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On April 19 2011 14:03 DoctorHelvetica wrote:Show nested quote +On April 18 2011 15:22 Barundar wrote:On April 18 2011 14:24 DoctorHelvetica wrote: so should we kill barundar then
2 roleblockers? Unless there was a mistake from the hosts. Im not stupid enough to fakeclaim roleblock and trade myself 1 for 1. If there was a host mistake I hope they own up to it. I see no reason not to lynch you. Already asked. There was no mistake. 2 roleblockers.
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So AO, if you DT checked jaminz, time to claim.
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Did you get any checks off tonight kita?
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Doubt you will get an answer on that. I only asked if there had been any mistakes with roleblock notifications yesterday.
I voted DropBear, bum you might as well claim since kita outted you.
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Guess we can let them both explain themselves first.
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On April 19 2011 23:22 kitaman27 wrote: DropBear is indeed lying. The person I watched was not hit. Thus, it is impossible for the nosy neighbor to visit. Boom, headshot. What about tonight kita?
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Well I wasn't
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Guess my scumlist is down to
DropBear DarthThienAn Conversion Kenpachi
Would put jaminz up there if AO didn't completely discard the option -.-
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On April 20 2011 00:06 chaoser wrote:lol...did dropbear really say i was mafia? Hilarious. Me, the one who 1) pushed hardest for prot's election 2) Was on GM's ass since day 1 3) Immediately voted Coag when prot claimed and believed him, fighting vehemently for coag's lynch 4) Even said throughout the game that I thought LSB/ON was mafia thus had the motive to shoot lol...nice try dropbear. Show nested quote +-I am a regular townie. If I was visiting M0nsterChef then I must be a Nosy Neighbour. lol...kita never said he was watching monsterchef and nosy neighbor randomly visits so you wouldn't know anyway, FAIL. Not to mention we usually lynch miller/nosy neighbors anyway since we can't prove a nosy neighbor/miller claim and they could very well be mafia. Unless the person has been playing extremely pro town we gonna lynch lol. You have not and you got caught in a lie. Lawl. I think kita said he visited monsterchef, but DropBear didn't realise kita claimed before night post, so the checks he talked about was the night before ^^
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^Coag 2.0
You want me to claim even though I got RB'ed 2 of 3 nights?
I find it curious how RB went off me when I removed conversion from my scum list =)
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Guess I might as well
Normal townie, LOL roleblocks ^^
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On April 20 2011 03:44 Kenpachi wrote:Show nested quote +On April 20 2011 03:41 Barundar wrote: Guess I might as well
Normal townie, LOL roleblocks ^^ explain your list. You pissed off your name is on it? Would like to see your suspects
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I’m not going to do a full analysis but I can put up the reasons I believe Urashimakt to be town. He has gone awol lately, so anything to analyse him on is basicly based on the first few days.
He argued quite a bit against GMarshal. He opposed the pardon strongly, and argued against the DT claim. I would not suspect scum to cast doubt on GM’s DT claim straight away:
On April 14 2011 11:14 urashimakt wrote:Show nested quote +On April 14 2011 11:10 GMarshal wrote:On April 14 2011 11:08 urashimakt wrote:On April 14 2011 10:55 GMarshal wrote:On April 13 2011 15:26 Protactinium wrote: Alright guys, now that night is over, I have another announcement to make.
I checked Coagulation last night, and he is Mafia. you sir are not a DT, because that is not how DT's funcion in this game. DTs here return a role from which you must infer alignment. You didn't claim your check revealed coag to be a goon or a roleblocker, because you had no way of knowing that that is what you would get back as a dt, you didn't check coag last night because you are an assassin, hence you dont know if he is scum and if he is you dont know what role. Can we now as a town ignore the assassin? The whole case that's been made, starting last night with DrH's evaluation, is that whether Prot is black or blue, he is banking on Coag being red. So whether Flamewheel has detected him as red or analyzed him as red, people are trusting in his need for Coagulation to be red. I don't see how this mindblowing tidbit changes anything. I am really starting to think that you are undoubtedly desperate. This info is useful to mafia because it would give them a better idea of whether he's black or blue, just to be sure. It proves absolutely nothing to town. On April 14 2011 11:03 GMarshal wrote: too late liar, I already nailed you to the wall. There's no squirming out of this one. Your case that he didn't want to tell you whether he was goon or roleblocker is not nearly as convincing as you think it is. The only reason I think we should consider not lynching Coag today is to lynch you instead and see what happens to Coag/FW during the night. you go on the invisible people list too, seriously, how the hell do you fail to see the relevance of this? flamewheel dosn't even know how the DTs work! Which means he is LYING! It means he didn't tell you. All he has to do is lie about it and there's no way town would know whether he's telling the truth or not. You made a rash ultimatum within a few minutes and, when he decided to ignore your demands, you snapped and played a pretty brash card. If you actually do turn out to be town I'm a little disappointed that a veteran would make mistakes like this.
