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On October 08 2010 06:47 DoctorHelvetica wrote:Show nested quote +On October 08 2010 06:45 LSB wrote:On October 08 2010 06:41 DoctorHelvetica wrote:On October 08 2010 06:38 LSB wrote:On October 08 2010 06:35 DoctorHelvetica wrote:On October 08 2010 06:29 LSB wrote:On October 08 2010 06:15 DoctorHelvetica wrote:On October 08 2010 06:13 LSB wrote: My idea for dealing for Bill Murray. (This is for figuring out if he is red/VI)
Okay, instead of killing him today, we declare that we are going to kill him tomorrow, with a double lynch.
Mafia knows that we will kill Bill tomorrow, if Bill is VI, Mafia will have to kill him tonight or else they will lose. But if Bill is Mafia, mafia can't kill Bill, and we would know that he is red.
This way we get to have mafia waste on of their hits or lose. this is the same stupid thing infinitestory proposed we lose if we lynch bill murray and he's vi, everyone loses. this is a bad bad idea Oops. Didn't notice his posts Okay, I'll carry on his torch then. This is something we should rely on. The benefits are pretty clear. Mafia has to use up one of their lynchs. The point isn't whether or not the town is going to commit suicide. We will lynch BM tomorrow because we will know he is Mafia. But if Bill Murray isn't mafia, Mafia has to kill Bill Murray or they lose. The Mafia plays to win if town lynches bill murray as a threat to end the game, the town still loses if BM is VI. if BM isn't mafia and isn't VI then we've wasted a lynch AND put no pressure on the mafia. the point is that this is a suicide threat. our goal is not for mafia to lose it is for town to win. We can double lynch, that's why we wouldn't waste a lynch. Also, the point is, BM won't be Vanilla Town when we put his head up to the chopping block, he'd either be dead by Scum hands, or he would be red. or he'll be village idiot and bill murray wins and we lose. why should we put our chance of winning this game in the hands of the mafia? we are not lynching someone who is a big candidate for village idiot. we are not doing that. We wouldn't be placing the game in the hands of the mafia. The mafia would want to kill BM at night as much as we do. The point is, the only reason why the mafia wouldn't kill BM is if BM is mafia. or because town isn't going to lynch a village idiot and they don't need to kill him in the first place
I find it quiet hard to believe that there are two VI's in this game.
So what would we do about BM? We can't just ignore him
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On October 08 2010 06:54 DoctorHelvetica wrote:Show nested quote +On October 08 2010 06:50 LSB wrote:On October 08 2010 06:47 DoctorHelvetica wrote:On October 08 2010 06:45 LSB wrote:On October 08 2010 06:41 DoctorHelvetica wrote:On October 08 2010 06:38 LSB wrote:On October 08 2010 06:35 DoctorHelvetica wrote:On October 08 2010 06:29 LSB wrote:On October 08 2010 06:15 DoctorHelvetica wrote:On October 08 2010 06:13 LSB wrote: My idea for dealing for Bill Murray. (This is for figuring out if he is red/VI)
Okay, instead of killing him today, we declare that we are going to kill him tomorrow, with a double lynch.
Mafia knows that we will kill Bill tomorrow, if Bill is VI, Mafia will have to kill him tonight or else they will lose. But if Bill is Mafia, mafia can't kill Bill, and we would know that he is red.
This way we get to have mafia waste on of their hits or lose. this is the same stupid thing infinitestory proposed we lose if we lynch bill murray and he's vi, everyone loses. this is a bad bad idea Oops. Didn't notice his posts Okay, I'll carry on his torch then. This is something we should rely on. The benefits are pretty clear. Mafia has to use up one of their lynchs. The point isn't whether or not the town is going to commit suicide. We will lynch BM tomorrow because we will know he is Mafia. But if Bill Murray isn't mafia, Mafia has to kill Bill Murray or they lose. The Mafia plays to win if town lynches bill murray as a threat to end the game, the town still loses if BM is VI. if BM isn't mafia and isn't VI then we've wasted a lynch AND put no pressure on the mafia. the point is that this is a suicide threat. our goal is not for mafia to lose it is for town to win. We can double lynch, that's why we wouldn't waste a lynch. Also, the point is, BM won't be Vanilla Town when we put his head up to the chopping block, he'd either be dead by Scum hands, or he would be red. or he'll be village idiot and bill murray wins and we lose. why should we put our chance of winning this game in the hands of the mafia? we are not lynching someone who is a big candidate for village idiot. we are not doing that. We wouldn't be placing the game in the hands of the mafia. The mafia would want to kill BM at night as much as we do. The point is, the only reason why the mafia wouldn't kill BM is if BM is mafia. or because town isn't going to lynch a village idiot and they don't need to kill him in the first place I find it quiet hard to believe that there are two VI's in this game. So what would we do about BM? We can't just ignore him Vig hit, we've already went over this Small concern: What if it turns out BM is vet? We lose Vigi powers.
