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Treadmill
Canada2833 Posts
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Treadmill
Canada2833 Posts
First, I get a bit less precise and coherent towards the end, sorry about that. However it is his earlier posts that I feel are more convincing, anyways, tthe ones before he started to get accused. So, top 5 reasons that amazingxkcd is mafia: 1. posting a lot but not saying anything, really. 2. getting very defensive on receiving almost any attack 3. the rookie44 lynch 4. straw-manning; lying about the content of other people's arguments 5. the rookie44 lynch again - the first time for how it happened (the timeings of votes, the scurrilous arguments) and the second time for howit ended, how xkcd seemed to just not care about whether rookie was guilty, how he never considered the possibility that he was wrong or that rookie was a blue, and how he completely stopped engaging with the issue after a certain point. | ||
Treadmill
Canada2833 Posts
But I wouldn't be surprised if it was only the trio of Senj, Kurumi, and xkcd that were mafia there. Maybe 1 more at most. They didn't need the votes, so why make themselves more suspicious? I'm also not discounting the notion of the vote timing being coincidence, which would maybe free up some room for Jimbooo or Adonis to be scum maybe. I think one of the big questions today is gonna be iGrok. Honestly I don't see the case against him at all. gtsrs has been down his throat since day one, as has Kurumi, but I kinda feel like a lot of the supicion of him just comes from them flaming him. I wouldn't be surprised if both were also scum - maybe Pyo, a little more likely not. He seems the least irrational in his criticisms. | ||
Treadmill
Canada2833 Posts
On June 08 2011 23:15 Jackal58 wrote: Kudos to you Treadmill. I am not diminishing your efforts or disputing you but I would like to provide a little advice and insight. When you do an analysis like that don't post it all at once. Town has the collective IQ of a sea cucumber. Half the people in the game won't read it all. Half of those remaining will forget about it before day ends. Spoon feed it. Smaller chunks. Throughout the day. Allow people to digest it. Allow discussion to generate around it. Those discussions are invaluable later when we are trying to separate town from scum. Again I am not ripping on you just trying to provide a little advice on how to disseminate your analysis so it has a greater impact. Hrrrm. Fair enough. And thank you, I'm still a newbie so I'm flying pretty blind. I finally took the time to read through todays posts - and I also took a quick look at iGrok's posts. I now think that iGrok is town. On the other hand, though, I can see how he comes across as a bit of a self-important ass (sorry...), and is rubbing some people the wrong way. So I think he's attracting some attention because of that. To a more experienced player (maybe gtsrs or Jackal) - iGrok made the point that when the night post talks about two people, and two shots on GGQ that translates as the mafia using 2 KP on him - can one of you confirm this? Cause that would simplify things for us a bit. | ||
Treadmill
Canada2833 Posts
+ Show Spoiler + On June 09 2011 10:31 heist wrote: Ok before the bandwagon on iGrok starts to get too much momentum, I felt like I had to intervene. The evidence is much too inconclusive. Sprungjeezy is looking at his posts through a mafia bias and I will try to do the opposite to provide some measure of balance. Mine will be in italics (btw sry i couldnt get through the formatting issues of the last parts of the post) On June 08 2011 23:43 Sprungjeezy wrote: My Analysis of iGrok + Show Spoiler + On June 05 2011 15:36 iGrok wrote: In the shadows lies A peculiar type of Man Kuze is my name. In this game, I will start all of my posts with haikus. Enjoy ^^ He has plenty of reasons to be a townie. Don't even think about that kind of McCarthy Bullshit this early in the game. Anyone voting this early deserves some measure of suspicion. Also, I am schwasted, so this may not make a lot of sense. (White Russians are the best!) But. If you are new to mafia, welcome. A quick word of advice: Think before you act. Those people who have already voted are acting too hastily. a 40 man game is much more about reasoning than putting pressure on someone. And the only reason you would vote this early is to put pressure on someone. Things to note about this game: Detectives instead of watchers: This gives us hard checks (with a few exceptions) on who is scum/town. Town needs to know this information, and we need to keep it out of the hands of mafia. For new players, this is where crumbing comes in. Crumbing is leaving clues about what you want to say. The best crumbs will be deciphered by us and not by scum. However, crumbs can be used a different way, in that you leave crumbs no one can decipher and then reveal multiple crumbs later. This is good if you are new because often times no one can understand your crumbs anyways since you don't have experience. Vigilantes: Need to not use your shots immediately. You are MUCH more likely to hit a civilian than scum at first, and also more likely to caus confusion. Those are the two most important roles this game. Regarding discussion: Freeloader is probably not scum. He is new and likely inexperienced. However, just