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Sprungjeezy
United States1313 Posts
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Sprungjeezy
United States1313 Posts
On June 08 2011 23:43 Sprungjeezy wrote: My Analysis of iGrok + Show Spoiler + On June 05 2011 15:36 iGrok wrote: In the shadows lies A peculiar type of Man Kuze is my name. In this game, I will start all of my posts with haikus. Enjoy ^^ He has plenty of reasons to be a townie. Don't even think about that kind of McCarthy Bullshit this early in the game. Anyone voting this early deserves some measure of suspicion. Also, I am schwasted, so this may not make a lot of sense. (White Russians are the best!) But. If you are new to mafia, welcome. A quick word of advice: Think before you act. Those people who have already voted are acting too hastily. a 40 man game is much more about reasoning than putting pressure on someone. And the only reason you would vote this early is to put pressure on someone. Things to note about this game: Detectives instead of watchers: This gives us hard checks (with a few exceptions) on who is scum/town. Town needs to know this information, and we need to keep it out of the hands of mafia. For new players, this is where crumbing comes in. Crumbing is leaving clues about what you want to say. The best crumbs will be deciphered by us and not by scum. However, crumbs can be used a different way, in that you leave crumbs no one can decipher and then reveal multiple crumbs later. This is good if you are new because often times no one can understand your crumbs anyways since you don't have experience. Vigilantes: Need to not use your shots immediately. You are MUCH more likely to hit a civilian than scum at first, and also more likely to caus confusion. Those are the two most important roles this game. Regarding discussion: Freeloader is probably not scum. He is new and likely inexperienced. However, just to be sure, a cop needs to check him tonight. Which reminds me: If a miller is roleblocked, what does he return to investiagtion? Anyways, many good ideas floating around for a newbie game :p Keep up the good work I believe it is always good to start off the game by knowing who's good, who's new, and who's annoying. Some people read previously played games to get a better read, but as this is a new game, most won't look further than this. A nice long post that defends the very quick accusations against Freeloader625, a pretty neutral post. + Show Spoiler + On June 05 2011 15:39 iGrok wrote: I didn't even see this. If you use this argument again I will be sure you die. If Townies don't defend other townies from bullshit attacks, this game will end quite rapidly, and not in our favor. More defending Freeloader625. Then posts a Haiku. Then another. Then another with a question about the KP system. + Show Spoiler + On June 05 2011 16:29 iGrok wrote: Olol. No haiku this time. Pardon the wino in the corner. Yes, it is green and not blue. EBWOP: Change to green. O shit, a post without a Haiku but pretty irrelevant at this time. Inc several posts, apparently after so much code, the forums stop reading quote and /quote outside of spoilers thats why when I double checked the code (after using the preview) I could see nothing wrong, yet it still didn't work. | ||
Sprungjeezy
United States1313 Posts
+ Show Spoiler + On June 05 2011 16:29 iGrok wrote: Olol. No haiku this time. Pardon the wino in the corner. Yes, it is green and not blue. EBWOP: Change to green. Another irrelevant post, but continuing to have a presence. Important for people to see him. + Show Spoiler + On June 05 2011 18:14 iGrok wrote: Two threads, Two places Vote in one, not the other Or you may mislead. Just fyi, voting in the Thread and not in the voting thread is considered scummy at higher levels of play. I will of course excuse you since you are new, but I'm trying to help you out here - if you're going to vote, then vote, but make sure you know what you're doing. Make sure you read my post. Also, again with the bullshit McCarthyism - This is VERY anti-town, and if you're a menace to town, promoting anti-town play, its in our best interest to remove you from the game if we have no strong mafia targets. tl;dr: CTFO + Show Spoiler + Chill The Fuck Out Starts to get interesting somewhat. Note he denounces Kurumi's valid post against Jimboo (who I previously considered if he was mafia, but believe he is just a very-almost-too active townie). Also accuses Kurumi of being anti-town. + Show Spoiler + On June 05 2011 18:21 iGrok wrote: The more that you yell, The more attention you get. Keep up the noise, Joe [/sarcasm] Even if you are town, and its too early to throw accusations out, you're playing TERRIBLY