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On April 26 2011 21:09 Jackal58 wrote: Apparently everybody has gone to sleep. I was thinking the same thing. I went to sleep, came back, and there were 0 new posts..... Granted I only got 6 hrs of sleep, but yea.....
Of course, I didn't have anything to contribute, and I still don't really, so I wasn't planning on posting anything.....
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Ok, between this "secret plan", this recent slipup, and defending someone who is currently suspicious, is anyone else getting a weird vibe from Ace?
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On April 27 2011 02:40 Ace wrote:Show nested quote +On April 27 2011 02:37 Impervious wrote: Ok, between this "secret plan", this recent slipup, and defending someone who is currently suspicious, is anyone else getting a weird vibe from Ace? what is he suspicious of? Saying he might role claim? That isn't a suspicious action at all. You guys are looking for things that aren't there. If someone says hey I have a pretty good role/strange role/interesting role and I might claim then show me how that is scummy behavior. Well, unless we get some kind of confirmation that there are indeed roles not listed in the OP that are in play, his actions are definitely suspicious. Nobody in either of the two blue roles would even dream of bringing that much attention to themselves at this point in the game.
Also, I await the revealing of your plan.
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On April 27 2011 02:43 tnkted wrote:Show nested quote +On April 27 2011 02:23 Zorkmid wrote:On April 27 2011 02:20 darmousseh wrote:On April 27 2011 02:13 Zorkmid wrote: EBWOP: Another thought Maybe Tkdted is seeking the protection of a possible medic role? It's pretty obvious what he is, but apparently calling out people when they make themselves too obvious to the mafia is frowned upon. People need to stop making so many tells, seriously. Not obvious to me. I think that the only roles that qualify as "weird" by definition would be the ones unspecified in the OP. It's not specified in the OP. Now can we please stop talking about this? I'll claim day2 if you people are seriously so freaked out. Yes, we're freaked out over it. Especially since I'm not aware of any non-listed roles at the moment. And that's not a good thing, because its also possible that the Reds have unlisted roles/abilities as well..... So I'd like to find out one way or another.And yes, zork, it should be extremely obvious what I am and why I'm acting this way. NO MORE CLUES. You guys are spelling my name wrong btw, its TNK not TDK lol. Now, as for my vote: it's ImperviousHe's had almost nothing but one liners. Show nested quote +On April 26 2011 08:19 Impervious wrote:On April 26 2011 08:14 Kenpachi wrote: oh ya. do you guys think its funny how Mafia may vote the most protown role to kill which may force Sleeper Cell People to not contribute as much? It's not funny, its smart play by them. Show nested quote +On April 26 2011 07:55 Impervious wrote: I thought pretty hard about how I'd play each of the positions before the game actually started..... Show nested quote +On April 26 2011 08:17 Impervious wrote:On April 26 2011 08:06 Ace wrote: Happy Birthday Wiggles.
Impervious can you list your 3 players? I did. On April 25 2011 22:46 Impervious wrote:On April 25 2011 22:39 GMarshal wrote: I like that question, I'll take the first shot at answering it.
Now, I'm assuming one person is receiving the message.
1.) Ace- "I'm the pardoner from XXXVIII": with a veteran player like Ace I would be trying to get as much information to him as possible, information is power and even with only a little bit of it I'm sure he could get stuff done
2.) Mr. Wiggles - " mafia will post 'serial killer' " or some other breadcrumb that would allow me to reveal myself to him and then the rest of the team. I might think of a more clever breadcrumb than that, and if it were clever enough I might use it for ace instead.
3.) why- same as for wiggles, as a veteran player both of them are people I could count on to work it into their regular posts without worrying too much about them messing up. Nothing against you, but I haven't played or checked out a game where why has played. I would have put you in the 3rd spot. Show nested quote +On April 26 2011 07:48 Impervious wrote: Oh, and I can think of a way of letting them know who the GF at the same time..... Show nested quote +On April 26 2011 07:45 Impervious wrote:On April 26 2011 05:36 GMarshal wrote: God dammit, I figured out what sand was getting at. He is right, it can be done, the whole mafia team can be informed of who the other members are, in my method they won't find out who the GF is but they *will* know who the entire team is. I *think* its doable in five words too, assuming the team consists of five members or less.
Assume that by night 3 the whole mafia team will be aware of the other members are.
