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Here's my bodyguard-picking 2 cents. I've gone through and looked at every idea proposed so far that I could find, plus a couple of my own I added. Note that for this, we're assuming that selecting two scum is impossible and could only happen by blind luck, so we're aiming for two green bodyguards as our optimal scenario unless specified otherwise.
Option 1: RNG: We RNG two bodyguards, who then accept. Upside: impossible for mafia or SK to affect results somehow Downside: No way to affect what roles are picked, makes the 1 red/1 green BG scenario far more likely. Verdict: Let's not do this. It's just stupid, relying on luck to save our asses.
Option 2: Greenclaim: Have two greens volunteer, they are chosen as bodyguards. Upside: If it works, we get two green bodyguards, enough to keep mayor alive for at least another cycle. Downside: Reds can claim green easily to screw it up. Verdict: Also not something we should be doing. In a perfect world where there were no reds, it would work out okay. Of course, in a perfect world where there were no reds, we would have already won.
Option 3: Blueclaim: Two blues claim, they are chosen as bodyguards. Upside: Not a whole lot. Downside: Reds can still claim to mess it up, it paints a target on two valuable blues. Verdict: LOL dear god no.
Option 4: Vetclaim: Two Veterans claim, they are chosen as bodyguards. Upside: Vets are tough to kill, make excellent bodyguards. Essentially make mayor invulnerable for at least 3-4 cycles. Downside: Reds can STILL claim to mess it up (and they will.) Vets more useful hidden amongst the town, to soak hits. No guarantee this setup has two vets. Verdict: If it wasn't for the fact that reds can claim, I'd be in support of this idea. I personally think vets would be more useful ensuring we have census for basically the entire game than sitting in the silent majority, hoping they can soak up a hit. However, there's no way a smart mafia team wouldn't have a goon claim vet, with no way to prove/disprove it, and that's a 66% chance we run into the 1 town-1 scum setup. So no.
Option 5: Mayoral preference: Mayor picks his bodyguards, they accept. Upside: Kav/RoL are both good players, can probably select two greens. Downside: Kav/RoL aren't infallible, scum mayor can basically screw town over with this by intentionally selecting blues (bluesniping) and making it look accidental when they die, gives all the power to the mayor, something we want to avoid. Verdict: I don't like it, despite Kav kind of softly pushing for it. I'd vote against this plan.
Option 6: The vote: Town votes on who should be bodyguard, Mayor selects those two. Upside: Puts the decision in the hands of the town, meaning if we screw up, we have only ourselves to blame. We can also pool our thoughts to hopefully make the best decision possible. Downside: Scum mayor can again screw this up easily by influencing town discussion. Town is not infallible, in fact far from it. Verdict: The first option I'd actually consider. Still not a great option, but at least it a) gets discussion flowing and b) doesn't let the mayor become an all-powerful role.
Option 7: The Bait-and-Switch: Mayor calls for volunteers for bodyguard/gets town to choose a pool of candidates, then selects from the pool of people who didn't volunteer/weren't chosen. Upside: Prevents scum meddling (assuming green/blue mayor). Downside: Raises chance that a blue is chosen as bodyguard. No way to actually tell town that this is the plan, so mayor has to be good at explaining himself to avoid lynch. Verdict: A fun little tactic, not that useful, considering most of the volunteers/selection pool will probably be green, so the mayor would be picking from the blues/reds. I don't like it.
Option 8: The SK Gambit: Somehow town gets the SK or SKs to agree to be bodyguards. Upside: To my knowledge, only RED bodyguards won't protect the mayor, so SKs will do their job. Makes mayor essentially invincible. Gets the SKs out in the open, to be lynched at our leisure. Downside: No way in hell the SKs would ever agree to this. Verdict: A fun little pipe-dream that will never be a reality. Still, just imagine.
So... yeah, that's all I could find. Right now, Option 6 looks like our best bet, what do you all say?
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Oops, Option 9: CubEdIn's thing:
On January 26 2011 04:59 CubEdIn wrote: Since there's no way I'll be mayor, here is a kind of system I thought of to bring as many scum/sk into the bodyguards picks.
It's not perfect, but I believe it has a good chance (20-30%ish) of hitting a red in the BGs:
Step 1: RnG 8 people (out of everyone BUT mayor candidates and people who already volunteered as BG), ask them to confirm/veto if they wanna be BG Step 2: Tally up the number of vetos, and lurkers, and mayor candidates (not relevant in this case, since it's just 1-2 other ppl). Step 3: a) If the number of vetos is high (4 or more), pick 2 BGs from the people who veto-ed. Sure, some might be blues, but not all of them, so there's a high chance a Mafia/SK didn't want BG. If it's a scared townie, then you're not losing much anyway. b) If the number of vetos is low (<=3), then pick one BG from that and 1 from lurkers. This is the suckiest scenario, but it still has a decent shot of picking a Maifa out of luck. Technically, 8 ppl is about 1/3 of the players if you exclude candidates and ppl who asked for BG role, so there should be roughly 2 mafia in there. At least one. c) If the number of vetos is 0 (everyone agrees), pick 2 people out of the 8, as mafias would try to blend in, and blues that agreed would be ok (maybe vets or so). __________________________________________________________________________ Of course, this will not work if everyone knows the selection criteria, and it's not even polished. I didn't put too much thought into it as I figured I wouldn't get to use it.