Big concern: Having the Vig kill BM doesn't help out the town at all
It's better to have the Mafia do the dirty work for us than for us to have to do it ourselves. Essentially we are reducing mafia KP for a night. More people are alive. Yay!
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LMAO
Pandain are you getting too trigger happy? Are you trying to start bandwagons?
On October 08 2010 06:57 Pandain wrote:And well well, what do we have here LSB? I was looking over Infun, not expecting much, when I noticed you left out some posts of his. Show nested quote +On October 06 2010 11:08 Infundibulum wrote:On October 06 2010 10:58 meeple wrote: ... lots of sudden votes for protactinium... I mean... smurfing isn't that annoying is it?
What's the deal with infinitestory's no-post vote... get in here man! Not just infinitestory, ghrur as well. You guys better post your reasoning for these votes on Element 91. Show nested quote +On October 06 2010 12:24 Infundibulum wrote:On October 06 2010 12:14 infinitestory wrote:On October 06 2010 12:09 Infundibulum wrote:On October 06 2010 12:07 NukeTheBunnys wrote: On that note, Im changing my vote to Protactinium. I don't want the mafia to be able to swing the vote away from a mafioso, and there certainly are enough no votes so far to swing the vote to just about anyone. so Im just going to put the leader further ahead. Also dealing with smurfs does not seem fun. Wait. So you don't think Protact is mafia, but you're still voting him anyway? He's worried that if Protact is mafia, the mafia will pull some shenanigans and change the leader away from him before lynch. this is awful reasoning. we want to lynch the people that we think are mafia. so far i haven't seen a convincing case made against Protact, and there's definitely no consensus. all there is is a bandwagon. How about we flip it: I'm worried that Protact is town and that we're going to lynch a townie, putting us even farther behind after modkills. I voted for gruhr because he bandwagoned on Protact, and this is a huge contradiction to his pretty well thought out posts earlier. Two posts with an underlying suscipcion of Ghrur. Now, this in itself wouldn't be interesting, but the fact you left them out is. I'm going to analyze LSB as well tonight. Okay, go accuse Ghur. Infun literally said that he was accusing Ghur because he "sounded funny". I'm not going to defend Ghur, but nor am I going to pretend that Infun was seriously attacking Ghur I don't know about you, but to me, "Sounding funny" is a pretty lame argument
And as for the second post. Obviously Infun is prodding NuketheBunnies. I just find no reason to be redundant Wait.. do you mean Infinitestory? Could you point out where he attacked Infinitestory? Thanks
Read before you post
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On October 08 2010 06:56 XeliN wrote: Ok I was going to try to write a large response post to some of the things people have said about me, but I'm finding it difficult currently due to the ambiguity of the assertions, there have been some statements such as "sticking his neck out" "sided with bill" and other such things.
I know this will sound a little hmm arrogant or presumptuous maybe, but for the sake of clarity: if anyone has any specific questions about my play, conduct, arguments or actions that they would like me to directly answer then please state them clearly and I will do so .
I'm the most likely to be lynched atm, so plz humor me xD (I didn't read much of the spammy part, so please excuse me if you already awnsered/addressed this)
I'm just wondering. Why did you keep on posting about PMs, when BB went out and told people to stop doing that?
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On October 08 2010 07:00 DoctorHelvetica wrote:Show nested quote +On October 08 2010 06:57 LSB wrote:On October 08 2010 06:54 DoctorHelvetica wrote:On October 08 2010 06:50 LSB wrote:On October 08 2010 06:47 DoctorHelvetica wrote:On October 08 2010 06:45 LSB wrote:On October 08 2010 06:41 DoctorHelvetica wrote:On October 08 2010 06:38 LSB wrote:On October 08 2010 06:35 DoctorHelvetica wrote:On October 08 2010 06:29 LSB wrote: [quote] Oops. Didn't notice his posts
Okay, I'll carry on his torch then. This is something we should rely on. The benefits are pretty clear. Mafia has to use up one of their lynchs.
