Pick Your Power Insane! - Page 2
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tnkted
United States1359 Posts
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tnkted
United States1359 Posts
Lets talk about incognito. I'm convinced that he is town. On May 17 2011 07:30 bumatlarge wrote: If you don't know what to post and you are town, just copy GMarshal. Write whatever you feel will help town, and even if it's awful, we can more easily determine your alignment. Not saying GM is faw shaw townie, but he isn't on my scumdar at all. When barundar posted this earlier I don't think that anyone read it very carefully. Townies should not be afraid to put forth their ideas, no matter how stupid they are. Don't be afraid to accuse somebody you think is scum. It's ok to rely on other people's scumsense when you play, by which I mean that if you are a townie, and act how you naturally feel is the best course of action, you will smell like a townie to those with good scumnoses. It's alright to trust that other people will be able to read you. The easiest way to look town is to actually be town. Its ok to trust yourself; it is harder for a townie to unintentionally act scummy than it is for a scum to unintentionally act scummy. This is a fairly advanced mafia doctrine. Most newer players tend not to believe this; they overvalue their own lives, and think that their death, right now, is the worst possible thing for town. When asked to rationalize this to themselves they say something like, "well, town is wasting a lynch" or "mafia is going to get another kill if we don't thin their numbers tonight." Unless its lylo or getting close to the end of the game, this is almost always false; by the time town is at that point in the game theres so much info out there anyway that a smart town should be able to pick out scummy players already. So how does this mean incog is green? Lets look at one of his posts. I bolded some of the more assertive comments (in spoilers, because the post is long): + Show Spoiler + On May 14 2011 13:30 Incognito wrote: List of invisible posters: GMarshal Kitaman27 tnkted Bum's post is on spot. Fortunately, I already mapped out some stuff. PYP Insane Game Plan The optimal picking strategy revolves around this cute little role: This role obsoletes the PYP1 and PYP3 role picking strategies. The mere existence of the thief on the role list means that it would be seriously harmful for mafia to know where the good roles are. Of course, it’s a no brainer that the good roles are in the beginning part of the list. So my only advice is that if you’re in the beginning of the list, seriously consider picking a role such as NRA member or Meth Man to deter the mafia from hitting/stealing roles from the top of the list. Due to the fact that the mafia can coordinate numbers with each other while the town can’t, it is very likely that mafia will get a spot within the top 3. As shown by the past PYP games, mafia has gotten the first or second spot in all 3 games. Which means town will likely have to be on the defensive, as it is hard to guarantee that we can effectively deny mafia the thief role. The amount of potential KP in this game is huge. This means that there is a huge potential for the game to end quickly. The basic town strategy should be to avoid KP roles, while going heavy on investigative and defensive roles to try to prolong the game. Tier I Roles Mafia 2 Detective + Vote Rigger Inventor Chuiu Jack Modern Detective Role Cop Bullet Bill PYP3 Veteran Doctor Bulletproof Mafia 2 Detective combined with the Vote Rigger is a combo that allows us to break up the town into chunks and analyze with greater ease. The formula is simple. The Vote Rigger rigs the Day 1 Vote into 4 roughly equal blocks with 7, 6, 6, and 5 voters each. All the lurkers/suspicious people are piled onto one list, and the Modern Detective uses his vote check to check one vote block each day, starting with the lurkers. Town then proceeds to analyze the split lists, allowing for more focused analyses. The rest of the investigative roles are used to sort through the lists, while the defensive roles prolong the game and squeeze the mafia. The Mafia will want these roles Kingmaker + Politician Thief Caller Godfather Roleblocker Janitor JailKeeper Puppeteer Hero PYP3 Veteran NRA Member CPR Doctor The best mafia combo pick is Kingmaker + Politician. This effectively gives mafia an unlimited anonymous unblockable dayvig power, capable of sniping off all the top town players. Caller Godfather is also an obvious mafia role. As anyone who’s read Caller’s Mafia V knows, Godfather recruiting high level townies with good roles is a town’s worst nightmare. Denying this role is iffy, as a mafia thief has plenty of time to try to find the role and steal it before it can actually be of use. Jailkeeper, roleblocker, and NRA member are powerful roles for the mafia that prevent investigations, and potentially save mafia from NKs. Hero and PYP 3 veteran cause town pain when mafia slip out of lynches and snipe off a townie. Lastly, puppeteer is surprisingly useful for a good mafia arguer, as it allows them to anonymously mislead town and cause tons of chaos in the thread. However, the most critical roles that we need to deny are the Thief, Politician, Jailkeeper, and Roleblocker. Due to the threat of a mafia thief, we can’t discuss precise strategy here, but townies should strongly consider picking one of these 4 roles. By the way KillerSOS is mafia. Also Node is mafia. Independently of whether you think his ideas are good (I disagree with the danger from thief, personally), simply reading his language makes clear that he is doing two things: 1. Taking charge of the situation (using phrases like, "Townies should pick these roles...") 