Also, the criteria would've been posted on a different forum or hidden somewhere with a date stamp, so that the town knows you're not just making them up AFTER you know the results of the tally. They would later be revealed to town.
So I know you can't use this (especially since there's no time for people to accept/veto), but maybe I gave you some ideas.
Interesting. I actually kind of like it, but the problem is it puts immediate pressure on the veto-ers. Pretty much the only people who would veto would be a) blues that want to stay hidden like medics/DTs, or b) SKs. So a veto would instantly equal a "HEY! Look at me! I don't want to be in the spotlight!" which would make scum immediately target them. Either they kill off a blue, or they bounce off an SK, then claim vig in the thread and get the SK lynched.
So cool idea, but I have to say no, too risky.
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On January 26 2011 05:30 CubEdIn wrote: Which brings me to your Option 6. It looks ok to me, but do we have time to set up a vote? And even if we do, I think it still helps the Mafia more, because they can push someone they want dead as a a BG and hit two birds with one stone.
Honestly, I hope to god they do this. Part of the point of setting up the vote is to provide a ton of fodder for discussion and analysis, and if we notice that a group of people moved to place someone as a BG who died that night... well, that's something to work with then, isn't it?
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Well, I know I for one would support less well-known, under-the-radar players, for two reasons:
1) They're less likely to get the treatment you mentioned, and 2) They're generally less skilled analysts (not a knock against them, it comes with being new), so their deaths mean less to town.
Of course, not everyone thinks like I do, so your criticism has merit. At the same time, we're getting closer and closer to defaulting to "Kav/RoL just picks the bodyguards" and I really don't like that option.
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Ahh ok, that throws a wrench in that then. Ah well.
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On January 26 2011 08:12 bumatlarge wrote:A scum mayor is the worst scenario by far, regardless of anything else. This means we will never get information on town numbers. False-claims will be rampant, and it will turn into a clue-crapshoot. I want to avoid this at all cost. For this reason, I believe one of RoL or Kav is scum. It's just way to strong an opportunity to pass up. If we are luky, dr.H was the mafia claim, but seeing as how he had relatively no votes, I don't think this is a viable outcome to put your hopes in. I feel we should RNG our mayor :/ as right now we have a 50% shot at picking a scum mayor, or we can take a <25% chance at one. I'd like to hear thoughts. On a BG plan + Show Spoiler +We want to use the census as long as possible because it's basically 1/2 of a coroner everyday. I've been thinking this through and I believe the best option is to splice 4 and 5. Option 4: Vetclaim: Two Veterans claim, they are chosen as bodyguards. Upside: Vets are tough to kill, make excellent bodyguards. Essentially make mayor invulnerable for at least 3-4 cycles. Downside: Reds can STILL claim to mess it up (and they will.) Vets more useful hidden amongst the town, to soak hits. No guarantee this setup has two vets. Verdict: If it wasn't for the fact that reds can claim, I'd be in support of this idea. I personally think vets would be more useful ensuring we have census for basically the entire game than sitting in the silent majority, hoping they can soak up a hit. However, there's no way a smart mafia team wouldn't have a goon claim vet, with no way to prove/disprove it, and that's a 66% chance we run into the 1 town-1 scum setup. So no.
Option 5: Mayoral preference: Mayor picks his bodyguards, they accept. Upside: Kav/RoL are both good players, can probably select two greens. Downside: Kav/RoL aren't infallible, scum mayor can basically screw town over with this by intentionally selecting blues (bluesniping) and making it look accidental when they die, gives all the power to the mayor, something we want to avoid. Verdict: I don't like it, despite Kav kind of softly pushing for it. I'd vote against this plan. We have only 1 veteran claim. We should tell him to refresh the thread to avoid multiple claims. He will be first choice. Yes, mafia can claim it, but I'm not entirely sure mafia wants to which I will get to in a minute. The next BG will be chosen by Mayor. He will make the person is believes is most likely a vanilla town. If he is scum, then we can't be sure what he will do, but a mafia BG leaves a nice SK target on his back. So this would ultimately lead to how badly the other factions want the mayor to die. With 30 people in the game, I believe there are several set-ups. 5 mafia, 2-3SKs. 6-7 mafia, 1-2 SKs 7-8 mafia, No SKs (8 seems highly unlikely) With a rough 25% of players being non-town, BG chosen by mayor has a good chance of being town. With more mafia then veterans, statistically mafia will be more likely to be 2nd BG. I believe SK has no real purpose in trying to kill mayor within first 3 days. As a lone-wolf, he benefits from information brought to town, and he can blend well until medics and vets start getting counted. He can't really fake why he survived a hit if a mafia about to get lynched accuses him of being an SK. Ultimately, SK wants mayor to state how many mafia, SKs, one other blue role to keep his clam safe. SK should be preoccupied with DT and mafia sniping. For this reason, I do not like censusing DTs til later on, so SKs won't feel safe enough to hit mayor. Mafia then will take a stab at non-townie mayor very early on. Medics should take a high-priority in protecting BGs, and if both die and mayor is alive, I don't think you should take it off him.