to be sure, a cop needs to check him tonight. Which reminds me: If a miller is roleblocked, what does he return to investiagtion? Anyways, many good ideas floating around for a newbie game :p Keep up the good work I believe it is always good to start off the game by knowing who's good, who's new, and who's annoying. Some people read previously played games to get a better read, but as this is a new game, most won't look further than this. A nice long post that defends the very quick accusations against Freeloader625, a pretty neutral post. One of his first posts is to warn people to not bandwagon early on in the game especially with such little evidence. Other than Aril he’s one of the earliest people to defend Freeloader. I would say that’s more than neutral and obviously pro-town behavior. + Show Spoiler + On June 05 2011 16:29 iGrok wrote: Olol. No haiku this time. Pardon the wino in the corner. Yes, it is green and not blue. EBWOP: Change to green. O shit, a post without a Haiku but pretty irrelevant at this time. I agree. Irrelevant. + Show Spoiler + On June 05 2011 16:29 iGrok wrote: Olol. No haiku this time. Pardon the wino in the corner. Yes, it is green and not blue. EBWOP: Change to green. Another irrelevant post, but continuing to have a presence. Important for people to see him. Insignificant. + Show Spoiler + On June 05 2011 18:14 iGrok wrote: Two threads, Two places Vote in one, not the other Or you may mislead. Just fyi, voting in the Thread and not in the voting thread is considered scummy at higher levels of play. I will of course excuse you since you are new, but I'm trying to help you out here - if you're going to vote, then vote, but make sure you know what you're doing. Make sure you read my post. Also, again with the bullshit McCarthyism - This is VERY anti-town, and if you're a menace to town, promoting anti-town play, its in our best interest to remove you from the game if we have no strong mafia targets. tl;dr: CTFO + Show Spoiler + Chill The Fuck Out Starts to get interesting somewhat. Note he denounces Kurumi's valid post against Jimboo (who I previously considered if he was mafia, but believe he is just a very-almost-too active townie). Also accuses Kurumi of being anti-town. You read this wrong. Kurumi criticizes Treadmill who states that lynching somebody with some evidence of scum is better than lynching someone without any evidence. Yes, he accuses Kurumi as being anti-town but you yourself admit to having some thought of Kurumi being mafia. We can all see iGrok’s reasoning (after all I think all everyone at some point has considered Kurumi as mafia). Kurumi is acting really aggressive, is quick to vote, and is pointing fingers everywhere. Now none of this is conclusive of being mafia, but it is certainly not pro-town behavior which iGrok is pointing out. Nothing scummy about iGrok at this point. + Show Spoiler + On June 05 2011 18:21 iGrok wrote: The more that you yell, The more attention you get. Keep up the noise, Joe [/sarcasm] Even if you are town, and its too early to throw accusations out, you're playing TERRIBLY anti-town. Again, Chill. Again makes Kurumi out to be very anti-town. Yes, he calls out Kurumi again. Is this suspicious? No. iGrok is staying consistent with his warnings to Kurumi that his wild accusations and rude posts only hurt his credibility if he is town. + Show Spoiler + On June 05 2011 18:31 iGrok wrote: No haiku for this, The point is too short for one. Just a simple note Do shit like this, you're going to piss people off. Pissing people off is a good way to die. Dying does not help your team at all (at least in this game). You know this, you've played several games. Don't fuck over the newbies because you want to be obnoxious. As far as your "slips" go: Lafali, from what I can tell, is a newbie who bandwagonned, read my post warning against bandwagons, and unvoted. Treadmill: He said we should wait, and every point of evidence is important no matter how small. Great reason to vote him. Point grew after I wrote the haiku :p Starts getting interesting. He defends Lafali as a nooby and defends Treadmill (who begin to reason as scum lately). Yes he defended lafali but at this early point in the game lafali is not clear mafia. This can go either way depending on which propaganda mill you subscribe to. If you assume he’s town,perhaps he’s gratified that someone listened to his advice about bandwagoning and unvoted. If he is town, lafali can very well look like an unexperienced townie who just voted too early. If you assume he’s mafia, then of course you’ll make the leap from “iGrok defended a member of the mafia” therefore it’s very likely that he is mafia. His defense of lafali is inconclusive at best of whether or not he’s mafia or not. Don’t read too much into it. + Show Spoiler + On June 05 2011 23:54 iGrok wrote: Pay no heed to us Prior warnings of misdeeds. Vote without a post. again, [/sarcasm] Drazerk, you did NOT just read the thread, SEE that people were warned against voting without posting, and then vote without posting. Right? Calls out Drazerk for not posting before voting. Boring. Yes. It’s boring, but it’s important for the town to pressure people who vote without any explanation. + Show Spoiler + On June 06 2011 07:57 iGrok wrote: My Final Haiku: I guess fun is not allowed. Srs Bsns. You, sir, have no sense of fun. So