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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On May 13 2011 12:02 DropBear wrote: Kita, while I am unsure on Jaminz, note in my analysis that AO defends Jaminz. If you are right about him being GF, it makes sense.
Why push those two rather than sinani? What changed your mind that he isn't mafia anymore?
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On May 13 2011 12:08 jaminz wrote: Well, I think it's safe to say that there are no medics in this setup. I don't see any way a medic would have saved anyone except sandroba.
Thanks for your input.
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On May 13 2011 22:36 chaos13 wrote:Show nested quote +On May 13 2011 11:58 kitaman27 wrote:
Secondary Scum Suspects 23. Impervious - Few posts to go on based on the double replacement. Came out looking bad after the sinani lynch. I might consider swapping him with ilovejonn. 17. DropBear - On the wrong side of the first two lynches and role claims at a weird time. Thoughts might change based on the analysis he is promising before the day post. 21. chaos13 - Defends irish day one and then appears apologetic, votes for Cthsazsa day two I would like to point out that I did not vote for Cthsazsa. I was the third vote on Amber[Light], and it stayed there. I have in fact never voted for Cthsazsa.
Opps, sorry I was mistaken.
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On May 14 2011 03:10 sinani206 wrote: I just said, I think I'm town.
You "think" you're town? Did you decide not to read your role pm or something? :/
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On May 14 2011 03:34 ilovejonn wrote: I agree, at least killing me will provide you guys with more information. I'll do whatever town needs the most.
You can't be serious can you? No town would willingly lynch himself for information.
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
Oh god, 4 hours during a day cycle with no posts. Time to prod the lurkers.
On May 11 2011 14:01 Conversion wrote: Post behavior wise I can't really draw up a conclusion on Sinani and ilovejohn because they don't have any... substantial posts. It's suspicious at best.
You have 3 posts in the last 30 pages. If you can't draw a conclusion on sinani and jonn, how do you expect us to have any idea about you?
On May 13 2011 13:16 Conversion wrote: Hey guys. I know I'm not really helping town by being really quiet and voting for myself.
Is kenpachi pretty much confirmed townie from his vig claim?
Then why are you doing it anyways?
Yes. No one ever counter-claimed, so its safe to assume he is town.
On May 13 2011 22:22 redtooth wrote: Erm. I'm still here guys, just sitting back after my analysis was shown to be flawed. But I'd like to reiterate the following - we should wait until day to start doing analysis UNLESS you would want a vigi hit. Seeing as we're not sold 100% on Sinani, might as well wait to see who gets killed and what they flip.
You have 4 posts in the last 30 pages. Congrats, you are marginally less unhelpful than conversion. Do you want people to feel sorry for you or something? Your analysis was wrong during day one and day two, but that doesn't mean that earns you a free pass to sit back and watch until late game.
On May 10 2011 16:04 elmizzt wrote: about time someone paid attention to me! I was feeling unloved :o
Six posts in the last 30 pages. Give this guy a gold star. Oh wait, the only analysis you've provided is "lol scum, he plays sc2 mafia". Bravo.
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
Thanks again for your contribution.
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
RIP Kenpachi. I'll probably post my thoughts on the next lynch sometime tomorrow.
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On May 17 2011 00:44 DropBear wrote:Show nested quote +EVERYONE GET IN HERE There have been only 26 posts in 12 hours. Nobody is saying anything so lets get organised. Chaoser isn't alive anymore and his list has almost run dry so we need to start thinking for ourselves, not sitting back. Mafia is content for everyone to sit back and do nothing. - Jaminz, redtooth, AirbladeOrange, kitaman27, Mig have all disappeared. All of you need to start posting, stat. - Jaminz, redtooth, AO, ilovejonn and orgolove have not responded to arguments against them. Get in here and explain yourselves. kitaman27, orgolove and Impervious, give us proper analysis of ilovejonn other than just voting patterns. Some of you have analysed him previously but you need to update it. Orgolove, voting alone is not enough. Look at his behaviour as well. redtooth, elmizzt and Forumite do Jaminz. Xedat you seem keen to do orgolove, as does Forumite. Get to it. Jaminz you do it as well. Chaos13, ilovejonn me have Impervious. AO and VarpuliS do redtooth.