Time to work on lynching people I guess. Mr.Wiggles, have you figured out why my vote is on you yet? It is doable in 5 words..... Regardless of how many members are on the team..... Oneliners. Every time. Then he has this gem, reiterating an excuse already given by several people for inactivity: Yes, because oneliners are definitely a scumtell.....Show nested quote +On April 26 2011 09:33 Impervious wrote: I don't see any real info yet either.....
Btw, in case you guys are watching how people behave/how often they post - I have an exam on Wednesday, and I'm in the middle of moving from one place to another, so my posting may be erratic, without actually being caused by any game changing information that I may come across..... Several other people had brought this excuse up already. Wiggles, for example. Trying to blend in? Isnt it better to claim this shit ahead of time, rather than claim it after the fact? Or would you rather discover my behavior changes after a couple of days, and then I claim both the move and the exams as excuses for it?
If it would have been better to claim it after the fact, then I guess I'll do that next time I play a game of Mafia.Then we get an actual post of substance: Show nested quote +On April 25 2011 22:38 Impervious wrote: Guys, this talk about breadcrumbing is nice and all, but I don't see it going much further at the moment. We should probably wait a while before bringing this up, so we can catch a slip up. Especially if they are trying to hide their posting in the thread.
I think we should talk about the pros and cons of of double-checking anyone who gets the result of "insufficient analysis", to make it easier on the DT.
The pros of double checking are that you are more sure of the result. The cons are that you could be checking someone else instead, therefore checking more people. I really think the cons outweigh the pros in this case.
Thoughts? Now, I agree with not focusing on breadcrumbing this game, because its almost impossible for us to catch scum at it. But this post talks about doublechecking people. Now this isn't a scumtell in and of itself, but what is interesting is that he steals the entire content of his post from two other players: I thought both were important things to do.
If we're going to try to outsmart the people with red roles, then we need to catch them before their plan (whatever it is) is fully formed..... By giving away the methods we'd expect them to use, they'll know what to avoid doing..... Frankly, it was really dumb to go so in-depth on that subject.
And making sure the DT knows what he should be doing is always going to be a good thing. I'm not sure if what you initially said was a major blunder, and you're simply trying to cover it up, or if you genuinely have a non-disclosed role. Part of me wants to actually lynch you tonight, to confirm it either way (seeing as you'll probably be a top target for the mafia). Of course, this could bite us in the ass if you really do have a useful role for the town. And I don't want to waste a check on you to find out either way.First, Sandroba saying "talking breadcrumbs is a waste of time." Show nested quote +On April 25 2011 21:41 sandroba wrote: I think this discussion about breadcrumbs is not productive at all, specially if you reveal your strategy before you put it in practice. Doing what you are suggesting is going to make scumhunting more difficult imo. Also I don't think that's the way mafia is going to identify each other, as there are several other more obvious ways I can think of. Then vain suggesting doublechecks. Show nested quote +On April 25 2011 11:41 Vain wrote:On April 25 2011 11:38 Jackal58 wrote: Well Gman. Since it appears that only you and I are playing and I know what I am huge fos on you. In other words I'm going to bed. Hey, i'm still here too. Am going to bed now BECAUSE ITS 5 AM HERE btw, maby dt's should double check if they get that not info sufficient thingy if they have enough time and the player looks trusted. oh well, we'll see how it plays out. Goodnight! Convinced? I am, at least enough for a day1 lynch. #vote Impervious If that's what it takes to convince you, we're going to have serious problems later on in the game.....
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On April 27 2011 03:01 Ace wrote:Show nested quote +On April 27 2011 02:55 Impervious wrote:On April 27 2011 02:40 Ace wrote:On April 27 2011 02:37 Impervious wrote: Ok, between this "secret plan", this recent slipup, and defending someone who is currently suspicious, is anyone else getting a weird vibe from Ace? what is he suspicious of? Saying he might role claim? That isn't a suspicious action at all. You guys are looking for things that aren't there. If someone says hey I have a pretty good role/strange role/interesting role and I might claim then show me how that is scummy behavior. Well, unless we get some kind of confirmation that there are indeed roles not listed in the OP that are in play, his actions are definitely suspicious. Nobody in either of the two blue roles would even dream of bringing that much attention to themselves at this point in the game. Also, I await the revealing of your plan. Show nested quote +On April 08 2011 14:51 iGrok wrote: [center]ROLES
This is a semi-closed setup. Some Roles and their abilities will be disclosed, however role counts will not be. There is at least one of every Roles below. There may be other Roles not listed.
