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On January 26 2011 11:33 kitaman27 wrote:Show nested quote +On January 26 2011 11:21 bumatlarge wrote:On January 26 2011 11:12 SiNiquity wrote:On January 26 2011 11:09 Mr. Wiggles wrote: Hi Barundar!
So mayor should be getting mafia numbers tonight, awesome. And if he's smart, every night. I think if we could spare a night on SKs so we can can determine the night kills better, it would be useful, but I what your saying. Once we have the mafia number, we also have the SK number unless there is a vig hit. Why would checking if the lynched was a SK be more helpful than checking if he was scum?
Almost true, but we are assuming that #ofM/2 is the formula, which may or may not be the case. If we all feel safe assuming that, then you're right
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On January 26 2011 11:46 Mr. Wiggles wrote:Show nested quote +On January 26 2011 11:43 bumatlarge wrote:On January 26 2011 11:33 kitaman27 wrote:On January 26 2011 11:21 bumatlarge wrote:On January 26 2011 11:12 SiNiquity wrote:On January 26 2011 11:09 Mr. Wiggles wrote: Hi Barundar!
So mayor should be getting mafia numbers tonight, awesome. And if he's smart, every night. I think if we could spare a night on SKs so we can can determine the night kills better, it would be useful, but I what your saying. Once we have the mafia number, we also have the SK number unless there is a vig hit. Why would checking if the lynched was a SK be more helpful than checking if he was scum? Almost true, but we are assuming that #ofM/2 is the formula, which may or may not be the case. If we all feel safe assuming that, then you're right Yes, but does it matter if we know how many SK there are right away, or just that we killed them? The SK number almost helps mafia as much as town, because if they know they are all dead they don't have to worry about wasting hits.
Just saying mafia, will be able to determine SK numbers anyway, so having an early census on them wouldn't tell mafia what they don't already know, and I'm not sure. We would use it on night 2, where all the SKs most likely would not have died.
On January 26 2011 11:49 kitaman27 wrote:Show nested quote +On January 26 2011 11:44 LSB wrote:On January 26 2011 11:44 kitaman27 wrote:On January 26 2011 11:43 bumatlarge wrote:On January 26 2011 11:33 kitaman27 wrote:On January 26 2011 11:21 bumatlarge wrote:On January 26 2011 11:12 SiNiquity wrote:On January 26 2011 11:09 Mr. Wiggles wrote: Hi Barundar!
So mayor should be getting mafia numbers tonight, awesome. And if he's smart, every night. I think if we could spare a night on SKs so we can can determine the night kills better, it would be useful, but I what your saying. Once we have the mafia number, we also have the SK number unless there is a vig hit. Why would checking if the lynched was a SK be more helpful than checking if he was scum? Almost true, but we are assuming that #ofM/2 is the formula, which may or may not be the case. If we all feel safe assuming that, then you're right It was mod confirmed. Don't make assumptions about the formula. Show nested quote +On January 20 2011 11:44 LSB wrote: Wait... what?? I sec as I talk to node.
Mafia KP is just the standard [#Mafia Alive]/2 rounded up. Oh, so this might not be true?
On January 20 2011 11:44 LSB wrote: Wait... what?? I sec as I talk to node.
Mafia KP is just the standard [#Mafia Alive]/2 rounded up. Ah I just found this, didn't see it in the OP.
So now I'm a little confused by what LSB said.
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First Part Cue the clash of lightning. Play the roar of thunder. And make sure there is a shower of rain.
It was just a movie scene, just something from a scary film. A bad dream. This couldn’t be happening.
I should explain.
Mr. Zergling + Show Spoiler +Favorite Movie scene: There's no earthly way of knowing Which direction we are going. There's no knowing where we're rowing Or which way the river's flowing. Is it raining? Is it snowing? Is a hurricane a blowing?
Not a speck of light is showing so the danger must be growing. Are the fires of hell a glowing? Is the grisly reaper mowing? Yes! The danger must be growing For the rowers keep on rowing. And they're certainly not showing any signs that they are slowing!
Kavdragon pointed this out. From a movie, obviously, but it's about a rowboat (life is but a dream )in some form a of precipitation. Closest I could find relating to a movie. Also he has the poem "The Raven" which is probably a long shot, but "just something from a scary film. A bad dream. This couldn’t be happening. I should explain." could be something.
A lot of people have videos, but none of them are too relevant. After Original Name, this seems fairly strong, and I looked hard, but couldn't find much on this part for anyone else.
I don't think Kav really likes me now lol. Here.
On January 26 2011 08:30 bumatlarge wrote:Show nested quote +On January 26 2011 08:21 Jackal58 wrote:On January 26 2011 08:12 bumatlarge wrote:A scum mayor is the worst scenario by far, regardless of anything else. This means we will never get information on town numbers. False-claims will be rampant, and it will turn into a clue-crapshoot. I want to avoid this at all cost. For this reason, I believe one of RoL or Kav is scum. It's just way to strong an opportunity to pass up. If we are luky, dr.H was the mafia claim, but seeing as how he had relatively no votes, I don't think this is a viable outcome to put your hopes in. I feel we should RNG our mayor :/ as right now we have a 50% shot at picking a scum mayor, or we can take a <25% chance at one. I'd like to hear thoughts. On a BG plan + Show Spoiler +We want to use the census as long as possible because it's basically 1/2 of a coroner everyday. I've been thinking this through and I believe the best option is to splice 4 and 5. Option 4: Vetclaim: Two Veterans claim, they are chosen as bodyguards. Upside: Vets are tough to kill, make excellent bodyguards. Essentially make mayor invulnerable for at least 3-4 cycles. Downside: Reds can STILL claim to mess it up (and they will.) Vets more useful hidden amongst the town, to soak hits. No guarantee this setup has two vets. Verdict: If it wasn't for the fact that reds can claim, I'd be in support of this idea. I personally think vets would be more useful ensuring we have census for basically the entire game than sitting in the silent majority, hoping they can soak up a hit. However, there's no way a smart mafia team wouldn't have a goon claim vet, with no way to prove/disprove it, and that's a 66% chance we run into the 1 town-1 scum setup. So no.
Option 5: Mayoral preference: Mayor picks his bodyguards, they accept. Upside: Kav/RoL are both good players, can probably select two greens. Downside: Kav/RoL aren't infallible, scum mayor can basically screw town over with this by intentionally selecting blues (bluesniping) and making it look accidental when they die, gives all the power to the mayor, something we want to avoid. Verdict: I don't like it, despite Kav kind of softly pushing for it. I'd vote against this plan. We have only 1 veteran claim. We should tell him to refresh the thread to avoid multiple claims. He will be first choice. Yes, mafia can claim it, but I'm not entirely sure mafia wants to which I will get to in a minute. The next BG will be chosen by Mayor. He will make the person is believes is most likely a vanilla town. If he is scum, then we can't be sure what he will do, but a mafia BG leaves a nice SK target on his back. So this would ultimately lead to how badly the other factions want the mayor to die. With 30 people in the game, I believe there are several set-ups. 5 mafia, 2-3SKs. 6-7 mafia, 1-2 SKs 7-8 mafia, No SKs (8 seems highly unlikely) With a rough 25% of players being non-town, BG chosen by mayor has a good chance of being town. With more mafia then veterans, statistically mafia will be more likely to be 2nd BG. I believe SK has no real purpose in trying to kill mayor within first 3 days. As a lone-wolf, he benefits from information brought to town, and he can blend well until medics and vets start getting counted. He can't really fake why he survived a hit if a mafia about to get lynched accuses him of being an SK. Ultimately, SK wants mayor to state how many mafia, SKs, one other blue role to keep his clam safe. SK should be preoccupied with DT and mafia sniping. For this reason, I do not like censusing DTs til later on, so SKs won't feel safe enough to hit mayor. Mafia then will take a stab at non-townie mayor very early on. Medics should take a high-priority in protecting BGs, and if both die and mayor is alive, I don't think you should take it off him. On January 16 2011 15:03 Node wrote:
Mayor You are the elected leader of the town. Elections will take place on day 1. When elected, you will publicly select two bodyguards to protect you for the rest of the game. While bodyguards are alive, you cannot be targeted by night hits or the roleblocker. Role checks on you will return “Mayor”. Don't think that's an option. What isn't? RNG mayor? There are ways, as in everyone posts a number between 1-2, and we add them up. The probability of scum landing a mayor this way is miniscule, and attempting to tamper with it will most likely get screwed. Here I'll start. 2 I cannot change it, and now d3 will be our choice until the next person posts a number. If we set a deadline, mafia can't wait til the last minute.
