GRAND OLD AMERICA16375 Posts
A Detailed outlook and Analysis of This Town
DISCLAIMER: THIS POST IS ACCURATE UP TO THE 44th PAGE OF THE THREAD, DEVELOPING POSTS WILL NOT BE CONSIDERED. ALSO, THIS THREAD IS REDICULUOSLY LONG, SO READ ONLY WHAT YOU FEEL IS NECESSARY FOR WHATEVER SIDE YOU ARE ON
Don’t know this guy? That’s me, shame on you!
Sections of report
- Introduction
- Player Analysis and Personal thoughts
- Finals Thoughts
Introductions
This report and the analysis has purely came from the people who want me to defend myself as well as me wanting to put together my view of the current situation in the game. I will try to be as arbitrary as possible, but because I want to win for the town, and because I do have personal convictions of certain players here, I may seem biased. Player Analysis will include every single player that is still alive after the 1st night, though dead player’s quotes may be used to help further analysis of the players. This report will cater towards the town more so because the Mafia already knows who they are and they already know what is their main course of action. Here we go!
Player Analysis and Personal thoughts
[SPOILER]
Every single player will be posted here besides me, since others can analysis and decide what they think of me. As of now, these players are dead and are considered to be inactive from the thread
- Lafali the Mafia Goon: MODKILLED DAY 1
- TheKK the Mafia Goon:MODKILLED DAY 1
- Rookie44 the Medic: LYNCHED DAY 1
- Date_Reaper the Medic: MODKILLED DAY 1
- DeMorcerf the Townie:MURDERED NIGHT 1
- Clicker the Townie:MODKILLED DAY 1
- GCQ the Townie:MURDERED NIGHT 1
All of the players above are dead for their own reasons respective. I will not take time to analyze them because they cannot help any further, besides the roles they played.
Onto the list!
[*] Munk-E ] + Show Spoiler +His 1st Quote Looking at the people who are being voted for, here's my analysis.
-freeloader625 I think we're being a bit too hasty having him have with most votes. Sure his defenses were flimsy and irrelevant, but the reason we voted him in the first place was because he wasn't sure of the rules. This is a beginner's game, so I don't think this alone should be enough for a lynch.
The fact that he has, however, been flimsy with his defense leads me to believe that we may have gotten lucky accusing him. Another thing is that he continually cites his experience with SC2 mafia. I don't know if any of you played this, but it's not very difficult. You have 1 minute days and it is random lynching most of the time. Now it is possible to pin his poor defense on the easier mafia game, but I don't think that's really relevant at all. The poor defense is either caused by he is mafia, and a bad liar, or he's town, and a bad player.
I don't think however, that asking about the rules makes him mafia, and besides, if he was mafia, he would know the answer to the question. If we pretend he's really good at this game though, he might ask the question just to attempt to show inexperience and therefore be less likely to be lynched. I do think though, that if he were experienced, he would be able to foresee the fallout of his question. Therefore I think that he is just an inexperienced player looking for answers of how the game is played. That also is probably the reason his defense was so bad.
-lafali This one is interesting because he only has 2 posts. Both not very informative. One of them patting aprudds on the back, the latter accusing him because of something that happened far before the first earlier post. he voted freeloader at first, RIGHT before his second post. But an hour after he accused aprudds, he unvoted for seemingly no reason, and has yet to vote.
lafali is acting awfully suspicious, but I don't think that 2 short posts is quite enough information to judge him on. However, keep an eye out on him, he does seem rather suscpicious.
-aprudds He seems like an honest scum-hunting citizen, and his only vote so far is by pyo for the reason "aprudds - for a really arbitrary out of nowhere accusation". His accusation was reasoned by him, and he even stated it was partially just to get the discussion started. Honestly, he has been the most scum-hunting of us, so I think he's very town.
-TheAwesomeAll Considering this vote seems like a joke, I don't have much to say. First of all, it wasn't nearly his first post, as monsterDraker said, and furthermore, it wasn't even anything that bad, it was just facts. It does lead me to be suspicious of monster though. He voted because the post "annoyed" him. He seems WAY to hasty to vote. Because this game is geared for a beginner’s playstyle, his analysis of people jumping too hard on freeloader confirms with the game’s level of skill. Freeloader may be seen as a inexperienced player, not knowing the rules completely. His thoughts on lafali is correct since lafali flipped scum, and noticed that lafali attempted to create fake accusations with aprudds, then switched votes to freeloader. From this, Lafali’s flip loads of suspicions on aprudds. He shows that his belief is that arpudds is innocent as aprudds is seemed to be a “scum-hunting citizen”. He shows concern about TheAwesomeAll since he believes that TheAwesomeAll does not have a valid reason to vote for anyone. His 2nd quote Is anyone else suspicious of lafali? I mean he has said nothing to help anyone with his posts!
He has 3 real posts. the first one is this. Good catch by aprudds. A townie wouldn't need to know that information. However, he could be new. There are 40 people in this game though, so its not like its mylo.
This was about the whole freeloader incident at the beginning. This post is no help at all. He starts by complementing aprudds for his "good catch", and then immediately says why it may not matter. This post did nothing to help at all.
His next post is On June 05 2011 15:16 Lafali wrote: Show nested quote +
His subsequent posts were fishy. Due to that I hopped on the voting bandwagon along with them. Its a 40 player game, I'm sure we can afford a few mislynches. Regardless, we should continue scumhunting. We do have 48 hours.
He says "It's a 40 player game" again. and then clarifys what he means by saying "I'm sure we can afford a few mislynches." Now this is obviously scummy behavior. Saying this could only imply that mislynches aren't so bad. What's worse is even after he gave his incredibly scummy opinion, he said "Regardless, we should continue scumhunting" this is the complete opposite of what he was implying and feels like he kind of just tacked it on there to not seem as scummy. even after that, he says "We do have 48 hours" this again somewhat reinforces my analysis about his quote earlier about mislynches not being so bad. It's saying that we shouldn't worry now. Also in this post, he mentions just hopping on the bandwagon. At the time of this post, he DID just hop on the bandwagon. 10 minuites earlier, he was the 3rd person to vote. an hour after he voted, he unvoted seemingly unprompted with no explanation. He has yet to re-vote. This behavior seems pretty scummy. I'm guessing that the mafia PMed him and told him not to unvote freeloader, as he was drawing suspicion to himself. This post is filled with contradictions and scummy behavior.
His 3rd and final post is this:
On June 06 2011 04:02 Lafali wrote: Show nested quote +
I'm new to mafia forum games like this and mostly used to smaller and faster-paced ones where taking a risk on a mislynch is pretty common as long as the game is not mislynch-lose. The subsequent posts from treadmill seemed fishy and people started to vote for him and at that point he was the only one looking suspicious to me. However, after reading more into the thread it seemed like a bad idea to vote so early, and it would be better to wait for any tells, and then on day two, cop reports.
