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On March 25 2011 09:53 Tackster wrote: i KNOW i shouldn't go on but i think we may be close to a breakthrough here...
Annul: Why isn't he confirmed? Give me a situation in which he isn't blue when:
There are no ccs The blue players aren't afk
Just answer that question PLEASE
Stop answering it by telling me he IS blue and he is NOT confirmed and he COULD be blue.
Just tell me the situation in which he isn't blue given the constraints we're assuming
If blues are waiting until they get their roles to claim, so they don't counterclaim and accidentally reveal their player who becomes mass medic day/night vig and DT all at once, or something like that. :p
Like I said, I'm not considering Bum as mayor until some time has actually passed where people have their roles. Then I'll consider his blue claim more legitimate.
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On March 25 2011 09:57 Tackster wrote: OH MY GOD...
Can't have 4 blue hatters cos blues don't have KP.... Check the OP AGAIN
And ONCE AGAIN:
You haven't answered my question
I asked explain how he isnt confirmed blue without ccs
AGAIN you implied he IS blue
I don't think you've played here before, but on TL mafia, roles like hatter, vig, don't count as "KP". KP here is nightly kills a team or player, usually scum/sk, get to use nightly. Killing abilities are not included in this KP number.
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On March 25 2011 09:59 Tackster wrote: wiggles that defies my constraint that there arent any ccs...
there are ccs in that scenario - we just dont have them yet...
You were asking why he isn't confirmed, not why he won't be confirmed in the future. Right now, he's unconfirmed, and in my mind, his confirmation is 0% until blues actually get some roles. If he's still uncontested, then I'll consider him probably blue and a good mayor candidate.
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On March 25 2011 10:02 GMarshal wrote:@ wiggles Show nested quote + Blue Police Force - This is the pro town mason circle. In a world full of reds and blacks, the greens need some help, and help comes in the form of the big guns. Of course, the police can’t actually kill people, but they have their own way of helping.
To me this means NO kills, no hatters, no vigs, etc.
Oh, my bad, didn't see that, thought he was referencing where it gives KP totals at the bottom.
But also:
help comes in the form of the big guns
Maybe we're wrong, guess we'll see how he helps :p
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On March 25 2011 11:12 GMarshal wrote:Show nested quote +On March 25 2011 11:07 Jackal58 wrote:I understand it's Insane Mafia LSB but wtf am I supposed to do with an ostrich feather and a dung beetle. Be creative, design a super cannon out of it
Channel your inner MacGyver!
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BY THE POWER OF POSTS BE SLAIN!!! ARGHGHGHGHHH!!!!!!!!
Be back tomorrow guys, waiting to see if there's a blue claim or not, then we can get down to other business like scumhunting and lynches :3
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On March 26 2011 01:46 tnkted wrote:Show nested quote +On March 26 2011 01:11 Jackal58 wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On March 25 2011 23:32 tnkted wrote:Show nested quote +On March 25 2011 19:42 CubEdIn wrote: While I do agree that there are a few players who look scummy, I would also suggest we put some hard pressure on the lurkers. Especially those who are also in the item game.
I mean, yes, annul seemed very anti-town so far, and I would also get rid of such players, but he was trying to make his case and at least we have a lot of pages of posts to analyse, if need be. The quiet ones are always the ones that are hiding something. This. Amber[LighT] and Brownbear haven't posted much of anything, and i know that they both (brownbear at least) are usually pretty active. We could also put some pressure on lemonwalrus. As a matter of fact, lets analyze lemonwalrus. Show nested quote +On March 17 2011 18:48 Lemonwalrus wrote: /in if you are even still letting people in?
It is my first time, but I promise to read the rules thoroughly after class today and come prepared. He's a noobie. A green noobie (such as myself) would be excited about the game, and would be posting a lot. A blue noobie would sit back and lurk. We know he isn't a blue noobie because there aren't any in the item game. Therefore... Show nested quote +On March 24 2011 11:39 Lemonwalrus wrote:On March 24 2011 11:37 Jackal58 wrote: It's all sitting there in black and white.