2. Coming up with strategies (using phrases like, "The optimal strategy for town is...") There is a subtle, but important difference in between these two types of statements. Statements that take charge of the situation are assertive; they are always controlling, demanding, and forceful. they tell us to "do" something. Planning statements, however, are often not assertive at all. For example, lets take a look at a post by Chaoser: On May 17 2011 02:20 chaoser wrote: Well first I think, before the vote rigger does this, the day they want to change he vote, they should claim in thread if they're going to do this. Second, I think just randomly making lists isn't that great a plan. Instead we should wait till we have a suspects list and then do a regular vote while moving the people we suspect onto a separate person/vote. We either catch a few mafia or check some people. That being said, we should be wary of roles that can cover themselves which I want to ask Ver about: Which roles won't get caught by a votecheck? This is extremely passive. He says, "I think we should do this..." instead of, "This is the best plan." Then he points out that randomly making lists is stupid, and provides a different idea, which he immediately weakens by pointing out that roles can cover themselves. Why point out the plan in the first place if you hadn't thought it through? I don't think this makes chaoser look scummy in and of itself but it certainly doesn't make me think that's town. The reason for it is this: In this specific post, Chaoser is afraid to take a stand. Incognito, in the post I quoted above, is not afraid. I therefore conclude that Incognito was either scummily trying to take advantage of a power vacuum (which he wasn't, there are plenty of other strong posters/personalities in the thread during this game, Ace and GM and radfield and infinitestory come to mind), or he is town and trusts the rest of us to recognize that he is being honest. Incognito is green. Now, when I last graced your company, GM asked me to post a scumlist. I can do that. Here are the scummiest people on the board: Mr. Wiggles - He's acting like a very cautious version of himself; it's been pointed out several times. Foolishness - Has hardly posted at all, and when he has its been encouraging wifom like this: On May 17 2011 05:14 Foolishness wrote: Incognito is third to last on the draft order, no way he got one of those two roles. And as someone already pointed out, the obscene amount of number collisions on the bottom half of the draft give way to the idea that most mafia are probably in the top half. Someone said this is a wifom argument, which I have to strongly disagree with. In a game like this with imba roles and a near unlimited amount of imba combo's, would mafia really pick the same numbers so as to possibly construct a wifom argument in the late game to save them from getting lynched? Heck no. If this was a normal PYP game I could potentially see the merit in this, but not in this game. If the mafia spread out and get a lot of members in the top 5 or slots (which very well may be the case this game) they could easily grab some imba combo a win in 2 or 3 days. It's pointless for us to sit here and speculate what kind of imba combo's the mafia might have, but we should definitely assume that 1) there are very many of them and 2) they probably have one. Would mafia do this one plan? No, because this other plan might work better. I see red wine in front of me. Barundar - Has been been using the same weak phrasing as Chaoser did above, except he's been doing it all game. I'm less certain about this. Those are my three scummiest reads (chaoser is a close fourth, but I'll save that for another time). My top three town reads are 1. Incognito - above 2. Radfield - Rad has been probably the most confident townie so far this game, other than possibly Incognito. He's playing like he knows hes town, and hes daring somebody to waste their time trying to prove otherwise. A true red-white-and-blue American. 3. Ace - Ace is really hard to read because he plays such a good scumgame; he completely dominated us in sleeper cell. However this game he's been much less insulting and assertive than he was last time; the difference in behavior leads me to believe that he's town. Sorry for being afk for most of yesterday. By friday (if I live that long!) I should be more active. | ||
tnkted
United States1359 Posts
On May 19 2011 12:29 Incognito wrote: Yes I do, but if nobody cares about this game, I won't bother. See, I can play this game too! Oh don't be a child. I care about the game. Post your analysis. If you give up, mafia wins. | ||
tnkted
United States1359 Posts
I guess that probably means they got all the alignment blocking roles, yes? | ||
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On May 19 2011 20:24 bumatlarge wrote: I agree with rad that wiggles should probably kill someone soon. Don't think wiggles is scum, so I'd say use your best judgement wiggies! (CHAOSER) Read Infy's analysis on incognito, im not really sold yet. Incog told me things I didn't know. I feel that indicates him as town more then not. He is being extremely wishy-washy with his voting, but I've been ignoring that I suppose. Don't really know how he plays, I just hear he's good. He helped at first but lately with picking candidates and stating reasons we haven't been on the same page. And Ace seems like obvious town at this point. He's a rolechecker, and all the roles I went through with that are just way too pro-town, and for him not to be a rolechecker, both he and rad would have to be scum. That said, protect Ace! I'm very curious as to what rad is