Here, he is being ULTRA defensive. along with being, again, completely useless. He first states that his previous experience with a different form of the game leads him to believe that mislynches are okay. He is saying "mislynches are okay, and here's why I think so" again. Next he mentions that he finds treadmill fishy. He gives no evidence for this at all, and the only reason he even mentioned him is because kurumi said he was more scummy than treadmill. his purpose in mentioning treadmill was to get kurumi to not vote him. He next says that voting early seems like a bad idea, despite the fact he was the 3rd to vote. And finally, he seems to be expecting DT to reveal himself tomorrow.
Note that he hasn't posted since this when people, including myself, started attacking him. I guess they forgot about him, but he definitely seems the most scummy to me.
##VOTE lafali Here he defends his reasoning for why Lafali is a scum, analyzing his quotes and making a stance on it. Woah! He was right! Lafali was a scum. Sadly, He has not talked any futher, which leads to show that he has signs of inactivity. However, going from his analysis and the fact that he was correct, the verdict is: A TOWNIE. [*] blackone + Show Spoiler +1st Quote This confuses me because from the other Mafia threads I read I feel that PMs are a pretty important part of the game. In particular, how is the scum supposed to operate without PMs? He did not read the thread entirely, and did not inform himself. This is clear signs of a TL Mafia first-Timer, but there is no hard evidence to suggest anything about him. 2nd quote Well, posting cute little haikus and being funny can lead to the suspicion that you have some kind of interest in being considered funny and friendly. Also, if you don't agree to that, why will you stop doing that now? It's not like gtrsrs can impose rules on how you have to post. He is just voicing his opinions on gtrsrs being annoyed with iGrok (Cmon, I liked your haikus too, it adds flavor to the game), but again there is nothing to suggest about his role. 3rd quote On June 06 2011 21:47 Xedat wrote: I just read through the whole thread, it looks like people started more useful posts later on, reading through pages 8-17 was a chore.
I think it is established that freeloader625's question is not a scum tell, as GGQ told us that they have a "quick topic" and would know if he was scum.
I agree as far as his original question is concerned, but his responses to being suspected seem really weird. Especially his last one, he's not posting for a while, gets called out by CjrNinja - Hide Spoiler - On June 06 2011 13:25 CjrNinja wrote: I do agree with you that Freeloader should be a little (read: lot) more active considering the accusations against him (Maybe MLG is taking precedence?). Speak up Freeloader, we want to hear what you have to say.
and, pretty much immediately, responds with this:
On June 06 2011 14:21 freeloader625 wrote: It's true. I spent most of the weekend watching MLG, both streams.
I was keeping an eye on this for all mirror matches though, I just chose not to comment.
Show nested quote +
Yes, I'm ashamed to admit I let pages 2-8 or 9 go without reading it, I assumed it was all just full of "/in's." I only read the first post and posts since the game has officially started.
Show nested quote +
Ohhh dirtay! I didn't not realize outside posts were fair game for this! I was under the impression (initially) that you can't click on ppls profiles/outside posts to avoid cheating or w/e. But I guess that's fair game.
What do I honestly think and why haven't I really commented even though I threw myself under the bus? I'll give a longer explanation come closer to Day 1's end. Har har har, another "bad defensive" post by me :D Take it as you may.
which is basically 1) Excuses for lurking 2) Claiming he didn't knew that checking a players post history was fair game 3) Claiming that he has some long explanation for his defense, that he is going to post at some point in the future.
While 2) is another very defensive reaction to being accused of lurking, 3) is the one that makes this whole post sound scummy to me, it seems like he can't defend himself at that point and wants to do so later, but sees the need for an immediate response. Why would he post something like that instead of either posting something to defend himself or posting nothing at all? (Especially since at the time he says he's going to post [closer to Day 1's end] nothing will have changed. Except the focus of the town may be on someone else.)
I think his post didn't get a lot of attention because the whole iGrok/gtrsrs/kurumi thing started to go off one post later, or does anybody else just think he is a townie that feels pressured and doesn't know what to say? Here is his first meaning post, where he starts to get into the game. He gives reasons for why freeloader acted the way he did, and attempts to guess his role. He shows suspicion but doesn’t push that suspicion further here. However, he made a little slipup when he said “Except the focus of the town may be on someone else”. This slipup, if analyzed in a certain way, can actually lead to him being a mafia since the tone of the statement is in 3rd-person rather than 1st person and he attempts to guess something instead of saying “unless we have other bigger cases at the moment”. However, this is a noobie game, so it may be just a slight mishap. 3rd post I'll vote freeloader now, mostly because of this On June 06 2011 14:21 freeloader625 wrote: What do I honestly think and why haven't I really commented even though I threw myself under the bus? I'll give a longer explanation come closer to Day 1's end. Har har har, another "bad defensive" post by me :D Take it as you may.
His longer explanation still hasn't happened, of course, I have no idea why people were focusing on his initial question when they were abandoning this case instead of his horrible "defense".
And the vote on rookie is stupid, people are bandwagoning because of one short post of analysis. Bad analysis actually, because 1) comparing b.net mafia to this one is just wrong, 2) he wasn't role fishing (you could say he was fishing for a town plan, but there's no way a blue would have role claimed because of what rookie wrote, newbie or not) so all that's left is On June 06 2011 04:22 rookie44 wrote: Maybe some of the more experienced players could expand on what investigative stratagies they have used; their pitfalls, and how we may evade those pitfalls.
which is fishy, yes, but definitely not more than what we have on freeloader. He states that the bandwagoning on rookie is stupid, but acknowledges that may there are reasons for the accusations against rookie. He then votes for Freeloader here since he states that freeloader has not given any defences at the moment when he posted, and looking at the timestamp of his votes, he felt that the rookie bandwagon is senseless. 4th post On June 07 2011 22:02 Kurumi wrote: Remember guys: Lafali and Treadmill,despite approving same things tried to distance eachother. This way,Treadmill is still scum in my eyes. Will write more after I get through this mess.
What "things" were they both approving? Treadmill was one of the few people trying to stop that rookie bandwagon. He is questioning one of kurumi’s statements and stating that treadmill was trying to stop the rookie bandwagon. He didn’t provide evidence that treadmill was trying to stop the bandwagon, so I do not know if he did try based off of this post. 5th post On June 08 2011 14:18 Pyo wrote: Show nested quote +
Yeah, you're definitely scum. Since you're scum, you aren't approaching it as townie would.
If it was a vet that got hit, there's nothing to exploit. no strategies can be used. If it is a medic, then we're in luck and we have options available to us. But if mafia know that we have that medic, then they will go medic hunting.
Now it is undoubtedly a good thing for the mafia to not know which one, as it will in the worst case scenario cost them another KP to learn which it is.
However, if the person who survived the hit outs themselves, it can be figured out which it is based on their posting.
As a townie knowing who survived the hit doesn't benefit us in anyway. Not until next night when the next round of DT checks go out. It's not like their analysis of posting becomes any more accurate or informed.
