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Orgolove Can you explain the series of these three posts. They are in complete contradiction with each other. Care to explain why you thought redtooth was scum, town, and scum again in that order? I have not seen any convincing arguments either way from you for this chain of posts.
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On May 08 2011 07:10 sandroba wrote: I will post a long analysis on Amber[Light] tomorrow. I'm hoping he will adress some points I made about him. I'm VERY confident he is mafia. Irish is a wasted vote, unless he posts and votes before the deadline, as otherwise he will be modkilled.
I would really love to see your post in this regard as I am getting a null-tell or a weak scum-tell at most from his posting.
+ Show Spoiler +I would like to sugest we focus on Cthsazsa and Amber right now (and Irish if he begin posting again). Spliting the votes between multiple players is not good for town, and will give mafia an easy way out. If you believe one of these 2 players to be mafia vote for them instead of voting for someone else.
I am also lacking a confidence in your STRONGLY confident post. A few pages ago you had a strong theory that redtooth was scum which you discarded on the way to this post. Also, Cthsazsa was mentioned for the first time by you a few posts ago and you have given no rationale as to why you think he is scum. Even if you want to limit the discussion to 2-3 people to be lynched, why the sudden shift from redtooth to Cthsazsa? Why not focus on redtooth and Amber?
If you were confident that redtooth was scum, doesn't that imply Cthsazsa is town (since redtooth and Cthsazsa have voted for each other and argued strongly against each other)? So, why are we going after a townie then?
This clear disconnect is making me wary of your analysis. Are you afraid that redtooth flipping green this early will provide town a lot of information this early? It certainly seems like it as you have accused him too often in this thread but then backed off every time.
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On May 08 2011 08:01 sandroba wrote: No, I changed my mind about redtooth. His analysis on cthsazsa made me change my mind about him, and he's too fearless and outspoken of his opinions, so it's not very likely he is scum. His plan was misguided, and sometimes I misinterpret poor logic with scum behaviour. My main suspicion about redtooth was the fact that he was willing to lynch killerSOS (who hinted blue) day1 and he was stubborn about chaoser (which I have a town read on) being scum and providing weak reasoning. If you noticed, I asked for Amber[Light]'s opinion on Redtooth, and that also contributed to changing my mind. On the other hand, the analysis I will provide on Amber[Light] has nothing to do with poor logic. It will prove that the actions he has taken so far only make sense with a scum mentality. You shouldn't attack my analysis before I even post it, that makes me wary of you.
Amber said redtooth was possibly town. If Amber is scum (which you are now claiming), and redtooth is town, why would he defend redtooth? On top of that, if you think Amber is scum and he is defending redtooth, won't that make you even more suspicious of redtooth? In fact, the fact that Amber thinks redtooth might be town, should make you press even more for a lynch between red and him. Again, there seems a clear disconnect in your logic.
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On May 08 2011 08:27 chaoser wrote:Show nested quote +Amber said redtooth was possibly town. If Amber is scum (which you are now claiming), and redtooth is town, why would he defend redtooth? On top of that, if you think Amber is scum and he is defending redtooth, won't that make you even more suspicious of redtooth? Bussing happens all the time. It's not the motive that really gives it away so much as how someone goes about defending or attacking someone.
Again, it is not the idea of bussing. Of course, Amber can be bussing.
But, it is ludicrous to think that Sandroba listened to Amber's arguments, made the decision that Amber was bussing redtooth (someone he strongly suspects), and then changed his mind on redtooth's leaning (based on the fact the someone he suspects to be scum can be possibly bussing about someone else he suspects to be scum).
It is either the above that happened or it seems like a mafia slip-up.
I would have bought a newbie-slipup argument or fallacious logic argument if this was someone like Cthsazsa or KillerSoS posting. However, this comes from someone I know to be sharp enough as town from the game I played with him, and some-one who received high accolades for his play in the Sleeper Cell Mafia.
FoS: Sandroba
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On May 08 2011 08:44 chaoser wrote: Ok, we need to focus on a few people and not just point fingers at everyone cause then mafia can jsut blend in. At this point either write up an actual argument against someone if you're going to FoS them. What are you opinions on Amber, cthsazsa, and irish?