anti-town. Again, Chill. Again makes Kurumi out to be very anti-town. + Show Spoiler + On June 05 2011 18:31 iGrok wrote: No haiku for this, The point is too short for one. Just a simple note Do shit like this, you're going to piss people off. Pissing people off is a good way to die. Dying does not help your team at all (at least in this game). You know this, you've played several games. Don't fuck over the newbies because you want to be obnoxious. As far as your "slips" go: Lafali, from what I can tell, is a newbie who bandwagonned, read my post warning against bandwagons, and unvoted. Treadmill: He said we should wait, and every point of evidence is important no matter how small. Great reason to vote him. Point grew after I wrote the haiku :p Starts getting interesting. He defends Lafali as a nooby and defends Treadmill (who begin to reason as scum lately). | ||
Sprungjeezy
United States1313 Posts
+ Show Spoiler + On June 05 2011 23:54 iGrok wrote: Pay no heed to us Prior warnings of misdeeds. Vote without a post. again, [/sarcasm] Drazerk, you did NOT just read the thread, SEE that people were warned against voting without posting, and then vote without posting. Right? Calls out Drazerk for not posting before voting. Boring. + Show Spoiler + On June 06 2011 07:57 iGrok wrote: My Final Haiku: I guess fun is not allowed. Srs Bsns. You, sir, have no sense of fun. So let me get this straight - your reason for voting me is "Thread Derailment" and not wanting to vote for treadmill? You do realize you could just -wait- to vote, right? Honestly, those are some of the worst reasons to vote that I can think of. Particularly since your post is, aside from your "evidence" against me, just a regurgitation of other posts. Post some analysis, and good analysis not just bullshit like the above post. You may be thinking, "Why haven't you (iGrok) posted strong analysis yet then?" And knowng you, and probably kurumi as well, there probably a "Scum!" (or "Rat!") thrown in there. The reason is that last night there was nothing to analyze yet, but I saw that the town was disintegrating really fast and I had to step up to try to stop that from happening. May analysis will come after 24 hours of game time, no sooner or later. I will focus on one person, selected without bias, and attempt to ascertain through their posts what their alignment is. Anyone who remembers me from Experiment Mafia 2, I was Pink2 - You remember my analysis of Blue, and how strong that was. In closing, BE PATIENT. Talk, yes, Discuss, yes. Accuse, especially with as little actual substance has happened so far, no. Again getting into a good towny position. A mildly relevant post now as I am putting together evidence for us to consider if iGrok is scum. iGrok then tells him it was his last haiku. Vain explains that iGrok just wants attention and iGrok thanks him. iGrok points out an edited post to mods. iGrok makes a small tip on quoting. iGrok tells someone not to report to mods but to let us self-moderate. These last several posts aren't exactly worth much, but could serve to make it further clear that he is an experienced player to say the least. CrjNinja posts some good analysis and condemns Lafali and naming Freeloader and Kurumi green. iGrok asks Crj's opinion of himself (of iGrok). Crj says he is an experienced player and says iGrok might be green but wants to wait until he makes any worth while post. So far we have learned that iGrok first day has been utterly passive and is following his statement that he will not post anything worthwhile until after day 1, but has instead been using his time to get in our good graces by not stepping on any one's shoes as he wants to be liked by everyone. Currently (at the time of the above posts) I am kind of annoyed by him, but he seems like a very good player (even though he hasn't actually posted anything). iGrok now posts about how he will post a big analysis soon. iGrok explains how redFF isn't actually playing the game. | ||
Sprungjeezy
United States1313 Posts
On June 09 2011 08:01 cherubael wrote: Alright. It seems that so far, there is a consensus in that people have voted either iGrok or amazingxkcd. The case on amazingxkcd seems pretty strong to me. I'm not going to go through every post he has made, as that was done here. The case against iGrok seems a little less solid. And most definitely not blue. Also, supersoft seems to be posting some amount, but mostly things that are irrelevant, or criticizing other people, while not doing much himself, as seen here. He seems to be attacking jackal58, but doesn't really have a valid argument. Also, sorry about the lack of posting, I've been quite busy. Yes the case against iGrok is much more intellectualy based on his actions that resemble that of an over ambitious GF and then the fact that his defense is him being silent about it. We really should get rid of iGrok first though. And IF the vote fails, we should have a Vig kill him. Also the last bit of my old post is not formatting correctly for some reason so it might take a bit for me to find a way to post it without it being ugly. | ||
