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HoD, who did you expect to be dead and why? I personally expected me or Toad as the likeliest KP targets; me for having the gall to actually lay out the Skrammen lynch (and for scum to cover their vote tracks), and Toad because he would have looked like a clear town had risk not died, given his vigorous defense. I thought the most likely killings would have been: 1) You: Have generally been very pro-town and have been promoting discussion. Killing you doesn't tell town much. 2) Chocolate: If he isn't scum, I think he is among the most likely to be blue. If scum picked up the same vibe, shooting for a blue is a good way to go. Possibly gives town some info, but if he is blue, definitely worth it for scum. 3) Zanfada or myself: I think Zanfada is town, and he hasn't been afraid to point fingers or stir discussion. Myself for the same as Zanfada. Killing one of us also doesn't seem to give town too much info. However, in retrospect I can kinda see risk as a similar target to myself and zanfada. I thought he was more likely town than scum, but I guess since scum knew he wasn't scum, if they didn't think they could build a case against him soon, he makes for a decent kill that doesn't give a whole lot of info.
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Once I'm home from work and not on lunchbreak I'll pull up Harbinger's post history as well, see what gems are hiding there, because of point 3, unless someone beats me to it. It's definately something worth looking into, especially as he was a part of the Skrammen "bandwagon". Feel free to do so. Of particular interest to you might be my post where I pointed out I was a potential benefactor of risk's death, or my post where I stepped up to defend toad early on, if you think toad is scum, that is. Other than that I have called out Drem for his nonsensical voting, mentioned to Ciry that he left some details out of a summary post, pointed out that risk's townie priority list didn't contain scum-hunting, and called out hackle for lurking. What I think is my single most important post: + Show Spoiler +Huh, that's not one of the top 3 I would have expected to be dead this morning.
Well then, let's see what this means.
Risk.nuke was the main proponent of the lynch toad campaign. Other than that he has called one of Ciry's posts suspicious, and he called a FOS on me awhile back.
So, who benefits from risk's death? 1) Toad, it removes the most ardent supporter of his lynching. 2) Skrammen, risk defended Skrammen, him flipping town upon death gives more weight to risk's defense of Skrammen. It also discredits Toad, as Toad had risk highest on his scum list. Him being wrong about that lowers the worth of his word when he accuses others of being scum. 3) Bunneh, also defended Skrammen, and is therefore indirectly helped by risk's death, although only slightly. 4) Ciry, but only if Ciry was worried about risk becoming increasingly suspect of him. 5) Myself, but, again, only if I still thought risk was suspicious of me. 6) Lurkers, if neither Skrammen nor Toad is scum, killing somebody who has spent almost all his time talking about these two makes for an amazing kill. It practically guarantees we will continue to focus on them, giving mafia another day where they don't get lynched.
I think it is clear that 1, 2, or 6 are the best candidates. 3, 4, and 5 mostly serve as potentially added bonuses, but certainly seem unlikely as main reasons. Also keep in mind, it is likely that the decision was made by scum before risk's long post before the bottom of page 17, and possibly before toad's as well. Very few people were around after those posts and prior to the night ending, and presumably scum would not leave the decision on who to shoot to a single member of their team.
So here's my opinion on the matter, Toad tends to talk too much and to talk too freely for me to think he is scum. Skrammen tends to have rather empty posts, he has done no real analysis so far, and has engaged in a decent amount of OMGUS, as collected in the spoiler. + Show Spoiler +
However, I, unfortunately, lack the conviction of our departed risk.nuke. I cannot say with 100% certainty that Skrammen is scum nor that Toad is Town. But here's what I think can help solve the problem, Toad and Skrammen, if you value your lives, please make a post of the following: 1) At least 2, preferably 3 people you think are scum 2) Explanations and some analysis of why you think they are scum 3) At least 2, preferably more, people you think are town, excluding yourself 4) Explanations of why you think they are town 5) What you think the goal of the risk.nuke shooting was
If we have this information from both of them, I think we will have a much clearer picture of things.