I am all for focusing on a few people but it is Sandroba who is bringing in new people everytime. He started the day with Irish and Redtooth, then ditched Irish along the way and focused on redtooth (he claimed a strong theory). Then, somewhere along the way due to mysterious happenings (no explanations provided), his suspicions of redtooth faded away and he started a campaign against Amber and cthsazsa. His campaign against cthsazsa is based on arguments of someone whom he has strongly suspected throughout the thread.
I am suspicious of cthsazsa since he has been band-wagoning on his votes without any solid arguments to go with it. The fact that Jackal tunneled him and aidnai listed him as the 2nd most suspicious person in his books and both of them died also adds to it. However, I still need to do a re-analysis of his postings to be confident.
As for Irish, regardless of his leaning, I am pegging a mod-kill on him today. If I had to guess, I would say if he turns up again before the end of the day, he is scum; if not he will flip green on mod-kill. Someone lurking for more than 72 hours after being accused by more than half the town is either a disinterested townie (in which he will not show up) or a noobscum.
Before I tell my opinion on Amber, I would like to hear Sandroba's arguments since he is the one insisting on voting on him. Also, it is interesting that you claim my FoS doesn't have an argument attached to it while yours against Amber amounts to similar content as mine against Sandroba.
You are using the argument that the reason Amber provided for voting for Kurumi is scummy. I find the logical disconnect behind Sandroba's sudden change in FoS and the consequent incoherent explanation a lot more scummy than your argument against Amber.
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@chaoser I find it amusing that you ask for my opinion on cthsazsa but have never posted one yourself.
On May 08 2011 03:44 sandroba wrote: @ilovejonn no I'm not saying that. I'm saying that cthsazsa was never in any danger of being lynched and kurumi's lynch was pretty much garanteed when he voted for him. If he wanted to avoid suspicion he would have placed his vote on cthsazsa instead. That's why I don't feel it's very likely he is mafia.
Also, the very argument you are making against lynching Beneather can be made for Amber. At the time Amber voted, Kurumi had 10 votes and the next target had 4 votes. Also, the town mood was dead set on lynching Kurumi. According to your argument itself, if Amber is scum, what purpose does it serve for him to vote for Kurumi and draw suspicion onto himself.
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I had this post ready last night but I was waiting on Sandroba's undeniable post before putting it out here in case he was as convincing as he was making it sound to be. Unfortunately, it failed to deliver like all his posts in this day cycle. Also, I am still waiting for him to answer the logical disconnect of after being against redtooth almost the entire game, having a sudden change of heart based on a post by Amber (against whom he is making a 'strong' case)
His change of heart statement and my issue with it + Show Spoiler +On May 08 2011 08:25 Eternalmisfit wrote:Show nested quote +On May 08 2011 08:01 sandroba wrote: No, I changed my mind about redtooth. His analysis on cthsazsa made me change my mind about him, and he's too fearless and outspoken of his opinions, so it's not very likely he is scum. His plan was misguided, and sometimes I misinterpret poor logic with scum behaviour. My main suspicion about redtooth was the fact that he was willing to lynch killerSOS (who hinted blue) day1 and he was stubborn about chaoser (which I have a town read on) being scum and providing weak reasoning. If you noticed, I asked for Amber[Light]'s opinion on Redtooth, and that also contributed to changing my mind. On the other hand, the analysis I will provide on Amber[Light] has nothing to do with poor logic. It will prove that the actions he has taken so far only make sense with a scum mentality. You shouldn't attack my analysis before I even post it, that makes me wary of you. Amber said redtooth was possibly town. If Amber is scum (which you are now claiming), and redtooth is town, why would he defend redtooth? On top of that, if you think Amber is scum and he is defending redtooth, won't that make you even more suspicious of redtooth? In fact, the fact that Amber thinks redtooth might be town, should make you press even more for a lynch between red and him. Again, there seems a clear disconnect in your logic.