Sprungjeezy
United States1313 Posts
+ Show Spoiler + On June 06 2011 15:18 iGrok wrote: Its time for some analysis. For Science. EDITED MY OWN SPOILERS SO YOU CAN SKIP THE NOOB GUIDE + Show Spoiler + This post will be long. And split into two parts. The first part will be setup analysis. The second part will be a post-by-post analysis of Kurumi. There will be no tl;dr. Welcome to Mafia ^^. Let's begin. Setup: 40 players. 1/5 are scum. Scum have 4 kp N1, and D1 is rarely a scum lynch (sad but true). However, there are medics and vets, so assume D2: 36 players - 28 Town 8 scum, or .222 scum. Now we're getting somewhere. Because of the scum %, which is slightly high for a large game (large games tend to help scum get lost in the noise), and based on Town traditionally having more PRs anyways, I guarantee tht Town has a greater number of PRs. Probably 150-250%. I'll analyze Scum roles first so we can get a rough estimate of the number of blue roles. 8 Scum. 1 GF. There are definitely not more than 50% PRs on the red team. That would be absurd for a newbie-friendly game. Therefore, 2-3 RBs. 3 RBs is a little high, so I'll guesstimate 2. This leave us with 3 PRs on scum. Blue Roles Detective: In this game, Detectives (Also known as Cops and DTs) check Role in addition to alignment. This makes DT a VERY powerful role. However, there is probably more than 1 - having only one makes the game to easy to be swung with a lucky snipe. Therefore, I'd guess there are 2 DTs. Medics and Vets: Lately, theres been a tendency to display both but only give out one or the other of these roles. In this case, however, I will assume both. Likely 2 Medics (for the same reason as 2 DTs - if one gets sniped thats just bad luck) and 1 Vet. Veterans kind of get their own kind of weighting when it comes to balancing teams. You know it will be useful if town is losing, but it does nothing active to help them. Veterans help to stabilize the game and make it less swing-y, which is exactly what you want for a newbie game. Lastly, Vigilantes. Knowing Meapak, theres at least one, probably 2 Vigilantes. Vigilantes can be the town saviors. Particularly in a game like this, the faster we can whittle down Mafia KP the better off we'll be. Vigis should take note of who presses for and opposes a lynch, and when we see the results, act accordingly - probably NOT before N2 though. Note that I do not count vets toward Power Role balance because they are so weak. Also Vigis only count for 75% of a PR because they can do more harm than good. Role cops, on the other hand, count for 150% of a PR. Yes, they are that strong. Black Roles Traditionally, Black roles are 3rd party, but since there aren't any sks, I'm counting Miller as a black role. Miller is the bane of any cop. Every check you make that comes back Goon is less usefull. You can't confirm that he's anti town (though feel free to pressure them and see if they crack!). Millers count as -50% of a PR to Town. I would be VERY surprised if there were more than 1 Miller in this game, and certainly not more than two. So, in summary: 5 Goons, 2 RBs, 1 GF = 3 PRs 2 DTs, 2 Medics, 1 Vet, 2 Vigis = 6.5 PRs 1 Miller = -.5 PRs Total of 6:3 - Perfect - 200% Is that guaranteed to be accurate? No. But its probably pretty close. Now on to Analysis! Today's subject is Kurumi. The black does not mean I think he's a miller, it means I don't know yet. So, post by post: Manages to insult Freeloader and defend him at the same time. His next move, searching for bandwagonners, is a good idea, although its really not too hard to search through the 6 post long vote thread :p. Nothing to really note here except attitude. This is either a misread or a mislead. I immediately noted 2 things here: the ridiculously aggressive attitude was one. Treadmill is saying here that we need to use every bit of evidence, and that at the moment we had very little but it was enough to start. I might not have completely agreed with Treadmill, but I didn't think he was scum because of it. Kurumi is apparently convinced enough by this post that Treadmill is scum to vote - after he's yelled at others for voting based on little to no evidence. Literally this is what happened: Lafali says "aprudds has a point, but it could mean nothing. Fortunately, its not the end of the world if we fuck up." Kurumi continues his hyper-aggression. Lafali's post meant nothing - he may as well have not posted. Based on this, Kurumi accuses Lafali of being scum.