one more power role which would probably be a medic which would encourage the idea of responsibility by allowing the mafia to punish the town trying to coordinate publicly. A bus driver makes the game crazy on so many levels while serving the same effect that a medic would by allowing them to disrupt hits, but would do it in a much more destructive manner. You go even farther to say that there must be a bus driver and this game is fucked. Stop talking about crazy shit and be productive, I will just kill you if I see you fear mongering and not being productive one more time, its scummy as shit L and its not going to fly. RE: You RoL, there's a difference between mildly not understanding logic and implying that I'm saying the opposite of what I'm saying. I said there CANNOT be a bus, specifically on the mafia team, because given the roles that have been claimed thus far it would be off the charts ridiculously powerful. Seriously, what the shit. Why are you even talking about it then? No one mentioned it to begin with, the way you were wording it was strange and I see what you meant but why are you even analyzing what the fuck could of happened so hard? You are talking about elaborate scenarios that have no relevance. RE: Irrelevance
No, see, they do have relevance because they constitute the biggest piece of evidence that we've got: Figuring out who the mafia killed and why.
I think mafia killed Hydra/Jackal. I think that hydra can largely be explained based on his stature as a dangerous townie. I think Jackal cannot be.
If that's the case, then something in Jackal's posting history made him a lynch target. Which means that he probably indicated that he was suspicious of a mafia member. But going through Jackal's post history to try and find something important becomes kinda irrelevant if the reason why his death is evidence would be constestable.
So no, Foolishness and RoL. Its not irrelevant. I've asked for someone to come up with a better explanation regarding what happened. None have surfaced. So granted that there's no better explanation for what happened during the night, I'm going to start looking through Jackal's history.
There's another issue here with respect to Chez and the RB: given my analysis he's probably not lying which makes me think he's green.
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On December 24 2011 12:48 Mr. Wiggles wrote: So L, you have a lot to say about trying to figure out who killed who, and how the night actions went down. Do you have anything to say about who you want to lynch, today? RE: Lynch choice.
I don't have one quite yet because the day's going super slow and my suspicions aren't confirmed. But GGQ is the only person who Jackal's filter throws suspicion onto but I haven't had time to look through his posts properly yet. Also seems conflicting that his analysis, if I recall correctly, said that jackal was mafia killed. He wouldn't want to give that answer if that's why mafia hit jackal.
So I'm kinda looking through posts atm to see if anything else pops up.
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On December 25 2011 13:46 Ver wrote: Yeah I know. I'm almost tempted to extend day another 24 hours as this is ridiculous. Please do.
Everyone's obviously experiencing some serious turkey coma.
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RE: Activity.
Sorry, my Christmas plans multiplied pretty quickly because one side of my family had a second celebration on the 26th due to scheduling conflicts with other chunks of the family from which I just got home from.
If I had to push for someone yesterday I'd have gone after GGQ. I was pretty certain with my assessment, but I hadn't put together enough time to outline the full case on him.
RE: BC The recent few posts by BC have been oddly worded, but only if you don't bother reading the first day of the game. He is talking about the breadcrumbing that I (and one other) did early on in the thread. I fully agree with his statement (maybe not to the same extent that he put it), but every claimed role thusfar has been a form of conditional or weakened vig. This also fits with my initial prediction that the concept of responsibility will be a game accellerant.
RE: Night Either way, we might lose tonight if more guns go off in the wrong direction.
We've got four options:
1) Power play: We draw up hit targets and have people volunteer to hit if they can w/ accompanying roleclaims.
2) Hit discuss: We discuss hit targets and let people decide of their own choice if they wish to act on it.
3) Silence + NA: We refuse to talk about potential hits in order to neuter any potential RB action, then hit targets as per private tendencies
4) No night actions: We do any of the above, but hold off on shooting people tonight.
But to be honest we don't have very much time to deliberate over these options. The more pressing matter is who should we shoot and why. I personally don't think BC should be shot, but my gut is telling me that GGQ, Kitaman and Foolishness are probably our best choices for the night.
GGQ's posting contents look scummy on their own, and Jackal, an otherwise unimpressive kill target, points towards him. Kitaman asks a LOT of questions but offers very little content of his own. His posts seem careful and guarded, careful to prod, but not make opponents. Foolishness took day 2 off after a standard non-existent day 1; very atypical play given he normally springs into action D2, but hey, I was afk for the majority of D2 as well.