Actually it is black and baby-blue. This is tl. Well this was an astounding contribution. Actually, GM called him out on it: Show nested quote +On March 24 2011 11:47 Lemonwalrus wrote:On March 24 2011 11:40 GMarshal wrote:On March 24 2011 11:39 Lemonwalrus wrote:On March 24 2011 11:37 Jackal58 wrote: It's all sitting there in black and white.
Actually it is black and baby-blue. This is tl. A wonderful contribution, so what do you think of the current candidates lemon? Are any of them worth voting for? Well, I think that the 'vote or no vote for day 1 lynch' platform is a moot point. Someone running with a day 1 vote could easily be mafia, since mafia would have a good shot at tipping the vote, especially now when there is no real suspicion on anyone. Then again they could easily be not mafia and just want to use the vote as a way to win the popular vote to make a vote for them seem like a vote for fairness. Similarly, someone running no day 1 vote could easily be mafia since, obviously getting a free kill day 1 is good for mafia. But they could easily be not mafia and just trust their own mafia sniffing capabilities better than that of the town in the case of a vote. So basically, as of right now, I have not seen any compelling reasons to vote for anyone, I'm gonna wait to see how the debates continue and vote for whoever I think has the strongest ideas for further down the road. Idk, this is my first game though, so maybe I'm thinking too hard about it. Waffling. He doesn't have an opinion. To give him credit, this is early in the game, but still he hasn't contributed anything. If he was really a noobie townie he'd be falling over himself trying to contribute something. But he doesn't, and whats more, his reasons for not contributing are very telling: he claims hes a noobie! Show nested quote +On March 25 2011 03:09 Lemonwalrus wrote: Sorry about the one-liners from before...it is my first time, I didn't realize that was inappropriate. I promise to make all future posts of mine painfully and needlessly verbose.
As far as the bum/not bum vote, I think bum is the best bet for the town for reasons that have already been discussed at length. (the biggest one for me being that I think if he wasn't blue by now one of the real blues would have surely counter-claimed) (If you are a blue and therefore know that bum isn't, please, there is no reason for you not to counter claim) So unless someone gives one hell of a compelling reason for me not to I intend to vote bum.
As far as the irc channels goes, well, gather round fellas, because I may be new to mafia, but I am an old hand at irc. I think having an irc for this is a very bad idea. Basically, it is just a more fast paced version of the forum which, on the one hand i know we all think 'well that is good it gives the scum more of a chance to fuck up and reveal themselves when they are under the gun' but the thing is, everyone will fuck up sooner or later. I'm sure if we do an irc channel literally everyone that participates will, sooner or later, say something that convinces someone that they are scum. That is what happens when you are able to share information without thinking hard about it first. (for instance, look at my signature...do you think any of those guys (besides aesop) would have said those things if they had had time to re-read it before clicking a post button?)
Also, I see a major component of the irc channel debate will be 'x isn't active in irc, he must be scum' or 'x is too active in irc, he must be scum' basically wifom madness imo, since with imperfect data either choice will put suspicion on a player and, since town outnumbers scum, more suspicion floating around should benefit scum.