He even does analysis on GM: + Show Spoiler + On April 14 2011 09:26 urashimakt wrote:Show nested quote +On April 14 2011 08:57 GMarshal wrote: conclusion: is the mafia team retarded? or just slow on the uptake? The missed all the good analysts and people with thread presence and went after people who weren't doing much. While im glad the missed all the people posting alot of analysis, I have to suspect that they don't enjoy a very strong leadership.
This bit was particularly interesting. The only reason I can see for being openly rude to the mafia team is in trying to endear yourself to the town. A townie could have reason to do this, sure, but I find it would probably come more naturally to someone who felt obligated. It's also interesting because, as night fell, you came out with a pretty specific list on who you wanted blues to go to work on. When no one really responded to it, you attempted to prompt responses to see whether other people were in agreement. I felt that was really anti-town because it would help mafia know who to avoid wasting KP on or getting caught killing/drugging, and who to hit: the "less important" individuals. I think it might be worth noting. + Show Spoiler + On April 13 2011 14:43 urashimakt wrote:Do bodyguards flip bodyguard when they die?I'm not going to be placing my vote on a lynch target until some of the veterans post their take on the situation over the next day, but I felt like posting why I'm most suspicious GMarshal now that we're out of the night. + Show Spoiler [Asked for specific night actions] + Also Blue list coming
Medics
Jackal- I want him lategame
Chaoser- he is thinking, even if he is wrong about me, I want a wolf not a sheep
Bum- same as chaoser
tnkted- looked pro-town to me
kitaman27- he argued against the assassin and seemed generaly helpful to the town, protect the man
DTs
bum- as much as I like him he's come in throwing alot of accusations, I'd like for someone to know his alignment
ON- we could just lynch him, but if he isn't scum I dont want to waste a lynch
redFF- Kav suspected him, he needs a check
Barundar- Dr.H top suspect, a check is called for
Conversion- duh
Lattomi- last minute vote snipe and lurker, going to consider lynching as well
Trackers
jaminz Milkyst MetalFace M0nsterChef AirbladeOrange Mig
As far as I can tell, asking for specific night actions was/is detrimental to town. It openly tells red who they should avoid hitting or visiting, just in time for them to do some night actions. It is worth noting, though, that he suggested using a medic on tnkted and tnkted still died. I'm still not convinced that's a point of absolute redemption. Jackal58 posted a protect/watch list on page 81, but it was pretty generic and just listed veterans as what appeared to be a suggestion. Also worth noting for people better at analysis. Show nested quote +On April 13 2011 03:19 GMarshal wrote: So I guess you all decided to throw away the extra 24 hours we have?
I'd like to see some opinions on things, some accusations, something!
Who do people think are the best DT targets, who do they think medics should protect?
Does anyone find my list entirely disagreeable?
GMarshal seemed very favorable to the idea of continuing the open town discussion on "who should mafia not bother hitting tonight?" He stated his stance on this before the game started, but some time after role PMs had been sent out. GM's quote bolded as follows: + Show Spoiler +On April 09 2011 10:20 chaoser wrote:Show nested quote +On April 09 2011 10:10 GMarshal wrote:On April 09 2011 09:39 DoctorHelvetica wrote: i dont talk at night
i think silence during night is the best policy for town I completely disagree with this statement, I think the additional 24 hours of information are really valuable, its like extending the day by 24 hours. I dont think the additonal information we end up giving the mafia that way outweighs that at all. I mean look at Ver's analysis in XXXVII, they were all posted at night. I actually disagree as well. Having someone flip gives a lot of new information and can give posts by people a new light. Why would you not want to analyze before the end of night where you might possibly die? Ver said he was afraid he'd be shot every night so he posted his thoughts during the night and that helped town greatly. These are actions I considered pretty suspicious. I'll be reading what the better players have to say about the night occurrences later on today before I place my own vote.