since he isnt voterigger. AGENDA MUCH? I think rad is probably a townie role, and a sensitive one that Ace doesn't want to reveal... If it was a scummy role, Ace would have just announced it in thread, but instead he's keeping it a secret until rad posts. I think hes trying to prompt rad to claim. I don't know though, I don't understand Ace's play very well. :/ Regarding IF: I think IF is pretty obviously town but as I mentioned earlier I don't think incog is mafia at all. Incog has put himself into the spotlight very early with the hope of leading town, which people naturally find suspicious (look what happened to kavdragon). Maybe a scum incog could get away with this in a less stacked game, but we have no less than four high profile vetrans who have all played with each other multiple times, and that sort of buisness isn't going to work here. Now, I was very suspicious of Node previously but his analysis of foolishness I agree with. Did anyone check node? If Node is green I'd bet the farm that foolishness is scum. I still think foolishness is scum but I don't think Node would bus him at this point unless they knew that he'd been checked, which they would have no way of knowing if they don't have a watcher, which is a stupid role for scum to take anyway. | ||
tnkted
United States1359 Posts
+ Show Spoiler + I don't have the dough, if someone could lend me 150 bucks i'd be much obliged | ||
tnkted
United States1359 Posts
If that person were to type something like #burn incognito we could get a fourth kill today (counting wiggles and incog's just revealed nuke power). This is assuming of course that inventions could be misused like this. Either way, if rose colored glasses always return red (which seems likely given the name) they have lenses, and those lenses could focus the sun.... also, didn't incog put america on a no-pick list? wtf? Just an idea. | ||
tnkted
United States1359 Posts
On May 20 2011 02:39 GMarshal wrote: Are you high? Inventions do what their description states nothing else, otherwise who knows what shenanigans people could up to with inventions. Unless you know something about the glasses we don't. no, I was just going from this: On May 16 2011 03:35 Radfield wrote: The key is not to find pro-town inventions per se, but rather to find pro-town inventions which are unambiguous. A robotic dog could kill a player when they try to use it, a broadcast tower could send a signal to explode a bomb inside a vest that the inventor handed out, etc. Anyways, this is all likely moot, as a townie inventor will probably get roleblocked, and a mafia inventor will just not invent, and claim they got roleblocked. Anyways, we have plenty of time to talk about this, as we have over 72 hours before the inventor has to invent. However, we do need to discuss the pro-town role list, and the 'no pick' list. Is there anything that doesn't belong, or should belong, on those lists?? I've never played a game with an inventor, but a clever player could probably use an item in different ways, beyond what it was intended for. ver, is this true? can you misuse inventor's items? | ||
tnkted
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On May 20 2011 03:13 Node wrote: It sure doesn't seem like there's any "room for interpretation" with inventions. Out of the five people on the Kav voting list, I'm most willing to believe that Chezinu is scum. But now I'm completely unsure about Incognito. I didn't think scum would be willing to risk choosing America, but at the same time I feel that it's extremely anti-town to force three kills in one day, especially when Chezinu might have died by Wiggles' hand, without discussing it at all in public. And if Chezinu is scum, then we've got the mother of all WIFOMs on our hands as we wonder whether or not Incog bussed him -- and because we know (provided GMarshal's not in on this) there's another scum on that list, we'll lynch blindly and waste who knows how many days. I can't take this move as being good for the town. Therefore, Incognito just got a lot more scummy to me. Oh, ok. I guess that settles that then. I agree with the anti-incog wagon here. Also since INCOG HIMSELF agrees with it: Everyone should agree that getting rid of Chezinu is a pro-town move. Especially now that there is a vote check on the Kavdragon lynch. Now seriously, what mafia would shoot into a vote list that has 2/6 red on it? Unless of course I am conspiring with GMarshal to screw over the town, this doesn't make any sense. But then again, conspiring with GMarshal doesn't make too much sense either if I'm announcing that option. Furthermore, it makes no sense for mafia to take America. Especially after Radfield proclaimed it an anti-town role. But if you think about it, its the most transparent role in the game. There's no way for me to hide from a misuse of the role, and its not like I can use it to kill blatant townspeople without significant backlash. Frankly put, America is a ridiculous option for mafia. There are way better KP roles for them to use. So feel free to pile your votes on me now. Nobody else type the nuke command. When Ver confirms that a nuke has been launched, you can all take your votes off me, ok? Callin' your bluff. #Vote incognito | ||
tnkted
United States1359 Posts
Wiggles, do not lynch incognito. It is clear that he isn't mafia. He's been contributing solid plans all game, with very precise, assertive language. He has posted scumlists. He has written HUGE posts, several times, and all of them were informative and helpful and steered town in... well, in directions if not in the best direction. A guided town is better than a chaotic town. Wiggles, you should hit Caller or Flamewheel instead. Of the people on the list, Caller seems like most mafia to me. But it should be obvious from his posting style, and if not that, the fact that he posted his thoughts on half the players in the game as a goodbye note should sway you. Scum wouldn't bother; look at how chez is reacting to his imminent death. | ||