You are wrong, as others have already pointed out. "if the person who survived the hit outs themselves, it can be figured out which it is based on their posting."? How? Mafia already know who it is so they have all of this persons posts to figure his role out, if he makes a post saying "mafia tried to kill me last night", it tells them nothing, while we know their third target. And how does it not benefit us? It helps us as much as knowing who got killed, we get to know who the scum wants to see dead. Trying to keep this secret is very, very scummy.
On a related note: I don't know if day/night posts can contain information like this, but couldn't the post about GGQs death mean they used two KPs on him? - Hide Spoiler - On June 08 2011 13:04 Meapak_Ziphh wrote: GGQ was out walking around thinking about the failed lynch. He’d been around the block a few times and was trying to get his thoughts in order for the next day. Suddenly he heard a noise in the bushes, two black figures slipped out. GGQ immediately knew what came next, he’d seen the results many times before. “So this is how it ends?” He asked. His only response was the sinister click of hammers being pulled back. “Well” sighed GGQ laconically, “I’m glad I was thought dangerous enough to kill so early.” Two silenced bullets were his only reply.
I know that kind of contradicts the fist part of my post, but in this case Pyo could just be trying to hide the fact they only tried to kill two people. He is challenging Pyo’s stance on the validity of having a vet, if shot once, step out and proclaim his stance. The 2nd half of the post does somewhat contradicts his 1st half as he is suggesting that the story plot stated 2 bullets to indicate that GCQ was shot twice. He uses the story plot to state that Pyo might be hiding something, but doesn’t attack Pyo right away. In all, he has somewhat contributed to the discussions, but haven’t really pressed forwards on anything, besides making the freeloader vote because freeloader did not defend himself. If he was to be given a verdict right now, it would be Town siding unknown because his posts tended to lean towards town-favored actions, but there is no direct effort to prove his stance. [*]Impervious + Show Spoiler +1st quote Sup guys!
I'm just heading out to do something, I'll catch up on everything a bit later tonight.
Cheers! This is just a greeting message, as he replaced someone. 2nd quote Alright, I'm back, and I've read the last ~10 pages to try to get myself up to date. I've probably missed something, but I think I have a good idea on what's going on so far.
On June 07 2011 04:16 Jackal58 wrote: Impervious???? Bah. Obviouscum.
I'll be keeping an eye on you.
Scum.
Btw - GREEN AND YELLOW!!!!!
Ok, now, from what I've seen, I think Jackal's plan is best. I've seen a bunch of "newbie" posts, but that one seriously hinted at finding blues, as well as finding flaws in previously used investigative strategies.
While it may be a "newbie" type post, it also answers a question I ask myself whenever I'm looking at someone - Are they acting in the best interest of the town?
My gut feeling is "no", even though he has so few posts. And, rather than pick on lurkers for the sake of picking on lurkers (since they'll likely be modkilled at some point), I think our best move at the moment is to lynch rookie44. Well, it seems that Impervious has played with Jackal before, and says he’ll keep an eye on him. He agrees, with Jackal’s analysis of rookie and states that he wants to lynch him based on analysis. His thoughts on the lurkers assumes that the lurkers will lurk and that he is not worried about them. Interpret it anyway you want to, there’s many stances on that. 3rd post On June 07 2011 08:39 rookie44 wrote: There is no more of a meaningful explaination i can give.
I will be voting for gtrsrs, not due to an indepth analysis of his posts. But because he talks about town in the 3rd person, which is a very unnatural thing to do. Obviously an indepth analysis would be the best, however there is not much we can go on at this stage, and given that i think any tells will be a metagame failure.
I quite like thinking about metagame, and (though obviously this will be biassed) looking at my posts i have been advacating thinking about the longer term when everyone else was discussing the right now. No blue or red would want to stick out like that.
I am going to bed now so this is the last of it.
(would a mafia give such a poor defence?!!?!?)
I used 3rd person in my 2nd post in the thread. And my first post was a "hi" post.....
What does that tell you about my alignment? That I'm scum?
As for the metagame.....
.....
.....
.....
.....
.....
We need to get the best possible lynch RIGHT NOW. Not 5 days from now. The sooner we hit a couple of reds, the better. So we have to do what we can to hit a red RIGHT NOW.
Don't worry about the "metagame"..... It is a metaphysical construct which will not directly help in any individual game, as players can actually play against said "metagame".
Here, he is saying why planning for the long time is wrong, and indicates that he is playing for the town since the town cannot afford to lets potential scums not get lynched. 4th post On June 07 2011 08:51 Treadmill wrote: I absolutely don't buy the "hunting for blues" nonsense on rookie44. I don't see at all how what he's been saying could lead to blues revealing themselves - one of the people voting for him should lay out the case a bit better.
Show nested quote +
Point by point: 1. Irrelevant. And battle.net mafia is EXTREMELY different from this. 2. No, he isn't asking people to post their roles. He's asking what people think good strategy for blues would be - which is a reasonable question from town and even more sensible for a blue poster. 3. Alternately, he's honestly a newbie asking experienced players what they think we should be doing. 4. Or, he's giving his reason, as a townie, for asking.
The "analysis" is bullshit. This is bandwagonning at its WORST.
If this was a day 2 or later lynch, I'd expect something more convincing. But it's not. If you have a better idea, I'd like to hear it. Here, Impervious is stating that the reasoning that treadmill puts up front has merit, but isn’t convincing enough to change any stances around rookie. He asks treadmill for better ideas, which is fine to do. 5th post ervious Canada. June 07 2011 09:44. Posts 2883 PM Profile Blog Quote # On June 07 2011 09:27 Treadmill wrote: Show nested quote +
Almost anyone else would be a better idea. I'm just bothered that wll of a sudden a bunch of people (xkcd, Kurumi, Senj) are jumping on voting for a guy, a handful of hours before the lynch. Especially considering: Senj is a lurker who's posted the bare minimum to be considered active amazingxkcd who's posted a whole lot of nothing - his only contributions have been posting one-liners about why other people's ideas are bad Kurumi - who's been posting a lot, and insanely aggressively, and accusing everyone flat-out of being scum, but when he decides who to vote for he posts a chort and uncertain post wihtout really explaining.
It just seems like the analysis is a lot worse on this case than it has been on a bunch of others - but a couple people started voting for him and set a bandwagon rolling.
As for scummiest posts, I still haven't seen anything to top this:
Hide nested quote - On June 06 2011 14:21 freeloader625 wrote: It's true. I spent most of the weekend watching MLG, both streams.
I was keeping an eye on this for all mirror matches though, I just chose not to comment.
On June 06 2011 12:54 CjrNinja wrote: I can't confirm what the actual role PM said for mafia members. But looking back through this thread I did find:
On May 30 2011 01:33 Varpulis wrote: On May 30 2011 00:34 blackone wrote: On May 29 2011 06:47 Meapak_Ziphh wrote: PMs PMs are not allowed in this game.
This confuses me because from the other Mafia threads I read I feel that PMs are a pretty important part of the game. In particular, how is the scum supposed to operate without PMs?