This post is getting long, but I feel the need to restate something from an earlier post of mine, thus far hacklebeast has gotten away with contributing a total of jack shit and that needs to change in a hurry. and what I think was probably my scummiest post if you think toad is scum: + Show Spoiler +I don't see how toad telling people to be active even if they are blues is suspicious, it isn't like he said "dt's and medics should role-claim in the thread" or anything. He, like most of us, is simply trying to encourage activity from everyone. It also helps make it clear that you must contribute to scum-hunting as a blue if you don't want to be mistaken for scum yourself. And just to call someone out a bit, I believe Skrammen has actually said the least of anyone so far, with a total contribution of: Good morning gentlemen!] I hope that helps you find whatever you're looking for.
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Sorry for the three posts in a row, I've kinda been responding to things I think I should respond to as I read the thread.
On November 03 2011 00:04 hyshes wrote: I jus reread the whole thread and i'm going to post a hard statement here.
Ciryandor - Toadesstern - Drem903
These 3 are referring to each other all the time, without direct accusations. This leaves me to think that they don't want eachother lynched.. but wan to have a backup of posts that do kinda disconnect them. There is something really fishy between those 3. I'm willing to go on a vote on one of these three for sure.
....What? I'm really going to need a much more thorough analysis of how you think Ciryandor is scum. Additionally, I want to know why in the hell you think either Ciryandor or Toad could be scum if Drem is, considering Ciryandor called out Drem's posts as something to keep an eye on, and now we have Toad being the first vote of the day and placing it on Drem. I really want to hear how this makes the slightest bit of sense to you.
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If Rammen was town, then we would have ended up losing two townies on day 1, leaving us with a bare majority (we would have 6 out of 10 people) First hyshes posts some shitty logic, then Drem doesn't realize that according to the OP there are: 3 of 3 MAFIA remaining We would have been left with 7 out of 10 people. What the fuck people?
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There posting distances them from eachother, so if one of them gets lynched.. they can refer to these. Risk and I both made one post putting a small amount of suspicion on each other, does that mean we're scum buddies? Oh wait! He flipped green!
But seriously hyshes, you're going to have to make a much more solid case than that if you want me to believe those 3 are scum. Since I am not on your list of scum, I assume you'd want to get me voting in line with you, so please prove it by giving some actual analysis.
As for this:
I know Ciryandor made a huge post about drem, but he just throws it out there. That post should atleast have ended with a firm FOS or vote on drem to be legit for me.
So he either should have voted him or explicitly typed FOS? He clearly stated in his voting post his preferred order was Skrammen over Drem, and he can't vote for both. I wasn't aware you need to type out FOS to let people know you are suspicious of someone, I thought saying "hey, this person has done a ton of suspicious shit which I have listed and explained here" is much stronger than saying nothing but a line or two and FOS on whoever.
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@hyshes What about hackle being scum? Surely you don't have enough info on him to tell whether he is scum or town yet, how would he not offer an alternative explanation? I know you are claiming that is the only explanation you can figure out, but since on my reading of the thread I don't see it, can you please spell it out for me a bit more? Pointing out specific posts and parts of posts that you think make them seem scummy, and implicate them in risk's death would be appreciated.
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xsksc, you've been pretty quiet, would you mind posting some of your thoughts/analysis? I pretty much have a null read on you currently.
Also, just to mention it, Hacklebeast has posted on TL elsewhere since his last post in here. This suggests to me he is either a disinterested VT, or scum that made his contributions to his scum-buddies but neglected the actual thread. Maybe he'll get mod-killed if he keeps this up, but if he does return I hope he reads this and leaves something along the lines of a detailed analysis giving his current read on every player to compensate for his complete lack of contribution thus far.
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@Toad, he said if he flips red risk and bunneh have issues. Not if he flips green. He said that because risk and bunneh defended him.
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Ciryandor, I would also like to hear what your current thoughts are when you get the chance. You've posted today, but none of your usual analysis yet.