His accusations against redtooth throughout the thread + Show Spoiler +Redtooth Holy shit, my whole team is exposing themselves like crazy. Time to chainsaw and discredit chaoser! I fail to see how this players you are calling obvtown are obvtown. Your logic is pretty fail: kurumi and irish_punk are so blatantly scum that they MUST NOT be scum so they MUST be town. If you keep following this logic doesn't this make them obvscum all over again? Then he picks Killer_SOS to focus on for day1 lynch. That's pretty dumb if you are town. That's all I have to say for now. @GGQ I would fully suport redtooth lynch. And yes, I'm saying Irish and Redtooth are scum. Alright I have a theory and I strongly believe RedTooth is mafia:
There were some people defending kurumi, but none of them came out so strong, to the point of calling him obvtown, except for red. In the same post he sugests we should change to killerSOS, who had hinted blue at that point. I feel if he was such a great analitical mind that could see that obviously kurumi wasn't scum, he would have noticed that killer could be blue, and advocating his lynch on day 1 was a dumb move, unless you are mafia. Then the post claiming not to know scum could pm amongst themselves. Again, if you are so experienced to the point of knowing kurumi was obvtown at that point, wouldn't you know that scum can exchange pm in this type of setup? It seems to me like a blatant atempt to look inocent. Then he goes ahead and makes that post that says town is sucking and says only himself, jackal and iadnai have defended kurumi. So tonight the kills were jackal and aidnai, none of which were defending kururmi with such certainty as himself. Those kills pretty much draw suspicion away from him. It looks too much like a plan. I don't see any reason for mafia having to snipe jackal and aidnai, based on their posting. That's the only purpose I can think of for them. He then posts his plan about organizing town. So I play along trying to find his true intentions behind it. If he was really trying to reduce spam and improve thread quality, he would be more flexible and make those a guideline, not a rule. I pressed him to change it and provided good reasoning and yet he refused to change his mind. As I've stated most likely only a few will follow those guidelines as they are presented, and that would slip town even more, and cause good analysis to be disregarded and random fos to be thrown around for a group of people. He then, states he's tired from arguing with chaoser (huh?) and goes away. I believe his plan was to split town all along.
Also, his exchange with Jackal just before the end of the night. It seems like Jackal was onto him.
+ Show Spoiler +On May 06 2011 23:31 Jackal58 wrote:Show nested quote +On May 06 2011 23:18 sandroba wrote: The list argument is pretty dumb. If I were mafia I would NEVER want to see kurumi dead. He was basically doing mafia's job for them. He was spaming the thread, creating a lot of confusion and posting a lot of nonsense. There is no way in hell you could know for sure kurumi was town unless you were mafia. My suspicions are on the people who came to his defensess for no reason, because he was "obvtown". Seriously, you guys must be on a whole other level, because calling kurumi obvtown is like calling a rape a beautiful act between two people in love. Give me a break. But as town you wanted him dead? But if you were scum you would never want him dead? But as town you did? But as scum you wouldn't? So since you voted for him you're obviously town right? Because obvscum would want him alive? But you have no problems with voting for obvtown? It's not rape. It's surprise sex. Enjoy it scummy.
It is clearly a defensive post trying drive attention away from himself. Sandroba, are you claiming that everyone who voted for Kurumi was town coz according to your argument no scum will vote for him. If yes, doesn't that invalidate your suspicion against Amber. If not, Why the pre-emptive defense on your name being included in a list? This seems quite scummy to me.
People tunneled Irish the whole of Day1 for being far less defensive but are completely ignoring this blatant over-reaction from someone who is being FoS along with a group of people.
+ Show Spoiler +On May 08 2011 02:18 sandroba wrote:Ok, I've changed my mind. I think we should save the redtooth discussion for another day and focus on the more obvious ones, like cthsazsa, irish and amber. Seriously Amber[Light], how hard is it to give an opinion on something instead of listing all the possible scenarios? Your posts are extremelly filled with fluff and very defensive. Your huge ass response for chaoser FoS was not needed at all. All I can read from your post is I'm a great scum hunter, you shouldn't kill me now because I'll have all scum on day 3. Also in this post:Show nested quote +On May 07 2011 07:48 Amber[LighT] wrote: Once day hits I'm going to post a bit more on the Kurumi aftermath. I just want everyone to be aware that we should not be in panic mode at this point. Mafia wants us to be fighting, trust me it's so easy when mafia can just sit back and relax while the town self-destructs. That lynch is going to compound over the next few days.