To clarify: The no PMs rule does not apply to scum. They are still allowed to communicate outside of the thread. Town aligned and third party roles must keep everything inside the thread, however, for the sake of balance and to keep the game fun for everybody.
So it's already been addressed during the signup stage. Freeloader was probably just lazy and didn't read through the entire thread.
Yes, I'm ashamed to admit I let pages 2-8 or 9 go without reading it, I assumed it was all just full of "/in's." I only read the first post and posts since the game has officially started.
On June 06 2011 13:17 DeMorcerf wrote: On June 06 2011 12:47 Treadmill wrote: + Show Spoiler + Since then, he hasn't posted in the thread at all. And I can confirm that he's been on TL - check his post history, he's posted a whole bunch in today's MLG live report. Either he's scum and waiting for suspicion to die down or he's town and has given up and resigned himself to getting lynched.
Or he simply cannot extract himself from the excitement that is MLG, I know I couldn't for most of this weekend. I think that the reasoning that has come forth from some of the experienced players should convince us to leave freeloader for now and concentrate on others --- I agree with Alderan's suspicions of Amazingxkcd (posts that just repeat the description of the game) and Grush57 (confusing contradictions) and the strange hasty back and forth behavior of Jimboo pointed out by TranceStorm.
On June 06 2011 11:43 redFF wrote: + Show Spoiler +
qft -___________-
I quote this to point of that redFF's only post in the game is just this one-liner spam. Perhaps he is too busy in his other mafia game to contribute something more useful to his post, but then he should have waited until he had more time to post.
Ohhh dirtay! I didn't not realize outside posts were fair game for this! I was under the impression (initially) that you can't click on ppls profiles/outside posts to avoid cheating or w/e. But I guess that's fair game.
What do I honestly think and why haven't I really commented even though I threw myself under the bus? I'll give a longer explanation come closer to Day 1's end. Har har har, another "bad defensive" post by me :D Take it as you may.
That reeks of inexperienced townie to me, not scum..... Impervious states that freeloader is just inexperienced, rather than scummy, but does not addresses anything else. 6th post On June 07 2011 09:35 Treadmill wrote: Another interesting point: Jackal58 makes his case against rookie44, it's pretty weak, the people posting aren't convinced. Nobody but him votes for rookie44. Then an hour later Show nested quote +
Show nested quote +
Show nested quote +
Look at the time stamps, within 3 minutes of each other. And none of them posted for 2 hours previous to bandwagonning rookie. It looks liek co-ordination.
I didn't notice this. Nice catch.
I'm re-thinking my position right now. Will post when I think it through. He thanks treadmill on his observations surrounding the timing issues that my vote and the others had. This can be convincing that I may or may not be mafia, but at least he is willing to consider the issue. 6th post Lol, then don't vote for him if you think there's a 10% chance of him being scum, since a purely random lynch is 20. He just points out a mistake made by alderan’s decision on rookie, showing probabilities. If Impervious is a townie, then Alderan becomes more suspicious since voting on a 20% lynch is more pro-town than a 10% lynch. 7th post Ok, I thought it through looking at a variety of different situations, and I believe that we need to push for a lynch of one of those 3, rather than rookie.
Why? Because, it's likely that all 3 (or 2 of them) are mafia, based on the timing (and assuming that rookie is town and we have 2 or so vigis in the game).
When that one flips, here's the outcomes:
Scum - We get vigis to hit one or both of the others overnight. Early knockdown to 3KP for the mafia.
Town - We get a vigi to hit rookie as an insurance policy for switching (although we can argue the merit of this move overnight, and should rookie turn out to be red, Treadmill would be a decent policy lynch tomorrow because of how hard he's been defending).
So, if we're going to hit one of them, we need to pick the scummiest one, in case it's a freak accident that they all voted at the same time like that. And we've gotta do it quick (I'm gone in ~1 hr).
Basically, if we switch - in the worst case scenario we give our vigis a good target tonight, and best case, we hit 2 or 3 mafia. Pretty damn good first lynch/night imo.
Now, I asked myself "have they been acting in the best interest of the town?", and the one that really stood out as a "no" was xkcd, so I'd agree with a switch to him right now.
So, I'm changing my vote. ##Vote: amazingxkcd He starts to lay out possible courses of actions for the town to do, based on whether rookie gets lynched or not. He then changes his vote to me (T_T im townie dammit), but only based it on that I have not been acting in the best interest of the town.( I still throw in that I am a townie (Mafia knows that too), and I have been trying to figure out everyone’s influence to help me play this game). I try to argue his change of vote as weak and feeble. 8th post On June 07 2011 10:16 iGrok wrote: Hide nested quote - On June 07 2011 10:13 Impervious wrote: Ok, I thought it through looking at a variety of different situations, and I believe that we need to push for a lynch of one of those 3, rather than rookie.
Why? Because, it's likely that all 3 (or 2 of them) are mafia, based on the timing (and assuming that rookie is town and we have 2 or so vigis in the game).
When that one flips, here's the outcomes:
Scum - We get vigis to hit one or both of the others overnight. Early knockdown to 3KP for the mafia.
Town - We get a vigi to hit rookie as an insurance policy for switching (although we can argue the merit of this move overnight, and should rookie turn out to be red, Treadmill would be a decent policy lynch tomorrow because of how hard he's been defending).
So, if we're going to hit one of them, we need to pick the scummiest one, in case it's a freak accident that they all voted at the same time like that. And we've gotta do it quick (I'm gone in ~1 hr).
Basically, if we switch - in the worst case scenario we give our vigis a good target tonight, and best case, we hit 2 or 3 mafia. Pretty damn good first lynch/night imo.
Now, I asked myself "have they been acting in the best interest of the town?", and the one that really stood out as a "no" was xkcd, so I'd agree with a switch to him right now.
So, I'm changing my vote. ##Vote: amazingxkcd
which 3?
On June 07 2011 09:35 Treadmill wrote: Another interesting point: Jackal58 makes his case against rookie44, it's pretty weak, the people posting aren't convinced. Nobody but him votes for rookie44. Then an hour later Hide nested quote - On June 07 2011 06:28 Kurumi wrote: ##unvote ##vote: Rookie44
Hide nested quote - On June 07 2011 06:29 Senj wrote: ##vote: Rookie44
Hide nested quote - On June 07 2011 06:31 amazingxkcd wrote: ##VOTE: Rookie44
Look at the time stamps, within 3 minutes of each other. And none of them posted for 2 hours previous to bandwagonning rookie. It looks liek co-ordination.
I was in the middle of writing up something a little more in depth on why I chose xkcd, but my "1 hr" has turned into "5 minutes".
I've switched my vote, and I hope some others do the same. It's not that I think rookie is a bad lynch, it's just that I think this lynch will give us more info, and if I'm wrong, we got rid of a really negative townie (which can end up derailing us in the later stages of the game).
