Do we have to get one tmoro or lose?
TL Mafia XXXIX - Page 10
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DropBear
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Do we have to get one tmoro or lose? | ||
DropBear
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ENOUGH IS ENOUGH Impervious, Jaminz and now AO have died because they wouldn't defend themselves. Tomorrow everyone better be fucking talking. This close to the end of the game you have no excuses anymore. Time to stand up boys. | ||
DropBear
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The only thing I can see wrong with this, why did he vote for Irish_Punk13 on Day 1? This could have been an attempt to buy early cred when there was no way he was getting lynched, or it could have been that he just got it right. | ||
DropBear
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On May 28 2011 15:50 Mig wrote: But the main point people should consider is just the lack of effort kita has put into his arguments. You played in XXXVIII with me and kita db. When kita had a read on a situation in that game he fought for what he thought was right. He was actively working to get people he thought were scum lynched. This game how often have you seen kita actually fight to get who he thinks is the scummiest person lynched? He just posts his opinion then sits out and lets the town debate amongst themselves. Which is the perfect strategy for mafia since we have just been lynching townies. I agree, he's completely different. The fact that he is still alive this late in the game despite being EASILY the biggest threat to Mafia if town is ridiculous too. He pretty much single-handedly destroyed our Mafia team last game. The other factor to consider is that he is in PYP Insane, but he's shown he can be active. I sure as hell trust you more than any of the other remaining players. I will join with you good sir! | ||
DropBear
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Should we talk about who we think the other one is or leave that until tomorrow? | ||
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On May 27 2011 00:36 kitaman27 wrote: Ya, elmizzt has been somewhat suspicious, but I wouldn't consider him for lynch until at least the next day cycle. AO and ilovejonn have been pretty silent. Mig, you haven't posted since the night cycle, have your opinions changed either way? I'm voting for ilovejonn for now, subject to change. They voted together yesterday incidentally. | ||
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On May 28 2011 10:37 kitaman27 wrote: Sigh I feel so old, I can't even stay up until 11 anymore now that I have started working -_- I'm thinking ilovejonn and elmizzt are the two remaining scum. If I don't survive the night, good luck town! | ||
DropBear
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The fact that he's fingering elmizzt. But then again at this late point in the game it would be hard NOT to get one out of two. Alright fuck it Let's do this! | ||
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On May 28 2011 16:36 Mig wrote: Well assuming kita is mafia then if he gets the town to mislynch this game mafia win. So if he is confident he could convince us to lynch ilj then he can easily say elmizzit is suspicious without fear. Also in a way that protects him in case we do lynch elmizzit. If we did then he can say see I told you him and ilj are the last 2 to try and get us to lynch ilj with 3 left. For mafia to win they just need town to mislynch 1 time. They only need 1 of them to survive so no need for them to protect each other now. Alright done. Let's kill these motherfuckers. | ||
DropBear
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On May 28 2011 17:36 elmizzt wrote: The remaining mafia are kita and dropbear. First off, i've been wanting to look away from ilj for a while. It's far too quiet for the last couple days for the AO/ilj train to be true. A sign that scum is happy with the way the situation is, and feels zero pressure to intervene. Luckily the AO lynch stirred things up a bit. Since it looks like with my vote on kita, we have a confirmed lynch for him, I won't discuss him as much, but mig's analysis of him is pretty good. However, Dropbear, seeing the game so close to a mafia victory, has gotten ridiculously sloppy. At this point, the scum strat is to bus kita for the cred for that 1 vital mislynch. Kita is pretty much dead after mig's post, and the zero resistance he or anyone put up. First, dropbear puts up a token defense of kita, really just milks it. Mig smashes it, as DB had expected. DB then builds rapport with an obvious townie, Mig: More sucking up to build trust. He gives validation to Mig's suspicions by saying he was "going to say elmizzt as well". I'd bet that if Mig had said he wanted to shoot ilj, DB's post would read " ya, I was going to say ilj as well" : The rest of his posts are just more pushing for Mig to solidify his suspicions. DB is waaay too overenthusiastic to just get it done. At this point in the game, where one mislynch spells the end of the game, rushing headlong into a lynch is not the best townie play. DB's whole attitude basically reads to me like scum smelling blood and getting overzealous. Lol. That first post wasn't a defence. It was clarifying something I didn't understand. Smelling blood? How does a scum person get really excited when they kill their own teammate? Plus look at my posts. I've been overexcited the entire game, not just about killing kita. I posted a scum team with 7 people on it in day 1 lol. I've been saying I trusted Mig for the last several days. I also posted a big analysis of you yesterday mate. You wanted to look away from ilovejonn? Why? | ||
DropBear
