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vet: cant prove it unless you are hit, no guarantee hatter: cant prove it unless you die vig: cant prove it within the rules medic: cant prove it (actually you can, but its ridic difficult to do) DT: cant prove it (framers/GF/etc not to mention potential for "checking" your mafia teammate who of course will confirm)
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On December 29 2010 04:42 Insanious wrote: I don't see LSB as a red, he doesn't look red to me
then this is your real reson. its not his blue claim, its "i do not believe annul's analysis."
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in scenario 1, even if KP doesnt go down, it means we only have 1 more kill to go to drop it, instead of 2.
in scenario 2, yes this is true.
in scenario 3, 1. fuck me; 2. this won't happen.
i also think the "1 blue > 2 green" is flawed -- you cannot assume it will be extra greens who get night killed. it is more than probable to include at least 1 other blue (if LSB is blue himself). so you trade 1 blue 1 green for 1 blue?
assume there are 6 mafia. 24 town. assume there are 10 blues. 1-((14/24)*(13/23)) = 67.03% chance to kill at least 1 blue using purely RNG kills.
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then im wrong, and so are all the people who see what i see.
also means his defense to my attack was pretty horrible
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On December 29 2010 05:31 LSB wrote:Show nested quote +but can you disprove by showing games where an active mafia is lynched on day1 and they did not say they can prove their innocence. Harry Potter Mafia Yours truely
rofl
it was a bus
of course you arent going to claim blue because you are being bussed! your goal was death.
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On December 29 2010 05:44 LSB wrote:Show nested quote +On December 29 2010 05:42 annul wrote:On December 29 2010 05:31 LSB wrote:but can you disprove by showing games where an active mafia is lynched on day1 and they did not say they can prove their innocence. Harry Potter Mafia Yours truely rofl it was a busof course you arent going to claim blue because you are being bussed! your goal was death. So do you think I'm mafia? It doesn't sound like it.
no, ive only been sitting on you the entire game because i dont think youre mafia
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On December 29 2010 06:33 bumatlarge wrote: I'm sure that LSB wouldn't lie if he wasn't scum
what?
FOS bumatlarge ;\
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On December 29 2010 06:51 bumatlarge wrote: Speaking of which annul, why are you against this? By all means LSB shouldnt be able to kill you since he is scum, right? If he is vig then there is a better chance of you being scum then most people.
i am not for or against any plan yet
i am against a contention that scum wont lie
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i really do not know what pandain is talking about here
ill copy what i told him in PMs here too:
Original Message From annul: there is nobody better to kill today than LSB.
if you agree LSB is 99% mafia then find me someone who is 99.1% mafia to go after instead. its not like sengoku where you do not have to vote someone each day cycle.
----------------------------------------- Original Message From Pandain: ? IF he doesn't give proof by start of day 2, we lynch him. Plain and simple. ----------------------------------------- Original Message From annul: theres a 100% kill somewhere?
----------------------------------------- Original Message From Pandain: unvote lsb we'll be able to lynch him tommorow, or at the very least vigi him tommorow night.
I think he's scum, but let's go for the 100%
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i mean this is the critical theme between all of these posts trying to save LSB
"I THINK HES SCUM, BUT..."
but what? if you think hes scum, kill him.
if he really had a plan that he could reveal at the start of day 2 he could reveal it now. nothing changes in night 1 that cant be solved for (medic protection on him if he is really so important), etc. realize night 1 is the only period of time passing from now and when he says he will reveal his master plan
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in fact it almost looks to me like mafia trying to half-save their partner, but cover their ass when he does flip red
"OH NO NO NO i wasnt really trying to defend him, see im saying hes scum to me!"
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btw he isnt godfather yet - there is no godfather yet
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"clearly" a bad idea -- clear to whom? even pandain says you are 99% mafia
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you do not seem to understand math
if there is a "99%" chance he is mafia, the only thing you can gain is 1% certainty by waiting.
in exchange for this 1% certainty, assume we attack someone on RNG basis. we give up 80% certainty today and, in exchange for ONE PERCENT chance to save a blue, we take a ~33% chance of randoming a "different" blue. an actual blue.
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i do not play this game RNG. if this game was entirely RNG then what is the point of playing at all, of analysis, etc?
i do not have a 6/30 chance of feeling correctly. my "feelings" are not RNG-based.
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okay well
unless something actually changes, you all have my case, you all have LSB's case. you all have what has transpired to go through. go forth and vote, we have 3.75 hours
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uhhhhh
what is with this push for brocket all of a sudden? what has brocket even done?
stop going off target. LSB is a much better kill than brocket.
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seriously the brocket vote has to be the dumbest idea possible at this stage in the game
why are we effectively giving up our day 1 vote? this is such a horrible idea it isnt even funny. what will killing brocket gain us? what information? none. none whatsoever.
taking down LSB however will give us a multitude of information.
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On December 29 2010 10:31 Insanious wrote: and since there have been 4 people comming out of no where to defend Brocket it makes me think Brocket is even more red.
maybe its people coming out against horrible ideas with no basis in fact or analysis?
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btw look at the voting thread.
shockey, georgeclooney, d3_crescentia, tevo
all gonna be modkilled for illegal voting too
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