PS, if they all show up as town, as does Treadmill, then you guys HAVE to lynch me. Not doing so would be completely suicidal..... This is a mistake, lynching for information, rather than based on strength of cases. His last sentence indicates that he feels uncomfortable about his decisions. Personally, I would have stated that rookie get DT checked rather than be hit because of the fact that this is a rookie game and players are not going to be that good regardless. 9th post Damnit. I saw it too when I went over your posts again..... Sorry rookie.
Also, I'd like to voice my opinion of "using our KP early" due to the loss of our medics. While it sucks to lose both, some games don't have medics, or medics are bad/inactive/unlucky and are essentially no better than another townie, and the game is still far from over. It might suck for a vigi to die without using his power, but it's better he doesn't use it than he uses it badly. He apologizes of attacking rookie and recognizes his mistake. Then, he talks about the various scenarios where the roles of blues are affected by the player strengths and weaknesses. 10th post On June 07 2011 21:36 35spike1 wrote: Hide nested quote - On June 07 2011 21:25 supersoft wrote: On June 07 2011 18:52 Jackal58 wrote: Shit. Sorry Rookie. And no. I am not the best player in this game. If you have that in your head flush it out now. I already said I suck on day 1 and 2. I made a case. I was wrong. All I can do is move on.
i told you guys that it was stupid. we should have someone inactive get hanged. that mediclynch was either retarded or done by the mafia. if the mafia stood behind that, i think they wanted to draw attention from their newby-member freeload. he would have been lynched if rookie wasn't... i am not sure about that, but it might be.
i also don't buy the "i am bad the first two days" thing. from now on noone should trust these accusations against newby player just because they ask something related to how the mafiatalk works or what strategy may be used... arguments for lynching someone should be based on his votings and his accusations
Everybody is bad during the first few days, we don't have enough content to get anything solid. Jackal is stll in the clear IMO. He just got unlucky, and everybody jumped on it. The weird thing is, why did everyone jump on it?
I'm not sure. Early on, there was some momentum against freeloader, and that completely shifted from a single post.
We may be able to look back at today's vote to nail some scum, or it could mean absolutely nothing at all. However, we won't know until after we nail some more scum, so there's no point in worrying about it too much right now. These types of swings don't have to be influenced by the mafia. He is just responding as to why the bandwagon shifted happened. 11th post On June 07 2011 21:28 35spike1 wrote: Show nested quote +
It's combined, 72 hours in total for posting.
I looked through Lafali's posts and none of them had any content/names...
Are all the medics gone now or is there probably one left?
I'd assume that we have none (although it's completely possible that we started with 4 medics). The reason for that is that we can't really have them stack saves anymore (assuming 1 or 2 live), so if the mafia want someone dead, it'll happen. We may get lucky and they end up saving someone still, but I wouldn't count on it.
Obviously, if there are any DTs out there (in this setup, it's possible that there are none), do not roleclaim yet. You're going to have to assume that there's noone there to protect you. But leave us some clues based on what you find, so that we can find something in case you end up dying. He states that the DTs are becoming more powerful since the medics count drastically went down, and gives them words of advice. Very pro-town behavior. 12th post On June 08 2011 00:37 Xedat wrote: I want to remind everyone that it is night, don't post anything too critical or it will influence the mafia's hits. If you are concerned that you might die save your post for the last few minutes before day.
Agreed.
However, we should probably try to stir up some decision for any blues that are unsure of what to do. We've probably got 2+ DTs who have to check someone, and 2+ vigis who may be itching to hit scum tonight. And it's still possible that we have a medic.
If we have a medic left, there's a few people I'd suggest saving. One would be myself (obviously :D), another would be treadmill, a third would be freeloader, and a fourth would be Jackal. Jackal has this uncanny ability to either be very, very right in his analysis, or very, very wrong in his analysis, so losing him wouldn't be great, as long as we can figure out if he's right or wrong. iGrok isn't a bad choice either.
There's a few people who should be high priority vigi targets. amazingxkcd is definitely my #1 choice, but jimbooo wouldn't be a bad target either. senj or kurumi instead of xkcd wouldn't be a bad choice either.
As for DT checks, I wouldn't recommend xkcd, senj and kurumi right now. If xkcd gets killed tonight (or one of the other two instead), we'll have 2 people as good lynch targets if he flips red, and it's hardly better than a blind guess if he flips green, so it's not really worth a check right now.
Voting for the same person at the same time like that is really wierd, and I can't help but think that it's coordinated. My bad if I'm wrong, but it just looks soooooo bad..... So it would be a big waste of a DT check imo.
As for who to actually check - I'm not too sure. There's quite a few good people to check, I just wanted to point out some obviously bad ones to check.
So, if you want to argue any part this with me, or have anything to add, now's the time to do it. He expands upon his notions of DT checks, making suggestions for bad one and postulating who might the good ones be (Don’t kill me please T_T, vigi!). 13th post Treadmill - he tried to get everyone to switch away from rookie, and I've been getting a pretty solid town vibe from him the entire game. He's not someone I want to die right now.
Freeloader - there's definitely uncertainty here. But I have a reason for wanting him alive tomorrow.
Jackal - He's really good at analysis when he's tunneled someone. He may not always be on the right track, but he brings up some good points, and is easily able to start discussions, which are good for the town. I don't know whether he's scum or not yet, but for now, he can definitely be useful to the town. He's one of the people I'd want to check as DT, to make sure he's on my side, but, if he is scum, he's likely the GF, so a DT check would actually be pretty useless anyways. He lists 3 people whom he has opinions of. He seems to trust treadmill, but I will want to wait to see what treadmill brings up later to confirm his behavior model. He is uncertain on freeloader, but why does he want to keep him alive? Finally, someone other than me suspects jackal of being the GF (I list details in Jackal’s analysis). 14th post I was just throwing out suggestions of who I'd want to see alive tomorrow. I don't see any really, really obvious people, but these are some decent choices, for a variety of reasons.
Also, if someone trying to draw attention away from a blue is scummy, then I think we've got different mindsets.
I really didn't want to go into this much detail, because this may end up swaying the decision of the mafia. -_- He’s afraid of the mafia changing decisions because of what he has to say. Pro-town vibe coming to me here. 15th post And, ironically, your best scum read ever has come while you were scum. Well, he continues to confirm my theory on Jackal being Godfather. 16th post Ok, so, now that it's daytime, I'd like to ask everyone to do something simple for me, before we start discussing anything more serious.
I'd like to know what guides/games you have read, as well as what games you have played. Just take like 10 seconds to post a quick list plz.
If you've played in a few already, I know you're well exposed to TL Mafia. I'm asking for this information I want to get a feeling for how well adjusted our "newbie" players will be. I'm pretty sure that this may prove useful to us in the future. I wanted to ask it during the previous day, but I showed up pretty late for the party. I am not happy with this statement. He is wanting to ask who are the noobs, but all the noobs should know that they have coaches they can refer to if they want to. I understand his reasonings behind it, but I feel that It was unnecessary to do so. 17th post On June 08 2011 21:42 iGrok wrote: Haven't read it yet, but I'm going to go ahead and nominate Treadmill for the "Best Rookie (no pun intended) Award".