let me get this straight - your reason for voting me is "Thread Derailment" and not wanting to vote for treadmill? You do realize you could just -wait- to vote, right? Honestly, those are some of the worst reasons to vote that I can think of. Particularly since your post is, aside from your "evidence" against me, just a regurgitation of other posts. Post some analysis, and good analysis not just bullshit like the above post. You may be thinking, "Why haven't you (iGrok) posted strong analysis yet then?" And knowng you, and probably kurumi as well, there probably a "Scum!" (or "Rat!") thrown in there. The reason is that last night there was nothing to analyze yet, but I saw that the town was disintegrating really fast and I had to step up to try to stop that from happening. May analysis will come after 24 hours of game time, no sooner or later. I will focus on one person, selected without bias, and attempt to ascertain through their posts what their alignment is. Anyone who remembers me from Experiment Mafia 2, I was Pink2 - You remember my analysis of Blue, and how strong that was. In closing, BE PATIENT. Talk, yes, Discuss, yes. Accuse, especially with as little actual substance has happened so far, no. Again getting into a good towny position. Getting into a good towny position is what a townie wants to do. A mildly relevant post now as I am putting together evidence for us to consider if iGrok is scum. iGrok then tells him it was his last haiku. Vain explains that iGrok just wants attention and iGrok thanks him. iGrok points out an edited post to mods. iGrok makes a small tip on quoting. iGrok tells someone not to report to mods but to let us self-moderate. These last several posts aren't exactly worth much, but could serve to make it further clear that he is an experienced player to say the least. CrjNinja posts some good analysis and condemns Lafali and naming Freeloader and Kurumi green. iGrok asks Crj's opinion of himself (of iGrok). Crj says he is an experienced player and says iGrok might be green but wants to wait until he makes any worth while post. All I can really gleam from this is that he’s staying consistent to what’s he’s posted before. And yes, he is using the experience card. Is this necessarily a scummy thing to do? No. It can help him if he’s town OR if he’s mafia. And from our past experience with Jackal, we all realize what a powerful tool a claim to experience can be. So again, this purely depends on which bias one uses to analyze iGrok. So far we have learned that iGrok first day has been utterly passive and is following his statement that he will not post anything worthwhile until after day 1, but has instead been using his time to get in our good graces by not stepping on any one's shoes as he wants to be liked by everyone. Currently (at the time of the above posts) I am kind of annoyed by him, but he seems like a very good player (even though he hasn't actually posted anything). I don’t agree at all he’s being passive. He’s putting himself out there as being pro-town. Personally I think he fancies himself as the voice of reason amid the chaos of the freeloader bandwaggoning. Nothing wrong with that. Also, the claim that he’s careful not to step on anyone’s shoes is also incorrect. He had no problem rebuking Kurumi early on. Overall, I found him to be consistent with his posts and also pro-town. I can already hear your whispers of “maybe too pro-town”. But again I stress this entirely depends on which bias you take. Maybe he’s pro-town because he is town? iGrok now posts about how he will post a big analysis soon. iGrok explains how redFF isn't actually playing the game. WARNING BIG POST – finally iGrok's big analysis post. This should be fun. + Show Spoiler + On June 06 2011 15:18 iGrok wrote: Its time for some analysis. For Science. EDITED MY OWN SPOILERS SO YOU CAN SKIP THE NOOB GUIDE + Show Spoiler + This post will be long. And split into two parts. The first part will be setup analysis. The second part will be a post-by-post analysis of Kurumi. There will be no tl;dr. Welcome to Mafia ^^. Let's begin. Setup: 40 players. 1/5 are scum. Scum have 4 kp N1, and D1 is rarely a scum lynch (sad but true). However, there are medics and vets, so assume D2: 36 players - 28 Town 8 scum, or .222 scum. Now we're getting somewhere. Because of the scum %, which is slightly high for a large game (large games tend to help scum get lost in the noise), and based on Town traditionally having more PRs anyways, I guarantee tht Town has a greater number of PRs. Probably 150-250%. I'll analyze Scum roles first so we can get a rough estimate of the number of blue roles. 