The OP makes it quite clear that the possibility exists. Still waiting on more people to post. Really need more activity before I reveal my plan. And if he had one such role, I can't think of any role that would be worthwhile revealing so early in the game, unless it was immune to night kills.....
Drawing attention to yourself? Maybe. Actually wanting to reveal? Nope.
Also, how often to mafia games have 100% activity? There always seem to be a few who lurk a little too much.....
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On April 27 2011 03:17 Zorkmid wrote: Strategy to make the DTs waste checks on you perhaps? Not exactly a town friendly move, is it?
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I'm not sure what to make of it, but it is pretty unusual play by him.
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On April 27 2011 10:56 Zorkmid wrote:I think there's another thread you need to vote in. Already done. over 10 minutes ago.
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On April 27 2011 11:52 Jackal58 wrote: First Impervious isn't new.
I'm flattered that you would stand up for me here.
While this is far from my first game of mafia, this is only my 3rd game on TL. Thanks for standing up for me, although I'm sure you're still a little buthurt from the results of the Superbowl.
<3 GB Packers!
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On April 27 2011 22:49 GMarshal wrote: I realize its night time, but that is no reason to shut up and stop discussion, we have all of twenty four hours to start deciding things like lynches and blue direction. For the sake of discussion I am going to post a list of people I think need DT checks, vigi shots and medic protects.
DT Checks
Jackal58 - Ace thinks Jackal has been acting scummy, for this reason alone I think a dt should take a look at jackal, the results would be interesting either way
Mr. Wiggles - I already pointed out that I am suspicious of him, it would be nice to know definitely, as I know wiggles has the potential to contribute to the town if he is town aligned, if he is not he is very good about scooting along with large vacuous posts
GMarshal - DTs should aways check the most vocal players. I consider myself a vocal player, therefore I should be checked
Ace - its Ace, as policy he should be checked. Also I find his retraction of the vote on jackal to be unexpected, from seeing previous games with Ace I would have expected him to stick to his guns with the lynch.
Impervious- he has many posts, yet oddly enough, not a single one of them stuck in my mind, to me this means his posts have been empty enough to not be memorable, I think that merits a check
Vigilante Shots - now its *really* debated whether it is best for vigilantes to shoot night one or not, if the vigi is not in imminent danger and is not confident on his mafia kill I belive in saving the shot for later, however some people subscribe to using it for people they would lynch on policy, e.g. liars, or lurkers. If a vigi *had* to fire tonight I would think the best shot would be at an inactive who might be lurking scum. That is the gist of my suggestions on here
Eiii- Lurking, pops up to defend himself, resumes lurking, not a town asset at the moment, so we can do without him
GGQ- more of the same deal with Eiii, lurking inactively, hasn't really weighed in on anything.
why- with a grand total of four posts all he has done is attack jackal, I dont think he is contributing and we can do without him
Vain- I see every one of his posts as either a rehash of old ideas or a non-contribution
darm- because I think it would be hilarious to have him die day one this game too (don't actually shoot him for that, it was a joke...)
Medic Protects
GMarshal- I dont want to die, please dont let me die, I'll go through mafia withdrawal again and it wont be pretty
Ace- he is Ace, high profile target and all that, I want him around in the late game.
Jackal (maybe) - he is a great endgame player, and I wouldn't mind having him around to scum-hunt in the late game, I don't know how likely it is he will be targeted though.
other than that I don't know who scum might go after to be honest, as they risk hitting one of their own whatever they choose to do
Alright, so take a gander and debate my list up and down, who did I forget to include ? Who did I include who shouldn't be there?
I guess we're going to use traditional mafia lingo in this game.....
For the DT checks, I'd also want to know about Ace. He is a great player, which is why I'd want to be sure he's on my side. He's also acting a little weird, and I'm not sure what to make of it at the moment. He would be my check tonight, for sure, unless something happens between now and the end of the night.