Hats off to you, doing analysis like a boss, standing up for what you think, and making really good reads on people (like the aforementioned Rookie).
Seconded. Holy crap man. I expected some good things from you, but this is definitely above and beyond. Whether right or wrong, that's one hell of an analysis.
Ok, so, just in case some of you missed it, I'd like to quote myself. On June 08 2011 13:12 Impervious wrote: Ok, so, now that it's daytime, I'd like to ask everyone to do something simple for me, before we start discussing anything more serious.
I'd like to know what guides/games you have read, as well as what games you have played. Just take like 10 seconds to post a quick list plz.
If you've played in a few already, I know you're well exposed to TL Mafia. I'm asking for this information I want to get a feeling for how well adjusted our "newbie" players will be. I'm pretty sure that this may prove useful to us in the future. I wanted to ask it during the previous day, but I showed up pretty late for the party.
And thanks to those of you who have answered already. He congratulates treadmill on being able to make a good analysis. @Treadmill, I UNDERSTAND YOUR ACCUSATIONS AND ANALYSIS OF ME, AND I JUST WANT TO SAY GOOD JOB. HOWEVER, I KNOW THAT YOU ARE WRONG ON ALMOST EVERYTHING IN YOUR ANALYSIS, BUT I AM NOT GOING TO LABEL YOU AS SCUM MATERIAL YET.
18th post
EDWOP: I don't accuse Impervious of being scum,but that's kind of fishing. Mafia already has info advantage,don't give more info they don't need. Impervious,that's horrible idea to say everything about Yourself. We are dead sure there's at least one experienced player in Mafia team who'll look into people's meta and try to deduce if they bare the same role this game.
I want to see if they're accustomed to the style of Mafia that TL plays. It's very different from the type you'll find on battle.net, which has become pretty common.
Plus, I am kind of fishing with this data. I want to go back and see if there's some scumslips based on what people don't know.
Hey, he states that he is fishing with the data he receives. I would agree since it is a noobie game, and we can conclude based on previous experience.
19th post
ve seen a bunch of things that are pretty questionable, depending on what the player knows/doesn't know. I want to find out for sure by referencing the specific post and what knowledge the players have. If something is out of whack, I'll bring it up.
Extensions of ideas from 18th post.
In all, Impervious seems to be playing for a cautious playstyle. He has voted for me once because my actions seems a bit scummy (they don’t, mind you), and the vibe I get from him is pro-town. Verdict on him is:
Townie
[*] amazingxkcd + Show Spoiler + If you want information about me, go look at treadmill’s analysis of me. It’s a good read, but it is almost completely wrong. I give myself a verdict as: BAD-ASS 6-pack 400 APM TOWNIE HERO
[*]cherubael + Show Spoiler +1st post On June 05 2011 13:35 aprudds wrote: Hide nested quote - On June 05 2011 12:44 freeloader625 wrote: Omg I'm so excited for this. I read all the rules twice and just want to ask to anyone willing to answer (before the game starts) since these were not answered in the thread rules:
1) Since PMs are not allowed, how would mafia communicate with each other? 2) Once someone dies whether it be by votes or mafia hit, will their roles be revealed?
Thanks and GL everyone! (I've only played SC2 Mafia before and got hooked)
Hmm, a bit suspicious no? Right when the PM are getting sent out too. Scum slip?
A bit of a bold accusation, I would say. However, I do have to agree, the first question does look a bit suspicious. After all, a townie would have *no* reason to ask such a question, as they can't PM anyway. He states that the accusation that aprudds makes is bold, but agrees since freeloader’s questions indicate that he really didn’t read the thread. 2nd post On June 05 2011 14:06 freeloader625 wrote: Show nested quote +
All I can say is, all too often the first one to speak is "put on trial." Sleep on it.
So...you asked a question so you could be lynched day one...alright...that makes sense. (note the sarcasm)
Either you give a legitimate, straight reason to ask this sort of question as townie, or you clearly are just trying to save your butt after having messed and shown your role as mafia.
Also, Aril, you seem to be very quick in defending him, while not wanting to accuse anyone. Are you afraid your role will be too obvious if you accuse someone? Also, what reason do you have to defend him? What has he done for you? The only reason would be because you are both mafia, and you are trying to look out for him. He pressures Aril to respond to his defense of freeloader, and continues to believes that freeloader is scummish. 3rd post Defending people in this situation isn't wrong. There is a suspicious atmosphere floating around everyone and half of us are townies so you know what I mean, we want to get some conversation out here so we can actual get a good look at what a everyone's saying, and it only hurts the town if they're afraid everything they say is going to get them falsely accused.
We shouldn't all gang up on people right away and if we do then I'll be on the defending side until they make their case and I can make my own reasonable judgement. This post gives me conflicting vibes. He accuses freeloader of being scummish and others who defend freeloader, but then states that he will defend the accused until they are proven guilty. I am really confused and this is giving scummy vibes to me, as the last 2 posts were pro-town vibes. 4th post This and the comment on the inactivelist is the only relevant information 35spike1 has posted. This leaves him off the list, but he seems to have nothing relevant to say. This seems a little suspicious, so I think that keeping an eye on him would be a good idea, though I wouldn't say he's scum...yet. This post really means nothing. Its still too early into the game to make an inactive list and he puts suspicion on 35spike1 for making a stupid list. After freeloader’s case was forgotten, he didn’t talk at all. He just left the game way too early to me, and is on lurker status right now. I normally am more suspicious of lurkers due to their nature, so the verdict on cherubael is [B] SCUMMISH Unknown since his first posts were ok, but then it gets weirder.
|
GRAND OLD AMERICA16375 Posts
[*]teamsolid + Show Spoiler +1st post First time playing this game on TL although I've played plenty of the SC2 version. Personally, I don't think anyone is really that suspicious yet except freeloader625 for his questions. Isn't it more likely that mafia are lurking than townies, so latching onto other random posts and picking out the smallest details seems kinda pointless, and just gets us paranoid at each other. NOOB ALERT! NOOB ALERT! IMPERVIOUS, HERE YOU GO! But seriously, this is ridiculously scummy because he is trying to avoid confrontations on the basis of finer details. 2nd post On June 07 2011 09:35 Treadmill wrote: Another interesting point: Jackal58 makes his case against rookie44, it's pretty weak, the people posting aren't convinced. Nobody but him votes for rookie44. Then an hour later Show nested quote +
Show nested quote +
Show nested quote +
Look at the time stamps, within 3 minutes of each other. And none of them posted for 2 hours previous to bandwagonning rookie. It looks liek co-ordination.