So I vote no on irc and yes on bum, and the above are my reasons. Why is he using his noobiness to explain why he isn't contributing?! A true green noobie would be trying to contribute his ass off (like I am right now) instead of coming into the thread, posting unhelpful bullshit like this. Also notice how one small paragraph in that 'significant post' as chaoser calls it immediately below is actually related to the topic at hand (bum), and the rest of it is devoted to an entirely tangential vote on the IRC channel. I'd say, purely line for line, only a forth of this post is actually analysis, and its analysis that had been done by six other players by the time he posted it. Then, when he gets called out for waffling, he posts this. Show nested quote +On March 25 2011 03:17 Lemonwalrus wrote:wtf the more i post the more i get crap for not posting, what do you guys want from me ((((( Also I hadn't even thought of the impersonating people on irc thing that GMarshal brought up in his post. That is yet another convolution that irc will bring to the process. (although if we caught someone impersonating it would make it pretty obvious they were scum...so a potential for reward if a scum were to be so bold as to impersonate someone) I think the real problem with the irc is that there is such a thing as too much information when you are trying to make a decision. If we have pages and pages of posts and pages and pages of irc logs to go by, 2 sides could make bulletproof arguments for one person being scum/not scum, and it could be almost impossible to tell who was right with any sort of objectivity. Also....picking through irc logs sounds really tedious. I know that has no importance in the function of the game, but I just feel it will be less fun with a mountain of irc logs...and I kinda want to have fun. IRC IRC IRC. No discussion on bum, no discussion on kav. He has no thoughts other than IRC (which a noobie mafia would obviously not want) and a rehashing of a rehashing of bums position. And this is his last significant post in this topic! his final post says something like, "I decided not to post until roles were given out. The last ten pages in this topic could have been replaced with a kitten playing with yarn." I wasn't convinced he was mafia before I started this post but I am now. BURN THE WALRUS So since he's not you he's scum? Since hes not acting like I would (as a new player) hes either blue or scum, and since hes not blue... How about you tell me what you think new players act like in their first game when they're green? you've probably seen your share of new players. How do they act? Lemonwalruses behavior this game is competely nonsensical to me, and if he was green i'd be the other person in this game that understands his position.
I agree he needs to post/contribute a little more, but from a psychological perspective, newer players also have a tendency to become overwhelmed and lurk. In a game as active as this, it's easy to see huge numbers of pages and just get disheartened. I feel that it doesn't say much about his alignment at the moment, but if he continues to lurk after being called out, then I'd say it's something to look into. In fact, every game there's always a couple new players who just give up on playing and end up getting mod-killed, they're normally green too. They feel bored, because they don't have cool abilities/are mafia, and they just give up. I wouldn't expect that reasoning to hold this game though, as everyone either has abilities, or is in the item game.
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On March 26 2011 07:44 Insanious wrote: Um guys... the item game is NOT useful for anyone but town... If you read what LSB posted:
Q: Who gets the items? A: SURVIVING ITEM GAME PLAYERS
So say black gets the items... well guess what, we can lynch that black player the next day, and they get 0 items, all gone.
Item game is ONLY useful for town, IF the town player then doesn't die right after winning...
So ya, item game is NOT useful for anyone but town, as if anyone but town wins, we just kill that player and all items are lost.
This might be incorrect,
And if you win the item game, all the items will be given to your faction and you guys can use one of them per day!
I thought they just go to the winning faction, not to the 1 player, but maybe I'm wrong.
If there is 1 winner of the item game, and he dies, do all the items get removed, or are the items already part of the "faction", and don't just belong to the one individual?
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On March 26 2011 07:52 Coagulation wrote: MASTER WIGGLES IS CLEARLY THE SUPERIOR CORRECTOR.
THE FORCE IS STRONG IN THIS ONE
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On March 26 2011 04:13 Coagulation wrote: ##Vote: LemonWalrus
Then, I guess.
I think I'm planning on voting Bum at this point, unless a (seemingly unlikely) counterclaim comes up, and in that circumstance, I'll be voting for Kav. Unless he's the counterclaim... Then I don't know who I'm voting for. :p
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First thing's first, ##Vote: Bumatlarge. I feel ample time has passed for any sort of CC, and if blues are so dumb to have not CC'ed yet, they've done town a great disservice.
The next thing I'd like to discuss a little, is the item game. I'm feeling like people are getting a little emotional and riled up over it when they should just sit tight and try to figure out the best course of action. A lot of people have also claimed that lynching an IG player first is the best thing to do, and I agreed with this too, but I've decided to actually look at the possibilities of how the game will unravel, to see if this is what we really should be doing.
Case 1
Lynch a Red.