You seem pretty sure you are going to survive the night, don't you? FoS: Amber[Light]
Yeah, cthsazsa is a more obvious target. In fact, he is so much more obvious that you have never mentioned him in any of your posts till but yet choose discard redtooth from your suspicion list in his favor for no reason what-so-ever.
[Whenever you post you point out the possible scenarios instead of actually saying something relevant or useful. You refuse to take a stance on anythhing. You claimed chaoser was tunneling you when he first brought up his fos on you. You are over defensive. You are scum. After the great-over defensive reaction, you gave to a list including your name, you argue that someone is scum because he is over-defensive. Again, contradictory logic.
+ Show Spoiler +On May 08 2011 08:44 sandroba wrote: Amber never really defended anyone. He has been extremelly whish-washy. You can FoS me all you want but my analysis will be undeniable. That I promise.
Again, someone who has been wishy-washy throughout the day is FoSing someone for being wishy-washy. I await your undeniable analysis and it better be convincing. Till then, I am going to keep my vote on you.
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On May 08 2011 22:30 sandroba wrote: @Ethernalmisfit I won't bother arguing with you because you are clearly using Chainsaw defense. This is going to be my only post on the matter. If you trully beleive I'm scum go ahead and vote for me. I already stated my reasons for my change of heart regarding redtooh. Recently DropBear has had the same change of heart. Are you saying that we are all scum? Are you saying Redtooth is scum? Are you saying Amber is not scum? What are you saying?
I am not saying redtooth is scum or everyone else is scum. I am not even saying that Amber is not scum (just that I am getting a null-tell from him). I am saying that YOU are scum. The change of heart is not the reason I think you the scum. The scummy reason (and incoherent logic) behind it seems like a mafia slip-up. Also, combine that with your over-defensive behavior and subsequent FoS on you by Jackal. It seems so convenient that Jackal got hit by mafia after that and this post slipped under the radar.
+ Show Spoiler + The list argument is pretty dumb. If I were mafia I would NEVER want to see kurumi dead. He was basically doing mafia's job for them. He was spaming the thread, creating a lot of confusion and posting a lot of nonsense. There is no way in hell you could know for sure kurumi was town unless you were mafia. My suspicions are on the people who came to his defensess for no reason, because he was "obvtown". Seriously, you guys must be on a whole other level, because calling kurumi obvtown is like calling a rape a beautiful act between two people in love. Give me a break.
This post by itself has the biggest scum tell on you. I mean no one even did a FoS on you before this and you and go ahead and post this pre-emptive defense. Seems like someone panicked and slipped up.
Btw, I like your style. Trying to to make a me vs town scenario by posting 'Are you saying that we are all scum?' I never claimed anyone else was scum apart from you but you felt the necessity to relate yourself with the rest of the town so that it seems I am accusing others as well. More scummy posting.
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On May 08 2011 23:14 sandroba wrote: Do you agree that spreading our votes between many candidates is detrimental to the town? Do you think none of those proposed candidates are scum? For what reasons?
I do not believe spreading the votes between many candidates is good for town. But, I am sure as hell I do not want you or chaoser telling me which candidates should in the smaller voting pool. The last 2-3 pages, you (and chaoser as well) have been arguing to include their choice of candidates in that smaller list.
I think I stated before that both Cthsazsa is a possible scum read to me. I do not believe that Amber is scum based on his posting content but his lurking makes me suspicious. But, then again, if you were a vet like Amber and scum, and had a bandwagon getting formed against you, would you start lurking hard-core to draw even more attention on yourself?
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EDWOP: both Cthsazsa and Irish are
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On May 08 2011 23:32 Forumite wrote:Are what? Possible scum? Better lynches?
possible scum.
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On May 08 2011 23:51 sinani206 wrote: Lyter chaos13 kevconsim Takuna Beneather
This is the list of people that have not contributed to day 2. At least some of the scum must hide in the inactives. Kevconsim was a replacement for Rising_Phoneix, who did not even vote on day 1. Rising_Phoenix is an extreme case of inactivity, which is a scumtell. Kevconsim has inherited his role and is doing the same thing. This is VERY suspicious. As such, my vote is for kevconsim unless he starts posting some useful stuff and voting.