Also check Senj, for the bandwagoning on Rookie. Clear Lurker here, given the timestamp differences between his two posts. He wants a check on Senj just because of the timestamp vote case. 3rd post Could've been a Veteran that got hit? Otherwise someone probably got a lucky heal (seems unlikely though) Maybe a vet got hit, maybe a medic saved someone. We don’t know yet, so don’t state the obvious. We have a lurker, a person who didn’t contribute at all to anything, but his posts are too ambigious. His verdict is SCUMMISH Unknown [*] 35spike1 + Show Spoiler +1st post On June 06 2011 07:36 supersoft wrote: okay I didn't know I have to vote... sorry for that. But since I have to, I voted monsterDrakar.
I voted for him because he voted against theawesomeall with a poor reason. I think theawesomeall -with his list - is obviously a scary player for mafiosi and other people that don't want to be in the spotlight. At first, I was a bit shocked too, when I saw my name at the lurkerlist. But now I think it's the right move to really start this. So I think monsterDrakar is scum and wants to undermine the credibility of someone who puts some facts on the table.
We don't need an inactive list at all. Inactives will get mod-killed soon enough. It's also too early for a lurkerlist, considering we're only a day in. Speaking of which, how much time is left in this day? Can you vote during the night? That part wasn't included by Jackal. Just answering a question about lurker lists. Then he asks a question about voting in the night. There is nothing to indicate his position here. 2nd post Kurumi looks fine to me. Mafia tend to lay low and bandwagon, Kurumi is definitely fearless for Mafia.
On June 06 2011 05:37 Kurumi wrote: Show nested quote +
Asking questions, its been a bit since he last posted an opinion of his own (aside from other people are "Rats"). Nothing really here.+ Show Spoiler [Tiny supersoft read here] +
He isn't lurking, he's just been demolishing half the potential mafia population.
Show nested quote +
This is actually a very interesting post. As you can see, Kurumi is mis-representing both Lafali and Treadmill. Neither of them "advocate mis-lynches", they simply stated that a mislynch was ok, and even probable. Neither of them are anti-town, and Treadmill is actually playing pro-town.
They were happy to vote for someone as soon as they were accused. FreeLoader had barely done anything, yet they were both happy to destroy him. Freeloader will probably now die if you look at the Voting Thread. If he turns up town, I'd be very suspicious of those two. He defends Kurumi by stating that Kurumi’s behavior is to aggressive for him to be mafia. He then puts suspicion on Lafali and treadmill (Lafali flipped scum), so he was somewhat correct here. 3rd post I had a quick read-through of the early posts and Treadmill grabbed my attention.
+ Show Spoiler +
Treadmill is rather relaxed about voting at first, but within 2 hours he's all ready to go and vote against FreeLoader. After seeing several people agree, he eagerly jumps on the bandwagon.
+ Show Spoiler +
Treadmill's jumping at whatever reason he can to revote against Freeloader. With 7 votes up against him, I'm not surprised his main concern was getting lynched day1. More investigation into treadmill, backs it up with more evidence and theories. Treadmill has already been noted by many people, so suspicion pileups is making Treadmill seem scummish. 4th post On June 06 2011 17:49 CjrNinja wrote: 35spike1
+ Show Spoiler +
+ Show Spoiler +
Can you please explain to me what it was that made you change your mind in the time between you making those two posts?
I was really excited at the start of the game so I kinda jumped in lol, later I realized something like what Freeloader did would just be too obvious to be Mafia. He defends himself for CjrNinja for being too dumb about freeloader’s position and apologizes about it. 5th post I voted Treadmill, reasoning here. He gives the reasons why he voted for treadmill. The reasoning is not the strongest, but given its day 1, it is well based to make the appropriate case. 6th post On June 07 2011 21:03 monsterDrakar wrote: Well he was either overlooked or the rules mean that you need to have just 1 post for day1 and night1 combined. That's my interpretation of "day/night cycle" at least.
It's combined, 72 hours in total for posting.
I looked through Lafali's posts and none of them had any content/names...
Are all the medics gone now or is there probably one left? He is simply responding to monsterdrakar and comfirming lafali’s posts being scummy. 7th post Everybody is bad during the first few days, we don't have enough content to get anything solid. Jackal is stll in the clear IMO. He just got unlucky, and everybody jumped on it. The weird thing is, why did everyone jump on it? He states that its hard to pick good lynches early in the game, but doesn’t know about the bandwagonning (HINT: JACKAL IS GODFATHER, UH OH!) 8th post For all blues skimming the thread, this last paragraph is VERY IMPORTANT
On June 07 2011 21:03 monsterDrakar wrote: Obviously, if there are any DTs out there (in this setup, it's possible that there are none), do not roleclaim yet. You're going to have to assume that there's noone there to protect you. But leave us some clues based on what you find, so that we can find something in case you end up dying.
As obvious as this might be, we can't risk any screw ups. Just reiterating Impervious’s post about DTs needing to keep hiding. Makes sense from a town stand point. 9th post This is my very first game Had a read of the first Day/Night of How to Improve: Mafia XXX Analysis Checked out some general information Read a very small portion (8 pages?) of a recent game, just for the feel of it. Giving mafia history to Impervious. This is a bit gullible because Impervious later stated that he was fishing for experience. Spike should take more care to questions like that next time. 10th post I don't understand what happened. 2 kills? Mafia has 3 KP. Does this mean they 2shot GGQ in case he was vet? 3 Medics seems unlikely. This also means no vigis took shots first night. He’s confused about why only two people died. We can spectulate for so long about the possibilities, but until people come forward with more information, we can’t say much about it. In all, 35Spike1 has been playing like a cautious player here, seems a bit afraid to really attack and accuse anyone, but he has not been playing like a scum either. Verdict is TOWNIE [*] Alderan + Show Spoiler +1st post @Vain Now he is stating that a townie does have reasons to ask such a question what is indeed true. The interesting part of this post is at the second line. He is now telling us "dont mind me, i'm new to the game" and diverting attention off him. Telling you are new and therefore if are doing things out of the ordinary its just your inexperience is at the best not very good town play.
If he is indeed as inexperienced as he would have us believe it is safe to assume that he is not familiar with good town play to begin with. Combine that with your assessment that The question itself was not very scummy indeed. If i were a scum i would pm it to the host instead of posting it in the thread. and he looks a lot like a misguided town. Making a statement that Freeloader is just a misguided town noobie. 2nd post n June 06 2011 01:08 Jimbooo wrote: I accidentally posted my last post without finishing , sorry. Im not sure if freeloader was TRYING to be suspicious with his last post , but after thinking it through I think he is probably just new. That small amount of evidence got a discussion started , but I think people also voted slightly hastily. It looks very suspicious that so many people voted for freeloader right after he was accused.
I agree. Granted any veteran scum would never post a vote that quickly in my opinion but if we're going to start anywhere that seems a good place as any, especially considering there are a lot of first timers in this game. Agreeing with the statement that Jimbooo made with the freeloader case, then adding that newbies would do this kind of thing rather than veteran players. 3rd post I do not understand what you mean by this, sorry. Can you clarify whether "insane" is a good thing or a bad thing in this context; and what does "tunnel the roster" mean?