This could work, I'm not clear on why you don't think mafia will try to falseclaim vet? You never really got to that point, unless I'm missing something.
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On January 26 2011 13:19 Kavdragon wrote: BrownBear: I'm really confused that you went along with Bum's RNG plan as long as you did. You've played a lot and from what I've seen and heard, you should have seen the problems with that plan. At the same time, if you were scum, I think your are experienced enough to have seen that it would be immediately discarded, so that doesn't make sense either.
To be fair, I didn't "go along with it" for a long time. I posted one post being like "eh, whatever, here's a number", then was away for the rest of the day. Hope that answers your questions.
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If anyone took a hit, now would be your time to claim.
Also, right now I think the most obvious clue was pointed out already by LD:
On January 27 2011 11:34 LunarDestiny wrote:Some nights I thirst for real blood
For real knives
For real cries
And then the flash of steel from real guns
In real life
Really fills my mind
You can’t hideNemesisArcher's Reality Marble: Reality Marble"I am the bone of my sword. Steel is my body, and fire is my blood. I have created over a thousand blades. Unknown to death. Nor known to life. Have withstood pain to create many weapons. Yet, these hands will never hold anything. So as I pray, 'Unlimited Blade Works'."
That's a pretty damning point directly to Nemesis. I do agree that we shouldn't lynch based purely off of clues though. Right now, who I'm thinking of voting for is either Nem or bum. I have voted for Nemesis for the time being, but that is definitely open to change depending on the situation.
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On January 28 2011 03:16 Kavdragon wrote: A few mysteries that are left to solve: What other effect(s) does the black liquid have? What is the real goal of sending 31 people to an island, infected by this virus? In normal games it is a common theme that the blood runs an alignment matching color. Is the virus what causes people to not flip? If so, is there a way to cure it?
I think it might be a riff off the fact that since people do not flip, their names are turning up black in the mod posts, hence the "black" blood?
Or, since a lot of the posts are from the perspective of the SK, maybe it's a reference to his status as a 3rd party character?
I don't think the island or the virus really have any effect beyond adding backstory, though.
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On January 28 2011 07:16 Kavdragon wrote: The problem with DT claiming in this situation is that we have nothing to check him by. If he says someone is mafia, there's no way we can tell for sure.
Also, we don't know if we have more than one medic in this setup.
That's actually a good point. However, using logic we should be able to deduce at least a decent guess as to how many blues we have. For example, a rule of thumb with most games played is to give town 1 fewer medics than there are KP. Assuming SIN is telling the truth, we have 3 KP in this setup (Mafia probably has 2, SK has 1), so logically, given that knowledge as well as the number of players in the game, we should have 2 medics.
Problem is, we don't know how many of them have died yet. For all we know, Meapak and TheAldo were both our medics (very unlikely, I know, but still.)
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On January 28 2011 13:04 Coagulation wrote: Kav looks like hes doing a good job so far he has covered all the bases i have seen. But dont worry i do got a list of you scummy fuckers its just not time to start shoving them down everyones fucking throat yet
I would disagree with you. I'd love to see that list right now.
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On January 28 2011 13:07 kitaman27 wrote:Show nested quote +On January 28 2011 12:56 GMarshal wrote: Hence I think we should pressure and, if we don't get satisfactory results, lynch them. For now, I'm going to vote Coagulation , I may switch over to another equaly inactive player later, but for now Coagulation's pro inactive attitude seems highly suspicious to me. Despite me poking at coag, I still think we should focus the lynch between nemesis and RoL rather than spread it out between a bunch of people. RoL has been laying low relative to how he started and nemesis hasn't really defended himself adequately either.
I'm more concerned about RoL laying low than Nemesis' clue connections. We can analyze how the clues connect to Nem all we want, but it's very strange that RoL was reasonably active for a day leading up to Kav being chosen as mayor, then disappeared off the radar.
With that in mind, time to take a closer look at our possibly-friendly neighborhood RebirthOfLegenD.
IMPORTANT STATS: Posts in thread: 37 Posts Day 1: 29 Posts Day 2: 8 (At this rate, he'll have 17 or so by the end of the day cycle.)