Then we are left with:
4 Green 1 Black
Red no longer has any interest in the item game, as they cannot shoot the Black. After Night 1, we'll be left with:
3 Green 1 Black
Assuming Black shoots into the item game, and no one uses a vig-like or medic ability. I feel that from here, finding the black in the game will be manageable, as all we need to do is analyze/scumhunt and lynch him.
Case 2
Lynch a Black.
Then we are left with:
4 Green 1 Red
So, this is a bit different. While Black will no longer have any interest in winning the items, they may still wish to shoot into the game to kill the assured red. (Not sure how likely this is) So, after Night 1, we'll be left with:
1-3 Green 0-1 Red
Assuming Red shoots into the item game, and no one uses a vig-like or medic ability. There are several possibilities here, that really rely on how many shots the red uses, and if black shoots into the game or not.
The best case scenario, is that Black takes out the Red, because then town will just win, no matter how many townies are left standing after Night 1.
The next scenario is Red shoots into the game once, and either Black doesn't shoot, or ends up stacking hits. In that case, we will start Day 2 with 3 Green, and 1 Red, and from here we have 2 more days mininum to find the Red. (Day 2+Day 3), and a maximum of 3 days, if Red continues to only use 1 KP.
However, the worst case scenario is that Red shoots once/twice into the game, and Black shoots once, neither stacking hits, and Black missing Red. Then we're left with 1 or 2 Green and 1 Red. That makes it LYLO for the item game. So while we can still win through scumhunting, we have NO room for error. If we got into this situation and managed to not lynch the Red, the best we could hope for is to medic protect the Green, or hope Black shoots Red as Red finishes off the town, so no one get the items, instead of Red.
Case 3
We lynch a Green.
Then we are left with:
3 Green 1 Red 1 Black
Here, both Red and Black have a good chance of winning the item game, and there are multiple possibilities for how this will play out. After Night 1, we'll be left with:
0-3 Green 0-1 Red 1 Black
Assuming Black always shoots into the item game, and no one uses a vig-like or medic ability.
Best Case Scenario is Black shoots Red, Red doesn't shoot. This leaves us with 3 Town, 1 Black, and we can scumhunt him. This is analogous to Case 1, except for the order Green/Red die.
The next scenario, is Black kills Red, and Red kills 1/2 Green. This will leave us with 1 Black, 1-2 Town. This is LYLO, and if we mislynch, Black gets the items, unless Red figures out who they are and roleblocks/hits them that night, resulting in no faction receiving the item.
The Worst-Case-Scenario, is if Red shoots twice, and Black shoots once, not stacking hits. This leaves us with 1 Red and 1 Black in the morning, and at that point we basically only get to choose which scum faction we'd like to give our items to. If we do manage to get into this situation, we can either lynch one of them, or if there are other scum targets, we can leave them both alive, so that Black kills Red for us, and we can lynch Black the next day, leaving us with 1 extra lynch to use, and making sure Black doesn't kill town that night. If there are no other scum targets though, we can just lynch one of the two confirmed scum players. It will come down to town's judgment, and this would still be a horrid situation for us.
Case 4
No lynch.
After Night 1, we'll be left with:
1-3 Town 1 Black 1 Red
I don't think Red would actually double kill in this situation, as their chances of winning will be pretty low, unless they can figure out who Black is to push for his lynch. So, that realistically leaves us with 2-3 Town. This is probably the most convoluted case, and the only information I can really draw from it is that this might draw the IG out for 1 more day.
Conclusions and Opinions
In my opinion, Lynching into the Item Game is a necessary evil, but we must be very careful that we hit a scum, and not town. Hitting town leaves us at the extremes with either a salvageable condition, where we can just scumhunt the Black, or with an auto-lose. I don't really like having to rely on who scum hits to win the game though, as that doesn't seem like the most reliable way to plan our moves. So, I ask all the item game players to at least provide some kind of justification into who they want to lynch, because as soon as Scum sees you suggesting the lynch of anyone who isn't them, they're going to jump on it automatically. This means Jackal's reason of consensus isn't very good, and I hope it's based on more than that. If Jackal has suggested a green player, both scum will have agreed to it, and then there only remains 1 townie to be convinced. So, a 4/6 agreement that someone is scum, realistically, is either only two town and two scum, or three town and one scum. So, in all actuality, afterward, I would look into the four who are all agreeing to the same lynch, as chances are high that at least one of them are scum.