Accusing everyone in the game of being scum is generally not a good thing. It does not, as a fact. Kind of obvious to say that, but hey it’s a noobie game, so you can say it. 4th post On June 06 2011 02:56 amazingxkcd wrote: It is quite clear that it can be seen who are the main talkers for both side. The only question is now how to distinguish between the two sides and how to act upon it
It is posts like this (especially for your first post) that we are trying to avoid. All you did in this post was state the premise of the game, and make a likely incorrect assumption that there are mafia among the "main talkers" this early in the game.
Very very scummy post. Yes, it was a scummy post, I did that on purpose to see who would respond to it and why. Your response is more of a town-like behavior, so I got some info on you. I could have said something better, I will give you that. 5th post On June 06 2011 03:38 amazingxkcd wrote: Show nested quote +
interesting first post there, all ready trying to set up accustation upon me for supposedly making a scummy post when in reality i am only simply making observation. You already got into my list of suspicious people by derailing a innocent first post when we still have around 30+ hours left to figure out each other.
Pretty defensive considering all I said was that those are posts we are trying to avoid in exchange for more constructive ones. The post was scummy, but that doesn't mean you are scum. Playing it smart here, good for you. That was an another bait post to see more of your reaction, and you confirmed more of my thoughts. 6th post Here's a list of a couple people who seem to be acting a little scummy. (Not saying for sure scum, just people that might not be) Lets get some meaningful conversation going.
Amazingxkcd
I've already kind of voiced this opinion but I'm going to expound upon my earlier analysis.
Let's look at his posts.
It is quite clear that it can be seen who are the main talkers for both side. The only question is now how to distinguish between the two sides and how to act upon it
This post, obviously vague, of little help to the town, and posted directly after he appeared on TheAwesomeAll's “Lurker List”.
When I pointed out this was a fishy post he responded with this:
interesting first post there, all ready trying to set up accustation upon me for supposedly making a scummy post when in reality i am only simply making observation. You already got into my list of suspicious people by derailing a innocent first post when we still have around 30+ hours left to figure out each other.
Obviously immediately went on the defensive, turned and pointed a finger at me, and suggest that the town take its time “figuring each other out” instead of having discussion that is inherently pro-town.
In fact his only “contribution” to town discussion was this post:
Please refer to these guides on playing TL mafia.
For town: aidnai, GMarshal
For mafia: bumatlarge, chaos13
LSB's Newbie Guide Mafiascum Newbie Guide Introduction to Mafia (Flash) Ver's town guide Ace's Mafia Manifesto Qatol's Town Guide
So his only contribution to the town is copying and pasting something that is in the third post of this thread? Interesting.
Grush57
This is an example of someone who is acting scummy, but who could be just a really bad townie. Not advising we use our first lynch on him but its someone to look out for (maybe DT check?). Here's why:
First, without posting anything in the thread he immediately voted for Freeloader. Could definitely be viewed as a rookie maf move.
When called out about it he failed to respond. In fact he did not contribute anything to the thread until the inactive list to which he responded:
Im not inactive, I just dont feel like anybody can accuse this early.
Wait? What? After blindly bandwagon voting not even 4 hours into the game? Inconsistency tends to be a maf trait.
When called out he responded:
Yea true, I stupidly joined the bandwagon to lynch freeloader from his posts.
Again, Wait? What?!
A little later when calling out omgCRAZY he posts this gem, his third post.
Says the person with only 1 post so far?
OmgCRAZY had posted several times.....
More to come tomorrow. Would love to hear what everyone thinks. Here, you offer analysis of your thoughts and the critical thing you did is that you waited to make a decision, rather than go right away. A lot of people made many errors by not doing this. Post 7-8 are not related to the game, so I disregarded it. 9th post On June 06 2011 15:18 iGrok wrote: Jackal58 is good. GGQ is good, borderline very good (no offense Jackal ♥). Vain is good. I'd like to think I'm decent. Impervious is... interesting haha. Kurumi has played 3 games, and Jackal called him out later on. Whats important here is that Kurumi lumps himself in with very good players that town should listen to. He's attempting to establish a position of power for himself.
On June 06 2011 16:55 iGrok wrote: Personally, I think Jackal58, GGQ, or Vain would be great people to look up to and have confidence in - they're all pretty experienced and -good- players. Whomever among them we can confirm/be reasonably certain is town should be looked up to.
Is this a mistype or are you getting legitimate town reads from all 3 of those players? If, as you said in your first post, yourself, Jackal, GGQ, and Vain are the experienced players, so it is safe to assume that at least one would have been placed with the mafia, particularly in a noobie game. I think a couple seem to be acting suspicious, but it's day 1 and that could be for multiple reasons.
Also, I'm going to ahead and voting for amazingxkcd, just in case something happens to me at work today and I won't be able to get a vote in.
@ amazingkcd, I'm really just waiting on you to refute the analysis I did earlier. His analysis of me was a bit weak, comparing to treadmill’s analysis of me. I believe that he should have held your vote since there were other stronger cases developing and the case against me only opened after some scum noticed the time laspses and pressured me. I gave him an analysis, and this analysis also counts towards that. Post 11 has to do with smurfing, not related to the game. 12th post On June 07 2011 02:53 iGrok wrote: Show nested quote +
Ok, yeah that makes a lot more sense.
Yeah, I'm starting to see how Kurumi could be a townie, but I could also see him as a scum who felt the pressure and is trying to change his tune. I still don't thing he should be lynched today. I'm trying to think of who should be, but I really don't know :/
But you agree that it shouldn't be freeloader? Here, he is asking iGrok for some advice, meaning that he places trust in iGrok as a fellow member. I have explained that iGrok is a townie, so this helps in the fact that he also feels that iGrok is a townie so I can feel more confident in Alderan’s decision. Post 13 just welcomes Impervious into the game, nothing related with the game itself. 14th post On June 07 2011 05:47 TranceStorm wrote: Show nested quote +
Would you mind doing a post-by-post analysis of rookie44's posts? (There are only 3) Right now I can't really see how subtly he is fishing for blues. After all, we don't know how experienced he really is, so I would like a little more clarification as to your accusation.
Wait so you're saying instead of voting for new players being dumb you suggest us to vote for a player who has never played before on the forums (admittedly so) for suggesting that veteran players toss out potential strategies?
Sure it's a LITTLE scummy, but until I see some elaboration on your "very subtle in fishing for blues" I'm going to have to disagree with you. His reasoning to disagree with trancestorm is justified, but I feel that it is a bit hasty since trancestorm is probably inexperienced in dissecting posts apart. Post 15 is an EBWOP, disregard, Post 16 is him believing that trancestorm’s analysis is a bit weak, nothing much to discuss there. In all, Alderan has made some slip ups, but there is nothing clear to indicate that he is of scummish material, but there is no direct proof he isn’t. His postings have been a bit basic, but he did make some good analysis, so verdict is TOWN SIDING UNKOWN
|