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@Skrammen Since you reappeared, I would like to reassert my earlier request; If you value your life, please make a post of the following: 1) At least 2, preferably 3 people you think are scum 2) Explanations and some analysis of why you think they are scum 3) At least 2, preferably more, people you think are town, excluding yourself 4) Explanations of why you think they are town 5) What you think the goal of the risk.nuke shooting was
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@hyshes Have you reconsidered your 3 scum picks yet? If Ciry and Drem are both scum, why would Ciry now be voting for and bringing intense scrutiny to Drem? Do you honestly think that mafia would be bussing one of their players on day 2?
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@Bunneh I thought you were going to look into my post history and make a statement regarding it? Am I not special enough for that? :-(
Once I'm home from work and not on lunchbreak I'll pull up Harbinger's post history as well, see what gems are hiding there, because of point 3, unless someone beats me to it. It's definately something worth looking into, especially as he was a part of the Skrammen "bandwagon".
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@hyshes Who are three or four people you think are the most likely to be town? A bit on why if possible would be helpful, although I know explanations are not your strong point.
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Drem, if you are still around, I would also like to know who are several people you think are likely to be town and why.
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I was thinking of waiting until I have some more info, but the more I look at it the more confident I am.
Hyshes is SCUM
Why do I say this? To start, let's begin with some simple facts: 1) The only people with knowledge of this game not contained within this thread are scum, or a detective. 2) People with the same knowledge, reading the same thread, should come to similar conclusions, and these conclusions should converge as time passes and information accumulates.
And then Hyshes drops this on us:
I jus reread the whole thread and i'm going to post a hard statement here.
Ciryandor - Toadesstern - Drem903
These 3 are referring to each other all the time, without direct accusations. This leaves me to think that they don't want eachother lynched.. but wan to have a backup of posts that do kinda disconnect them. There is something really fishy between those 3. I'm willing to go on a vote on one of these three for sure. Well what in the fuck is that? Ciry is near the top of most people's town lists. Now we have Hyshes listing him as scum?
Then there is Toad, this guy is very active, answers anything asked of his immediately, and his posting method seems to be make the post, and double post if he needs to edit it. That carefree and transparent posting manner seems pretty townie to me. Given that besides Hyshes only Drem and Skrammen have called any suspicion on Toad so far today, and even they do not put him on top of their lists. I think it is clear at least most people do not see Toad as very scummy right now.
As for Drem...well, he is actually a target for some. Perhaps he was included to try to give some more credibility to this list? Also, given this: + Show Spoiler +Show nested quote +On November 03 2011 11:17 HarbingerOfDoom wrote: @hyshes Have you reconsidered your 3 scum picks yet? If Ciry and Drem are both scum, why would Ciry now be voting for and bringing intense scrutiny to Drem? Do you honestly think that mafia would be bussing one of their players on day 2? Actually i would call that good play. Atleast in my head does that line up with good tactics. It is also not entirely out of the question that Hyshes is willing to indict a fellow scum, although I would not say it is the most likely.
So how could his list make sense? I think we have three options here: 1) He is a dt, checked Ciry, and Ciry came up red. We are not even guaranteed to have a dt, and if we did I would find it absurd that they would check Ciry first. I will be generous and give this 1% probability. 2) His reading comprehension is awful at best, and he therefore managed to come to a conclusion very different from anyone else. This is a newbie game, and his country listed on his profile isn't an english speaking one, so I will again be very generous, and give this a 9% chance. 3) He is scum and his list makes sense because he knows who really is scum, and because he wants to do as much as possible to discredit and cast suspicion on townies. I give this the remaining 90% probability.
So, just from that it is looking very likely to me that Hyshes is scum, but let's go into some more detail. I will present my arguments in order of what I think their strength is, with the strongest ones first.