On January 26 2011 08:33 BrownBear wrote: Ok, I guess I'll bite.
1.
On January 26 2011 08:37 bumatlarge wrote: Let's just see how many people do it. Current number is 3, and numbers don't count after 8:00 est which is in 1&1/2 hours. GMarshal will be our mayor! :D
I gave an idea to determine mayor randomly off the top of my head. You are really gonna drill me for anRNG plan to demonstrate how a mayor would be picked? I knew I would have to extend the time if it was to hold any water, so if you legitimately think I was trying to sway it away from you in that time, I don't know what to say. Hope you are gonna post more then this if you do an analysis. I wasn't there early enough to give my opinion that 2 candidates weren't enough to mean anything, but I stand by that.
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I have to sleep, I'll try to respond in the morning.
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ill elaborate more when im on a piece of technology that will actually do what i tell it to.
before monday bum: OK 3 candidates (i missed replacements like a genius), town is alright because kav did run before roles, and town can still win with good clue hunting and analysis.
after monday bum: holy shit. It would be very hard for town to win with scum mayor, and there are only two candidates. Everyone is disccussing BGs instead... I better bring this to light. Oh look 3 hours left it doesn't matter what I do.
I think thats my reasoning in a nutshell. Things I didnt put together: Dr.H could have been scum candidate, but he didnt generate much hype from anybody. Also Kav is keeping the accusation based on what pertains to the immediate FoS, and I believe a mafiaso mayor would have bagged some clues and more specifics to my analysis to try to nail a 2nd lynch. It seems kav is willing to believe me if I provide the correct arguement, which is good for town, becuase you and I can tbe more prone to trust him more, and we can avoid a very bad mislynch.
I suggest we put our coins in kavs korner. Meds should prot the BGs, as it gives us the best shot at winning for now. ill be around later to go more in depth and answer questions.
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On January 26 2011 15:03 Kavdragon wrote:My Case for Bumatlarge: On January 22 2011 01:35 bumatlarge wrote:Please don't kill me first, mafia town, just cause I'm an easy-read. Post analysis: Show nested quote +On January 23 2011 14:56 bumatlarge wrote: It's better to have a good player as mayor regardless of alignment then someone who you know might be prone to mistakes. Lol, wut? So it would be better to have a really good player who is scum in the mayor seat, than a bad townie?
In standard set-up, yes. Good players can't make mistakes and play them off. They will be pressured to play town to the best of their abilities. New or bad mayors tend to make lots of mistakes, and the "legitimate mistake" card comes up a lot and it only hurts town's overall play.
Show nested quote +On January 26 2011 08:12 bumatlarge wrote: A scum mayor is the worst scenario by far, regardless of anything else. This means we will never get information on town numbers. False-claims will be rampant, and it will turn into a clue-crapshoot. I want to avoid this at all cost. For this reason, I believe one of RoL or Kav is scum. It's just way to strong an opportunity to pass up. If we are luky, dr.H was the mafia claim, but seeing as how he had relatively no votes, I don't think this is a viable outcome to put your hopes in.
I feel we should RNG our mayor :/ as right now we have a 50% shot at picking a scum mayor, or we can take a <25% chance at one. I'd like to hear thoughts. ...
Contradicts his earlier statement. He says that he doesn't want a clue-crapshoot, but the only way to avoid this is analysis, something that he hasn't done any of. Says he doesn't want a crap shoot, but wants to RNG the mayor. He says that RoL OR Kav is scum, but is unwilling to do an analysis of the two of us. Just two people. This game is based off of analysis, not probability.
I think it's fairly clear to see these are posts made with different information. In every other set-up with mayor I have played, there are multiple work-arounds to a scum mayor, ways to check what they are doing with their powers is pro-town. I mistakenly assumed mayor was similar to these games, where mafia mayors happened all the time. Mayor is the only role that receives sound information about dead players. We really have no way to check if you are lying, and no way to find this information on our own. I think it's pretty clear the gravity of the mayoral situation did not sink in until much later. I was unfortunately a very late-bloomer to the that realization. It then occurred having only 2 candidates would likely result in a mafia win, which I'm still uncertain about. Whether you prefer anaylsis or probability, it doesn't change the fact that there is no downside for mafia to win the election. You would have to be severely naive to think they wouldn't 99 times out of 100 give it a shot. Please read the mayor description again and tell me mafia won't run for that with a straight face.
Show nested quote +On January 23 2011 15:44 bumatlarge wrote:Well. I've quickly scanned through Mercmafia and BCE, and I like what I see. Very active townie who takes care in what he says. He'd probably assume a DarthThienMayor persona if he is scum. Not very flexible, but hard to get rid of. Just need to keep an eye on him. All in all, a very capable mayor. He has my vote. Show nested quote +On January 25 2011 12:52 bumatlarge wrote: Gonna put my vote on kav, and if he can spot a few more clues on different folks and finalize his statement on picking BG's, my vote is staying there. Very confident in me as mayor.
Confident in your abilities, but at this time, if you decided to keep tabs on when these were all being posted, I wasn't sincerely worried town would lose if you did happen to be mafia. Read that link about Darth in my quote above. If that was this set-up, and he won, he could legitimately state "I am mafia, and will be lynching myself first" and mafia would have been in a better position then they were in that set-up. You can't disagree with that.
On January 26 2011 08:12 bumatlarge wrote: I believe one of RoL or Kav is scum.
On January 26 2011 09:13 bumatlarge wrote: I never said either of the candidates was pretty pro-town Changes his opinion without saying why. Why would he so confidantly vote for someone he didn't think was town?
Putting words in mouth? You being very selective with my quotes, but I don't mind. Here, let's match the up.
+ Show Spoiler +On January 23 2011 14:56 bumatlarge wrote: It's better to have a good player as mayor regardless of alignment then someone who you know might be prone to mistakes. On January 23 2011 15:44 bumatlarge wrote:Well. I've quickly scanned through Mercmafia and BCE, and I like what I see. Very active townie who takes care in what he says. He'd probably assume a DarthThienMayor persona if he is scum. Not very flexible, but hard to get rid of. Just need to keep an eye on him. All in all, a very capable mayor. He has my vote. On January 25 2011 12:52 bumatlarge wrote: Gonna put my vote on kav, and if he can spot a few more clues on different folks and finalize his statement on picking BG's, my vote is staying there. This Bum seems to be confident he can win the game regardless of mayor's alignment. Clearly, he is overlooking mayor's abilities. If this Bum was scum, what exactly is he trying to do? Downplay the role of mayor certainly! He doesn't necessarily say Kav is town, but with this mindset, he feels it won't hamper him or the town if Kav was not. On January 26 2011 08:12 bumatlarge wrote: A scum mayor is the worst scenario by far, regardless of anything else. This means we will never get information on town numbers. False-claims will be rampant, and it will turn into a clue-crapshoot. I want to avoid this at all cost. For this reason, I believe one of RoL or Kav is scum. It's just way to strong an opportunity to pass up. If we are luky, dr.H was the mafia claim, but seeing as how he had relatively no votes, I don't think this is a viable outcome to put your hopes in.
I feel we should RNG our mayor :/ as right now we have a 50% shot at picking a scum mayor, or we can take a <25% chance at one. I'd like to hear thoughts. ...
On January 26 2011 08:12 bumatlarge wrote: I believe one of RoL or Kav is scum. On January 26 2011 09:13 bumatlarge wrote: I never said either of the candidates was pretty pro-town This Bum is severely different. He realizes how bad it would be for mafia to have mayor. He sounds not at all confident that town will not win if mayor is red. His decisions are rash and he apparently is very quick to point out he never had an opinion on the alignment of the candidates. He brings needless attention to himself that completely contradicts his previous motives as scum; to underplay the value of mayor. He doesn't really care if he gains any FoS about saying one of the candidates must be scum. He's either a mafia with amnesia, or he's a townie who had a sudden realization about something.
Show nested quote +On January 26 2011 08:37 bumatlarge wrote: Let's just see how many people do it. Current number is 3, and numbers don't count after 8:00 est which is in 1&1/2 hours. GMarshal will be our mayor! :D Starts a concerted push for RNG'ing the mayor. As has been pointed out before it's a terrible plan that is very easily influenced by the mafia. He also starts this with 1.5 hours before the end of the day.