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On March 27 2011 04:50 chaoser wrote:Show nested quote +On March 27 2011 04:46 annul wrote: i would analyze the rest, but i think it is pointless until we see what happens in day and night 1 Isn't the point that we CAN'T wait? If we lynch town in the item game we're behind in it and there's a good chance we would lose?
That was basically what I was trying to see. Just from how I figured the game could go, we almost have to lynch into the game today, or maybe Day 2 if we think Scum wouldn't kill too much. If we lynch town today, there's a pretty good chance we'll lose.
I personally like the option that relies the least on what scum does. So, firstly, that's lynching into the item game, then not hitting town. If we don't lynch into the game, or we hit town, the ball's in the scum's court, and we basically have to rely on luck to be able to make it a town victory.
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Barring anything like medics/vigs, but that adds another uncontrollable factor into it, that again, relies a fair bit on luck and the judgment of town. After lynch, I'll probably look at the situation again and maybe try to provide some advice for how power roles should act. Nothing specific, just stuff like, if we kill a town, vig shooting into the IG is probably not the best idea.
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On March 27 2011 04:57 annul wrote: his final conclusion is "we need to kill in item game."
cool, i agree, and this is what i have been saying from the get go.
as for what to do in the future, let's see what the flip is
My final conclusion is we need to kill in item game, but if we shoot town, we're relying completely on the actions of scum for whether we win or not. We have to try our hardest to kill scum on the first lynch, and how we're deciding the lynch now is just off the reads of the few people in the game. Scum will agree to any lynch that isn't them. Town will agree to any lynch they think is scum. Town will not agree to their own lynch. Scum will not agree to their own lynch. So, when you're basing the lynch off just a few players' decisions in the item game, if you picked wrong, you're going to get the support of two scum automatically, and then all they need to do is convince one more town, that's 4/6. This is why I'd really like to at least see some of the thought process behind what's going on here, because the whole town might get screwed based on the wrong decisions of just a couple people.
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On March 27 2011 05:59 Jackal58 wrote:Show nested quote +On March 27 2011 05:57 darmousseh wrote: I'm definitely in the lynch jackal camp right now. His reaction to his being suspected is almost exactly identical to another game which I played where he was mafia. I don't have enough of a read on tack to say anything. I also suspect one of annul/coag is probably black since black wants to kill mafia too, but I have no cause for it other than that they are playing very strategical right now.
Lynch jackal imo. Clues and puzzles???? I was dead day 1 no matter what I did. Thank you LSB.
If you look in the Day post, there are references to the Blacks being backed up by businesses. This is clearly a clue referencing OPEC. Case Solved!
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On March 27 2011 08:29 Lanaia wrote: iGrok, if you're reading this, speak more. You're talking elsewhere on TL. Sure, it isn't much, but if you have enough time to think about streaming Pokemon, you have enough time to at least post in here.
Rofl, I saw that earlier too.
Also, Bum, since we're 2 and a half hours from the deadline, and for the sake of transparency in the mayorship, how are the talks with your PM circle going? Are you guys getting closer to making a final decision?
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I leaning towards thinking that you're town now too, annul, based on your responses and posts recently. I think tack is town, and maybe coag, but he's acting different than normal. Lemonwalrus hasn't had much of a thread presence, so I'm kind've null on him, and darm's lurking so I have nothing to work with in regards to making an alignment call. Jackal has some plan to confirm himself and Coag, but a lot of the things he's said in the thread and his behavior have seemed really scummy to me lately.