But see, here's my problem, the main criteria for catching mafia if I'm right about this format being hit driven is activity. Given that we just had ZERO activity out of anyone, I'm kinda up shit's creek about how to understand what happened. I'm going to go reread day 1, because the past 15 pages of the thread are trash.
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We absolutely need to lynch a mafia member today or we're finished. We also can't have anyone not on board during this lynch, because we need 5 people to secure a majority, and there are only five townspeople in the game.
Here are the people left alive:
2. RebirthOfLeGenD 4. kitaman27 5. syllogism 8. Liquid`Sheth 10. L 13. Chezinu 15. bumatlarge 19. prplhz
Out of these 8, we only have 5 townies and 3 mafia left. When picking a target, even randomly, there's a 40% chance or so that you hit mafia.
People are inactive, so we need to get the vote train, or at least a solid discussion train, out of the station asap.
RoL is by far the best candidate for a lynch today.
Here is his filter: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=295384&user=41447
The second day is the real kicker. RoL pushes for a lynch on BC, then crumbs that he's a veteran because his absurd claim to being shot is proven to be impossible without a mafia medic protecting him, or chez lying about being roleblocked. RoL, however, jumped on the "I'm confirmed innocent due to GM dying" idea almost immediately, though, without attempting to understand how or why he didn't die.
Put simply, either he or Chez is mafia.
But we don't even need to check that out, because RoL has admitted that he's a liar here:
On December 27 2011 15:46 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: LSB didn't hit me, Gmarshal did. They could feasibly have different roles, GM never said to the contrary.
Here RoL doesn't say that he might have been shot, but that he was hit. If that's the case, then he was protected and RoL, contrary to his statement earlier:
On December 23 2011 14:40 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: I never received any notification.
Wouldn't have known one way or another if he was indeed shot. But if the shots don't add up, RoL needs to explain it away. Lets see how he does that:
On December 26 2011 15:36 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: Why did it take so long, and that is your only reason for shooting him? The mafia would either have to not RB anyone, RB people they are killing if GM was scum and wanted to do that or he would be counterclaimed instantly and die. You aren't stupid, how long could he keep an "I got RBed" charade up? Not long if at all. Even if the mafia did the RB + hit on people I doubt Veterans are effected in this set up because I don't think Ver has ever done that, and a medic could still save a target they RB + hit.
Would a RB negate Veteran status if veterans hypothetically existed in this set up?
You had to have another reason to hit GM, and for what reason could you only hit GM?
He softclaims Veteran and surmises that there might be medics in-game. Not a single person who has claimed has indicated that a hit was blocked on them, or that they had been shot.
Then we have this:
On December 28 2011 09:34 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:Show nested quote +On December 28 2011 06:13 Foolishness wrote: The other day I thought that BC was red, but his claim makes a lot of sense.
Why RoL is still alive is the biggest problem at the moment. If GM breadcrumbed his real target (which most people seem to think he didn't) I haven't been able to figure out the real target.
Pretend that you are RoL and you are mafia. You got shot last night but you survived due to whatever reason (medic, veteran, etc). What would you say in the thread? You are highly suspicious cause you were inactive day 1, so claiming that you took a hit isn't going to do anything for you since it will just make the town lynch you anyways. But if you claim that nothing happened to you during the night, suddenly you might be saved since everyone is now distracted with what really happened during the night. And perhaps GM's suspicions of you were just a farce to hide his real shot.
We should still kill bugs at some point though. I guess we will know tomorrow, won't we? Which is basically a softclaim that RoL is going to prove his role using a night action. Five hits in. The one mafia death is already claimed. Either RoL shot someone over the night and they were a townie, or the claimant lied.
Basically every post on the second page of RoL's 2 page long filter implicates him as a mafia member.
Unless someone has a near-perfect case on someone else, I'm keeping my vote here: ##Vote:RebirthOfLeGenD
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On December 28 2011 14:35 bumatlarge wrote:3 scum left, so we need all townies on one wagon, so if it's a mislynch we lose? Or wait everyone is a vig :D 2. RebirthOfLeGenD 4. kitaman27 5. syllogism 8. Liquid`Sheth 10. L 13. Chezinu 15. bumatlarge 19. prplhz I'll believe prphlz because WBG ended up being scum and was hounding him. L I think might be a pretty good lynch, foolishness shot him, and because all townies are vigis, roleblocking is probably an issue. Bat sense tell me this makes L scum. People need to not shoot people so much Wait, what? Who did what to me now?