+ Show Spoiler + Granted, it was a useless post - a scummy thing to do with good player meta, but as a newbie Lafali probably felt (s)he should contribute something. This should be pretty self-explanatory. + Show Spoiler [In case its not,] + More hyper-aggression This is actually a very interesting post. As you can see, Kurumi is mis-representing both Lafali and Treadmill. Neither of them "advocate mis-lynches", they simply stated that a mislynch was ok, and even probable. Neither of them are anti-town, and Treadmill is actually playing pro-town. This is a very true post. That is precisely what scum wants. Its important to note that scum also wants to cause as much chaos in the town as possible as well. Just read it. The one super-pro-town thing he's done all game! Catching silent voters is SUPER important, particularly in a large game like this. Pyo calls him out, Kurumi admits to spreading chaos in the town the game before. [green]Pyo asks Kurumi for a list of "experienced players" Jackal58 is good. GGQ is good, borderline very good (no offense Jackal ♥). Vain is good. I'd like to think I'm decent. Impervious is... interesting haha. Kurumi has played 3 games, and Jackal called him out later on. Whats important here is that Kurumi lumps himself in with very good players that town should listen to. He's attempting to establish a position of power for himself. Kurumi hasn't been here that long, but he's clearly read up on his mafia. He knows the names of some older players. He is correct in that all discussion is good discussion, but (IMO)there are certain methods of generating it that do no good to town because they cause too much chaos. Still, point in his favor though. Not much to say about this. Slightly pro-town I guess? Kinda obvious stuff, but I'm giving people a pass on obvious stuff this game because its a newbie game and so not everything IS obvious. aprudds (the originator of the whole "Freeloader Debacle") gives a nice, concise analysis of whats gone on in the game, and (in the @Pyo section), explains what his reasoning was for the first accusation. + Show Spoiler [Mini aprudds read] + IMO, it seems that aprudds and Kurumi actually have similar philosophies, its just that aprudds doesn't piss off as many people along the way. This is Kurumi's prior experience. Note that in one of these games he was lynched D1. Vain steps in to defend Treadmill and aprudds. We've been over this - No they don't. Tunnelling is still bad -_-. However, I don't think Kurumi is tunnelling this game. He's just accusing everyone who disagrees with him of being scum. Continuing to prod Silent Voters. Pro-town. Really unexpected. Kurumi points out that DTs shouldn't report on D2 since mafia can stack kills. This is an excellent point - DTs should wait until they have something useful to report before revealing themselves. I don't understand the first half of this post, so I'm ignoring it lol. Asking questions, its been a bit since he last posted an opinion of his own (aside from other people are "Rats"). Nothing really here.+ Show Spoiler [Tiny supersoft read here] + Admitting to lurking and doing nothing but saying 'hey look I'm not lurking' is terrible. True. And thats the last post he made. It may be time related. That was ~10 hours ago, possibly sleeping. So, what can we take from all this? Kurumi is a very aggressive player known for causing chaos. He has cast suspicion on many people, mostly those who argued with him. He has also thrown in some genuinely Pro-town things into his posting. Its very difficult to make a final call, but... I believe that Kurumi is Scum. In my opinion, his Pro-town points were thrown in at random or very obvious to remove suspicion from him. However, I must take into account that I may have been biased, as well as his pro-town things. Because of this, I do not advocate a Kurumi Lynch D1. Instead, I think that Kurumi should be our prime DT target. Knowledge of his alignment will undoubtedly help us determine who is scum and who is town. GGQ, Jackal, Vain, I'd particularly appreciate it if you would weigh in here. To new players, this is a complete, thorough analysis of a player. You don't have to do things like this. But you'll be a much better player if you do, even if you don't post it (there are times not to, like if you realize someone is a DT or Medic). Go forth and analyze! Now most of this post is directed at Kurumi who I feel is enemies with iGrok at this time, and assuming iGrok is GF, he doesn't want Kurumi to continue tunneling himself so he shifts focus to Kurumi. As iGrok doesn't want to appear suspicious himself he suggests a DT check Kurumi. Now