I did push that with the intention of extending the time to allow more thought on RNG which I believed to be a decent choice for town to take, though i do see the method I choose could lead to some problems with people picking too late and what not. But if time was extended, we could have generated a lot more discussion on to the election, which is much more valuable then discussing the way BGs are picked, though I am not saying that isn't an important facet. I was being purposefully impulsive and if I brought the focus to the really important matter and in the process I put myself out there, so be it.
Show nested quote +On January 26 2011 11:00 bumatlarge wrote: The RNG plan isn't too great with only a few hours left and it was mostly just a thought in response to the situation Backs out of his plan, and tries to dismiss it as only an idea. This was not the feeling I got from the posts, and judging by the fact that BB followed along, I'd say that he got the same message from Bum.
Right after my time extension got denied. I don't regret posing the idea like something I was trying to carry out. People tend to lost track of what they are talking about. Look at aidnai's post. That's pretty sad how much attention that got.
Show nested quote +On January 26 2011 11:00 bumatlarge wrote: lol...? Do you realize how strong mayor is? Do you honestly think scum wouldn't try to have someone run? If I was in your shoes as town, RoL would be pretty fishing looking. And you aren't, which says something about you. Now I really hope you don't get mayor if this is actually how you think things through. Killing the only person who says you might be red is not the way to go. This is the core of your argument. (bolded) You are basing your argument off of something that may or may not be true. Sound familiar? Show nested quote +On January 23 2011 11:03 LSB wrote: [*]WIFOM: Wine in Front of Me. Used to point out reasoning based on assumptions that may or may not be true. For example, Mafia would want to kill LSB. Therefore since LSB isn’t dead, he’s mafia.
Also, from what I've gathered from other games, the typical meta from mafia recently has been "Lie back and let the town destroy itelf" not "Activly engage the town". But this is wifom too.
I COMPLETELY DISAGREE. If a person can increase your chances of winning at least 3-fold, with just the risk of putting yourself out there. I cannot fathom why they would not. That's all I have. I am not just assuming they had a candidate, I am certain they did. Alright, if mafia didn't run for mayor, then the entire mafia team is stupid. This isn't WIFOM, because in one case I am right, and in another town wins anyway. Unfortunately, being right isn't very satisfying for me, I'd rather town winning with my help. That's why I play. This is my contribution at the moment.
Ending with that, I will concentrate my focus on the upcoming clues. Of course, I will analyze everyone I put a clue on.
Diagnosis This looks like scummy play to me. Perhaps overly scummy, but this could be explained: This game has no flipping, which means that the mafia do not need to worry about being dissasociated with eachother as much. If Bum and BB are scum, they don't need to worry about agreeing with eachother, because if one of them flips, the town still knows nothing about their alignment. This could very easily make a mafia more cocky, and forward with their posting. Conclusion: Bumatlarge is scum.
I wouldn't feel I was playing the game properly if I wasn't forward with my opinions. Perhaps I should be less forward? Never thought of myself as cocky either. I'll take it as a compliment.
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On January 27 2011 09:04 kitaman27 wrote:Show nested quote +On January 26 2011 09:29 bumatlarge wrote: Considering there is a better chance of him being red, I guess I will. Though RoL should be more vocal. Alright RoL TIME TO WIN YOU TOWNIE. Just curious, what indicated to you that Kavdragon was more likely scum than RoL. And since that was the case, why would you wait for someone suggesting RoL rather than voting him in the first place.
Initially I thought Kav running before he got his alignment was better, and figured Dr.H could have been mafia candidate, and it would be very suspicious for decon to continue the campaign, but rather then look at it as his chances of rolling mafia, I looked at how many people really tried to win against him. I thought this when whoever suggested RoL instead, and RoL was really the only person vs Kav, I didn't mind switching. RoL would have to be a pretty poor shot at a mafia candidate.
After night ends, I want to try to spend the time I have left looking at clues and analyzing, so I'd prefer to answer curious people right now.
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On January 27 2011 09:49 Impervious wrote:Show nested quote +On January 27 2011 09:35 Kavdragon wrote: Bum: I don't want to get totally sidetracked onto JUST analyzing you, but here are a few responses to your defense.
I disagree with your statement that a good mafia player being mayor is better than a bad townie. Sure you might be able to catch a good player, but a bad townie wouldn't deliberately mislead the town. We would still get information, and the mafia wouldn't. That's pretty obvious to me.
You argue that mafia couldn't pass up a role like mayor. You yourself didn't realize how powerful it was till late in the game.
At the time you brought this up, there were only two candidates. If one was scum, and one wasn't, why would you not analyze them, and vote for the one you thought was town? Why don't you analyze us now?
The fact that you voted for me, before switching to RoL shows clearly that you didn't have any opinion about which of us looked more town. That's EXACTLY the type of mindset mafia are in. They know who is, and is not a mafia, so they don't need to form opinions about how scummy people are, or are not.
Also, that last statement was not directed at you specifically, it was a possibility of general mafia play this game.
Thing is, if you're mafia, then you'd also know who else is mafia, and could pick someone who seems to be playing a little wierd, single them out, and lead a lynch. With this game's setup, since it's impossible for us to directly know if it was a mafia that was killed or not, or if the info from the census ability is actually legit, trying to single a non-mafia out for an obvious lynch right now is exactly what a mafia mayor would try to do. And a mafia candidate would be able to get more votes, on average, because they could get votes from other mafia players to secure themselves in the position. Tbh, I say we start lynching ppl who voted for Kavdragon, for that reason. I mean, it's technically possible that RoL is a mafia, and a bunch of people who voted for him were mafia (myself included, obviously), but, statistically speaking, if a candidate was a mafia, they'd be the one to win the election more often. At least, if the mafia actually played well. And, if neither were mafia, then it'd be purely random anyways (obviously, we'll try to look at people who seem more suspicious as primary targets, to increase our chances), and for the first couple of days, wouldn't be a bad move. At least until we can get some better information. Same deal if both were mafia (highly unlikely, but possible). Since I'm worried about our mayor being a mafia atm, I'd rather hear some other people's ideas as to what we should be doing.
But he is right, during that period of time of the RNG debacle, I didn't read into either of them, which is probably the scummiest thing I did. We shouldn't be lynching based on pure information of who did what, but mostly of who is saying what, and how they correspond to clues. I have a bad habit of relying on information over analysis and I suggest you shake that now, especially in this set-up. Kav is saying, we can't just say one of them is mafia without analysis, which I agree with.
If you want to judge Kav or RoL, you should take at least as much consideration into what you analyze about them then what you get from information that inevitably leads to WIFOM at this stage.
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On January 27 2011 10:09 Jackal58 wrote:Show nested quote +On January 27 2011 09:37 darmousseh wrote:On January 27 2011 09:31 Jackal58 wrote:On January 27 2011 09:04 kitaman27 wrote:On January 26 2011 09:29 bumatlarge wrote: Considering there is a better chance of him being red, I guess I will. Though RoL should be more vocal. Alright RoL TIME TO WIN YOU TOWNIE. Just curious, what indicated to you that Kavdragon was more likely scum than RoL. And since that was the case, why would you wait for someone suggesting RoL rather than voting him in the first place. Thing is Kav started his campaign well before roles were passed out. If he is scum it's pure RNG. I'd be more concerned with the few that started to campaign after Day 1 post. Are you your brothers keeper? Babies come from aisle 7 at WalMart. At least that's where my wife tells me ours came from. I think it's time to move on past the kavdragon, ROL, bum mayor and election stuff. There simply isn't enough information to reveal anything except that bum changes his mind faster than a girl, says a few semi-contradictory like many girls and reacts emotionally to kavs accusations just like a girl. Conclusion: Bum is a female, or an alien, or drunk. I'm quite fluent in drunk speak. Bum is not drunk. Whether he is a female alien is irrelevant to the problem at hand. You were one of the ones to attempt to mount a mayoral campaign. You're worthy of close observation.
I think it's safe to say I had a beer or two, but I think I have a beer or two every time I post.
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Analysis on RoL Brief Overview # of posts: 36 Ran for mayor, and has posted once since mayor was picked.
In Depth
On January 25 2011 18:44 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: Yeah that's true. I think we haven't really discussed how important census is either. Obviously the first night we should check to see how many mafia there are so we can periodically check our progress. I suggest every other night we check mafia and figure something else out that is useful to do.