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RE: Votes on me.
I just read through the thread, and the argument for shooting me is that someone crumbed a shot, then didn't shoot me, ergo I must be mafia.
This is odd for two very short reasons:
1) The exact same thing happened for RoL, who has a mountain of lies and bullshit to his name.
2) It would be very easy to RB foolishness if I was a townie to attempt to train on me the next day and secure the win.
So we're in a position in which mafia needs a SINGLE person from town to disbelieve an open and closed mafia case in front of them in order to defuse the lynch. Who steps up to the plate and tries to softpush me, then realizes he's an idiot and needs to go balls in because his case is terrible? bumatlarge. Who's his mafia cohort in this, a person who was ostensibly going to get vig hit tonight? Kitaman. Both of them have done relatively little for the entire game, both played very concilliatory day 1. Everything fits.
Welp, Kitaman/bumatlarge/RoL for mafia fits pretty well. If Sheth was mafia he'd probably have been replaced quite a while back. Thanks for outting yourselves, buddies.
RE: Night actions
The only piece of the puzzle that is now missing is how we close out the game. We know mafia have a RB. We know we have a maximum of 5 shots as town. If we lynch properly today, there will be 2 mafia left (assuming there's only a single traitor). That'll probably cut down their KP to 1. If that's the case, then their night hit will put us at 4:2.
My question here ends up being what should we do with respect to the night hits. We'll have 5. It seems like the best idea would be to shoot 1,3 or 5 people.
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On December 29 2011 09:43 Liquid`Sheth wrote: Well then here's my proof. Its honestly not as bullet proof as I originally thought, but after thinking about it all day today I'm still quite happy with it.
Our first night we have 5 deaths. We all know Chaoser killed Palmar. 4 left. Then its Gmarshal, VisceraEyes, Jackal and Samuel. Here its gotten tricky and we've had lots of confusion figuring this out. I'm not going to go into who caused a lot of the confusion but I think scum tried to take advantage of a lucky situation and I think no one figured out quite what did happen here. I'd like to suggest my opinion on it which I feel very confident in.
4 people are left unaccounted for. GM, VE, Jackal and Sam. Now BC claimed he shot GM and was proven correct. That leaves 3 unaccounted for. Sam + Jackal I can see as mafia doing 2 kp. I feel like in a small group like this mafia while still 4 having any more then 2 kp would be pretty insane honestly. This is the point pretty much my whole theory relies on. What about VE then? I think he shot GM as well and simply had to die based on his type of Vig shot. I think this was hinted at quite a bit as well when VE told me if I didn't vote something bad would happen to me at night, I think he simply chose to use this ability on GM. Heres the logic that hasn't been explained yet I think.
He Thought GM was lieing, because he had LSB's exact job. He was that suicide vig and he was named Overtly Righteous Vigilante or whatever it was called. So because of this it made sense for him to use his power on GM. This caused the confusion here and led to what I believe to have happened. This idea and some others simply lead to the fact mafia have 2kp. This is the point I'm trying to prove from this and what I think you should take out of it.
Next we get into the 6 who died this last night. GGC, BC, Chaoser, Wiggles, Foolishness, WBG. This has been tricky to pin down as well. If we believe Mafia had 2 kp, I think its somewhat obvious they'd kill Chaoser a confirmed blue and Foolishness who was really breathing down WBG's back, this isn't too important I'm just picking two for mafia to have called. This leaves 4 kills uncalled for. Prplhz killed WBG, I think thats obvious. So now were at 3 kills left over. Theres no real way to tell for sure how they killed each other but I think its easy to go about it logically.
This leaves BC, GGC, and Wiggles. I don't see a really logical way for them to have town killed each other except for with help. The chances that GGC killed BC who killed Wiggles who killed GGC is pretty ridiculously small. I think the best and obvious chance is that one of those 3 was killed by outside influence. This was when RoL claimed that he shot BC. I find this much more believable then any other alternative. GGC and Wiggles perhaps one targeted the other with a suicide vig or perhaps did something else that resulted in them being killed (perhaps both targeting BC).
So, with mafia kp at 2, and these 3 left with no one claiming I think it only makes sense that someone killed one of the 3 outside of those 3, and if no one is countering RoL's claim I believe him and I think its proof enough that hes innocent. This is what my "proof" boils down to, and I wish it was more concrete, but I believed it was true and still do.