I would like to point out this out [quote]“Jackal58 is good. GGQ is good, borderline very good (no offense Jackal ♥). Vain is good. I'd like to think I'm decent. Impervious is... interesting haha. Kurumi has played 3 games, and Jackal called him out later on. Whats important here is that Kurumi lumps himself in with very good players that town should listen to. He's attempting to establish a position of power for himself. “[/quote] This is what I call true irony. This whole game until now has been iGrok expressing his experience and not stepping on anyone’s toes and making the town does not act hastily in their lynch. He is letting us make the first mistake (with information, not lynches) by not posting anything worth reading (he can't slip anything important if he never posts anything important while we make accusations and force each other to defend ourselves.. Immediately after this is posted gtrsrs calls iGrok out on still being his prime suspicion even though he provided a long analysis. + Show Spoiler + [QUOTE]On June 06 2011 15:40 iGrok wrote: [QUOTE]On June 06 2011 15:31 gtrsrs wrote: for the record, fishing for blues is scummy[quote] Is this in response to anything? [quote]you're still my prime FoS, iGrok, no matter how long your post is[/QUOTE] With how quickly you jumped on me based on nothing, I'd expect nothing less. Perhaps though, you should read the post instead of remarking at its length. And then perhaps you should run an analysis of me. In fact, I'd like to see you do a post-by-post analysis of me. Will you do that? You might be surprised at what you find. For example, in Experiment Mafia II, I ran a post-by-post analysis of the player "Blue1", who I believed to be quite scummy and who was under a lot of suspicion at the time. However, upon going through it, I was forced to conclude that he was actually Town. Town won on Day 3. [/QUOTE] iGrok then asks for a post by post analysis of himself – which until now has been literally 100% white noise and even this analysis is an extremely passive against Kurumi. iGrok now posts that hes asking flamewheel to edit the formatting so he doesn't get in trouble and his posts looks prettier. iGrok then states that his PR formulas aren't 100% accurate, but are generally pretty useful. | ||
Sprungjeezy
United States1313 Posts
+ Show Spoiler + On June 06 2011 16:20 iGrok wrote: Okay, this is not an analysis. Everyone please note how bad this is. But as a refutation, I posted haikus because I wanted to, and every single one had a purpose. I did not try to find out the town's blues. I tried to guess the setup. This helps town out just as much as it helps scum out, if not more so. If you disagree, I want to know why, in explicit detail. Mafia doesn't know who is what PR, or even how many - they can only guess, same as me. Same point as above. If you count both of those as my only two contributions, I'll be able to simply ignore you as a terrile player. The analysis of Kurumi, and holding town together from fracturing immediately should also be in there. As well as explaining several concepts for the newer players. I went through your post history - when exactly have you played before? I know you're big in the LoL subforum, but all I could find regarding mafia was as a replacement in SNMM3 and a late /in for Newbie Mini Mafia I. Just curious because you're acting like you have some knowledge of how newbies play vs how experienced people play. Basically he calls out gtrsrs on being a noob, even though his accusation against iGrok is pretty accurate. CrjNinja comes in and says he disagrees with his analysis on Kurumi. + Show Spoiler + On June 06 2011 16:36 iGrok wrote: Disagreement is fine! I'm a huge fan of actual discussion about things - but someone had to start the analysis, and the little quotes we were getting before are much more annoying to deal with. As I said, I'm not completely certain on Kurumi, but if I had to choose I'd say scum. Thats why I asked for a DT check. Regarding my 'focus on blue roles', which I take you and gtr to mean my Setup Analysis, what I love most about Mafia is the mechanics, and so I'm going to try to work those out as best I can. Since neither mafia nor town knew (or knows now) how many of each role there are, I haven't really done anything. However, with rough, probable numbers, we can work out the best way to assign our blue powers. Blues are (arguably) the most important part of a mafia game - we should try to line up some good actions instead of just hoping for the best. More people become suspicious of him and then gtrsrs posts Which I feel is incredibly relevant and accurate right now. + Show Spoiler + On June 06 2011 16:55 iGrok wrote: Nice OMGUS, bro. You have a habit of responding