8 Scum. 1 GF. There are definitely not more than 50% PRs on the red team. That would be absurd for a newbie-friendly game. Therefore, 2-3 RBs. 3 RBs is a little high, so I'll guesstimate 2. This leave us with 3 PRs on scum. Blue Roles Detective: In this game, Detectives (Also known as Cops and DTs) check Role in addition to alignment. This makes DT a VERY powerful role. However, there is probably more than 1 - having only one makes the game to easy to be swung with a lucky snipe. Therefore, I'd guess there are 2 DTs. Medics and Vets: Lately, theres been a tendency to display both but only give out one or the other of these roles. In this case, however, I will assume both. Likely 2 Medics (for the same reason as 2 DTs - if one gets sniped thats just bad luck) and 1 Vet. Veterans kind of get their own kind of weighting when it comes to balancing teams. You know it will be useful if town is losing, but it does nothing active to help them. Veterans help to stabilize the game and make it less swing-y, which is exactly what you want for a newbie game. Lastly, Vigilantes. Knowing Meapak, theres at least one, probably 2 Vigilantes. Vigilantes can be the town saviors. Particularly in a game like this, the faster we can whittle down Mafia KP the better off we'll be. Vigis should take note of who presses for and opposes a lynch, and when we see the results, act accordingly - probably NOT before N2 though. Note that I do not count vets toward Power Role balance because they are so weak. Also Vigis only count for 75% of a PR because they can do more harm than good. Role cops, on the other hand, count for 150% of a PR. Yes, they are that strong. Black Roles Traditionally, Black roles are 3rd party, but since there aren't any sks, I'm counting Miller as a black role. Miller is the bane of any cop. Every check you make that comes back Goon is less usefull. You can't confirm that he's anti town (though feel free to pressure them and see if they crack!). Millers count as -50% of a PR to Town. I would be VERY surprised if there were more than 1 Miller in this game, and certainly not more than two. So, in summary: 5 Goons, 2 RBs, 1 GF = 3 PRs 2 DTs, 2 Medics, 1 Vet, 2 Vigis = 6.5 PRs 1 Miller = -.5 PRs Total of 6:3 - Perfect - 200% Is that guaranteed to be accurate? No. But its probably pretty close. Now on to Analysis! Today's subject is Kurumi. The black does not mean I think he's a miller, it means I don't know yet. So, post by post: Manages to insult Freeloader and defend him at the same time. His next move, searching for bandwagonners, is a good idea, although its really not too hard to search through the 6 post long vote thread :p. Nothing to really note here except attitude. This is either a misread or a mislead. I immediately noted 2 things here: the ridiculously aggressive attitude was one. Treadmill is saying here that we need to use every bit of evidence, and that at the moment we had very little but it was enough to start. I might not have completely agreed with Treadmill, but I didn't think he was scum because of it. Kurumi is apparently convinced enough by this post that Treadmill is scum to vote - after he's yelled at others for voting based on little to no evidence. Literally this is what happened: Lafali says "aprudds has a point, but it could mean nothing. Fortunately, its not the end of the world if we fuck up." Kurumi continues his hyper-aggression. Lafali's post meant nothing - he may as well have not posted. Based on this, Kurumi accuses Lafali of being scum.+ Show Spoiler + Granted, it was a useless post - a scummy thing to do with good player meta, but as a newbie Lafali probably felt (s)he should contribute something. This should be pretty self-explanatory. + Show Spoiler [In case its not,] + More hyper-aggression This is actually a very interesting post. As you can see, Kurumi is mis-representing both Lafali and Treadmill. Neither of them "advocate mis-lynches", they simply stated that a mislynch was ok, and even probable. Neither of them are anti-town, and Treadmill is actually playing pro-town. This is a very true post. That is precisely what scum wants. Its important to note that scum also wants to cause as much chaos in the town as possible as well. Just read it. The one super-pro-town thing he's done all game! Catching silent voters is SUPER important, particularly in a large game like this. Pyo calls him out, Kurumi admits to spreading chaos in the town the game before. Pyo asks Kurumi for a list of "experienced players" On June 05 2011 22:45 Kurumi wrote: Jackal58 - he is very good GGQ - I think he is there for at least short while Me Impervious from replacements played a bit there too gtrsrs played one game I think. You're not going to participating in lynching the most scummy player Pyo? While I understand place holder votes You need to know that people like me will remember that. I want to see a good post after You're back. Jackal58 is good. GGQ is good, borderline very good (no offense Jackal ♥). Vain is good. I'd like to think I'm decent. Impervious is... interesting haha. Kurumi has played 3 games, and Jackal called him out later on. Whats important here is that Kurumi lumps himself in with very good players that town should listen to. He's attempting to establish a position of power for himself. On June 05 2011 23:20 Kurumi wrote: By the most scummy player I meant Your suspicion. An example of good post would be an analysis pointing out the biggest slips of player X leading Town in a Scum lynch.Remember though: there's nothing wrong about being wrong(unless You're redtooth,then You commit suicide on Day 3) A good post could be summing up who attacked who and who defended who + Your thoughts about it. Everything that generates discussion is good. You must remember though,that without good evidence there's probably no point in bringing something new,because this will cause chaos. Pyo,it is too fast for scum to bus too. Freeloader's situation is really uncertain. His small,but bandwagon is based on shitty evidence. "He asked a question,no townie would ask it!" Think for a second. What would happen