My current thoughts are N1 check all mafia count. N2 we check serial killer count. That should give us an idea of the KP count. It might even give us insight into clues if we understand how many of the night kills are ALWAYS going to be attributed to the SK's. From previous games if the mafia KP formula is X/2 = KP where X is total mafia members then each night KP/clues will alternate between the players while SK's own their KP solely and we don't have to worry about overlapping.
I think the best way to attempt to use census is constantly alternating between checking SK's and checking mafia total count that way we kind of have an idea of how many mafia/SK are left and can judge our progress and get an idea of a mafia pushed a bad lynch thinking we couldn't tell the difference. The reasoning being that I expect mafia to attempt to be more aggressive in this set up since there is no flips so they don't face true repercussions for their actions. The only issue with this plan is it relies on the mayor being honest and town aligned. Its another reason we need a town aligned mayor, census will give us a HUGE advantage that I woudln't want to throw away. Personally I think Kav is probably a townie so I am not too worried about either one of us getting it. Although I do find it strange that the mafia aren't vying for such a powerful role which is what makes me a bit suspicious of Kav, but my read on him is he wouldn't be comfortable enough to do this his first game as mafia and I will stick to that I suppose.
Tomorrow before I go to work I am going to try to do some actual clue and behavioral analysis as well as look over the OG guy. Since Day ends tomorrow one of us has to decide on a lynch target for sure.
RoL is definitely aware of what census does, but rather then see it as a necessity, it's just an advantage. States he believes Kav is town, and is apathetic to who wins. And also, Kav has been mafia before I believe, but that might be my fault if RoL read my post on Kav, as I missed the game he was red. Gives general info on what usually is the set-up. Promises A&C (analysis and clues). I straightforward candidate ATM.
On January 25 2011 13:48 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: I like your reasoning Kav all up until the bit about the mason's. By the mason joining with the mayor it is creating a circle so to speak which I believe is what will do us in. We can't have all our ideas coming from 2-3 people. I want everyone contributing and by creating a circle you destroy possibility of that. I don't approve of any plan that puts powerful people and powerful roles together when they can't be confirmed. It leads to players looking for guidance from those who they perceive as "knowing more".
Mason's are an interesting role. The way I'd recommend playing it would be to try to recruit those who you think are town and treat everything they say as if you think they are mafia. IN PMland people are more likely to slip up and say something stupid. They are also more inclined to try to hard manipulate someone through PM's. From a mafia perspective it is MUCH safer than manipulating people publicly. Anyway, the mason role needs to be constantly vigilant and never too trusting.
I will switch my vote back too kav.
I personally feel RoL is underestimating masons here. Getting recruited means you are in contact with a confirmed townie if roles hold true. Though with no-flip, and census being focused on mafia, it would be difficult to refute a fake-claim. Say on day 3, someone might say "Oh a mason PM'd me and he is contact with DT," we don't have much to check this, as a DT won't confirm anything by checking proclaimee.
Agh enough, this is about RoL. He doesn't want town to focus all the info between a small group, which seems unlikely, as mayor can safely give census details publicly. And A&C can be done by everyone. If a mason is able to connect things, he should.
On January 25 2011 13:39 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:I don't believe in a mayor centered town obviously. That is stupid. I am going to try to encourage everyone to contribute and analyze because that is the only way we are going to win this game. We need to make people talk and make them slip up if they are not town aligned. The only reason I want to be mayor is so I have a longer period of time where I can try and make people contribute and attempt to be a voice of reason. So Amber, how are things? I find it interesting that you quick response my prod when I know you do 4 day work weeks at home and somehow don't really contribute much besides responding to that Anyway, I am going to girlfriends for a few hours. When I get back you will all get more.
"Everyone should A&C!" No wonder Kav is getting ansy with people. Perhaps if RoL made an actual effort. on Amber, instead of playing the "I want to FoS you but I'm not going to" game.
On January 25 2011 13:15 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: Kav, my entire platform is not to put all your eggs in one potentially scum basket. By revolving everything around the mayor you are dooming the town. Stop with the stupidity.
I am leaning towards Amber[LighT] for my Day 1 lynch.
"Yeah Kav don't be stupid, let town's overwhelming analyzing be our focal point!........ By the way this is the person I want to lynch. Cyas"
:/ Doubt I need to say much.
On January 25 2011 13:08 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:Show nested quote +On January 25 2011 10:45 SiNiquity wrote:On January 25 2011 10:33 Meapak_Ziphh wrote: Yeah I'm good with your case against ON Kav, and you just made me feel a lot better about voting for you. However several people have voted for both you and RoL now and failed to give a reason for those votes. I'd like everyone to justify their votes in the thread for later reference. I voted for Kav because he seems like he's going to be a good, active mayor. Since he inadvertently started his campaign prior to the roles given out, the chances of him being mafia are as good as an RNG without any of the downsides. I liked RoL's long post, but it was too long overdue and not enough to persuade me. I remember a while ago they used to ban that in games. I guessed we stopped though. Running before the game started is stupid and doesn't give you shit to analyze. They can use it as a point of trust when they could of lucked their way into a strong mafia position.
Well, I tried to not consider this when I was determining between Kav and RoL. RoL just plain doesn't like it! Not one bit!
On January 25 2011 13:02 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:Show nested quote +On January 25 2011 08:55 BrownBear wrote: Who is aidinai? More importantly, why has he managed to completely derail town with one useless post?
Let's focus more on the mayoral debate. For one, I wonder why RoL voted Kav without giving reason. Maybe he's just not voting for himself, either because he doesn't think he can, or because he is being polite. Or maybe he's decided he doesn't want the mayoral position that much after all. If so, why? To answer this. I generally don't like voting for myself in an election, I feel like its bad taste. But if people are going to think I am conceding the position when I just pushing for it then I will change my vote.
What a charlatan! Praise his deeds!
Another post that isn't analysis on clues or behavior. If kav posted this, I would have ignored it in my analysis, but RoL doesn't get that luxury.
On January 25 2011 04:49 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: To answer what you said amber, the reason I responded about my playstyle was to save drh the time of reading about what I do as mafia. I don't think I spent too much time discrediting him, all I really said was he could be a really dangerous mayor, especially if hes mafia.
And I didn't see the day 1 lynch thing in the OP.
A lot of "how I play" and "why I do"
If people started to doubt your actions, I'd be one of the first to defend them, but seeing as you have yet to do much, well I have nothing to defend. Now, if he did say it was too early to analyze, I'd cut slack, but there are clues on the table.
On January 24 2011 18:18 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: TMM2, Insane Mafia, Merc Mafia would be accurate to my current play style. All my previous games as mafia would not be accurately representative of my current skill. If you want an overview of my play style I will just tell you.
As a town I am generally more aggressive, while as mafia I am more conservative with what I do. Although I think the play styles would be harder to tell apart, I think a distinct difference which I know I used to make and work to rectify is that as mafia I will be more focused on a few individuals while as town I will focus on many. The reason being is as mafia its harder to create a fake case that you can believe in and believing the viability of what you are telling people is the most key part to any game as mafia. When you are lying you have to know your story has as few holes and logical inconsistencies as possible. If you look at Merc mafia and read how I played I made sure not to mimic previous play styles and played hyper aggressive, although that could be attributed to the fact that Annul/LD teaming up would of lead to our demise. If you read what I wrote from my perspective I was much more coherent than Annul and my points kind of stuck together and I rarely attempted to make huge jumps. Only at the end did it become much harder to keep my story but that was due to the complexity of the game and the hassle that contracts created.
I think the biggest tell I have as mafia is my behavior on AIM. I generally obsess over mafia games and read it for hours and hours each day until I die. As town I tend to post whenever I feel like it but as mafia I only post when I feel it is necessary. IE: I will feign inactivity to avoid commenting on a situation, or make sure I wait until its too late to reverse a stupid band wagon. Usually if I do the latter I will purposely try to divert the lynch to a team mate that way if either one of us dies it makes the other look better via wifom.
Now as far as this game goes, I am honestly just tired and I know this game is going to be a fucking shitstorm if you guys haven't learned ANYTHING from previous games. If you took NOTHING from Salem, if you took NOTHING from PYP3 then this game is going to be fucking gay as shit and we are going to get RAPED. Let me explain why.
