Pick Your Power Insane! - Page 2
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Incognito
United States2071 Posts
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Incognito
United States2071 Posts
In Pokemafia, Kavdragon comes up with a long LSB accusation. Nice and all, except that he doesn't follow up. A few posts later, almost nothing is mentioned about LSB, and he goes off to vote some other random person. Compare to this game, where Kavdragon makes an accusation on Node, and then lets it get buried in the thread. Now I'm 100% certain Kavdragon will be lynched, so here's my suggestion. Keep the votes close among the 4 candidates, with Kavdragon in the lead. If any "save Kavdragon" agenda appears to be occuring, everyone has my full blessing to ignore the assigned vote lists and ensure that Kavdragon is lynched. | ||
Incognito
United States2071 Posts
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Incognito
United States2071 Posts
On May 18 2011 09:32 Radfield wrote: I disagree with the Kavdragon lynch. I'll admit that I've been skim reading some of his later posts, but after a quick look through, I still don't get the scum vibe. I agree with some of your points Incog, but on the whole disagree with the conclusion. Mind you, I haven't read through his other games, so your opinion is a bit more learned than mine. Anyways, Kav has had some bold, unafraid posts in this game. He has been disagreeing with people with reckless abandon, and for at least the first half of the game, seemed very confident. Again, can't compare with his other games, but i'm really picking up the opposite vibe. Another possible reason to vote Barundar over Kavdragon, is that if he's mafia Barundar very likely took CPR Doc. He was 'assigned' this role, so would not look suspicious if he took it, and it's very difficult to discover if he uses it or not. Please point out some of these "bold, unafraid posts". Disagreeing with people is normal, especially in a game such as this one where the lynch is fragmented. It also depends on what he is disagreeing on. I'm not sure I see these posts you are referring to though. Before you make a final call, I suggest you look back at some of his previous games, namely XXXVIII and XXXIV. They're totally different styles and it shows. And the point about Barundar likely being CPR doc is moot. There are plenty of good mafia roles. If we lynch one, we're likely to knock out something good. | ||
Incognito
United States2071 Posts
On May 18 2011 09:36 Scamp wrote: Well, if Incognito is town he sure knows how to save his ass with long posts and fresh plans. I don't like how his plan revolves around roles being selected that we don't know are actually in the game (both vote rigger and list-checking DTs/inventors) and his plan is basically dividing up the town in a way that no one is expecting to work. But if we do go along with it he did narrow the suspects down to four. Kind of curious how I made the short list over Chaoser, though.. If you survive the lynch, will you promise me to give me the vote list check kit if you are the inventor? I won't tell anyone that you are truly the inventor. Promise. | ||
Incognito
United States2071 Posts
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Incognito
United States2071 Posts
On May 18 2011 09:52 Scamp wrote: If you want my cooperation in any way it's probably best if you A: don't target me as a lynch target and B: answer my questions (or statements that are question-like). Odd, though. I don't really feel like this threat of being lynched is serious. Its not, I don't expect you to be lynched. I expect Kavdragon to be lynched. You are just for list check purposes. On May 18 2011 09:54 Radfield wrote: Funny enough I had some posts(the node fos and another one) that I was going to use as examples at the end of my post. Upon rereading I decided not to include them, as I felt they didn't really quite satisfy the requirement. Perhaps this is a sign you're right. Anyways, my hesitancy to lynch Kavdragon stems from 2 places: 1) In any other game I've played in, players who have posted like Kavdragon this game always flip Town. Nothing I've seen this game from Kav has triggered alarm bells for me, and to tell the truth has actually done the opposite(it doesn't feel like he's trying to be town). I realize you're basing your lynch push not necessarily off posts this game, but rather comparisons to other games. In this I'll have to trust you. If Kav lives another day, I promise I'll look through those games, but I don't have the pizazz to do it right now(i'm tired and ready for bed). 