Two mistakes.
The first is that GM supposedly shot RoL day 1, and that chez was rb'd that night. He claimed he isn't a vet, so how did he survive?
The second is that mafia can call shots because they have kp. Shooting someone doesn't make you a townie. Shooting a mafia member does. Prplhz is either a vig or an sk, and I'd put my money on vig. Additionally, go read GGC's and Wiggle's filters; You'll find something interesting in there.
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On December 29 2011 11:18 kitaman27 wrote:Show nested quote +On December 29 2011 09:55 L wrote: RE: Votes on me.
I just read through the thread, and the argument for shooting me is that someone crumbed a shot, then didn't shoot me, ergo I must be mafia.
This is odd for two very short reasons:
1) The exact same thing happened for RoL, who has a mountain of lies and bullshit to his name.
2) It would be very easy to RB foolishness if I was a townie to attempt to train on me the next day and secure the win.
So we're in a position in which mafia needs a SINGLE person from town to disbelieve an open and closed mafia case in front of them in order to defuse the lynch. Who steps up to the plate and tries to softpush me, then realizes he's an idiot and needs to go balls in because his case is terrible? bumatlarge. Who's his mafia cohort in this, a person who was ostensibly going to get vig hit tonight? Kitaman. Both of them have done relatively little for the entire game, both played very concilliatory day 1. Everything fits.
Welp, Kitaman/bumatlarge/RoL for mafia fits pretty well. If Sheth was mafia he'd probably have been replaced quite a while back. Thanks for outting yourselves, buddies. oh so now we're the scum team because we decided to vote for you? How about this one: Show nested quote +On December 22 2011 06:33 L wrote: 15. bumatlarge -- Huge content filled posts designed to spur discussion and an early vote. Very town. bum goes from huge content and very town to doing relatively little and playing very conciliatory? Do you have no comments on the case made against you rather than just calling us scum for bringing it up? You seem to try to pass it off as being the target of Foolishness's shot, but there has been much more than you never address. Bum stopped posting content midway through the game after the majority of day 1 analysis ended. Go read his filter. He's now claiming that he crumbed that he's wanted to hit me all game, which was the EXACT OPPOSITE of what he was claiming day 1 when he supposedly made the claim.
If that isn't a straight up lie, I don't know what is.
What else, exactly, didn't I address? Feel free to bring it up.
The entire argument against me now revolves around the fact that there are potentially multiple roleblockers which vindicates RoL(???) and that I was shot last night. I wasn't.
We have a near 99% confirmed mafia in RoL and you're throwing shit at me after sitting on your thumbs all game. So no, Its not about voting for me. Its about voting for me - after I pinned your mafia buddy down - using logic WHICH DOUBLY INCRIMINATES YOUR BUDDY.
We 100% need to lynch someone today, but we need to hit a mafia member. If you lynch me, we hit 4:3, probably with 2 mafia hits. remaining. At max, if there's a mafia RB, there are 3 hits you can put out. If mafia does have a medic or a second RB, that means 2 kills maximum if all 3 hits are available, but that's if all of the hits are allowed due to triggers and there's no overlap in the shots. So basically we're likely to only be able to shoot 1 mafia during the night, which puts us at 2:2, which is a loss.
Now do you get why foolishness would be RB'd and a train driven at me asap afterwards? Now do you get why this is a pretty obvious mafia game ender?
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On December 29 2011 11:54 prplhz wrote: Okay I didn't really want to post this in the thread but then I decided to do it anyway.
Chezinu has been away for 6 days straight. We need all 5 town votes to survive today. If Chezinu is town then this game is already lost. That means that either Chezinu is scum or we lose anyway.
Is this a very compelling argument for everybody switching to Chezinu or what? Between Chezinu and RoL, one of the two is mafia. I'd rather lynch RoL because I'm 99% certain its him.
That said, if Chez is mafia, then bum probably isn't mafia, RoL would be cleared, you already are. That means we'd have chez/kita/sheth/syllo as the potential mafia members. We'd have 5 townies remaining with 4 ostensible shots (only bum and I have ours soft/hardclaimed) remaining against 4 potential targets. We'd pretty much win tonight.