In those games people flipped and eventually you kind of got an idea if someone was full of shit after 3 mislynches, but in this you don't know if something is a mislynch so you can have one asshole doing clue and behavioral analysis killing town left and right and you don't know if hes right or wrong. If everyone is focusing on that one person to champion them to victory you are going to doom us. Especially if the mayor is mafia. The ONLY way to confirm if any mafia have died is with 2 census reports. One today on mafia count and one somewhere down the line. The problem with that is if the mafia gets mayor we have no idea if we are on the right track and could easily get manipulated into having another game where we have 9/10 mislynches.
Here is how we counter this. Everyone fucking analyze everything. Do not EVER let one person do all the work, to win this game the town has to keep analyzing. Everyone has to analyze and we have to decide what has the most merit as a collective. If you have a few people doing analysis we will lose in this game faster and harder then in any other set up. Seriously guys. This isn't a fucking boot camp, this isn't some let us baby you set up. In this set up if you are lazy, if you fuck up, you lose us the game. This game requires an effort from EVERY townie to actually win and fuck if we get a mafia mayor then we are fucked. If any single person seems to be trying to take control of the town and who we lynch that is suspicious because channeling our lynches on the thoughts of one person who we can't prove there worth is going to make us die.
Now to business. I ain't fucking mafia. If you make me the mayor I will do everything I can to ensure that we stay organized and have EVERYONE doing analysis. If you aren't going to put work into analysis then you need to get the fuck out of the game the express way, via death. Anyone who is scared to contribute is most likely mafia not wanting to be suspicious and if you refuse to contribute you should be considered top of the list suspicious. Now onto why I think the other candidates suck.
DoctorHelvetica is okay and organizing the town but he ALWAYS takes a too central role and runs around in circles chasing his own tail until the mafia decide to put him out of his misery. Look at Salem. If this game is played like Salem where everyone just agrees on what one person says we are going to lose, and we are going to lose hard. DoctorHelvetica has never proven himself able to handle the town without putting too much focus on himself. The worst part about this is his town play that I have seen for mayor would play so hard against us, and if hes mafia he just has to do the same shit and keep the town tunneled and making bad decisions and we are boned. DoctorHelvetica will be an EXTREMELY dangerous mayor to have one way or the other and he is not worth the risk.
Kavdragon I feel a lot better about. He's a pretty level headed guy in the games I played with him and as he showed in Merc Mafia hes not above manipulating the shit out of people. Although he is a nice guy and I don't know if he could be direct enough to yell at people and get people killed when it comes down to it. Can you berate someone until they contribute and do what you want? Can you do the analysis and the follow through to take down scum? I know Kavdragon is decent but I don't think he has the experience like I do for this position. Although I don't believe he is mafia. I haven't seen him play a game as mafia yet and he seems like the cautious type who wouldn't put himself out there without experience. What I mean by that is if Kav was mafia I think he would play more layed back because hes not as familiar with what to do, while if he was town he would be more outgoing and confident in his play and run for mayor.
Those are my current thoughts on the election. I obviously think I am better qualified than anyone else for the position and I think I am our best bet to victory. Overall though the best chance for victory is in the towns collective efforts. This is the game where all the mafia has to do is shut down the active contributors and win because we are in the dark. However if the whole town is active that plan doesn't exist for them. The only way to win this game is through overwhelming effort and activity. Lets the last game I play show that TL town's have learned something from bootcamp, let this game show that even when a game forces the town to use every ounce of cunning we have to win that we can step up and do it.
Let this be the game where the town overcame the mafia.
Here we are, let's break it down. "As a town I am generally more aggressive, while as mafia I am more conservative with what I do." :/ grave digging. I'd say you are being extremely conservative this game, when you propose your lynch based on when a person you know isn't supposed to be posting, and praising your opposing candidate for his levelheadedness.
A summary of this post: I am a smart player. You will be able to see that I am not mafia through my arguments. I am tired. Everyone WILL analyze, or we lose. Dr. H is to tunneled in his thought process, dangerous mayor no matter his alignment. Kav is good, but has no experience for this sort of thing. I am the obvious choice. Let's all analyze! FOR SCOTLAND!
I believe that to be accurate.
On January 24 2011 16:12 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: Oh and as for my general apathy, I am just tired as hell lately. When does the day end anyway?
Duuuuude.... if you tired you could just sit back and not run for mayor. I mean maybe you honestly think there is nothing to analyze?
On January 24 2011 16:04 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:Show nested quote +On January 24 2011 14:11 LSB wrote:On January 24 2011 13:52 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:On January 24 2011 13:48 Amber[LighT] wrote:On January 24 2011 13:46 DoctorHelvetica wrote: If I'm elected mayor I won't pick only people who volunteered. I will pick the two people I am most confident are town. And I will not reveal to the town who I picked. You have to: Mayor You are the elected leader of the town. Elections will take place on day 1. When elected , you will publicly select two bodyguards to protect you for the rest of the game. While bodyguards are alive, you cannot be targeted by night hits or the roleblocker. Role checks on you will return “Mayor”. This mechanic seems stupid to me, I dunno why the two BG's are publicly announced as 100% truth. Annoying as shit and removes any skill from the role. There's no flip, so the mayor would be practically invincible if the bodyguards weren't reveled. God, I am so dumb. I can't believe I didn't put those together lol
While it is a mistake, it is reassuring for RoL's sake. He is tired apparently, it's not just an excuse. While I am trying to get over my information fix, knowing the game you are playing is the first step in the process of being a good townie. This is a bit hypocritical for me to talk about, so I won't say anymore.
On January 24 2011 13:48 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:Show nested quote +On January 24 2011 13:12 Nemesis wrote:On January 24 2011 13:04 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:On January 24 2011 13:02 Nemesis wrote: Let's get on to mayor discussion, who are our current candidates besides kavdragon? Me Kavdragon, and DrH iirc. Hmm so far I don't really like any of the candidates. RoL didn't bring much of a platform. DrH, uggh how many times has he lead us astray us town leader? Kavdragon, I don't really like the things he is advocating for. Anyone else want to run for mayor? My platform would be self explanatory. I am a decent scumhunter, a high n1 hit target. That's about it. either you want me as a leader or you don't. Either way I am fine with it. I don't consider it mattering that much which is why I didn't go all out with mspaint and shit.
Smart play here but at the same time... As mafia I would kinda expect RoL not to push the envelope in trying to get the win. As town, I think he would normally give a rebuttal on a superior way to do what Kav is doing, and carry through with it. On other players, I would say it is vice-versa, but I believe this doesn't give RoL leeway if it isn't a small tell for him in particular.
On January 26 2011 13:06 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: Oh well, so I lost the election. Kav what are you going to do with Census?
I'm going to go ahead and say RoL is not active at this time, and I'm reluctant to give anybody shit, for what they do in their time. I hope to see he is rested up and comes back with less invigorating speeches about analyzing, and more analyses that inspire analysis.
That said, RoL fits the glove. I stand by what I said about mafia having a candidate no matter what. 5 mafia means RoL would have about 4 votes. I dismissed him because of his low numbers, but then again, he wouldn't have his team "put all their eggs in one basket" to use RoL's own words. He gave Mayor a shot, knowing if he was mayor, he would have a free game. He saw Kav's dedication, knew he was town with superior numbers and apparently a lot more vitality.
Clue linking
I believe RoL was the mafia candidate, and my good friend kita was nice enough to find this first.
On January 27 2011 11:17 kitaman27 wrote:Show nested quote +RoL's Profile Two roads diverged in a yellow wood, And sorry I could not travel both And be one traveler, long I stood And looked down one as far as I could To where it bent in the undergrowth;
And both that morning equally lay In leaves no step had trodden black. Oh, I kept the first for another day! Yet knowing how way leads on to way, I doubted if I should ever come back. I shall be telling this with a sigh Somewhere ages and ages hence: Two roads diverged in a wood, and I— I took the one less traveled by, And that has made all the difference. Show nested quote +Every city has its dark place, the area that no one in their right mind will go. Ours is the forest, the woods that loom in the center. Away from the campfire, away from the tents, away from the city. The thick, ancient trunks loom, the undisturbed bark hard as stone, the tangled roots cloying at uncareful limbs. No one knows what happens there, and certainly no one would venture there in the night.
But tonight, the forest stirs. Its solitude is intruded upon. First thing that comes to mind points to RoL. Murder scene could be the road less traveled.
Something.
On January 27 2011 11:28 darmousseh wrote:I quickly glanced through all of the of the profiles and the only hint i could find was in RoL's profile which would correspond to the story
Closer, let me elaborate. RoL's poems are taken from R. Frost and L. Hughes respectively. Both poem might have pertinence to the initial day 1 clue.