2) I can't shake the feeling that you are redirecting people away from my Barundar vote. I've been fooled by you before, and as such you have only yourself to blame. With that in mind, I feel it's best to go with my strong suspicion of Barundar(a suspicion you share). Are you willing to leave off on Kavdragon for Day 1(let ace shoot him if you want ) to lend me a vote on Barundar? After all, it's what you're asking of me. The aforementioned quotes: + Show Spoiler + On May 14 2011 13:28 Kavdragon wrote: I picked [1.5][0.5]. Am i doing it right? ...or we can get down to business: Node. Cool story. What role did you get? Node's ideas are wrong, and wrong in a way that benefits mafia. Mafia wants to get the powerful roles, and the will try to get them. Anything beyond this is WIFOM. We can build a list of roles that the mafia will likely try to obtain, and have town go after those roles. If a townie and a mafia try to get the same role, town wins: The ratio of mafia to townies is 1/4, so if we send one townie to block a role that the mafia want, we only allocate 1/4 of the manpower that the mafia has to in order to try for the role, and they have no better chance of getting that power than the townie does. This is very similar to the reason that 1-1 trades work well. I'm not saying that we should not go for pro-town roles, but that we need to also go for anti town roles. We have a manpower advantage over the mafia, and we should utilize it. Compound this with the fact that node states his opinions very tentatively, and you've got yourself an FOS: node. On May 16 2011 08:25 Kavdragon wrote: So... I meant to post this a while ago, but ended up without a internet connection till now. As I see it there are two general ways that each side can go: You can deny the other team's power roles, or you can gain your team's power roles. Statistically it's a horrible idea for the mafia to try to deny us, rather than gain power roles. (Because of the limited number of players on their team) Even though the mafia has the advantage of being able to communicate and organize, I think that the town still has a huge advantage at this stage because of sheer manpower. We have three times the number of players, and I think that using that advantage is going to be key in getting the upper hand in this drafting phase. What I mean is this: We have enough players to both block the mafia from getting their most powerful roles, AND still pick up our most powerful roles. The only thing that we need to figure out is what order we need to take those roles. As mentioned earlier, the mafia can't afford to get any roles that are powerful for the town, unless they are also powerful for the mafia. Because of this, I think that any powers that are weak for the mafia should NOT be chosen early even if they are very powerful for the town. The top picks should be roles that are powerful for both sides, followed by roles that are very powerful in mafia hands (but not so much in town hands), followed by roles that are powerful for town (but not so much for mafia). People have said that we should just not pick mafia roles, and lynch anyone found with them. I disagree strongly, as it is that sort of passive play that will allow the mafia to get exactly what they need, and rofl stomp us. Those role will very likely be taken regardless, so I'd rather do something like Radfield is suggesting, and assign them to people, so that we know where those roles are. Sorry if it covers some things that have already been talked about. Radfield: Even if Flamewheel isn't willing to take thief, it would still work if we just shifted everything down a position, right? You must tell the difference between "people who post like Kavdragon in other games" and "Kavdragon's posting in other games". The differences in aggression/focus are very telling in both games. How have I fooled you before? And the reason why I'm trying to lynch Kavdragon over Barundar is that Kavdragon is more suspicious. Barundar was risky enough to attack Caller for spreading out the votes, which from a mafia point of view isn't the best thing to do. I'm ok with investigative roles checking Barundar though. Don't be fooled by the Node accusation post. Here is a post from Kavdragon when he's mafia. The key difference here is not that Kavdragon makes a bold accusation, its that he makes a bold accusation but doesn't follow through with this in subsequent posts. The second post is just a terrible suggestion. He suggests that people prioritize roles that benefit the mafia over roles that benefit the town. I don't see how this makes him town at all. On May 18 2011 10:18 Ace wrote: Also these "likely town" lists are also hilarious. Fake effort all around. Managing "vote lists" by Incognito's whim. Scamp and chaoser accused of lurking, when there are blatant fishy posts in front of our eyes. Incognito, Radfield. Flip a coin. I never accused Scamp/chaoser of lurking. If you look back at my list they're both under the "List of suspicious people", so we both agree there. Chezinu - This list will consist of suspicious people Node Scamp GMarshal chaoser Barundar Kavdragon We seem to be in agreement on a lot of things (except for the "lynch finger pointers" thing). So please stop opposing me and maybe we can not rip each other to shreds for a change? | ||
Incognito
United States2071 Posts
On May 18 2011 11:00 kitaman27 wrote: Sigh this is a mess how spread out the votes are. If nobody wants to lynch deconduo today, I hope someone shoots or checks him tonight. Switching to Barundar. Why are you voting Barundar? On May 18 2011 11:12 GMarshal wrote: I laugh at how I'm "obviously mafia", tunneling much incog? Please point out my scum motivated posts and then maybe I'll take you somewhat seriously. Although its not likely. Is anyone else getting bad vibes from this lynch? I feel like neither Barundar nor Kav are scum, as Barundar called a lot of attention himself with the whole "focus your vote" thing, which was something that needed to be said, I don't understand the wagon on him at all. Kav has been trying so hard its not even funny, and I just don't see the reasoning behind lynching him as solid, as a matter of fact they seem to me to be a bunch of meta considerations that are best ignored, while meta is fine for solidifying a case, its a terrible thing to base lynches on, every game is different, and peoples play styles change. I'm still not sure of who to vote for, I don't like any of the current lynch candidates, theres still some time before the deadline, so I'll think on it. So what you're trying to say is: you're ignoring my analysis because you don't like the way I'm playing. Oh wait a second, thats what you did last game! And you turned out to be mafia. Please don't disappoint me. I've posted analyses on Kavdragon here and here. | ||