if Freeloader was scum? Someone would pm him and tell him everything he needed to know,makes sense? Hell yes. We aren't that vindictive,don't worry <3 But there are players who are magnets,namely Radfield and Kavdragon,who like to die Day/Night 1. Kurumi hasn't been here that long, but he's clearly read up on his mafia. He knows the names of some older players. He is correct in that all discussion is good discussion, but (IMO)there are certain methods of generating it that do no good to town because they cause too much chaos. Still, point in his favor though. On June 05 2011 23:53 Kurumi wrote: Bussing is when You vote for lynch/kill Your Mafia buddy to make Yourself less suspicious/earn town cred,mostly happens when there's no way to save him/perform some gambit or wicked trickery. Well,it is rather safe to assume that anyone who got assigned as Godfather is going to help his newbie Mafia bros as fast as possible - he is probably one of the "better" players,but this might be a mislead. Also as far I remember in my PYPI pm I had mafia list and that I can PM them etc. etc.,while it wasn't a "noob game" I strongly believe that there everything a new player should know about his role/alignment. Not much to say about this. Slightly pro-town I guess? Kinda obvious stuff, but I'm giving people a pass on obvious stuff this game because its a newbie game and so not everything IS obvious. On June 06 2011 00:07 Kurumi wrote: My dumbness meter went over 9000. Before saying "HURR DURR YOU DID NOTHING" read my posts. I brought evidence why I think they're scum. aprudds (the originator of the whole "Freeloader Debacle") gives a nice, concise analysis of whats gone on in the game, and (in the @Pyo section), explains what his reasoning was for the first accusation. + Show Spoiler [Mini aprudds read] + IMO, it seems that aprudds and Kurumi actually have similar philosophies, its just that aprudds doesn't piss off as many people along the way. On June 06 2011 00:18 Kurumi wrote: I played in XXXIX then PYPI then PTP now there. This is Kurumi's prior experience. Note that in one of these games he was lynched D1. Vain steps in to defend Treadmill and aprudds. On June 06 2011 00:27 Kurumi wrote: @Vain Let aprudds defend himself. On June 06 2011 00:30 Kurumi wrote: EDWOP: I meant,let him play by himself,he does not need Your help. The evidence is simple: They support bad lynches,they say that we can waste lynches,they want Town to make quick decision which they didn't think about enough We've been over this - No they don't. On June 06 2011 03:41 Kurumi wrote: Sorry but Palmar and RedFF are better at tunneling everyone than me >:C Tunnelling is still bad -_-. However, I don't think Kurumi is tunnelling this game. He's just accusing everyone who disagrees with him of being scum. On June 06 2011 03:52 Kurumi wrote: Hey guys voting on freeloader bandwagon,are You willing to post? (Drazerk,grush57) Continuing to prod Silent Voters. Pro-town. Really unexpected. On June 06 2011 04:05 Kurumi wrote: Treadmill is suspicious to You? You both are doing the same thing. Also thanks for excuse,I enjoy eating them. Because they're yummy. Why would DT report on Day 2? It is an easy target for Mafia,even when med protected they can just stack on him. Why are You spreading bad ideas? Kurumi points out that DTs shouldn't report on D2 since mafia can stack kills. This is an excellent point - DTs should wait until they have something useful to report before revealing themselves. I don't understand the first half of this post, so I'm ignoring it lol. On June 06 2011 05:37 Kurumi wrote: This post can be treated like it never happened,You know? What are Your thoughts on freeloader bandwagon? Who's Your scum suspect #1? Asking questions, its been a bit since he last posted an opinion of his own (aside from other people are "Rats"). Nothing really here.+ Show Spoiler [Tiny supersoft read here] + Admitting to lurking and doing nothing but saying 'hey look I'm not lurking' is terrible. On June 06 2011 05:54 Kurumi wrote: We can't no lynch. There needs to be a lynch every Day. True. And thats the last post he made. It may be time related. That was ~10 hours ago, possibly sleeping. So, what can we take from all this? Kurumi is a very aggressive player known for causing chaos. He has cast suspicion on many people, mostly those who argued with him. He has also thrown in some genuinely Pro-town things into his posting. Its very difficult to make a final call, but... I believe that Kurumi is Scum. In my opinion, his Pro-town points were thrown in at random or very obvious to remove suspicion from him. However, I must take into account that I may have been biased, as well as his pro-town things. Because of this, I do not advocate a Kurumi Lynch D1. Instead, I think that Kurumi should be our prime DT target. Knowledge of his alignment will undoubtedly help us determine who is scum and who is town. GGQ, Jackal, Vain, I'd particularly appreciate it if you would weigh in here. To new players, this is a complete, thorough analysis of a player. You don't have to do things like this. But you'll be a much better player if you do, even if you don't post it (there are times not to, like if you realize someone is a DT or Medic). Go forth and analyze! Now most of this post is directed at Kurumi who I feel is enemies with iGrok at this time, and assuming iGrok is