Cue the clash of lightning. Play the roar of thunder. And make sure there is a shower of rain.
It was just a movie scene, just something from a scary film. A bad dream. This couldn’t be happening.
I should explain.
Hughes quote about dreams seems subtle, but a dream deterred that festers? Maybe an english major can enlighten me.
From what my memory tells me, Robert Frost is famous for his descriptions. An example. + Show Spoiler +Tree at my window, window tree, My sash is lowered when night comes on; But let there never be curtain drawn Between you and me. Vague dream-head lifted out of the ground, And thing next most diffuse to cloud, Not all your light tongues talking aloud Could be profound. But tree, I have seen you taken and tossed, And if you have seen me when I slept, You have seen me when I was taken and swept And all but lost. That day she put our heads together, Fate had her imagination about her, Your head so much concerned with outer, Mine with inner, weather.
I think day 1 clues need to be vague, so if I was to make a vague clue, I would take the author of one of RoL's poems and base it on what he would make a clue. If Frost doesn't write about trees and nature, then I am homeowner. The first part of day 1 and Meapak's death are fine examples of something like this.
+ Show Spoiler +Some nights I thirst for real blood
Every city has its dark place, the area that no one in their right mind will go. Ours is the forest, the woods that loom in the center. Away from the campfire, away from the tents, away from the city. The thick, ancient trunks loom, the undisturbed bark hard as stone, the tangled roots cloying at uncareful limbs. No one knows what happens there, and certainly no one would venture there in the night.
But tonight, the forest stirs. Its solitude is intruded upon.
For real knives
The noises inside are a mystery. The scampering in the bush, a deer? That blood-curdling scream, nothing an animal could make.
For real cries
And there in the clearing, in the moonlight, Meapak_Ziph runs at full speed, jumping over roots, snapping aside branches. And close behind him a black shape, only a blur in the darkness, gaining, about to grab, only a hand-length away...
And then the flash of steel from real guns
Meapak_Ziph falls with a grunt to the ground, his face contorts in surprise, horror, and pain, and then... silence. Everything is still but for the fountain of black blood sprouting from his body.
The shadow is gone. Meapak_Ziph dies alone.
This whole section in a forest is just about what I would expect. I have no comment for the bolded words referring to darkness and black. I am not certain clues would be split up, but the drying blood could very well point to what darm said.
So, to summarize what I have learned.
ANALYSIS RoL is a tired candidate who needs to run for mayor. Speaks of what town should do, but hasn't supplied of anything yet. He loses and does his best to lose as little face as possible. INFORMATION Run a campaign to deny town mayor. I'm certain mafia would have given it a shot. Try to make it legitimate looking and not pour to many resources into it. CLUES Poems mostly linking to Frost's forests and nature, and Hughes dreams. Possibly drying blood.
I believe RoL is mafia.
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On January 27 2011 13:12 Kavdragon wrote:Show nested quote +On January 27 2011 13:05 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: I was roleblocked last night. Anyone going to counterclaim? Not that there can't be two role blockers, but it does make things more interesting. (Actually, Has anyone seen a setup with 2 role blockers?)
We know a RB is in the game, and I doubt there would be 2. I'm sure RB can refrain from using there ability. If RoL is mafia, I don't see how this would help him, as you should give RB a shot, and this doesn't confirm much about him.
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On January 27 2011 13:26 kitaman27 wrote: @bum, I question the timing of your analysis. With exception of the clues, all that information was available pre-election. Yet until now, you have insisted kavdragon was the more scummy of the two. Why wait until now to jump on your target?
-Your good friend kita
I wanted to post it in conjunction with any clues I could connect to RoL, which people started to find before I even started the analysis. I did not make the connection before tonight, but putting that analysis together really gave me a solid lead on an already stated notion of mine. I even put my vote on RoL, so I wasn't planning this. I want to see RoL's response before I put my vote anywhere, and we have 48 hours, so I will give another tomorrow on Kav, and I forsee good things in his future. You should try this analysis stuff, it's pretty enlightening.
-Kita's good friend, Bum
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+ Show Spoiler +On January 28 2011 01:55 darmousseh wrote:Ok so with kav saying there are 5 mafia, and there being probably 1 SK left, (ON was either an SK or mafia, doesn't really matter). That means 2 kp for mafia and 1 kill for SK. What probably happened. SK and mafia happen to pick the same target. SK ends up being the killer. Read this carefully. Show nested quote +And then another persons enters the clearing. He is careful, disturbing nothing, as quiet as the trees surrounding him. A coward, he hid in the shadows witnessing it all, doing nothing. He gazes down at the body of Meapak, the drying blood staining his feet. He shudders, and continues on.
Really fills my mind
I followed TheAldo. And as I ran my knife across his throat, no one was there to help him. I read this as, SK kills meapak. mafia tries to kill meapak, but SK already did it so he just shrudders and continues on. Mafia kills thealdo. There is no indication that the person that witnessed the incident and thealdo are the same person. From my reading of the story, they are probably different people. From the clues that have been posted, so far here are my conclusions. RebirthOfLegend is an SK. Nemesis is scum. My reasoning for RoL being an SK is that he has been apprehensive about everything and initially didn't vote himself as mayor. The reason he ended up deciding to try for mayor at all is to prevent a scum from being mayor since he thought there was a possibility that kav was scum. He also is very active so far and has helped more with analysis than a mafia would, but there clues against him are present in the story and he can't deny it. Since he is acting on his own, he has very little support from mafia players and is kinda being surrounded. If he was truly scum, then he would have probably put more effort into becoming mayor. Nemsis, then by elimination, is the scum. He is desperately trying to combat all information we gather in clues. Here are some recent posts. Show nested quote + sigh, do I even have to point out why this analysis is crap?
Fine, I guess I will. First of all, the clues are divided into two parts: the two seperate deaths....
Show nested quote +And fine, if you think the clue leads to him, and want him lynched for the first day. Don't you already have kavdragon's support? Why discuss it further if kav has already decided to lynch him? Show nested quote +I don't really have time to delve hardcore into this day's clue right now, but let me just give you what I could find in a short amount of time. Almost all of his posts have a negative attitude towards the value of clues and the value of things which would help townies get more information about SKs. He has provided 1 post which attempted to find clues on the killer and in that post he said Show nested quote +To people doing clue analysis, I would suggest to take a look at Night 0's clues. Since there are a lot of crap analysis going on right now. The clues from night 0 are the "duct tape" which was straight from Qatol's quote. The clues are pretty straightforward. Don't try and look for things which might be related to something in people's profile. Yet he is basically the only one proposing that the analysis done so far was crap. Almost all of the analysis so far seems very spot on and is confirmed by multiple players. Therefore, for this lynch I propose we lynch nemesis since he is scum and tomorrow we can check the # of mafia to see if we are right. If there is only 1 SK, which I propose is RebirthOfLegend, then there is no harm in letting him live 1 more day since we are likely to get more clues after the next night and we can doubley confirm him and confirm that it is indeed a SK via # of kills. Also the clues pointing towards RoL aren't as decisive as the ones pointing to nemesis. The reason to vote RoL tonight would be to lower the # of SK to 0. If we want, a vig can hit RoL, but I think we should save the Vig for later so we can doubly check to make sure he is actually the SK.
I don't think RoL would be SK, just for the reason that it is EXTREMELY counter-intuitive. You bring attention to yourself, whether through getting hit, or making yourself a potential lynch. I don't see why RoL would decide to off-handedly run for mayor as SK.
Again, making an analysis to go with your clues helps your argument, and let's you see if this person really is non-town. Even small FoS things like inactivity and discussing something that won't go anywhere become fairly damning in the presence of clues.
I'll try to give Nemesis a shot, but RoL wasn't talking out of his ass when he said 2-3 players shouldn't be doing everything. Though I think he said it just to say something.
The Qatol clue was meant to be found immediately. The first clues should hint at parts of profiles, but be fairly general. If you find a lot of clues on the same person, but they are all on different parts of his profile, it gives a greater chance that one of them is an actual clue.
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Nemesis # of Posts: 19 Not inactive, but definitely not one of the most active
Analysis
On January 23 2011 11:40 Nemesis wrote:Show nested quote +On January 23 2011 11:39 Kavdragon wrote:On January 23 2011 11:33 Nemesis wrote: You say that there are clues in the day post, but it does not point to any current mafia, so what does it point to then?