Of the people brought up to lynch:
Annul- Causes big arguments in the thread, kind've spammy, leaning town Tack- Posts in thread have seemed pro-town, IG players say otherwise Jackal- Has a "confirmation plan", tunneling Tack, some scummy-looking posts recently (In my opinion) Darmo- Lurking pretty hard, not much information besides that
Do IG players have any extra info on Darm for why they think he's scum, is it just a gut-feel, or is it because of his lurking?
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Also, my question for the confirmation plan (You don't need to tell me if it will screw it up), but if it's based off item abilities, it seems likely that it could fail, if someone decides to Steal, so are you relying on item uses? Because that might not work out very well.
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Ok, just reading through quickly, and it seems like Tack is 100% scum in the eyes of a lot of people. However, I'm looking at the information available, and it seems like there's still the possibility he isn't. So, playing Devil's Advocate:
What we know:
Coag had a gun. Jackal and Lemon knew this. Jackal referenced having KP in thread.
Coag shot at Tack Scum shot at Tack/Annul Coag's (and maybe scum's) shot was redirected to Annul Jackal's item was stolen
What we've learned:
Unless Black is just screwing with the item game for giggles, Red have the Bus role. Blacks don't really seem to have any motivation we know of for saving Tackster or trying to incriminate him. If Red used their Bus on Tackster in order to prevent a foreseen hit, they wouldn't redirect it to their own hit target, meaning Blacks used their KP on Annul/Tack, and the Reds hit Gmarshal + someone else (Barring unknown Town/Blue KP).
What we think happened:
Tack is Mafia Tack thinks Jackal has KP, steals to avoid death Scum also buses Tack, Coag's shot is redirected to Annul
Logical Inconsistency:
If Tackster were Red, why would he both try to steal the item to prevent his death, AND Red would use their Bus on him? Surely one would have been sufficient to save him. This is primarily what is making me look more closely into what's happening rather than blindly accepting that Tack is scum.
What might have happened (and how it will continue):
Jackal is Mafia Jackal says he has KP in thread, Tack steals (Don't know his motivations, but he thinks Jackal is red, so maybe he wanted to try to stop a red KP) Coag really has the gun Jackal convinces Coag to shoot Tack Mafia know Coag is shooting Tack, bus it to Annul Town is now convinced Tack is scum, lynches Green. Scum kills townies, wins IG
How we should proceed:
This situation is entirely contingent on how likely it is Jackal is town. If he is town, Tack is assuredly Red and Mafia was anxious enough to save him that they used a power and tried to steal the gun, which is illogical but possible. However, if Jackal is red, then he just orchestrated this to make town believe that Tack was red, so we lynch a green and give scum a good chance of winning the IG. Like I said, I'm playing Devil's Advocate here, because I agree with Cubed that this seems a little too easy, and to Jackal's credit, I think he has the balls and the skill to actually try something like this. So, I'd like to first hear from Tack what actions he took last night, and then hear what makes Jackal a confirmed town. In my opinion, Jackal has said some scummy things in the thread, and we haven't really heard what exactly Coag/Jackal's mutual confirmation plan was. In addition, Jackal's defense thus far for not being red is "Do you think scum would stick their dick out like that day 1?", which is very WIFOM and unsubstantial.
I wanted to bring this up, because no one's really questioning what's happening, and whether or not Tack is scum, we need to be careful of our actions and place all plans under close scrutiny. I haven't heard the reasoning behind Tack's being Red that is anything more than: "He was bussed, mafia tried to save him", and I feel that since Jackal knew about Coag's gun, it's plausible that he may still be the Red left in the item game. So, I'd like to invite further discussion on the matter, because as it is, it's too easy for Red to possibly bandwagon Tackster and town to sheep along. This won't give us any information that will be useful in future days, whereas maybe my dissension might be able to spark some kind of conversation.
TL;DR
Tackster looks scum right now. No one is considering the possibility he isn't however. Jackal may be scum, and made it look like Tackster is red This depends on if Jackal is town or not. In my opinion Jackal has said some scummy things and is a good enough player to try something like this. We need to have more discussion or we'll get no information from the lynch.
Trust No One. Question Everything.
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