##Vote: kevconsim
Who do you think is scum, kev?
Please read the thread. Node said that kev had to withdraw since he had a family emergency.
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It is quite surprising that Chaoser keeps on coming in defense of Sandroba (when I was suspicious of Sandroba) and Sandroba is not defending Chaoser (when redtooth accused).
They have never posted any evidence that they know the other is pro-town but it always seems that they are too confident that the other one is on the same alignment as them.
@Sandroba Why do you think Chaoser is so pro-town that you are vehemently defending him? I mean when redtooth accuses Chaoser, you ask him to have a vote off between yourself and Amber and NOT Chaoser and Amber. It seems like you are more confident that Chaoser is town than yourself being town? Where does confidence come from?
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On May 09 2011 01:20 Eternalmisfit wrote: It is quite surprising that Chaoser keeps on coming in defense of Sandroba (when I was suspicious of Sandroba) and Sandroba is not defending Chaoser
I meant Sandroba is now defending Chaoser
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On May 09 2011 03:49 sandroba wrote: Also I'm not connected with chaoser in any sense except that I'm pretty confident he is town and we are both pushing for Amber[Light]'s lynch.
I have yet to see any analysis from you why you think chaoser is pro-town. This is possibly the third or the fourth time you have posted this statement yet every-time avoided conveniently avoided providing any explanation of it. Tell me, why do you think Chaoser is pro-town? What posts/arguments give you such a strong town read on him?
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On May 09 2011 04:30 chaoser wrote:Show nested quote +Cthsazsa (4) Conversion redtooth Varpulis ilovejonn
Amber[light] (3) chaoser sandroba chaos13 We've been talking about these two all day and I think it's fair to say that at the end of the day we get the most out of lynching one of these two. That being said, people should decide on whether to vote on one or the other. Voting all willy-nilly on people that no one else is focusing on (Beneather, Forumite, redtooth, and kevconism) isn't helping anyone and just allows mafia to randomly vote and not have to deal with the consequences.
Cthsazsa (4) Conversion redtooth VarpuliS ilovejonn
Amber[light] (3) chaoser sandroba chaos13
Sandroba (3) Eternalmisfit Amber[Light] DropBear
Again, Chaoser conveniently drops Sandroba off the list even though Amber and Sandroba have equal votes at this point (of which chaos13's vote seems as bandwagon-ish as it can be).
Having said that, despite my misgivings with Chaoser and Sandroba, I do agree that the vote is way too fragmented and with 10 people yet to vote, mafia can easily make last minute votes to influence the lynch. I would agree with focusing on these three in my opinion.
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On May 09 2011 04:44 chaoser wrote:Show nested quote +Again, Chaoser conveniently drops Sandroba off the list even though Amber and Sandroba have equal votes at this point (of which chaos13's vote seems as bandwagon-ish as it can be). Because sandroba is probably the most pro-townie player I've seen in this game. I hosted Sleeper Cell Mafia and so I've seen his scum play. He knew Ace and Jackal were mafia from day 1 and so it's a decent read on his scum play and his play in this game is not at all like his play in that game.
I think this debate is going in circles. I have a weak suspicion on you and a strong scum-read on Sandroba. You and Sandroba both seem to have a strong scum read on Amber. Given this, in the decision on who to include and who not to include in the smaller focus set, both you and me will be biased. I would prefer to have Cthasazsa and Sandroba and you would prefer to have Cthazazsa and Amber.
Given this situation, would you trust me to make the decision of a smaller focus set alone? I bet not. And that the exact same reason I cannot trust you make the decision of deciding who should be included in the smaller focus set.
I am not sure of your leanings and have not seen any strong analysis showing why you have a strong town read on Sandroba. If you can convince me with such an analysis, I would gladly concede on having Sandroba removed from the focus set. But until then, since enough people are suspicious of both Amber and Sandroba, I would recommend having both of them and Cthazazsa in there.