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On May 28 2011 18:49 elmizzt wrote: 1. It completely was a defense. You questioned kita's actions as not mafia-like. Of course, it was extremely weak and obvious, but that was your intention. You just needed a quick post of any content to bus him with. 2. You get excited when you kill your own teammate because it gives you the necessary town-cred to influence the next game-winning lynch. 3. It was more than just the overexcitement. This is different. You're pushing hard to close the book on kita in order to gain the aforementioned town cred. 4. Nice. I trust mig too. 5. I already stated why I wanted to look away from ilj. In case it wasn't clear, the quietness when the focus was on ilj/ao speaks to mafia feeling comfortable enough that they have no need to intervene to influence town opinions. Therefore, it would follow that ilj looks towny. 1. I pointed out in the very same post you call a defence why it could be dodgy. 2 + 3. So what if I've been excited about killing kita? I've been excited the entire game lol. There have been many many times this game where I've been excited. So what? It's what I do. I made this after 2 months at TL. I made my first LR thread after only a couple of weeks and less than 100 posts. 4. Your trust for Mig has appeared today, on the last possible day. You haven't even mentioned Mig in a single one of your posts up until this point in the game.. Yet now he is an obvious townie? 5. On May 26 2011 08:10 elmizzt wrote: I spent about 2 hours last night poring over both their respective post histories, and I have no idea which I would prefer to lynch. Theyre both pretty equally scummy imo, and it doesn't help that their vote patterns are nearly identical. =/ I am probably just terrible at analysis I suppose based on forumite's semi-vouch for AO, I'd say ilj would be a better target for tonight. This post was yesterday. You've been wanting to bring things away for a while? Why didn't you? | ||
DropBear
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I made this after 2 months at TL, not the post on page 88 | ||
DropBear
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It's roleclaim time gents, even though everyone is probably going to say townie lol. I am Vanilla Townie. KITAMAN27 Self defence Part 1. On May 28 2011 22:54 kitaman27 wrote: This is untrue. I specifically remember asking in the thread "Is nobody going to switch over to impervious?" I then proceeded to repost my analysis of him. As for recent discussion, orgo and AO were dt checks. I'm not going to argue against dt checks. Conveniently, the town is pushing aside my attempt to point out AO's dt check and save him. Why would I try to give a townie a confirmed status when there are only 8 people remaining in the game? You were indeed quite specific about asking others to switch. Mig is incorrect here. On May 18 2011 11:31 kitaman27 wrote: Careful Mig, if only you switch then it becomes 4-4 with orgolove. If you switch, we need someone else to switch too. The only thing you say here that I take issue with is this: Is this what you mean by your Impervious analysis? You based the entire thing off 3 posts defending sinani. You didn't look at anything else he did really. Self defence part 2 Your defence of AO was pretty weak mate. You didn't really try that hard to convince us. On May 25 2011 11:50 kitaman27 wrote: Meh close enough to 11. This post makes me think he may have gotten checked. Back to sleep. On May 26 2011 07:59 kitaman27 wrote: Perhaps. though usually a dt will go out of their way with a red check, but only hint in the thread with a green check. There is also the 1/7 chance he is the godfather to consider, which would invalidate the check. I would be interested in hearing from elmizzit in particular about who he would rather see lynched today, elmizzit or ilovejonn. These are the only two things I can find. They aren't exactly convincing. I would also like you to explain the timing of your ilovejonn/jaminz analysis on Day 3, which you never answered Mig about. It came just as EM and sinani had become the major candidates, with sinani tying ilovejonn. | ||
DropBear
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At this point as far as I'm concerned it's either kitaman27/elmizzt ilovejonn/elmizzt | ||
DropBear
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Shoot! | ||
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You didn't vote until later on, once the only realistic candidates were EM and sinani. | ||
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On May 29 2011 14:04 Mig wrote: Ok first question I have is are you going to be online close to when the lynch happens tomorrow? Doesn't have to be super close but within a couple hours should be fine. 2nd if we assume that me and you are town then either ilj/kita is the 3rd town that means ilj/kita will vote for each other and the 2 of us must vote for the same person for town to win. So my question is if ilj either doesn't defend himself or I don't like his defense will you be willing to switch to him if I want to? Like even if you are leaning that kita is mafia would you switch if I wanted to? I know this question is hard to answer before we hear from ilj but it is important to my strategy tomorrow to know the answer to this. I'm 12 hours ahead of EST so 11pm is 11am for me. I'll be having an early night tonight to be up in time Um what? Kita hasn't even voted yet. He's waiting for others to make the first move, as he's done all game. We do have to vote together, yes. I trust you completely relative to the other three. I'm not just going to jump when you whistle though, you have to convince me we are making the right decision. | ||
DropBear
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On May 29 2011 14:10 kitaman27 wrote: Like I said before, I voted later on when it was 7-5, making the lynch competitive again. If I were on the other side, then it would have been 8-4 and clearly out of reach. You posted analysis on someone else during day three that wasn't sinani or EM, but that doesn't necessarily make you scummy. Also let me remind you of this post when you started to question sinani being scum. K, what's your point? Why are you reminding me of this exactly? It came the next day. | ||
DropBear
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On May 29 2011 14:15 kitaman27 wrote: The fact that I was trying to prevent a redirection of the sinani lynch rather than trying to save him. What are your thoughts about my analysis on jonn and elm? At this point pretty much everyone was trying to get sinani lynched (everyone still alive except me lol) it doesn't make you special at all. Elmizzt is dodgy as shit and I agree with all of it. Regardless of whether you or ilj are mafia he definitely is. There is of course the distinct possibility that he is bussing you to try and win on the last day. Ilovejonn, well it's either him or you. His voting history is atrocious and he hasn't helped much at all. I've found him suss since Day 1. On the other hand, I did a look through his history when I was preparing for XXXVIII and I found that he came under extreme suspicion pretty much single game and was never Mafia. Chaoser also decided to clear him. Orgolove indicted him and his top 4 had 2 confirmed townies on it plus me so I consider that an argument against. He has also been under intense pressure all game, I'd play poorly too if under the hammer every single time I post it would be stressful. | ||
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