What about his overall presence in the game? + Show Spoiler + He posts a reasonable amount, but mostly says very little, does no real analysis, and overall makes no contributions to town efforts. He also makes one posts indirectly defending inactivity: @IMABUNNEH even though i don't like inactives either, direct attacks seem a bit off. Much more interesting than that though, is how often he asks people questions. Let's review every question he has directed at players in the thread. So who is left on the list of non-poster? A useless filler post that he could easily answer himself. Toadesstern, could you please direct your questions to people in specific? We can not always be sure who you mean with "you" (just because i'm not sure if you are asking me anything) Again, not really looking for information from Toad, just checking to see if he is supposed to answer something. btw Ciryandor , are you going to spend post #2000 in a newbie mafia game? Once again a filler post. And that's it. He literally wants no information from his fellow players. How could that possibly be? Easy, he knows everything important because Hyshes is scum. Next, let's investigate his issues regarding the vote deadline: + Show Spoiler +I was actually around when the day ended but because the [*time*] thingy of teamliquid did not change until past night for european timezones (we had a timeshift saturday) i missed it by a few minutes. (you can ask our host, i msged him about it) that is what i said... i needed a vote to not get modkilled.. so i voted for the most suspicous person back then... I probably would have chosen for a lynch if i didn't miss the deadline... (but that is void now) While I understand there may have been some confusion regarding the time, why didn't he make a post in the thread then? Also, why did he message the host about it? I think most townies would have posted their vote change, or at least their question, in the thread and hoped for the best. But perhaps he had a question about night actions that he wanted to ask the host as well so he just bundled it up with that, perhaps a question about role-blocking or killing. Or maybe because he is scum, he knew whether or not Skrammen is. If Skrammen is scum, no reason to change your vote and get your buddy killed. If he isn't scum, being the last person to last second change their vote to get a townie lynched would seem scummy as hell. Either way, best to keep quiet. How about his lovely analysis to support his position? + Show Spoiler +Show nested quote +On November 03 2011 04:40 HarbingerOfDoom wrote: @hyshes What about hackle being scum? Surely you don't have enough info on him to tell whether he is scum or town yet, how would he not offer an alternative explanation? I know you are claiming that is the only explanation you can figure out, but since on my reading of the thread I don't see it, can you please spell it out for me a bit more? Pointing out specific posts and parts of posts that you think make them seem scummy, and implicate them in risk's death would be appreciated. Hackle is a difficult one. He has posted really little. On the other question: i'm having a real problem explaining it. It's just a combination of the weird risk kill and all the weird post of those 3. You know what makes it really difficult to give a reason for people being scum? Knowing that they aren't scum. Even when pressed repeatedly his best explanations are along the lines of "I thought it was obvious" and "it was the only explanation I could figure out".I can figure out a ton of possible scenarios, why? Because I only know what is in this thread, unlike Hyshes. His complete refusal to include Hackle to produce an alternative explanation compounds the problem. I think most townies can envision at least one scenario where Hackle nicely fits the role of the third scum that they can't seem to find otherwise. Now, lets take a look at his day 1 voting: + Show Spoiler + Day 1 he votes for Zanfada. While I think some townies were genuinely suspicious of Zanfada, I also think scum saw his early vote and decided to use it to feed the idea that Zanfada is scummy, despite the fact that attention-getting, aggressive moves that start the initial conversations going are rarely how scum will start a game off. I also think scum was unlikely to pool their votes. If they all voted for Skrammen and he flipped green, they would be grouped together and absolutely fucked. Therefore I find it very likely that one of the votes for Zanfada was from scum. It is interesting to note that since day 2 started nobody has accused Zanfada of being scum, and he has even made several townie lists. I think this is clear evidence in scum involvement in throwing suspicion on him.
Possibly of note, the following people called some suspicion on Zanfada day 1: Drem, Chocolate, Skraamen, Hyshes, Xsksc, Bunneh. And now his day 2 voting: + Show Spoiler +##Unvote Toadesstern ##Vote Drem903
Drem is also on my list and there seems to be no backup for a vote on toad. Changing your vote to go with someone else that you think is scum and can get lynched can obviously be a townie move, however, I find it very interesting that he started with a vote for Toad. I think perhaps that scum had hoped to raise suspicion on Toad with the shooting of Risk, and this vote was an attempt to increase the pressure and suspicion on him. Upon seeing that isn't happening, he simply switches to Drem and leaves it at that. Again, this is possibly a null-read, but something to consider as well.