Incognito
United States2071 Posts
On May 18 2011 11:40 Kavdragon wrote: @incog + Show Spoiler + On May 18 2011 08:32 Incognito wrote: Also Kavdragon, who has this strange fixation to defending himself without saying anything about me or pushing an alternative. Um, firstly, I HAVE talked about you. I've been defending my style of play, something very similar to yours early on. I've mentioned you in many of the examples I pointed out to ace where he was putting down early "bs" pressure. I'm not pushing you as an alternative because, as I have already said several times, I don't like lynching good players day 1. Day 1 reads are hard, and I've never been in favor of risking them on valuable players. You are a valuable player AND I supported what you were doing, so why would I suggest you as an alternative? On May 18 2011 08:59 Incognito wrote: Incorrect. Here's a post from XXXVIII. This comes early Day 1. Notice how bold and confident it is. Was he wrong? Yes. Honestly, his case is made off of very little information and many assumptions. But that didn't stop him. After his first accusation post he keeps pushing. Even after this, he keeps mentioning his thoughts. All throughout the day he points out scum. Not "gathering information", but real accusations. He accuses at least 5 people throughout day 1. Even when DH says he will consider lynching him, Kav remains aggressive, maintains his focus on DH, and dares DH to lynch him. That is aggressive, risky play. Now look at this game. Kavdragon suddenly retracts into his hole, is "afraid" of good players, and needs to poke for information. He doesn't follow a coherent train of thought, and his defense isn't anywhere near convincing either. He doesn't strongly accuse anyone of anything, and his defense shows that he cares a lot. Overall, strong case for red. ##Vote Kavdragon The reason why I kept pushing was because the Dr.H thing was NOT a pressure play. I honestly thought that he was mafia, and I was making a serious attempt to lynch him. And regarding Dr.H saying he'll lynch me? How is that any different than Ace saying he'll shoot me? I continued to argue with him long after he threatened that. I've never said I was afraid of good players. If that were that were the case, why would I have picked a fight with Ace, and why would I be responding to you? On May 18 2011 09:29 Incognito wrote: For the sake of completeness, lets compare Kavdragon's play in XXXVIII and this game to XXXIV (Pokemafia). In Pokemafia, Kavdragon comes up with a long LSB accusation. Nice and all, except that he doesn't follow up. A few posts later, almost nothing is mentioned about LSB, and he goes off to vote some other random person. Compare to this game, where Kavdragon makes an accusation on Node, and then lets it get buried in the thread. Now I'm 100% certain Kavdragon will be lynched, so here's my suggestion. Keep the votes close among the 4 candidates, with Kavdragon in the lead. If any "save Kavdragon" agenda appears to be occuring, everyone has my full blessing to ignore the assigned vote lists and ensure that Kavdragon is lynched. You fail to mention that I brought the case against LSB well after day one. I've never been aggressive as scum day one. Are you looking through mafia goggles? Honestly, lynching anyone who is vocal day one is a bad idea. I've said this in previous games, when I was town. Why all of a sudden then you are so convinced about DH/Protactinium in that game and in this game you are so confused? There are plenty of things to talk about. There is no lack of information in this game. Yet you seem to act like there is. The way you argued with DH after he said he was going to lynch you is TOTALLY in a different character than the way you are arguing now. In the last game, you laughed it off and dared DH to actually lynch you. You had nothing to lose, and you made a risky play. In this game, you are attempting to defend yourself in a safe way and don't take risks. Thats because in this game, you are actually afraid of dying. You're afraid of good players. You're afraid that we will actually get you lynched, so you're not taking your chances. Your statement about LSB is incorrect.. As mafia in Pokemafia you attacked LSB on page 18, when day 1 ended on page 23. So that statement is obviously false. Also, Ace and I apparently aren't afraid to lynch vocal people day 1. If you're mafia, you go down. Period. | ||
Incognito
United States2071 Posts