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On December 29 2011 12:12 Liquid`Sheth wrote: So, does everyone think we should mass role claim? I've never seen one, or been a part of one to know for sure if its a good idea or not. It just seems like this will be the last day, because of vig shots and things. And I think any more information on this last day could be important. Thoughts ? If mafia has avoided some of the triggers and has RBs, this could be a fantastic way to lose our only shot at winning the game tonight.
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On December 29 2011 13:05 prplhz wrote: @L
Are you ever going to tell people what the hell you found in GGQ and Mr. Wiggles' filters or what? Did you claim yet? GGQ spent the majority of his last few posts railing against RoL's claims, then voted wiggles.
Then we've got GGQ's probably only 'quality' post which contains this:
I see two possibilities:
1) Mafia roleblocked and shot GM. This is a pretty simpleminded way of doing things for the mafia. It completely eliminates the risk that GM would shoot one of them.
2) Mafia roleblocked GM and someone else shot him. Let's examine the motivations for each action. If Mafia roleblocks GM, he survives the night and no scum is dead. GM looks super scummy day 2 and very possibly gets lynched. Why would someone shoot him? Several decent cases about why he might be mafia were made during day 1 and he counterclaimed LSB who flipped town. He posted nothing during the night phase that would discourage a shot until after the deadline. It's quite possible that a townie would shoot him.
I'm moving farther into speculation here, but I suspect VE shot GM. If you look at day 1, GM mentioned the possibility of suicide vigilantes in his post with the justice picture. VE then twice brings this up suggesting that GM seems to have hidden knowledge of roles in the game (GM had that knowledge because of his role but VE assumed that he had it because he was mafia which would mean VE assumed GM was right about there being a suicide vigilante. Why so certain? Because VE was one himself). Also he laters threatens Sheth that if he doesn't vote LSB something bad will happen to him overnight.
GGQ was pretty much the only person on record defending against a lynch on the grounds which are now taking place. He was an outspoken critic of RoL's claims as well.
Wiggles looked into RoL's claims and found that his claim to innocence was bullshit, then he spent the last day looking at a grand total of 1 thing: asking people to look into bum. After a full 3 days away from the thread, his ONLY posts were about bumatlarge.
Add up the dots; Both were leaning against RoL. One was leaning against bum. Both die and then a bum/kita group starts pushing a lynch for a reason which could equally be pushed onto RoL.
I mean, shit, this is a pretty obvious string of events.
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On December 29 2011 17:00 prplhz wrote: @L
Correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't you say that about Jackal58 and GGQ too when Jackal58 died? Jackal58 had been suspicious of GGQ and then Jackal58 died and you got suspicious of GGQ or something like that? Day 2's analysis was more of an effort to get people talking and see who would be willing to jump whole heartedly onto a lynch with an admittedly mediocre amount of information. The hope was that people would out themselves early on and that we'd be able to set up a play during the night, but we ended up having another innocent train start up, which completely neutered that effort. We ended up with a no lynch day 2 because of how little people were talking, so I'm not sure what could have been done better, but if I prevented BC from being lynched, I saved us a death. That said, I'm 1 out of 2 in terms of people I've pushed, the two being Palmar and GGQ, so the record isn't' that bad. In this instance, however, it isn't merely a single post of Jackal's casting aspersions at someone.
Even if we just look at the posts of the dead, in this instance we have multiple players with MASSIVE posts against RoL's arguments on day 2 followed up with EXCLUSIVE posting about the person who is trying to start the bus to save him. There's also no one claiming the hits on these two people.
But we don't just have the posts of the dead. We have voting patterns; RoL spent yesterday trying to get BC killed. His vote today and the post that goes along with it recognizes the fact that he realizes either he or chez is mafia. If Bum/kita believe that RoL is innocent, then why aren't they voting chez? The answer should be obvious; they don't give a shit about catching mafia.
Bum started day 1 on the hydra. hydra died day 1 and pretty much everyone assumes it was a mafia hit. He switches to align with me onto palmar (at the same time as he now claims that he was crumbing a hit on me, which is a pretty overt lie), but promptly jumps off that to get on the innocent LSB train. Day two? Votes Wiggles then BC. Both, again, innocent.
Kitaman? Sheth, GMarshall, Foolishness, Prplhz, BC, Me. I personally think Sheth is a townie, and I know you are unless you shot one of your mafia buddies, which leaves us with another 6 innocent people being pushed.
So yeah, its a bit more than just a dead guy's post.
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