only to one thing in a post. You should probably change that, not just for this game but for all of them. Anyways, the last thing I'm going to say regarding this (unless you keep up the smear campaign [or answer my points]) is that I said Kurumi is trying to use experience he doesn't have to get into power by associating himself with those who do. Personally, I think Jackal58, GGQ, or Vain would be great people to look up to and have confidence in - they're all pretty experienced and -good- players. Whomever among them we can confirm/be reasonably certain is town should be looked up to. And just FTR, it wasn't 9,000 characters. It was 26,088 characters. Lets see you put that kind of effort into a post, eh? He is truly shaken and is trying to discredit Kurumi and gtrsrs. He then suggests Vain GGQ and Jackal could all be mafia and he would never play again if it were so (this is really a far more retarded post this his previous white noise posts). And then continues to reason that if these 3 experienced and good players were on the same team it is irresponsible of the hosts to allow it to happen when they are supposed to be random teams. - Honestly there is absolutely no reason to say this, no one suggested it, no one considered it, it was TRULY random as hell. Later on he posts an irrelevant mspaint of the accusations that he feels are going around. He then responds to why people find him annoying. Pretty useless. He then answers a question about when nighttime starts. He then asks Jackal his opinion of his Kurumi analysis (I think hes fishing for someone to back him up, hes asked everyones opinion over and over but this is pretty irrelevant). He then basically admits he analzyed Kurumi for no reason aside from trying to post something relevant to the game (even though all it did was get people off his ass for doing nothing the whole game). He then asks Xedat a question. (irrelevant again) He calls someone out for editing. He lets everyone know we have 12.5 hours until night. He then posts that he is unsure if Kurumi is scum or not (he is refering to my post during which I analyze Kurumi who I was suspicious of, but after doing the analysis started to consider him a townie). He then expresses more confusion over someones post about Kurumi. (again irrelevant) The person he was talking to explains himself and iGrok says he understands and states he doesn't know who to lynch. + Show Spoiler + On June 07 2011 03:08 iGrok wrote: Yeah. Here's my "Don't Lynch" list (in no particular order): Me ^^ Jackal58 Vain GGQ Kurumi Treadmill 35spike1 CrJninja Xedat aprudds Actually, looking back, I'm going to put my vote on Drazerk, for twice voting without saying shit. (He might've posted once or twice, but absolutely no substance, only bandwagonning). Here he says he is going to vote to lynch Drazerk for no real reason besides Drazerk's ignorance. Kurumi asks for an explanation and he gives some reasons, but they're all pretty much him hoping that his opinion matters and hoping people will listen to him so he can appear to have more power in the future votes. He explains how the GF is chosen. He also asks for an updated vote count. He then says he doesn't think Rookie is scum, but bad with words, not that this matters because the votes were pretty substantially against the poor medic. Impervious recommends we vote for the 3 people that suddenly changed their vote to Rookie with little time left. iGrok asks which 3 people. Then announces time before night. Munk E suggests Lafali is suspicious and iGrok agrees, but admits the votes are pretty much locked in for Rookie. I LOVED this post. God damnit, I searched for like 5 minutes through the last few pages of the thread for someone linking a wiki post about how posts like the one above are clear markers for scum. Whatever. iGrok then suggests using Vigis early (this is just asking for a huge mistake to happen. iGrok then condemns Jackal as the one to start the Rookie lynch. He then suggests Treadmill is a townie because “everything he's done has been right. Everything.” I don't need to quote Treadmills posts to point out the flaws in the argument. Pyo goes on to say how retarded it would be to use Vigis now. + Show Spoiler + On June 07 2011 14:31 iGrok wrote: @Pyo: Sure medics are passive and not useful until DTs/Vigis claim. But with possibly no remaining medics, DTs can't claim without really good cause because we can't save them -__- Medics ARE important, much more important than you seem to think. I should have made clear that I wasn't officially accusing Jackal of being GF, just saying that his play would make sense if he were GF. For the moment, I have to go with treadmill here - Senj, xkcd, and kurumi are the most suspicious. Just going off of associations, I'd say that Alderan is probably Town as well | ||