On May 18 2011 11:57 GMarshal wrote: I'm ignoring your analysis of Kav, because as I said its all based on meta considerations. While those are nice to supplement already solid analysis they are a bad thing to base your cases exclusively on, as peoples attitude and style can change from game to game. As I read it your analysis boils down to "he played more aggressive last game, he isn't as aggressive this game". The only thing that might sell me on that lynch is the fact that he isn't pressing any of his accusations, he fingerpoints and then doesn't push for that targets lynch, which, *independent* of meta consideration is a trait of mafia who look to be contributing without contributing. Especially considering all the time he had to "gather information", however I don't think that that alone is damning enough to push for his lynch (and before people say that that's what I did with df and killerSOS, I left killer to the vigis, and am not going to push df and thus derail what seems to be a decent selection of lynch targets). I'm not ignoring your arguments, just saying that in my mind they don't seem to be that solid, come back with posts that show pushing for mafia objectives or a non-town mindset behind them and I'll get behind the kavdragon lynch, but you are going to need something more solid than "he is playing different" to sway me. Ace plays different every game, do we lynch him for that? My analysis is an extension of Caller's analysis. It is not all based on meta considerations. Mafia want to make it look like they're contributing without actually contributing. They want to look like they're being aggressive townies without having to be accountable for their actions. They want to push lynches without being fingered for starting the bandwagon. They want to appear to be leading lynches even though the lynches don't get anywhere. Kavdragon has done exactly that. He appears to be pro-town in attacking Node, even though he doesn't follow up on it and pretty much ignores it thereafter. Kavdragon is trying to hide the fact that he doesn't want to be responsible for any lynch. This is clearly what mafia want to do. The comparison to the XXXVIII and XXXIV games just solidify this line of reasoning. Kavdragon's behavior in past games lines up exactly with what we would expect a mafia to do. Please don't take the fact that I accused you earlier personally. Kavdragon is now my target. If you can look at this objectively I think you'll come to the same conclusion as I did too. | ||
Incognito
United States2071 Posts
On May 18 2011 12:03 Ace wrote: That is a great point. Why so timid KD? I think we have to avoid lynching Barundar right now for sure though. Don't like those votes on him at all. For the most part I agree. Dreamflower and KillerSOS were on my Barundar list, but other than that, the other 3 should be voting someone else. Kavdragon is a wayy better target than Barundar. | ||
Incognito
United States2071 Posts
On May 18 2011 12:03 Ace wrote: ##vote Radfield So much for being anti-finger pointing, huh? :D | ||
Incognito
United States2071 Posts
On May 18 2011 12:28 Barundar wrote: Well that was silly. Please don't screw the vote list up with vote rigging. To the townies voting for me (I'm looking at you bum), I hope you shape up after this! My reads for day 0+1 was: Mafia: Incognito (obv) one of dreamflower/kitaman - lurk all day-->weak reason to vote me KillerSOS - clearly watching thread without writing, dooms me without even posting. OriginalName - surfing modkill tresshold, reading thread but placeholder vote. I didn't find Radfield to be mafia, traitor at worst. Take my reads with a grain of salt, its day 1 after all. In general I don't think mafia was very active day 1. Town did the work for them by throwing around mass accusations. The town had a serious case of everyone thinking they where smarter than everyone else. Sometimes playing town is not about accusations, but about picking the right persons to listen to. All mafia had to do was lay low. GL everyone~ You seem to sleep for a rather short time. | ||
Incognito
United States2071 Posts
So mafia wasn't active day 1, yet I'm mafia? Would you say I was inactive? I'd say that I am the most visible player in the thread, but of course I could be wrong. | ||
Incognito
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And from your previous observation that mafia was content having 10 lynch targets, I'd say that if I was mafia, I'd be content to sit out on the sidelines and watch someone else get lynched, no? | ||
Incognito
United States2071 Posts
On May 18 2011 12:54 Barundar wrote: You keep talking about your playstyle and whether people like it :/. I didn't vote you for your playstyle, I voted you for your lack of reasons. You have only started doing analysis and reasons after you got a head in vote. You seemed quite content until you actually got a head... Actually if I was mafia, I'd have up to 6 teammates to help defend me. I probably would've never been ahead. I wouldn't need to pop up randomly and defend myself. Unless of course you want to call all my supporters mafia. I'd just take a step back and analyze the whole situation for a moment. If I am mafia, I'm the craziest most terrible mafia ever. | ||
Incognito
United States2071 Posts
On May 18 2011 12:56 Eiii wrote: I'm absolutely not comfortable lynching kav today. I'm having a hard time convincing myself to even switch my vote to one of the two lynchees at the moment. Care to elaborate? | ||
Incognito
United States2071 Posts
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Incognito
United States2071 Posts
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Incognito
United States2071 Posts
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