In conclusion, Hyshes is SCUM, lynch him.
##Vote Hyshes
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Well, I was expecting to see some form of defense when I came back, not some dramatic martyring.
Also, Hyshes, I regret to inform you that from the rules: 4. You may not vote for yourself. You may not vote for anyone dead or outside the game.
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@Toad That rule was there from the start
@Hyshes On the off chance you are town, please realize this play you are making is atrocious for town. If you somehow flip green it does nothing to strengthen your arguments. Being green does not make someone correct. If you want to convince people of something, do not martyr yourself, explain yourself. I was not the only one suspicious of you, and you certainly weren't making any town lists, but there was nobody voting for you until I presented my case against you. That is how you change people's opinions. The only reason to go down without a fight is to take information with you to the grave, and that is something only scum could want.
I was expecting to have a hard fought case against the people pushing for Drem to be lynched, especially since until his most recent post I had a largely null-read on him. I expected worst case scenario we have a very hotly contested vote, one of Drem or Hyshes is lynched, flips green. But, we then have a lot of information to work with from their defenses, and how and what people said while making their cases. Hopefully it would have been enough to narrow it down to something like 3 out of a group of 4 are scum. Best case scenario, Hyshes or Drem is lynched, flips red. Obviously I have a bias toward preferring to have Hyshes be the scum, but I'll certainly take a correct lynch over my own convictions being correct. Ideally the process exposes at least one other scum. But...that's not what I got. I got Hyshes claiming to "sacrifice" himself for the sake of town, and his total defense is an emotional appeal and calling my case against him a "wall of shit". I think at this point it is clear that he is either 1) Scum 2) Town playing in a way that is highly beneficial to scum. Since 2 is against the rule "play to win", I am stuck with my previous conclusion that he is scum.
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@Hyshes One other thing, if you are town (which I don't believe in the slightest), you are also granting scum probably their top wish for a lynch, a guilt-free bandwagon to hop on that gets a townie killed.
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Hyshes, you can blame me some, but the rest of the blame has to fall on you and nobody else. It isn't shitty logic to lynch the guy who refuses to defend himself or explain any of his convictions. With ONE vote on you (mine), you posted:
Ok guys i got the solution. After all it's a team game.
Lynch me
red: wohoo! scum kill green/blue: please promise me that you will lynch the obvious ones Then, when you have a total of 2 votes on you, still putting you behind Drem in number of votes, you post this and seal your fate:
##unvote drem ##vote hyshes
I asked you multiple times to explain your case, and your first real explanation came 3 hours before the deadline, after your stupid martyrdom play, and too late to save you. Had you actually posted anything like that earlier on instead of your "self-sacrifice" there is a decent chance Drem would have been the one hanging in your place. I looked at the post history of both of you, figuring one of you was likely scum, and I came out with the conclusion that there was a stronger case for you than for Drem. You could have defended yourself. You could have explained yourself. Drem could have slipped up if the pressure stayed on him. At the very least we would have had a controversial vote where scum actually had to make a choice. As it is, they got the easy wagon to hop on. If you're going to play, play to win ffs. I seriously hope you get a ban for not playing toward your win condition.
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To the rest of you, I apologize. I obviously could not have predicted the shitstorm that my accusation would cause, and realize this now drastically decreases our chances of winning. Not only did we get a mislynch, but we got one that produces almost no information and it killed nearly all other discussion from the time of my post first accusing Hyshes until now. The only way this could have gone any worse for us is if we also lost townies to mod-kills, and depending on what Hackle is (was?) we still might lose one.
I'm going to bed now, but I'll do my best to see what I can figure out from this mess when I return :-/
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