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On May 21 2011 00:28 Barundar wrote: I agree with tnkted on incog's reaction being very town, and when i read through incog's reads they seem fair and well reasoned. The problem with the incog bandwagon since day 1 has been noone really took responsability for it. It has been several weak votes votes that simply met little resistance. Yesterday i kept hoping for ace or foolishness to point out what exactly it was that deemed incog mafia, but they never did. Both of them also switched votes (or in foolishness' case tried) near the end indicating a nowhere near strong case. Today it has been more of the same, with suspicious people like chaoser simply requesting that we stuck to discussing the same targets as yesterday. When incog claims america he is met with an attitude of "you knew you where gonna be suspicious, so you picked the most obvious role no mafia would pick to fool us. Calling your bluff!", which is obviously a bs WIFOM argument. Do you really think that not one of his buddies would support his claim if he was really mafia? feels like im the only one here pointing out the simplest explanation: he really is town, and he picked a role no sane mafia would pick. My opinion is: we hit mafia with chezinu. There is one scum left between incog, flamewheel, node and caller. Im leaning towards flamewheel being it, but it is by no means a strong reason. So instead we should hit the most obvious scum: killerSOS or chaoser. The calling your bluff post was actually me. Heh. Incog's nuke of chezinu was scummy as hell at the time, so I figured he was trying to direct attention away from him, attention that until that point I had thought was probably undeserved. I expected chezinu to step up and be a man, and start posting scumlists before the buzzer. Instead, he just disappeared and made troll posts; clear mafia signs. There was no reason for incog to reveal himself as america in order to kill chezinu, who is clearly scum at this point. If he wanted to bus chez he could have just pushed for a lynch or told his scumbuddy to say something incriminating. The fact that he resorted to nukes is a sign of innocence. | ||
tnkted
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Apparently Killer claimed tracker. Thats a bad mafia role. Should Node claim? Personally I'm more leaning towards killer being scum, given his weak results claim, but I'm wondering if Node can do any better. Node, don't claim yet, I want to see what other people think about this. Also, I unvoted incognito, so take me off that list. I still have to choose who I want to kill tonight. | ||
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If ON flips green, I'm voting KillerSoS. If he flips red I'm going to vote KillerSoS. f5f5f5f5f5f5 | ||
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##vote KillerSoS | ||
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tnkted
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Incog/Ace: Stop arguing about the lynch tmrw before we see what happens tonight. Both of you could be dead. I'm surprised ace isn't dead already; incog's life doesn't suprise me so much because mafia could just say "oh we'll lynch him tomorrow, he can't possibly escape again." That being said, I'm not sold on an ace lynch... Incog just posted a big ol' wall of text talking about how ace has avoided his pressure, but from my own (limited) experience playing with ace, he doesn't always RESPOND to pressure. Thats part of what makes him so fustrating. Regardless, neither of the two of them are our most important lynch targets tomorrow. Assuming that Chezinu isn't vig'd tonight, he's almost certain to be our lynch tomorrow - or was the plan to have the kingmaker do it? That's just dandy as well. Meap: No, I am not the Bus Driver. I didn't even try to get that role, despite claiming I wanted it. Actually, the fact that I claimed I would be taking that role should have dissuaded the people lower than me on the list from trying to take it. That would mean that bus driver is somewhere above me. Here's the list (if someone wanted to fill in roles and fill in the blanks, that'd be great): On May 15 2011 13:01 Ver wrote: Draft Order Results: 1. Flamewheel 2. Scamp 3. Caller 4. Barundar 5. Radfield claimed but i don't recall what it was 6. GMarshal 7. Deconduo vanilla? 8. Foolishness 9. bumatlarge watcher 10. Kavdragon Vanilla? I don't remember 11. Chaoser 12. Fishball 13. KillerSOS 14. Eiii 15. Infinitestory 16. Dreamflower 17. Mr.Wiggles 18. Original Name Village Idiot 19. tnkted 20. Chezinu 21. Ace 22. Kurumi 23. Incognito 24. Node copycat/inventor 25. kitaman27 Now if we look at the list, who are the people above me that still don't have roles claimed, but are suspicious? Forgive me if I am forgetting a role here, but my suspicion list would include: Chaoser Eiii Foolishness Mr. Wiggles I'm debating whether or not to throw dreamflower/meap on here, but I really suspect that he's actually the assassin. Look at Dreamflower's posting style before she was replaced: it was rare, but huge posts that helped town a lot, which allowed her to stay under towns radar while also staying on townie lists. Thats a sign of either a blue role (we all blue roles!) or a third party. I'm also debating ace for the reasons above. Anyway, time to party like its 1999. IM RAPTURE READY BABY | ||
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