He voted for protact and got yelled at for it by coag, but stood by his vote with no wishy washyness:
On April 12 2011 13:05 urashimakt wrote:Show nested quote +On April 12 2011 13:03 Coagulation wrote:CAUSE HES NOT ASSASSIN HES MAFIA. IT WAS A FAKE CLAIM TO GAIN CRED ITS SO SAD. LOOK AT THIS SHIT On April 12 2011 12:59 urashimakt wrote: As mentioned a bit ago, I'm switching my vote back to Prot now that he's here.
##Unvote DrH ##Vote Prot 100% Wishy Washy Last minute scum bandwagon switch. Hes gonna pretend to fucking vote DOCH LOL And switches at last second. BUT HE SWITCHED TOO SOON THIS IS A LAST SECOND BANDWAGON TO GET MAFIA MAYOR. It's fine if you accuse me, but please calm down. I moved my vote from Prot because it was a couple hours before showtime and he was probably going to get modkilled. Now that he's here, I still support him for pardoner. I don't have anything else to tell you beyond that.
In my opinion he was pretty clear town in the start. Lately he has been a lot less vocal and I would love to hear more from him (pretty solid start imo), but I got a pretty strong town read on him. Especially devaluating GM’s fake claim gambit seems like a clear town move.
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It annoys me that we had 3 kills tonight but no vigi claim.
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My guess is conversion is the second roleblocker. I did nothing good day 1 and still get roleblocked, guess it was my case against him during the night that did the trick...
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Since there isn’t much to talk about during night, I thought I would run some numbers.
8. Kenpachi 9. ilovejonn 11.chaoser 15.TranceStorm 18.urashimakt 22.The_Roist 23.kitaman27 24.Lanaia//bumatlarge 25.jaminz 26.DarthThienAn 27.DoctorHelvetica 29.AirbladeOrange 30.MetalFace 31.Barundar 33.redFF//Zorkmid 39.Conversion
16 players remaining total. 3 mafia.
This is the worst case scenario, with no medic saves and only mislynches:
Night 4: 13 vs 3 – current situation Day 5: 11 vs 3 - Mislynch Night 5: 10 vs 3 Day 6: 8 vs 3 – MYLO if DrH is mafia Night 6: 7 vs 3 Day 7: 5 vs 3 - LYLO if DrH is dead/lieing about being a veteran Night 7: 4 vs 3 Day 8: 2 vs 3 – LYLO if DrH is veteran.
What this means is: Basicly if DrH is town, mafia have to gun for him. Otherwise he is able to win the game alone. All the mafia has been pretty confident about their chances though, so I’m a little worried here.
If we mislynch tomorrow, we can effectively mislynch DrH at no cost for extra information.
If we hit 1 more mafia, town KP=mafia KP, making our odds pretty good. In that case we could lynch DrH to get 2 extra days in case he is mafia.
Thoughts?
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Actually the scenario where DrH is veteran isn't true. It would go
Day 8: 2 vs 3 Night 8: 2 vs 2, mafia hit DrH Day 9: 2 vs 2, Night 9: 2 vs 1 mafia hit DrH again, DrH dies Day 10: 1 vs 1 mafia victory.
So it's basicly
Night 4: 13 vs 3 – current situation Day 5: 11 vs 3 - Mislynch Night 5: 10 vs 3 Day 6: 8 vs 3 – MYLO if DrH is mafia Night 6: 7 vs 3 Day 7: 5 vs 3 - MYLO if DrH is town
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On April 22 2011 09:02 Kenpachi wrote: \o\ so where is everyone well i tried to keep thread alive... gn
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BB got mindcontrolled by the busdriver.
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