This is an interesting thing, which I just mentioned. He's been significantly more inactive Day 2 than Day 1. This could be attributed to a number of things (he's not trying to run a mayoral campaign, everyone's a little less active day 2, etc.), but really, it's worth noticing. It by itself means nothing, though, lets look at more stuff.
PROFILE: He has no photo, so that's easy. Let's look at his public profile:
Welcome to the war
"Two roads diverged in a wood, and I— I took the one less traveled by, And that has made all the difference."
"What happens to a dream deferred?
Does it dry up like a raisin in the sun? Or fester like a sore-- And then run? Does it stink like rotten meat? Or crust and sugar over-- like a syrupy sweet?
Maybe it just sags like a heavy load.
Or does it explode?"
Page 150 of auto ban list
Lag was just temp banned for 1 week by Hot_Bid.
That account was created on 2009-03-04 00:41:24 and had 16 posts.
Reason: I don't know who you are. I don't know what you want. If you want to troll, I can tell you I have no patience for that. But what I do have are a very particular set of skills; skills I have acquired over a very long moderation career. Skills that make me a nightmare for people like you. If you stop the stupidity now, that'll be the end of it. I will not look for you, I will not pursue you. But if you don't, in one week, I will look for you, I will find you, and I will ban you.
And his quote: "Be a man, Become a Legend. TL Mafia Forum Ask for access!!"
Nice plug of the mafia forum there, and I was unable to find any clues pointing to that. To his public profile though... People have mentioned the "You can't run" possibly referring to MP running away, I'm not sure I buy it. It's a very very tenuous connection at best. That said, I'm not sure Node/LSB wanted to make the clues as obvious as they seem to be about Nemesis, so... perhaps.
Moving on to the really important bit:
ANALYSIS OF HIS POSTS:
On January 23 2011 18:11 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: hey! I will run for mayor too.
My platform is only that I will destroy the souls of mafia.
That is all.
His first post after the game has really gotten started. I can't tell if this is a subtle critique of Kav and kita's silly mayoral platforms, or whether he actually was serious from the get-go. Regardless, he gets more serious about his platform quickly:
On January 23 2011 23:06 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:Show nested quote +On January 23 2011 22:56 Jackal58 wrote:On January 23 2011 18:13 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: also why does everyone keep talking about Qatol? Hes not even in the game o.O? Pffff. And you're running for mayor? Do try to keep up my good sir. I haven't actually read most of the thread yet. Kav is a decent and level headed townie, although I don't remember ever seeing him as mafia. I tend to be much more erratic of a player but I do get results whatever we choose I am fine with.
Oh wait nevermind. A soft endorsement of Kav. Going off of meta, which I agree with in terms of Kav being a good player and a reasonable dude.
I'm sure he gets serious about his candidacy at some point...
On January 24 2011 09:40 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: Do I vote here? I don't see a thread so I will assume yes. I will vote for Kavdragon I suppose.
##Vote: Kavdragon
Not yet...
On January 24 2011 18:18 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: TMM2, Insane Mafia, Merc Mafia would be accurate to my current play style. All my previous games as mafia would not be accurately representative of my current skill. If you want an overview of my play style I will just tell you.
As a town I am generally more aggressive, while as mafia I am more conservative with what I do. Although I think the play styles would be harder to tell apart, I think a distinct difference which I know I used to make and work to rectify is that as mafia I will be more focused on a few individuals while as town I will focus on many. The reason being is as mafia its harder to create a fake case that you can believe in and believing the viability of what you are telling people is the most key part to any game as mafia. When you are lying you have to know your story has as few holes and logical inconsistencies as possible. If you look at Merc mafia and read how I played I made sure not to mimic previous play styles and played hyper aggressive, although that could be attributed to the fact that Annul/LD teaming up would of lead to our demise. If you read what I wrote from my perspective I was much more coherent than Annul and my points kind of stuck together and I rarely attempted to make huge jumps. Only at the end did it become much harder to keep my story but that was due to the complexity of the game and the hassle that contracts created.
I think the biggest tell I have as mafia is my behavior on AIM. I generally obsess over mafia games and read it for hours and hours each day until I die. As town I tend to post whenever I feel like it but as mafia I only post when I feel it is necessary. IE: I will feign inactivity to avoid commenting on a situation, or make sure I wait until its too late to reverse a stupid band wagon. Usually if I do the latter I will purposely try to divert the lynch to a team mate that way if either one of us dies it makes the other look better via wifom.
Now as far as this game goes, I am honestly just tired and I know this game is going to be a fucking shitstorm if you guys haven't learned ANYTHING from previous games. If you took NOTHING from Salem, if you took NOTHING from PYP3 then this game is going to be fucking gay as shit and we are going to get RAPED. Let me explain why.