Alright, it's time to get some activity going in here. What do you guys think about lynching inactives in the first day?
Although, there is only a slim chance of us catching mafia, it would encourage people to post more and the more that mafia post, the greater the chance that they will slip up. Lynching inactives is a tactic to start a discussion. I don't think that we will need to do this, because we will have clues to look at, and a mayor to elect. That should be starter enough to get the information we need to lynch scum. No, I am not doing this only to start discussion. I want to encourage activity and make sure that no one lurks in this game.
Good sentiments but not much substance.
On January 24 2011 13:02 Nemesis wrote: Let's get on to mayor discussion, who are our current candidates besides kavdragon?
Good sentiments but not much substance.
On January 24 2011 13:12 Nemesis wrote:Show nested quote +On January 24 2011 13:04 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:On January 24 2011 13:02 Nemesis wrote: Let's get on to mayor discussion, who are our current candidates besides kavdragon? Me Kavdragon, and DrH iirc. Hmm so far I don't really like any of the candidates. RoL didn't bring much of a platform. DrH, uggh how many times has he lead us astray us town leader? Kavdragon, I don't really like the things he is advocating for. Anyone else want to run for mayor?
Wants another candidate, apparently. Perhaps I can detach him from RoL?
On January 24 2011 13:28 Nemesis wrote:Show nested quote +On January 24 2011 13:24 DoctorHelvetica wrote:On January 24 2011 13:12 Nemesis wrote:On January 24 2011 13:04 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:On January 24 2011 13:02 Nemesis wrote: Let's get on to mayor discussion, who are our current candidates besides kavdragon? Me Kavdragon, and DrH iirc. Hmm so far I don't really like any of the candidates. RoL didn't bring much of a platform. DrH, uggh how many times has he lead us astray us town leader? Kavdragon, I don't really like the things he is advocating for. Anyone else want to run for mayor? Once. I was only scum mayor once and it was my first game of my mafia about a year ago. I am not talking about you as a mayor, I mean as a town leader in general. I mean take a look at Salem mafia. I think that you are still a better candidate than kavdragon though, and if no one else steps up I will vote for you. And Almost 1500 post, not sure if I can do any long post for my 1500th post as we have only gotten started, but don't expect me to post for a while.
Bad blood with Dr. H but may put his vote on.
On January 24 2011 13:34 Nemesis wrote: Ok, this is my last post for a while, the thing that bothers me about your campaign is you hold the mayor as an extremely important role that making the mayor survive is more important than killing scum.
It would be well worth it if you can trade the mayor for 1 scum, it would be even better if you can trade for 2 but that's highly unlikely.
Also, making greens volunteer to be bodyguard is such an ANTI-TOWN PLAN. It would let mafia be able to narrow down who is blue from those who did not volunteer.
Well I'm off for tonight.
Agree with green volunteering (though you would just need two, but it would be better to get one vet claim instead) but I disagree with the mayor part. I'm not sure I need to reiterate my reasons why.
On January 25 2011 08:26 Nemesis wrote:We stilil have plenty of time to change votes. Woot, looks like RoL is now seriously running RoL for mayor everyone! And I seriously don't want to have kavdragon for mayor. He is pushing for a scummy plan right from the beginning with the bodyguard volunteering. It has already been covered by multiple people why that is a bad idea. Even if only 4 people volunteered, that still narrows down the list of blues. And there is still the same chance of picking mafia as before(mafia can just volunteer). There is no advantage to town whatsover to volunteering bodyguard.
I suppose now that Dr. H went out, RoL is the next best choice. Not convinced it connects the two of them if we are looking at Nemesis' last posts.
On January 25 2011 13:02 Nemesis wrote: It's day 1, and I would rather not talk about clues. Clues are rather vague until we get the hang of it. It is just derailing the thread here. We should talk about the mayoral elections and what they plan to do?
That is who are you going to lynch/plans whatever.
and RoL since you are back, how are you planning on choosing your bodyguard, and who are you going to lynch first day?
Understandable, shows us why he doesnt want Kav, who is lynching based on clues and feels they are very vague atm. Doesn't give an alternate plan though.
On January 25 2011 13:09 Nemesis wrote:Show nested quote +On January 25 2011 13:01 Kavdragon wrote: A word on policy: Should the Mason contact the mayor night one? This would ensure that masons survive the night, though it's unlikely that the mason, and his convertee are both killed. Other than that, the mayor would then be able to entrust any other information with the original mason. (For instance, my role, any information on blues I have, and vise versa.)
Note that while the Mason would be a confirmed townie, the mayor would not be confirmed. Thus the flow of information should only go to the mason, who should not pass it to anyone else unless extreme conditions warrant it. Perhaps with time, the mayor will build enough trust that he can be entrusted with information that the mason has, but I'm not going to assume that.
This seems the best plan to me, but I'm looking at it from the mayor's position. Anyone have any problems with this? I'm sorry but this just sounds bad(once again). You are basically putting everything into the hands of the mayor. It is not likely that mafia will find masons during the first day. The disadvantages far outweights the advantages of this plan.
Not a bad idea, I'd call it more neutral. Mason should be recruiting likely blues and confirming himself to them, and when he has found one, he should recruit a speaker, and the mayor would usually be a good choice considering he was voted that position by town, so he is already a trustworthy source. In fact, I'm not sure if we should trust other claims other then from the mayor, because it is too simple to falseclaim.
Nemesis again doesn't give a better alternate, which he should.
On January 25 2011 13:24 Nemesis wrote:Show nested quote +On January 25 2011 13:15 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: Kav, my entire platform is not to put all your eggs in one potentially scum basket. By revolving everything around the mayor you are dooming the town. Stop with the stupidity.
I am leaning towards Amber[LighT] for my Day 1 lynch. Why Amber[Light]? kitaman, I would rather not depend on clues over post analysis. And fine, if you think the clue leads to him, and want him lynched for the first day. Don't you already have kavdragon's support? Why discuss it further if kav has already decided to lynch him?
Again with anti-clue debate, bothers me that he isn't generating other discussion himself.
On January 26 2011 09:26 Nemesis wrote:Show nested quote +On January 26 2011 09:24 bumatlarge wrote: Ok then, Stupid idea. Crossing my fingers on Kav. Mostly my fault for not being here for a bit. Or you can always vote RoL
>_> and I did. The thing to note is he did not comment on what I had said, but I suppose he thought he would be just "chiming in" on how bad my RNG plan was. Ugh.
On January 26 2011 09:26 Nemesis wrote:Show nested quote +On January 26 2011 09:24 bumatlarge wrote: Ok then, Stupid idea. Crossing my fingers on Kav. Mostly my fault for not being here for a bit. Or you can always vote RoL
Gotta support your reasons mate.
On January 26 2011 20:57 Nemesis wrote:Show nested quote +On January 26 2011 14:33 LunarDestiny wrote: But if Kav tells town about how many SK are there, it will help mafia as well.
If Kav only checks mafia every night, then it will only benefit town and SK. But I doubt SK threatens town more than mafia threatens town. And how will that help mafia as well? Mafia can already guess the number of SK's from the # of KP per night.
Truth.
On January 26 2011 21:02 Nemesis wrote: Kav, I wouldn't judge bum yet as scum. The way he is appearing to me is more of an impulsive townie as in he doesn't think before he post, and then realizes that what he was suggesting was bad.
Still I would like to see his response.
Aw, he will always be town in my heart. Doesn't mean he is though, red like to cut the strings to other people fairly quickly if they see an outcome ahead of time. If I got lynched, and then the next day we find mafia umbers are the same, nemesis can say itoldyaso.