I agree everyone should be posting, but I dislike it when a certain people are told to analyze specific people. It hides information about their motives since they are told who to push/defend. Everyone should be analyzing who they feel is most scummy. I also find it incredibly weird that no one performing post death analysis on dead scum. Reading through sinani's at the moment.
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
So I read through all of sinani's posts and didn't really find anything of value except a couple possible WIFOM arguments. Instead I did a search for all the references of sinani206. Opening ~150 different tabs is really a pain. Even worse, I accidentally lost my post part way through so I had to reopen a bunch more -_-
I split the posts I found in two categories: Pro-town and suspicious. Orgoloves spreadsheet only keeps track of voting records, but I think thread presence and whether someone attacks or defends a scum should also be taken into account.
Pro-town + Show Spoiler +On May 06 2011 14:01 DropBear wrote:[Long analysis] CONCLUSION sinani206 is Mafia On May 10 2011 13:16 DropBear wrote: I suggest lynch Sinani today and we pressure the other two. On May 10 2011 22:49 Impervious wrote: Others were two people that chaoser found suspicious, and I agree with him - sinani and ilovejohn. On May 11 2011 09:13 Varpulis wrote: [long analysis]
That wraps it up. Those are seriously Sinani206's only quality posts. He's lurking loudly and not contributing, and that screams scum to me. Add that to the fact that he his only real posts are either misinformation or filled with suspicious reads, and I'm ready to lynch this guy right now. On May 11 2011 14:11 Varpulis wrote: Alright then. I think we should lynch Sinani today, for reasons I've already stated. On May 12 2011 05:58 kitaman27 wrote: the way sinani took three posts to announce an upcoming post that was completely empty like all his other posts makes me feel like he is the scummier of the two. On May 12 2011 09:25 Varpulis wrote:It's scummy to me because On May 13 2011 09:18 Impervious wrote: And am more than willing to lynch sinani during the day anyways. But w/e. On May 13 2011 16:42 Forumite wrote: I have to agree with VarpuliS post right before the night. Right now we´re going for sinani206, and then moving on to the others. Personally I don´t see how Ilovejonn and orgolove could both be Scum, but that´s for another day. Right now we take out sinani206. On May 15 2011 03:41 Mig wrote: But I am going to vote for sinani mainly because I think sinani still looks scummy from the previous day. I don't think much has changed for him and I am not completely sold on ilj's or orglove's guilt yet. On May 15 2011 08:58 jaminz wrote: I'm going to vote for sinani because of the close vote last time coupled with his erratic posting behavior.
Suspicious
+ Show Spoiler +On May 11 2011 14:01 Conversion wrote: Post behavior wise I can't really draw up a conclusion on Sinani and ilovejohn because they don't have any... substantial posts. It's suspicious at best. On May 12 2011 07:54 Impervious wrote: With the lynch of EM, we learn about ilj, and he seems to be more detrimental to the town than sinani. So he seems like the better lynch of the two right now, even though I`d like to see both gone tbh.
Good enough of a reason? On May 12 2011 09:43 Impervious wrote: Because we accomplish more through a lynch of EM than through a lynch of sinani (I mean, from our limited knowledge), I can't see why you would want to switch right now..... On May 12 2011 10:15 Mig wrote: But then as I looked through all his posts on TL to try and judge his reasoning ability I saw that hes only in 8th grade. I don't want to stereotype all 8th graders but his posting makes a lot of sense to me as an overwhelmed 8th grader. And its obvious that his posts are not being coached. With only 3 mafia left I figured the other 2 might try and help him post a bit better to survive, which clearly hasn't happened.
On May 12 2011 11:53 jaminz wrote: They're both suspicious, but my gut says Eternal is scummier than sinani. On May 13 2011 11:58 DropBear wrote: Please discuss! Sinani is also on the table too but I'm starting to think he isn't mafia now.
On May 13 2011 12:11 DropBear wrote: Remember that sinani206 is also in his first game. On May 13 2011 22:22 redtooth wrote: Seeing as we're not sold 100% on Sinani, might as well wait to see who gets killed and what they flip. On May 13 2011 22:31 Impervious wrote: As much as I'm starting to get a vibe that sinani is actually town (and that we have better choices for a lynch today), I really, really don't like how close the vote was. So I'm going to stick with it for the moment.