In those games people flipped and eventually you kind of got an idea if someone was full of shit after 3 mislynches, but in this you don't know if something is a mislynch so you can have one asshole doing clue and behavioral analysis killing town left and right and you don't know if hes right or wrong. If everyone is focusing on that one person to champion them to victory you are going to doom us. Especially if the mayor is mafia. The ONLY way to confirm if any mafia have died is with 2 census reports. One today on mafia count and one somewhere down the line. The problem with that is if the mafia gets mayor we have no idea if we are on the right track and could easily get manipulated into having another game where we have 9/10 mislynches.
Here is how we counter this. Everyone fucking analyze everything. Do not EVER let one person do all the work, to win this game the town has to keep analyzing. Everyone has to analyze and we have to decide what has the most merit as a collective. If you have a few people doing analysis we will lose in this game faster and harder then in any other set up. Seriously guys. This isn't a fucking boot camp, this isn't some let us baby you set up. In this set up if you are lazy, if you fuck up, you lose us the game. This game requires an effort from EVERY townie to actually win and fuck if we get a mafia mayor then we are fucked. If any single person seems to be trying to take control of the town and who we lynch that is suspicious because channeling our lynches on the thoughts of one person who we can't prove there worth is going to make us die.
Now to business. I ain't fucking mafia. If you make me the mayor I will do everything I can to ensure that we stay organized and have EVERYONE doing analysis. If you aren't going to put work into analysis then you need to get the fuck out of the game the express way, via death. Anyone who is scared to contribute is most likely mafia not wanting to be suspicious and if you refuse to contribute you should be considered top of the list suspicious. Now onto why I think the other candidates suck.
DoctorHelvetica is okay and organizing the town but he ALWAYS takes a too central role and runs around in circles chasing his own tail until the mafia decide to put him out of his misery. Look at Salem. If this game is played like Salem where everyone just agrees on what one person says we are going to lose, and we are going to lose hard. DoctorHelvetica has never proven himself able to handle the town without putting too much focus on himself. The worst part about this is his town play that I have seen for mayor would play so hard against us, and if hes mafia he just has to do the same shit and keep the town tunneled and making bad decisions and we are boned. DoctorHelvetica will be an EXTREMELY dangerous mayor to have one way or the other and he is not worth the risk.
Kavdragon I feel a lot better about. He's a pretty level headed guy in the games I played with him and as he showed in Merc Mafia hes not above manipulating the shit out of people. Although he is a nice guy and I don't know if he could be direct enough to yell at people and get people killed when it comes down to it. Can you berate someone until they contribute and do what you want? Can you do the analysis and the follow through to take down scum? I know Kavdragon is decent but I don't think he has the experience like I do for this position. Although I don't believe he is mafia. I haven't seen him play a game as mafia yet and he seems like the cautious type who wouldn't put himself out there without experience. What I mean by that is if Kav was mafia I think he would play more layed back because hes not as familiar with what to do, while if he was town he would be more outgoing and confident in his play and run for mayor.
Those are my current thoughts on the election. I obviously think I am better qualified than anyone else for the position and I think I am our best bet to victory. Overall though the best chance for victory is in the towns collective efforts. This is the game where all the mafia has to do is shut down the active contributors and win because we are in the dark. However if the whole town is active that plan doesn't exist for them. The only way to win this game is through overwhelming effort and activity. Lets the last game I play show that TL town's have learned something from bootcamp, let this game show that even when a game forces the town to use every ounce of cunning we have to win that we can step up and do it.
Let this be the game where the town overcame the mafia.
BOOM. There we go. This is his real platform here. The most important thing here is, he tells us his playstyle. I've only played a couple games with him, but he plays pretty much like he said, so he is telling us the truth here. Not a very scummy move at all, giving the town the key with which to catch and lynch you.
He goes on to talk about metastrategy regarding the other candidates. Here, I think he sells Dr. H a little bit short, (I think Dr. H is a pretty good player and a decent scumhunter) but he's very clear about what he wants the plan for town to be: He's not taking a central role, all faith is not placed in him, he's just playing the role almost of cheerleader, getting town to get psyched about catching scum, getting them all involved. That's not a scummy move at all, in fact that's the opposite. A scum mayor would be much more like "trust in me guys, I'll save you!", then lead town in circles while mafia ate them alive. RoL wants town to win, that much is clear from this post.
He disappears for a while after this post, which is kind of strange. I guess his apathy got the better of him... He comes back after most people have abandoned his campaign and tries to save it with a few one liners that outline good strategy, but in a really lazy, half-assed way. Then:
On January 25 2011 13:39 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:I don't believe in a mayor centered town obviously. That is stupid. I am going to try to encourage everyone to contribute and analyze because that is the only way we are going to win this game. We need to make people talk and make them slip up if they are not town aligned. The only reason I want to be mayor is so I have a longer period of time where I can try and make people contribute and attempt to be a voice of reason. So Amber, how are things? I find it interesting that you quick response my prod when I know you do 4 day work weeks at home and somehow don't really contribute much besides responding to that Anyway, I am going to girlfriends for a few hours. When I get back you will all get more.