I'm also confused about why. From what I've seen in the thread, he's held in somewhat high regard (this is my first time playing with him, and I haven't observed a game where he played either, so I don't know myself). With having few posts, and generally unconstructive posting (I know most of mine are also pretty useless, but I've got a lot of them, so I'll eventually write something useful, much like how a room full of monkeys with typewriters will eventually come up with the entire work of Shakespeare), it seems like it would be pretty uncharacteristic of an experienced player.
I dont think the vigi is in danger yet..... The chance of getting hit tonight/lyched tomorrow is pretty low, and it will probably be far more useful to have the kill around for later. Also, while there are players we can do without, I really think it would be better to lynch them rather than waste a vigi kill on. So I'd agree, unless the Vigi has a really good lead on one of the members of the mafia, it would be better to save the hit for later.
Also, while it would be nice to have a medic on our side (among other roles, such as a veteran), we don't know for sure. It would be better to assume that we don't. We're going to need to assume that we'll lose someone tonight, and at this point, it seems to be pretty unlikely that the mafia will force a kill on one of their own.
Another thing to worry about - the mafia just lost a member. Unless Rean was the first person contacted by the GF (which I find very unlikely, although it is possible that the GF made that big of a mistake), then there are probably only 2 more people who have to be contacted..... Which means the mafia should know who each other are. While it's not as useful as being able to discuss at night, like most mafia games, it will help them tremendously. We have to assume that for tomorrow night, they'll be able to be somewhat coordinated.....
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On April 29 2011 00:45 GGQ wrote: The simple fact that Ace didn't die is suspicious enough. Actually, as much as I think Ace is definitely a candidate for a lynch, this is a very bad reason for it. Out of the obvious top 4 players that the mafia would want to eliminate, 1 of them is gone. This does not automatically mean that the other 3 are suspicious.....
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Statistically, it's a far better choice to lynch anyone who got "insufficient analysis" than to try to check them again.
I say we go for it. Right now. Maybe get Ace tomorrow?
Although, bum, I don't like how you're already revealing yourself..... I don't think you were in any danger yet, so it seems unnecessary at this point.
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Oops, I'll forget I saw that.
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Ok, for those of you who are skeptical of bum, what do you think about lynching him to prove it, to satisfy your curiosity?
If he really is the DT, his list and reasoning seems pretty solid, and I haven't seen any better ideas.....
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Guys, if bum is in fact the analyst, while there is only a ~25% chance that he's actually the cell leader, there is a ~50% chance of getting a red. That is a pretty damn good chance at the moment.
While it is stupid (imo) that bum claimed already, if he is the DT, he'll be a high priority target for the mafia, so they'll take him out at night.
I don't see the reasoning for a red claiming as DT. It seems like such a dumb move. It instantly paints a giant target on them when he's still alive the next day. And if the mafia don't eliminate him tonight, then they risk him actually finding a mafia (assuming that Jackal is green).
And, of course, if he's green, it could be an interesting play, if you really had a strong read on someone.
I don't think it's a good idea to lynch him. Voting for someone other than Jackal, based on some kind of analysis, would be fine if you don't believe bum, but lynching him is really fucking dumb right now.
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On April 30 2011 09:50 VarpuliS wrote:Show nested quote +On April 30 2011 09:42 Ace wrote: How did you come to the conclusion there is a 50% chance of getting red? Somebody posted that statistic a while ago. People need to stop using statistics is evidence. They can only get us so far. Analytical reasoning > statistical reasoning in a game of mafia, imo. Agreed, but it shouldn't be discounted so easily either.
As for how that is roughly 50%:
There are currently 13 players left. Assumption is that there are 3 mafia and 1 GF left.
Chance of mafia coming up with "Insufficient Analysis"
3 (number of normal mafia) * 0.25 (chance of then having the result of Insufficient Analysis) * 1/12 (chance of the DT checking any individual)
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1 (GF) * 1.00 (chance of having the result of Insufficient Analysis) * 1/12
= 14.6% (through absolutely random checking).
Chances of a townie coming up with "Insufficient Analysis"
8 (number of non-DT townies left) * 0.25 (chance of having the result of Insufficient Analysis) * 1/12 (chance of the DT checking any individual)
= 16.7% (also through absolutely random checking).
Therefore there is a ~47% chance of Jackal being red, assuming bum is really the DT.
So, the real question is whether you believe bum or not. Given the situation, a ~50% chance is pretty damn good.
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