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On May 09 2011 05:19 chaoser wrote:Show nested quote +On May 09 2011 05:06 Eternalmisfit wrote:On May 09 2011 04:44 chaoser wrote:Again, Chaoser conveniently drops Sandroba off the list even though Amber and Sandroba have equal votes at this point (of which chaos13's vote seems as bandwagon-ish as it can be). Because sandroba is probably the most pro-townie player I've seen in this game. I hosted Sleeper Cell Mafia and so I've seen his scum play. He knew Ace and Jackal were mafia from day 1 and so it's a decent read on his scum play and his play in this game is not at all like his play in that game. I think this debate is going in circles. I have a weak suspicion on you and a strong scum-read on Sandroba. You and Sandroba both seem to have a strong scum read on Amber. Given this, in the decision on who to include and who not to include in the smaller focus set, both you and me will be biased. I would prefer to have Cthasazsa and Sandroba and you would prefer to have Cthazazsa and Amber. Given this situation, would you trust me to make the decision of a smaller focus set alone? I bet not. And that the exact same reason I cannot trust you make the decision of deciding who should be included in the smaller focus set. I am not sure of your leanings and have not seen any strong analysis showing why you have a strong town read on Sandroba. If you can convince me with such an analysis, I would gladly concede on having Sandroba removed from the focus set. But until then, since enough people are suspicious of both Amber and Sandroba, I would recommend having both of them and Cthazazsa in there. Here's a question then, why would two mafia, since you have a weak scum read on me and a strong read on Sandroba, try their ass off to get Amber out of all people lynched. He has no useful posts (if you're going to compare his posts to sandroba, you'll see that sandroba is at least contributing and giving opinions on matters. Amber has been pretty much saying the same thing everyone else is saying, copying ideas from everyone else who has written about sandroba.) If we were mafia you think we'd BOTH stick our necks out to get AMBER out of all people lynched? It wasn't even like the Amber situation only came up after sandroba situation came up to draw pressure off amber, it happened the other way around.
Let me recap the events of last night. You started off with a FoS on Amber which was followed by Sandroba's rather quick jump from redtooth onto Amber. At the point where I first pointed Sandroba seemed suspicious, a bandwagon seemed to be forming against Amber. Several others started stating Amber seemed a little scummy without backing it up with any analysis.
If I had not raised my suspicions on Sandroba, a similar bandwagon to the one on Kurumi would have formed on Amber. Even if Amber flipped green/blue after a lynch, it would be hard to pinpoint any scum strongly since a large number of townies would have been mixed in with the scum (like what happened with Kurumi). At this point, even if the lynch of Amber goes ahead and he flips town, it will be quite clear who all are suspicious.
As to why Mafia would want Amber dead, I (and also several others in this thread) have got a potential blue read from Amber. Getting a blue lynched would be a big victory for scum at this point since town already lost 2 blues on Night1.
As for my case against Sandroba, I have stated it before and do not see the necessity of restating it again.
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We are 9-8 for Cthsasza
We are missing 4 votes: Rising_Phoenix, Takuna, Irish_Punk13, and Beneather.
I am right now debating where to place the vote between Amber and Cthsasza. Frankly, unless the town wants me to essentially pick someone between the two, I would prefer to keep my vote on Sandroba. However, here are my thoughts regarding the two of them
Amber I am not fully convinced that he is scum from his posts per se. The only red flag is his generic inactivity. However, his flip will provide the town a lot of information. Based on his flip, at the very least, we can be sure whose analysis is worthwhile and who all are either noobtown/scum. At the same time, I don't feel too good about lynching for information.
Cthsasza He has shown some scummy behavior. Most of his posts/analysis doesn't contribute anything and are there for the sake of posting. Also, he has been quite defensive to accusations. However, his flip won't provide much useful information and quite possibly the next day will again delve into Amber discussion all over again.
If the town strongly wants me to vote for someone between these two, I would vote for Cthsasza.
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That makes no sense at all. You acknowledge the fact that your going to get more out of lynching Amber and that he's the better vote. Yet you're still voting for that other guy?
Note that I said if I had to choose between the two. I still prefer voting for Sandroba who I believe is scum. But, since no one is in agreement with me, pursuing that will go nowhere.
@chaoser I do not think voting for information is the best course of action.
Also, if you are so confident that Amber is scum, why are you not pursuing the vigi hit that at Amber esp. in light of the fact that you don't have any reservations using the hit later in a pointless bet between you and redtooth.
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