This is the core of his platform, and rehashes the above long post into a much more cohesive idea: Mayor-centric towns lose games. This is true. Also, he calls out Amber, which ended up being inconsequential - so far.
On January 25 2011 13:48 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: I like your reasoning Kav all up until the bit about the mason's. By the mason joining with the mayor it is creating a circle so to speak which I believe is what will do us in. We can't have all our ideas coming from 2-3 people. I want everyone contributing and by creating a circle you destroy possibility of that. I don't approve of any plan that puts powerful people and powerful roles together when they can't be confirmed. It leads to players looking for guidance from those who they perceive as "knowing more".
Mason's are an interesting role. The way I'd recommend playing it would be to try to recruit those who you think are town and treat everything they say as if you think they are mafia. IN PMland people are more likely to slip up and say something stupid. They are also more inclined to try to hard manipulate someone through PM's. From a mafia perspective it is MUCH safer than manipulating people publicly. Anyway, the mason role needs to be constantly vigilant and never too trusting.
I will switch my vote back too kav.
Good honest debate here, discussing how the mason role works. Again, so far I haven't seen anything that's triggering my scumdar.
I could go into Day 2, but not enough has been posted yet.
CONCLUSION: It seems the only real case against RoL is from his inactivity Day 2 + one really tenuous clue connection. He's been outlining some very helpful practices town should be following, hasn't contradicted himself yet, and hasn't done anything obviously scummy. The only weird thing is his apathy. He's come out and posted great stuff, but very sporadically, and his heart doesn't really seem to be in this game like it has in the past. For that reason, I'm pegging him as Green, and a very apathetic green.
What RoL should do is try and recapture some of the energy of past games, and get his ass in gear to provide this high quality analysis he says is coming.
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On January 29 2011 02:54 bumatlarge wrote:I have no comment on RoLs comparison of BB and myself. BB sees it as analysis>clues>profile, if i am not mistaken. I think we all know BB is prone to give people a chance
analysis>profile>clues, actually.
And it's because you're all too damn adorable
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On January 29 2011 03:22 Kavdragon wrote:Show nested quote +On January 29 2011 03:19 BrownBear wrote:And it's because you're all too damn adorable ^^Flattery. Obv scum here.
Oh shit, I've been found out! Whatever will I do?
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It's actually a good thing that we haven't tunneled into a "lynch one person at all costs" mentality, but now we need to actually pick between Nemesis/RoL/Coagulation.
So I'm going to do some analysis of Coag. Here's what I know about him from past games:
A very aggressive player, especially when under suspicion Doesn't always take the effort to analyze/often goes along with majority Often posts a lot of one-line/contentless posts, broken up rarely by one huge one. Disappears randomly. I don't know how his scum game differs from his town game, because I've only ever played with Coag the townie.
So overall, I really haven't seen him ever be super-helpful to town. Maybe during my short hiatus he's shaped up his game, though. Let's take a look at his profile and try to connect it to clues:
Picture: none. What's up with everyone forgetting pictures? Quote: derp DERP. Completely useless. Public Profile: His post about holding TL hostage. Important points that might find their way into clues: -Hostages, if we ever see a death where kidnapping/holding someone is involved that might point to him -sharks, unlikely though -flying monkeys, even less likely -manifesto? I don't know, his profile seems specifically engineered to be clue-proof. This is annoying.
Fuck it, let's just look at his posts:
On January 23 2011 15:44 Coagulation wrote: Kavdragon for mayor is ok by me
His first post of day 1, and only post for a while, seems to just be a "hey guys, I'm here" post. Trying to dodge any fingers pointing at inactives by popping in and contributing nothing? Or just a quick post because he's busy? Let's look further.
On January 24 2011 15:38 Coagulation wrote: i will volunteer as a bodyguard
Coag's second post, near the end of the cycle, and his only other post for day 1. An unacceptable level of inactivity, and since Day 1 was 48 hours, not really something he can excuse. Let's look further into this though.
He pops in once to say "yo guys, this thing we're doing, I agree with it." Then he pops in again while we're discussing bodyguard selection to say "yo guys, this thing we're doing, I agree with it. Sign me up." He posted that right after we had kind of decided "maybe having people volunteer for BG isn't such a good idea after all." This shows a severe lack of paying attention on Coag's part, and kind of makes him look like he's entirely uninterested in what town has to say.
That's it for Day 1, let's move on to Night 1:
On January 26 2011 15:38 Coagulation wrote:Show nested quote +On January 26 2011 14:24 Beneather wrote:On January 26 2011 14:15 TheAldo wrote:On January 26 2011 13:10 Nemesis wrote:Hi barundar and obviously kav is going to check the number of mafias tonight right? Next day, I think it might be more beneficial to check the number of SK's. Why is it beneficial to check the number of SK's? It's more beneficial because we then know how many KP a night we're going to have. Since the regular mafia games have 5-6 mafia members and we know the formula then it would be atleast 3-4 KPs a night. I think knowing the number of SK will benefit the town to prepare for the number of KPs at night. referes to the mafia Kp count as "we're" and refers to the "town" in an outside perspective. Badly worded post or scumslip?