Sprungjeezy
United States1313 Posts
The rest of his posts are mostly irrelevant noise, but all of this really cements my position that iGrok is scum and most probably GF. I apologize if some of the formatting isn't attractive, but hope this analysis is pretty accurate and fair. TL;DR iGrok spams Day 1 so people will come to the conclusion he is an experienced player and very helpful to town. Avoids bandwagoning like the plague so people will not be suspicious of his motives. Recommends doing stupid things like using Vigilantes early. And most obviously he abstains to being the first to accuse someone in all situations so that he won't be the one to throw the first stone. Finally, got it all out. Sorry about the 3rd to last post being chopped slightly. I'd edit it, but don't want to risk it. Perhaps if a mod would fix the little bit thats wrong. Happy reading. | ||
Sprungjeezy
United States1313 Posts
On June 09 2011 08:05 Sprungjeezy wrote: Yes the case against iGrok is much more intellectualy based on his actions that resemble that of an over ambitious GF and then the fact that his defense is him being silent about it. We really should get rid of iGrok first though. And IF the vote fails, we should have a Vig kill him. Also the last bit of my old post is not formatting correctly for some reason so it might take a bit for me to find a way to post it without it being ugly. I double post like a boss. But I just wanted to clarify, in no way do I feel iGrok has less chance of being scum than XCD. But obviously 3 people changing vote to a blue within 3 minutes of each other is a (arguably) more blatant than what iGrok being extraordinarily passive. But I feel iGrok is the bigger priority as he is leading the mafia (or so I am inclined to believe). | ||
Sprungjeezy
United States1313 Posts
But I wish to add something to our discussion. iGrok's "defence". He conceded, there is either too much against him, or he hopes the town would be forgiving/forgetful - as we may end up being today. This is why we NEED to vote him NOW instead of tomorrow. I do realize that he could easily be a townie trying to be "helpful" but for an experienced player I feel he is drawing TOO much attention to himself. That plus GGQ's post, plus my analysis (which actually cemented my feelings FURTHER) and the fact that he is not defending himself are shutting the case for my opinion. | ||
Sprungjeezy
United States1313 Posts
But if the vote ends with XCD on the noose, please shoot iGrok. | ||
Sprungjeezy
United States1313 Posts
On June 09 2011 11:06 Kairo wrote: I feel that we were lucky that we did not get a third townie kill with misvigies, since it would have caused huge amounts of confusion. How likely is it that iGrok and xkcd is on the same team? What would it mean if a) iGrok flips green? b) iGrok flips red? c) xkcd flips green? d) xkcd flips red? My current vote stands for xkcd, but i can still be convinced to change. If any mafia try to affect the grok/xkcd vote situation they will have to leave footprints, which is useful. Is there any 95%+ identified mafia in any of the "what if" scenarios a-d that we can use our vigies on? Is there any 95%+ identified BLATANTLY OBVIOUS FOR MAFIA medic target in any of the "what if" scenarios a-d that we can use? Do NOT out blues for the mafia. There is no need to do any analysis for them. For some of this to be relevant: when does abilites resolve? is it by timer or simuntaneusly at the end of the night? when does medic/vigi PM timing (early/late) matter? I believe this is potentially a double-edged sword, since stressing a decision for mafia could be useful while a premature medic/vigi decision could be really really bad. What would be nice would be to force a win/win situation for the town, but I can not see such a path clearly at this time. is the mafia allowed to change their targets during the night? Given: If targets are allowed to be changed and abilities resolve simuntaneusly at the end of the night then much of this post is garbage. So far I feel that most of the mafia have been throwing stones in the bushes with us townies. Lots of accusations the first night, and lots of chatter about who they trust and who they don't as well as votes being tossed every which way. From what I recall (and I recall most of it) iGrok didn't mention XCD all that much if at all, but I haven't analyzed XCD that much, he seems to be part of 3 people that did something very stupid and any of the three could be scum or just unlucky. But again, I haven't analyzed him all that much and others seem to have the vibe (or somewhat "proof" that he is scum, but I feel iGrok is a much more important target so I have been focusing on getting people to change to him. | ||