GF, he doesn't want Kurumi to continue tunneling himself so he shifts focus to Kurumi. As iGrok doesn't want to appear suspicious himself he suggests a DT check Kurumi. Some of your points are absurd. He doesn’t want to appear suspicious so he asks a dt check on Kurumi. What… did you want him to ask for a dt check on himself? Let’s break it down. If he’s gf, he would welcome a dt. If he’s town, he knows that he himself is town and knows that utilizing a dt check on himself would be a waste. You assume he accuses Kurumi to put the public scrutiny on Kurumi and off himself. Think about this way. Before he posted this: Kurumi, pyo, gtrsrs are tunneling him. After this is posted: Kurumi, pyo, gtrsrs are still tunneling him. If he wanted to stop the pressure from tunneling, this was not meant to accomplish that. Assume he’s town. He provides a real analysis of someone we’d all like to know better, a high-interest person: Kurumi, probably one the most wild-card player in the game. Also the immediate claims of fishing for blues is bullshit for reasons already stated on other posts. It was just a weak excuse to tunnel someone even further. Now I would like to point out this out This is what I call true irony. This whole game until now has been iGrok expressing his experience and not stepping on anyone’s toes and making the town does not act hastily in their lynch. He is letting us make the first mistake (with information, not lynches) by not posting anything worth reading (he can't slip anything important if he never posts anything important while we make accusations and force each other to defend ourselves.. I personally thought that the analysis on iGrok was a worthwhile read…. But anyways as I have stated before, an establishment of greater experience will help someone regardless of whether or not he is mafia. If you want to stubborn minded about it and believe iGrok is gf without a doubt, why aren’t also calling out Kurumi who did the same thing. Immediately after this is posted gtrsrs calls iGrok out on still being his prime suspicion even though he provided a long analysis. + Show Spoiler + On June 06 2011 15:40 iGrok wrote: iGrok then asks for a post by post analysis of himself – which until now has been literally 100% white noise and even this analysis is an extremely passive against Kurumi. iGrok now posts that hes asking flamewheel to edit the formatting so he doesn't get in trouble and his posts looks prettier. iGrok then states that his PR formulas aren't 100% accurate, but are generally pretty useful. I think you and I have different definitions of passive. Also you claiming he’s passive is contrary to your argument that iGrok is putting himself out there as a person to be trusted based on experience. Let’s be frank here. iGrok wants gtrsrs to do a post by post analysis himself. Lets construe it as if iGrok is a town. iGrok is confident in his alignment so he is unafraid to ask someone to do an analysis on himself. Also he knows that gtrsrs has pretty much nothing conclusive on him. I suggest everyone read through pyo and gtrsrs’s posts and see exactly where the origin of this tunneling came from. It is lol worthy. + Show Spoiler + On June 06 2011 16:20 iGrok wrote: Basically he calls out gtrsrs on being a noob, even though his accusation against iGrok is pretty accurate. CrjNinja comes in and says he disagrees with his analysis on Kurumi. DO NOT base an argument on accuracy unless there are contradictions in someone’s posts. The better question to ask is “Is this significant?” NO. He is calling him a noob because these “accurate” statements in no way conclusively paint iGrok as mafia. Let’s boil it down to the facts. iGrok makes haikus and he posts what he believes the set-up is. If he is mafia, why let the town know? He can easily tell this information in the mafia chat. He made haikus. Oh noes… it’s so distracting he must be mafia. This is really the flimsiest reason for an accusation to have ever been uttered. + Show Spoiler + On June 06 2011 16:36 iGrok wrote: More people become suspicious of him and then gtrsrs posts Again construing it to suit your needs. More people are not becoming suspicious of him. They are disagreeing with his conclusion. There is a difference. iGrok even later welcomes any disagreements. He provided his evidence and of course it won’t be 100% conclusive so there will be some who don’t agree. - - - - - - - - - - - In conclusion, I really want to stress that THIS IS NOT AN OPEN AND SHUT CASE. Lets summarize the points main against iGrok: Claim to experience. Self-importance? His posts try to paint a picture as him being “pro-town” Defends lafali, accuses Kurumi Got super defensive “fishing for blues” I would get defensive too if I got tunneled for stupid reasons. I pointed out the flaw in “fishing for blues”. The only way iGrok is justified as scum is to claim iGrok is godfather. Yes, you have a right to be skeptical if the only means of accusing someone is to claim he is godfather. For those of you bumrushing iGrok as mafia, I urge you to look at it in the point of view of town and you will see it is equally as valid. Overall, I am not saying he couldn’t be godfather but all the evidence is INCONCLUSIVE at best. I don’t even know how all of you are completely convinced of his wrongdoing. We all agree he is being pro-town and trying to assert his experience, but