His first post in a while, completely out of nowhere, right as people are wondering "huh, there hasn't been enough anger in the thread. Where'd Coag go?" (ok, I kid, but you get the point). LD does point out Coag does this a lot, though, right before Coag drops in out of the blue. Furthermore, he posts just to throw a ton of suspicion on Beneather, who has just been selected as a bodyguard. I should mention that Beneather has started to come under more suspicion, so perhaps his argument has merit, and to be fair it was a terribly worded post regardless of Beneather's alignment. Anyway, that plus a couple useless posts are all the activity we get out of him Night 1. Moving on...
We talk about bum for awhile, people die, we are sad, we talk about Nemesis, Nemesis defends himself, then Coag posts to whine about the setup:
On January 27 2011 15:21 Coagulation wrote: i dont like not knowing what roles people are when they die makes it 100x harder for town. i dont see how this could be balanced fairly.
That's great, but why are you choosing to whine about it now? It seems like a very contrived post, and another "hey guys look I'm still here" thing.
Fortunately people start noticing, and especially after LD's list, start calling him out. Then he posts why:
On January 28 2011 11:59 Coagulation wrote: its not that i dont read the thread i just dont post unless i see something worth posting about.
Well, I'd love to believe that, but all but one of your posts so far have been worthless. Completely.
kita agrees, and calls him out on it. Then Coag references the ONE useful post he's had all game as a "look I've been helpful" excuse.
On January 28 2011 12:07 Coagulation wrote:umm do you read my post's? + Show Spoiler +On January 26 2011 15:38 Coagulation wrote:Show nested quote +On January 26 2011 14:24 Beneather wrote:On January 26 2011 14:15 TheAldo wrote:On January 26 2011 13:10 Nemesis wrote:Hi barundar and obviously kav is going to check the number of mafias tonight right? Next day, I think it might be more beneficial to check the number of SK's. Why is it beneficial to check the number of SK's? It's more beneficial because we then know how many KP a night we're going to have. Since the regular mafia games have 5-6 mafia members and we know the formula then it would be atleast 3-4 KPs a night. I think knowing the number of SK will benefit the town to prepare for the number of KPs at night. referes to the mafia Kp count as "we're" and refers to the "town" in an outside perspective. Badly worded post or scumslip?
Again, I just can't buy it. kita continues to push him, and Coag lightly OMGUS's kita in return.
On January 28 2011 12:13 Coagulation wrote:sure like now i can point out how extremely aggressive kitaman27 is pushing suspicion on me for no reason and say its starting to look scummy. + Show Spoiler +"So there has been nothing this entire game that has been worth posting about? Not a single person that seems fishy?" i gave you an example that proves your blowing things out of proportion.
He's very wrong here for a number of reasons. The thread has reached page 45 when this is posted, which means 900 posts have been recorded, about 700 of which are post-start of the game. Of these 700 posts, he's posted about 12 times, and 1 of these posts was actually useful. 700 divided by 31 is roughly 23, so he should have about 23 useful posts at this point in the game. He has 1. I don't see how kita's suspicion is in any way scummy. Yes, you referenced your one post, that's great. However, in order to defend yourself fully you should have referenced at least 3 or 4 with reasons why they were good posts. The fact that not only didn't you do this, but you couldn't do this, is pretty bad.
On January 28 2011 12:17 Coagulation wrote: when town its usually best to lay low unless theres a reason not to. when late game comes i post more.
also many people will confirm that i post 100x more when im mafia.
Here's something I actually want to confirm. Who has played with Coagulation before, and can confirm or deny this? I honestly want to know.
On January 28 2011 13:02 Coagulation wrote:Show nested quote +On January 28 2011 12:30 GMarshal wrote:On January 28 2011 12:23 Coagulation wrote:EBWOP On January 28 2011 12:22 Coagulation wrote:On January 28 2011 12:19 kitaman27 wrote:On January 28 2011 12:17 Coagulation wrote: when town its usually best to lay low unless theres a reason not to. when late game comes i post more.
also many people will confirm that i post 100x more when im mafia. What reason is there a reason to lay low? Is there something to hide from? mafia hits SK hitsAn active thread provides more information so when you get to late game, you actually have something to go by. ok As town though its our job to get information by any and all means, even if it means dying for it. I mean unless you serve some other function by staying alive then you should post much and often. If I weren't buried in school work then I would certainly post more. (Ok, now back to studying calculus)
Blueclaaaaim. From everything that's happened up to this point, though, I really don't believe it.