Sprungjeezy
United States1313 Posts
On June 09 2011 00:13 iGrok wrote: I stopped here. So you completely skipped me fighting with Kurumi? Back to reading. You know what, I'm done. I'm sick of defending myself against ridiculous tunnels. I'm sick of not being given credit for helping out newbies and pointing them towards good town play. And, I'm sick of being accused of being GF every time I defend myself. Cya. This is why iGrok stopped posting. He is unsure how to proceed with his defense or has conceded already. Personally I would feel terrible (and extremely annoyed) if iGrok was just a pissed off townie who didn't defend himself just to spite me, but I'm 95% sure he is Scum and probably GF. | ||
Sprungjeezy
United States1313 Posts
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Sprungjeezy
United States1313 Posts
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Sprungjeezy
United States1313 Posts
On June 09 2011 16:47 35spike1 wrote: I am SICK of these massive walls of text, so called 'analysises'. I know iGrok began the trend, but this is not a competition to see who can out perform eachother, we are here to hunt scum. xkcd, your post was 170521 characters long. I checked. To any new player, these massive walls of text would be a great way to discourage them from playing more games. Well guess what, all of us here are newbies. Try to remember, quality ≠ quantity. Look at Jackal, his post was very short, very concise, and swayed the whole town to kill Rookie. With just 2 posts, this and this, he managed to sway the whole town in just two hours. Today, the main two points have been against xkcd and iGrok. Although there is much evidence against both, iGrok has been much more constructive with his posts, whereas xkcd hasn't contributed much of anything. Much of his “analysis” was just lead up to bagging out Jackal. You don't need 30,000 words to explain that you think Jackal is GF. So for xkcd's lack of general helpfulness, the reasons that have already been stated numerous times, and giving me a headache, you get my vote ( Vote: amazingxkcd ). If these large posts deter newer members (this is my first forum mafia) then thats exactly what we should do. Do you think other Veteran Mafia threads are going to post LESS? This is probably a fraction of the posts they will see. As for the attack on Jackal by XKCD this only cements my feeling that Jackal is a townie. The lynching on Rookie was unfortunate, but that's what happens. The reasoning behind this, is that I feel XKCD, iGrok, and Treadmill are all scum. | ||
Sprungjeezy
United States1313 Posts
On June 10 2011 02:23 teamsolid wrote: I've been reading http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=147475 for some insight into reading scum tells. Basically what Ver shows us is that the most important theme among mafia posts is looking like they're contributing, but not actually say anything. Basically, a lot of empty words without performing any real analysis, not suggesting any targets and not coming to any conclusions. KXCD's post was actually the exact opposite of that. He actually analyzed players pretty deeply and used plenty of reasoning in his posts if you read it carefully. I haven't read all of it yet, but what I have read so far has made sense to me at least when I was reading it, and he gave strong conclusions about whether people were town or mafia. It's basically as Pro-Town as you can possibly get. That bolded part is very important in my case against iGrok, and would like everyone to read it and then my analysis on iGrok. As for XCD's analysis, I take it with less than a grain of salt as he has a lot of votes himself and would probably say anything to get people to not vote for him, yet instead of defending himself he throws blame other places. I feel it is important to stay focused on iGrok and not be distracted. I agree that we shouldn't stop discussion, but right now the votes are pretty split between iGrok and XCD and I am really pushing to get iGrok lynched today and XCD (or Jackal or Treadmill) tomorrow, but I feel it is most vital for iGrok tonight and right now posts from both Treadmill and XCD have been to get our attention shifted from iGrok while iGrok ceases to post in an attempt to "play dead so the bear walks away". | ||
Sprungjeezy
United States1313 Posts
I don't think I could express the amount of /facepalm I just did. Brb, reading rest of the posts after "XCD the DT lynched". | ||
Sprungjeezy
United States1313 Posts
For now I leave you with this I apologize for the meme, but it expresses my exact feelings. | ||
Sprungjeezy
United States1313 Posts
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