you take this as proof he is godfather when he can just as easily be a townie. outlines the reasoning pretty well. Something else:[/b] GGQ didn't post ANY suspicions of iGrok until literally 1 minute before the night post. So the notion that GGQ was killed to protect iGrok from his accusations is bogus. iGrok is playing this as if its a newbie game (which it is). He's being a bit patronizing, a little "cutesy" and "unserious" perhaps, but that doesn't mean he reads as scum. In fact, look at his posting in older mafia games: Insane Mafia 2 - iGrok was a blue. He posts less (which can be explained by being blue rather than green) but he offers his opinion on most things. He shows an interest in the game mechanics, asks a bunch of questions about that. He also answers other peoples noob-esque questions. And he posts some silly stuff, early on, like this: On March 24 2011 08:08 iGrok wrote: The lunatic is in my head, The lunatic is in my head, You raise the blade, you make the change, You re-arrange me 'till I'm sane That's his only other game that I can find - though he has referred to playing in another game with smurf IDs, etc. Couldn't track that down. Anyways, in that other mafia he played, iGrok's early posts were mostly dominated by somewhat off-topic posting, like cutesy stuff, questions about the mechanics of the game, and answers to nooby questions. Does this sound similar? He was town when he did this last time. Does this mean he's 100% [green]innocent? NO. But it does mean that this kind of posting from iGrok is not evidence of his being some kind of scum mastermind. And when you disregard it the case against him looks rather slim. | ||
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CjrNinja, page 46. I pared it down but you can go back and look: On June 09 2011 12:42 CjrNinja wrote: I think GGQ died for 3 reasons: a) Has been the only person to suspect Vain, which no one has picked up on (yet). b) Suspected iGrok, though wasn’t as vocal about it (before his ‘death posts’) c) Experienced player One point: KURUMI DOES NOT NEED AN EXPLANATION AND HE CAN DEFEND HIMSELF FINE. HE IS TOWNIE Either a. xkcd is claiming DT and that he checked Kurumi last night - after having spent most of yesterday mentioning why it wouldn't really be useful for a DT to check on him and the results shouldn't be trusted or b. xkcd has boundless faith in this guy and considers him exempt from scrutiny because... what? I really can't see any scenario two except for xkcd being mafia. | ||
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On June 09 2011 14:34 CjrNinja wrote: You are correct in that he didn't call out iGrok straight. But, using the power of hindsight, we can easily see that GGQ was definitely suspicious of him. No GGQ didn't call out iGrok specifically in that first quote. But iGrok knew GGQ was referring to him, as he was the only person who defended Lafali. Does that make sense? Hrrrm. I missed that. I still think that everyone is reading a little too deeply into everything - I think that GGQ was killed cause the mafia read him as blue, nothing else. Also just cause GGQ got killed doesn't mean he was right. [what's kinda funny is that people are extrapolating what they want to think out of everything - iGrok is mafia because DeMorcerf was killed, and he was defending him' iGrok is mafia because GGQ was killed, and he was suspicious of him.] I'm gonna go to bed. See y'all in the morning. | ||
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On June 10 2011 09:25 iGrok wrote: Well, not quite. Although I would laugh if Kurumi was GF, it doesn't necessarily have to be one of us, and "hasn't outed himself yet" is like the worst argument I've ever heard. If we're going on the assumption that an experienced player is GF you guys are ignoring gtsrs. Its a stupid obsession though , we should be hunting for mafia nopt metagaming who the gf is. | ||
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On June 10 2011 12:47 aprudds wrote: EBWOP my bad, didnt see the next page, doh. Hahaha. I did the same thing for a bit. This is totally down to the wire, I keep F5'ing to see if there are new votes. I bellieve that its tdAdonis and Jimbooo who have yet to vote, correct? Considering that Adonis has yet to post in this thread I can't say I'll miss him. | ||
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One thing is Kurumi comes out of this smelling like a rose. At least, xkcd definitely checked up on him last night and he definitely showed town. Could be gf, maybe, but I somewhat doubt it. Gonna have to do some thinking tonight. Hrrrm. | ||
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On June 10 2011 14:21 aprudds wrote: XKCD-13 Treadmill grush57 teamsolid Impervious cherubael Alderan 35spike1 TheAwesomeAll blackone aprudds iGrok Munk-E Senj iGrok-11 Pyo gtrsrs Sprungjeezy Kurumi supersoft CjrNinja omgCRAZY Xedat Kairo Drazerk freeloader625 Did a recount, can someone check it? teamsolid switched to Jackal. You're missing Trance and MonsterDrakar who both voted iGrok. | ||
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On June 11 2011 14:17 gtrsrs wrote: you know looking back we have 40 players i doubt there'd be more than 1/5th mafia maximum 8. more likely 7. 3 dead = 4 mafia remaining 4 mafia = 2 KP. 1 KP removed for amazing's death. 2-1 = 1 KP last night it's entirely possible that a vigi shot last night. a vigi hit on jackal would have made sense too. what say you guys? It says explicitly in the OP that there were 8 mafia to start with. | ||