On January 28 2011 13:04 Coagulation wrote: Kav looks like hes doing a good job so far he has covered all the bases i have seen. But dont worry i do got a list of you scummy fuckers its just not time to start shoving them down everyones fucking throat yet
I haven't seen this list yet, and I really want to. So Coag, where's your list?
This is a good lesson: Anytime someone who is under suspicion says they have a list/spreadsheet/whatever that contains how to win/catch mafia/bake cookies/whatever, MAKE THEM SHOW IT. If they refuse to show it, THREATEN TO LYNCH THEM UNTIL THEY DO. If they don't have one, that means they lied. And liars are scum, 99% of the time.
On January 28 2011 13:33 Coagulation wrote: CubEdIn tube Kenpachi Divinek
scum be there
Didn't see this post earlier, but if this is meant to be your list, perhaps we should just stop trying. I'm holding out that you actually have a list beyond this, though. I have to.
On January 28 2011 13:41 Coagulation wrote: YA hence why i hadnt felt it necessary to post my suspects yet.
Ok good, that wasn't your list, but then we get back to the where-is-your-list question.
That's all of consequence I could find on Coagulation, and trust me it was hard as fuck.
VERDICT: I want to say scum, I really do. But I've been part of too many games where we lynch someone for the same reasons as these and they just end up being a bored townie who decided it wasn't worth it. So, here's what I say:
Coagulation, I am CALLING YOU OUT.
If you want suspicion to be taken off of you, you have to start playing better than this. I want to see you do these things:
1) Post a real list of suspects, not the piece of crap you posted earlier. 2) Start analyzing those suspects. Convince us that they're suspicious. 3) Refrain from posting the pointless "Hey guys look I'm here" posts in the future. Only post when you actually have something to add. 4) I want to see 15 quality posts a day from you, minimum. You can figure out what quality means yourself, you're a smart dude.
I'm not going to advocate lynching you today because there's not enough time left. Consider yourself on super-seekrit probation though. If your game hasn't cleaned up by next day... I'm sure you can figure that out for yourself.
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On January 29 2011 06:25 Coagulation wrote: lets just lynch this coag dude and get him out of the way so town can focus on actually hunting scum
Jesus, if that's the attitude you're taking, why did you even bother signing up in the first place?
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On January 29 2011 06:54 Coagulation wrote: WHAT YOU WANT ME TO DO? MAKE SHIT UP FOR SAKE OF POSTING?
I have accidentally lynched enough townies committing to half ass bandwagons over less than tangible evidence. So im not gonna make up shit. I know people listen to me. maybe not because im a good mafia player or a great analyst but because I am very blunt and to the point and stand firmly to my convictions.
I have responded to accusations of being inactive promptly every time. Im clearly watching whats going on. Why dont you focus on people who are actually avoiding responding to fucking pressure.
If you haven't noticed, almost everyone in the game has done more with the information they have than you.
How can you say that standing firmly by your convictions = good mafia play? Also, I haven't seen a single conviction so far. Mostly because you've posted nothing. Like, seriously. Nothing. One post kind of implicating Beneather that you then didn't follow through on.
If you think you aren't a great analyst, then now's the time to start getting better! I want to see you analyze someone. You're obviously on. Do it now. What do you have to lose?
Your responses to inactivity aren't cutting it. By your logic, everyone in Mafia could scrape by by posting several "Hai guyz I'm in the thread k" posts a day, and we'd get nothing done.
The "15 posts" was an arbitrary number, it's not like I'm going to hold you to it. It's just there to set a goal for you to aspire to. And no, I really can't believe you are incapable of finding something to post about. Almost everyone else seems to be doing just fine.
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On January 29 2011 07:20 GMarshal wrote: Well its going to be really funny if we have 10 or so modkills
If by funny you mean terrible and frustrating, then yeah.
Right now I'm still undecided on Nemesis, and yes, I know my vote is on him. However, because I think RoL is town, I'm giving Coag a day to shape up, and bum's been very active/posting analysis, I'm sticking with Nem for now.
Currently RoL is the vote leader, which is not something I'm cool with. Are we really lynching him? I'd like to hear reasons why, there hasn't been a real unified case against him.
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On January 29 2011 07:31 Nemesis wrote: Bzzz, as I have said before, if you are going to vote to lynch me, at least state your reasons.
Brownbear, you seem to have analyzed all the other candidates except for me yet you are voting me? At least give your reason, and please don't say LD's clues are so good -.-
GMarshal, is that a bandwagon vote?
Because I'm giving Coag a chance, I have already posted my reasoning behind not voting RoL, and I haven't really taken a look at Mr. Zergling yet. Honestly, I'm wondering why I haven't seen anything about him, yet there's votes on him. Secret bandwagon?
I'll try to throw up some analysis on Mr. Z, but I am heading to a rehearsal now, so I can't guarantee I'll get a full analysis done before the end of the day. I'll do my best, though.
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