Conclusions: -I didn't realize how hard Varpulis had pushed for his lynch. He came out looking pretty good. I'm leaning towards 90% town for him.
-DropBear was real wish-washy. He was one of the first people to bring up sinani and pushed for his lynch day 3, but then he got cold feed on day 4. I'm also leaning town since this doesn't seem like a mafia reaction to me.
-Impervious and jaminz are my two remaining scum suspects at the moment. Impervious defended sinani pretty hard without providing any decent reasons besides we would get more information lynching someone else. jaminz doesn't even mention sinani day three or day four until its obvious he can't be saved near the end of the cycle.
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
I'm going with Impervious. He pushed for lynching EM day three by saying we would have "more to gain" by lynching him. He defends sinani without providing a reasonable explanation why. I think he is the best bet for today.
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On May 18 2011 08:27 Varpulis wrote: @kita I'm going to be bold and say that if impervious is scum, redtooth probably is too. Look at how hardcore impervious has been defending redtooth. If you think that impervious is scum, vote redtooth. if he flips scum, impervious is a great lynch tomorrow, and if redtooth flips town, we leave impervious alone.
A statement and its converse aren't logically equivalent. What makes you want to lynch redtooth first? Is no one willing to switch over to impervious? If my vote is going to be meaningless, I'll switch over, but I think I'll wait a bit longer.
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On May 17 2011 10:46 kitaman27 wrote:Show nested quote +On May 12 2011 07:54 Impervious wrote: With the lynch of EM, we learn about ilj, and he seems to be more detrimental to the town than sinani. So he seems like the better lynch of the two right now, even though I`d like to see both gone tbh.
Good enough of a reason? Show nested quote +On May 12 2011 09:43 Impervious wrote: Because we accomplish more through a lynch of EM than through a lynch of sinani (I mean, from our limited knowledge), I can't see why you would want to switch right now..... Show nested quote +On May 13 2011 22:31 Impervious wrote: As much as I'm starting to get a vibe that sinani is actually town (and that we have better choices for a lynch today), I really, really don't like how close the vote was. So I'm going to stick with it for the moment. Conclusions: -Impervious and jaminz are my two remaining scum suspects at the moment. Impervious defended sinani pretty hard without providing any decent reasons besides we would get more information lynching someone else.
On May 18 2011 09:04 Varpulis wrote: Unless you plan on pushing impervious's lynch, it would be better to put a vote on somebody who might actually be lynched today. If you want to post an analysis on Impervious, by all means do so.
This is what I posted earlier.
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
Careful Mig, if only you switch then it becomes 4-4 with orgolove. If you switch, we need someone else to switch too.
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
Redtooth's modkill might have actually been good for town since we were probably going to lynch him tomorrow anyways and that gives scum one less night kill to work with. I think we still have 3 more lynches to find one another scum so we're not in a totally awful position just yet. It's definitely going to be a lot easier if everyone doesn't lose interest though.
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
Won't be around a comp for more than 2 min until about 6 tonight. I'll post my thoughts then. I'll also probably rage at the lurkers who don't post, so here is your warning :p
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
I've been pushing for jaminz since nearly the beginning of the game when I first suspected him so that is where my vote will be. Compared to his games in newbie mafia and XXXVIII, he has been lurking and absolutely useless. He had that weird post after the killer death and had that real sketchy hammer vote on EM on day three.
@DropBear: Guess you will have to ask mafia why I'm not dead. Scum had a long list of confirmed towns to plow through, though I have to admit I was kinda surprised it wasn't me last night rather than varp.
@jonn: Why have you quit? The game is not over yet and we still have a decent chance to win. What gives?
@elmizzt: Your posts are usually pretty brief and I have a hard time getting a read off them. Could you post analysis of why you are voting orgolove?
@Mig: You've also been pretty quiet lately. Your play is fairly consistent to what it was in XXXVIII, but I would still like to see your thoughts.
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
DropBear do you plan on switching off AO before the end of the day? jaminz is obviously going to return to vote to save himself so this might come down to you. Who are you leaning towards at the moment?
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
Interesting, not even voting to save yourself? Hmm...
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On May 21 2011 10:30 jaminz wrote: Town players should be more worried about hunting scum than keeping themselves alive
Then where has your scum hunting been this entire game? :/
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