On January 27 2011 14:46 Nemesis wrote:Show nested quote +On January 27 2011 14:16 BrownBear wrote:If anyone took a hit, now would be your time to claim. Also, right now I think the most obvious clue was pointed out already by LD: On January 27 2011 11:34 LunarDestiny wrote:Some nights I thirst for real blood
For real knives
For real cries
And then the flash of steel from real guns
In real life
Really fills my mind
You can’t hideNemesisArcher's Reality Marble: Reality Marble"I am the bone of my sword. Steel is my body, and fire is my blood. I have created over a thousand blades. Unknown to death. Nor known to life. Have withstood pain to create many weapons. Yet, these hands will never hold anything. So as I pray, 'Unlimited Blade Works'." That's a pretty damning point directly to Nemesis. I do agree that we shouldn't lynch based purely off of clues though. Right now, who I'm thinking of voting for is either Nem or bum. I have voted for Nemesis for the time being, but that is definitely open to change depending on the situation. sigh, do I even have to point out why this analysis is crap? Fine, I guess I will. First of all, the clues are divided into two parts: the two seperate deaths. That means that the clues in the first night points to two different people. Now if you look at the statements that he took from the clues, those are spread out all over the place in the day post. They can be found in both deaths. So unless you are saying that both clues point to me, then that part of your clue analysis is crap. Second of all, this one is just a bit of speculation on how clues work, but the italicized parts and the bold parts feel a bit like red herring. If you look at Night 0's clue, none of the actual clues are found within the italicized parts. Third of all, that kind of feels forced. Well I don't necessarily blame you since you probably don't really understand what my quote is from, and what a reality marble is. A reality marble is magic that forces the reality in your mind to come to life in the real world. So using real as a clue to point to me is rather farfetched. And I just had to facepalm when you bolded really. That just kind of seems too forced. To people doing clue analysis, I would suggest to take a look at Night 0's clues. Since there are a lot of crap analysis going on right now. The clues from night 0 are the "duct tape" which was straight from Qatol's quote. The clues are pretty straightforward. Don't try and look for things which might be related to something in people's profile. For example, someone has a picture of a character from a movie. Then there was something in the clue that could be related to that movie but to a different character in the movie. Mods won't go that far to make the clues as vague as possible. Remember that the clue is directly related to the Profile, not second-hand relation. I don't really have time to delve hardcore into this day's clue right now, but let me just give you what I could find in a short amount of time. Show nested quote +And there in the clearing, in the moonlight, Meapak_Ziph runs at full speed, jumping over roots, snapping aside branches. And close behind him a black shape, only a blur in the darkness, gaining, about to grab, only a hand-length away... From Gmarshal's profile As for the second kill, all I could find so far was this: Show nested quote +I followed TheAldo. And as I ran my knife across his throat, no one was there to help him. From Kitaman's Profile: "Keeper Yes, my lord; But yet I cannot help you." "Surveyor 'If,' quoth he, 'I for this had been committed, As, to the Tower, I thought, I would have play'd The part my father meant to act upon The usurper Richard; who, being at Salisbury, Made suit to come in's presence; which if granted, As he made semblance of his duty, would Have put his knife to him.'" Now obviously I haven't read all of kitaman's profile so I'm not really sure if I'm taking those out of context. I'll read it when I have the time, but if someone who knows the story there can help me if anything could be related to the clues, I would appreciate it. And of course lynching based on clues alone would be stupid unless the clues are pretty damning, so I will hold out on my vote for now.
Defends himself. Even though it points to two different parts, it still makes it more likely then if there was one clue. One could be misleading, while the other true. It would be better to find a clue in both parts though. Mentions Qatols clue, which RoL did as well. Qatol's clue was meant to be found, while the clues the first few days are purposefully vague and inconclusive. That's why I agree with him that clues not to be a selling point at first.
Finally some clue analysis, but only when he is under pressure.
Overall, we see his history hasn't done Nemesis any favors.
Clues
I am just going to use what Lunar has found without making it my own. We need more people to contribute to this.
On January 27 2011 11:34 LunarDestiny wrote:Some nights I thirst for real blood
For real knives
For real cries
And then the flash of steel from real guns
In real life
Really fills my mind
You can’t hideNemesisArcher's Reality Marble: Reality Marble"I am the bone of my sword. Steel is my body, and fire is my blood. I have created over a thousand blades. Unknown to death. Nor known to life. Have withstood pain to create many weapons. Yet, these hands will never hold anything. So as I pray, 'Unlimited Blade Works'."
On January 27 2011 11:41 LunarDestiny wrote: Most clues of Nemesis
Some nights I thirst for real blood
And then the flash of steel from real guns
"I am the bone of my sword. Steel is my body, and fire is my blood. I have created over a thousand blades. Unknown to death. Nor known to life. Have withstood pain to create many weapons. Yet, these hands will never hold anything. So as I pray, 'Unlimited Blade Works'."
And we should attempt to fit in things from the first day as well.
Where am I? What’s happening? The last thing I remember... our glasses raised, filled with dark red wine, the color of blood... a toast, a sip... Fairly weak, as we assume Nemsis' pic is a vampire, and the bloded black words don't help the "DarkFlameNightHunter" either.
Our captain, Foolishness stowed away his gun, fell to his knees and clutched the nurse’s head. I listened as in between sobs he choked out what happened
“The man... the man was following the nurse. I... You must avenge her death. He is not alone... I will be their next target. They will come after me next and… Mi Dio!”
I picked up the dropped switchblade, pressed it to the captains throat, and sawed.
"What do you do when there is an evil you cannot defeat by just means? Do you stain your hands with evil to destroy evil, or do you remain steadfastly just and righteous even if it means surrendering to evil?In my case, I commit evil to destroy the greater evil!" Lelouch Lamperouge
The nearest thing, though the post could mean other things. For this, the narrator must be good and he had to believe the captain killed Korynne. You could argue that the captain is good and the narrator was evil all along. But why would it start out that the narrator is talking about the voyage as cursed? Perhaps he knew it would be cursed because of what he would have to do. Or it's what he figured out. Still weak I believe.
Summary ANALYSIS Lurking player who poses a lot of questions and obviously has an opinion about things but doesn't go into much detail about why he has them. INFORMATION Did not like the candidates. Eventually picked RoL over Kav. I do not believe Nemesis and RoL are both red, but it is very possible. No other info on him. CLUES First day clues I found feel very weak, and I would dismiss them initially. Second day clues LD found are much stronger, and can give the first clues more solid ground to base on.
I believe Nemesis is an SK. It would still make sense if he was mafia.
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Wow, hopefully it picks up a bit before the lynch. I'm more confident in my read on RoL then on nemesis, who I'm kinda torn on being SK or not.
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let me make this clear
profiling>analysis>clues in terms of where I am FoSing RoL. Not in general what is stronger. but for RoL in this situation. The profile is for my belief that mafia will take a stab at running for mayor everytime. This isn't based on the metagame or anything, its strictly that this set-up makes this obvious. The analysis comes next for the reason RoL is apathetic. As if he needs to run. I think if he was town with the same mediocre drive, we would not have run. (dont get me wrong. we needed candidates but we are assuming candidates would provide above average activity). Clues are last. I think they are much weaker then what has been found on other people. But these clues are right. becuase RoL is red. Ive looked for other connections and this is all I found. The clues arent confirming the profile, the profile iconfirms the clues.
I have no comment on RoLs comparison of BB and myself. BB sees it as analysis>clues>profile, if i am not mistaken. I think we all know BB is prone to give people a chance
nem is a much weaker, cles could be off, and he jst may be among the hordes of lurking townies. Maybe we have a lot blues. I think its likely given how mafia/sk favored this setup is.
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Well holy shit. It's rare for modkills to be mafia, but I'm still sure we got one. I think it's pretty obvious that kav will be checking mafia numbers again?
Mr. Zergling had some pretty strong clues though. I'm expecting a lot of people to start coming forward with the "Oh yeah RoL scum for sure" when we are bound to find out.
By the way nemesis, my analysis of you was specifically saying you were SK and not mafia. I dont hope too hard with clues, and my analysis may be off, as you cant pin SK early without more information.
but i am fairly certain nemesis is not mafia. HE IS AN SK or town.
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On January 29 2011 15:35 Barundar wrote: Call me sceptic, but considering RoL would most likely be the godfather if mafia, I find it highly unlikly that we hit red when the votes where so close.
It's very likely we just lost a bunch of townies. Please hit mafia SK?
Can you phrase that first part again? I think you are saying RoL is the only likely mafia? Which I agree with, but you just worded it funny. But I'm not sure if it was a slip or not...
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The only thing I could think of is to determine whos kills are which, and I think we did an OK job figuring that out for night 1. No need to claim unless someone claims your hit, and there is no other mention of another coming to the hit after.
Oh and can someone save a vig for night 3 please small request
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On January 30 2011 05:19 Kavdragon wrote:Show nested quote +On January 30 2011 04:14 darmousseh wrote: I think after this night we will get a ton more information. Serial killers have to kill so if we didn't lynch the SK yesterday, then there will be more clues pointing towards that person and if we did lynch the SK then yay town. No, mods said that SK will NOT get clues pointing to them every night. It would be really unfair if they did...
what really? So how does that work? sometimes it just says someone dies? will it look like clues? red herrings?
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