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On June 11 2011 14:24 Meapak_Ziphh wrote: that is an amazing series of ninja's o_O LOL yeah. That'll teach gtsrs to ask questions | ||
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I'm not scum. I'm a townie. I don't want you guys to waste a lynch on me when there are genuine mafia out there to hunt. As far as I can tell the case against me is based on i. I strongly advocated for the lynch of amazingxkcd ii. iGrok and I were somehow 'pals' As for [i], I really feel like I had a good case against xkcd. I genuinely thought he was scum. A lot of people including experienced players like impervious agreed with me - as well as many of the people who ended up voting iGrok. I didn't lie about the details of his case, I didn't "tunnel" him, I feel like I did my best to be fair to him. Obviously I was wrong, obviously I screwed up, but I advocated for what I believed. As for iGrok, I read him wrong too. to my eyes, the criticisms on day one from gtrsrs and from Kurumi came of of nowhere. From what I can tell in retrospect, they're suspicion came (in part) from past experience in the game - gtrsrs said a few pages ago that he was suspicious cause he'd done the same thing his first game as godfather - but to me their accusations came out of nowhere, so I defended him. Day 2 they were amongst the first people to go to lynch him so I was again suspicious of that lynch. I was wrong though. iGrok buddying up to me like he did, could've been him trying to give me legitimacy but he kept doing it when he was under a lot of suspicion. If I've missed something, let me know, and I'll answer to it as best I can. Anyways, I'm staying up for the MSL finals so I'm gonna spend some time looking for the real mafia. One person I think could use more scrutiny is Alderan - day one he posted a lot of suspicions of xkcd, then posted how he felt that the case against rookie44 was pretty weak, then he switched his vote to rookie44 for odd reasoning. He also is one of the only two guys, with Senj, to have voted for both rookie day 1 and xkcd day 2. | ||
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On June 11 2011 16:04 TheAwesomeAll wrote: youre timings were pretty unfortunate, why did you vote xkcd if you suspected he was DT? I didn't. I thought he was red. I figured that if he wasn't he was definitely DT, but I was really thinking red. | ||
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b. as far as I know I didn't get shot night 1 (I'd know, right?) c. aprudds is right, anyways, mafia only had 3 kp night 1 so there wasn't an extra hit d. I'm starting a job this weekend so I don't have much time to post (I'll have some time for the 6 hours before the vote so I'll post more there) e. my scum detection is totally off so I really have no idea who's mafia and who isn't. I think the case against grush57 is decent, especially as all he's been posting today is "well Treadmill's vet, or not, or I don't know" which is a bit of a derail. I'm not sure what the case against Vain is, he hasn't been posting much I guess. gtsrs I'd appreciate if you laid out clearly hy you think he's mafia (apologies if you already have, again, in a bit of a rush) I'm not voting til I get back cause I've been hasty in the past and thats been dumb. | ||
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On June 13 2011 07:04 heist wrote: Kurumi you just changed your vote to pyo. You seriously need to stop abusing the fact that you are a confirmed town. You're just causing confusion and start arguments that are not clarifying anyone's suspicions on anyone. Just because Kurumi is a confirmed townie doesn't mean he isnt also a moron. I'm voting grush57 because I think he's got the best case against him. Mostly for the reasons other people have said - his posting day 1 + his votes + mostly just lurking. Though given our luck he's probably another blue lol. I'm gonna post some stuff about Alderan during tomorrow's night phase since apparently people aren't gonna lynch me for another day or two. I was kinda hoping that somebody else, someone not everyone thinks is mafia, would take a look, but since that hasn't happened I'll have to do it. | ||
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On June 13 2011 09:50 35spike1 wrote: Lol, what a scum post. Apoligising for lack of activity, happily stating that he'll jump on the Grush bandwagon, and explaining that he can't be bothered checking out Grush's posts. That's ONE way to look at it. Alternately, he's apologizing for having been busy and not posting much, and agrees with the consensus view of grush57 and doesnt't really have anything to add. Saying that Alderan is "explaining that he can't be bothered checking out Grush's posts" is not only unfair but inaccurate - he's saying he can't be bothered to give analysis, which is different. This is the biggest problem we've been having this whole game - once someone's decided someone else is scum, then every single new post is read in the worst possible light. I'm suspicious of Alderan too but we need to be fair to people if we want to avoid continued mislynches. | ||
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