The point isn't whether or not the town is going to commit suicide. We will lynch BM tomorrow because we will know he is Mafia. But if Bill Murray isn't mafia, Mafia has to kill Bill Murray or they lose. The Mafia plays to win if town lynches bill murray as a threat to end the game, the town still loses if BM is VI. if BM isn't mafia and isn't VI then we've wasted a lynch AND put no pressure on the mafia. the point is that this is a suicide threat. our goal is not for mafia to lose it is for town to win. We can double lynch, that's why we wouldn't waste a lynch. Also, the point is, BM won't be Vanilla Town when we put his head up to the chopping block, he'd either be dead by Scum hands, or he would be red. or he'll be village idiot and bill murray wins and we lose. why should we put our chance of winning this game in the hands of the mafia? we are not lynching someone who is a big candidate for village idiot. we are not doing that. We wouldn't be placing the game in the hands of the mafia. The mafia would want to kill BM at night as much as we do. The point is, the only reason why the mafia wouldn't kill BM is if BM is mafia. or because town isn't going to lynch a village idiot and they don't need to kill him in the first place I find it quiet hard to believe that there are two VI's in this game. So what would we do about BM? We can't just ignore him Vig hit, we've already went over this Small concern: What if it turns out BM is vet? We lose Vigi powers. Big concern: Having the Vig kill BM doesn't help out the town at all It's better to have the Mafia do the dirty work for us than for us to have to do it ourselves. Essentially we are reducing mafia KP for a night. More people are alive. Yay! We don't decide what the mafia does. What you don't understand is that the only way this puts mafia in a corner is IF bill murray is mafia if bill murray isn't mafia they are sitting back and laughing at the pressure while we are essentially saying "if you don't kill this town player we will". if we have reason to believe he is the village idiot than lynching him is stupid
Bill Murray is going to be dead no matter what if he is mafia. Doesn't change the situation for the Mafia at all O.O If Bill Murray is mafia, mafia is probably cutting losses right now and bandwagoning him.
On the other hand, if Bill Murray isn't mafia, they will kill him. They have to decide between losing the game and using a KP. Obviously they are going to use a KP. If they sit back and laugh they will lose.
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On October 08 2010 07:10 DoctorHelvetica wrote:Show nested quote +On October 08 2010 07:08 LSB wrote:On October 08 2010 07:00 DoctorHelvetica wrote:On October 08 2010 06:57 LSB wrote:On October 08 2010 06:54 DoctorHelvetica wrote:On October 08 2010 06:50 LSB wrote:On October 08 2010 06:47 DoctorHelvetica wrote:On October 08 2010 06:45 LSB wrote:On October 08 2010 06:41 DoctorHelvetica wrote:On October 08 2010 06:38 LSB wrote: [quote] We can double lynch, that's why we wouldn't waste a lynch.
Also, the point is, BM won't be Vanilla Town when we put his head up to the chopping block, he'd either be dead by Scum hands, or he would be red. or he'll be village idiot and bill murray wins and we lose. why should we put our chance of winning this game in the hands of the mafia? we are not lynching someone who is a big candidate for village idiot. we are not doing that. We wouldn't be placing the game in the hands of the mafia. The mafia would want to kill BM at night as much as we do. The point is, the only reason why the mafia wouldn't kill BM is if BM is mafia. or because town isn't going to lynch a village idiot and they don't need to kill him in the first place I find it quiet hard to believe that there are two VI's in this game. So what would we do about BM? We can't just ignore him Vig hit, we've already went over this Small concern: What if it turns out BM is vet? We lose Vigi powers. Big concern: Having the Vig kill BM doesn't help out the town at all It's better to have the Mafia do the dirty work for us than for us to have to do it ourselves. Essentially we are reducing mafia KP for a night. More people are alive. Yay! We don't decide what the mafia does. What you don't understand is that the only way this puts mafia in a corner is IF bill murray is mafia if bill murray isn't mafia they are sitting back and laughing at the pressure while we are essentially saying "if you don't kill this town player we will". if we have reason to believe he is the village idiot than lynching him is stupid Bill Murray is going to be dead no matter what if he is mafia. Doesn't change the situation for the Mafia at all O.O If Bill Murray is mafia, mafia is probably cutting losses right now and bandwagoning him. On the other hand, if Bill Murray isn't mafia, they will kill him. They have to decide between losing the game and using a KP. Obviously they are going to use a KP. If they sit back and laugh they will lose. so lets clarify you are saying if mafia doesn't kill bill murray we will lynch him and because he is the VI mafia will lose? if bill murray isn't mafia and the mafia doesn't kill him what does the mafia stand to lose that we don't? in that scenario both the mafia and the town are under equal pressure and the mafia have the upper hand because they know bill isn't red and we don't We both agree that if Bill Murray is mafia, there is no difference in the plan. The point of disagreement is what the mafia would do.
Okay, I have no idea how you're approaching the problem. But I think we aren't on the same page. I'll just explain it again. Think of incentives from the Mafia's point of view.
Assume we are following through with our plan. It's Night 2. Mafia knows that Bill Murray isn't one of them. They either have two options
1) Kill Bill Murray, if Bill Murray is a townie, its business as usually. If Bill Murray is VI they adverted disaster 2) Don't Kill Bill Murray, if Bill Murray is townie, nothing really happens as the town will just double lynch. If Bill Murrary is VI, the town would lynch Bill Murrary, thinking that Bill Murrary is red.
Mafia will find that option 1 is preferable. Option 2 they have a chance of loosing. Option 1 they kill someone that doesn't reveal to the town much information about the mafia.
As for the Town. It's Day 3. From our incentive analysis, we realize that if Bill Murrary was green/VI, mafia would have killed him. So if Bill Murrary is green, we wake up with his death post.
If Bill Murrary was red, Mafia wouldn't have killed him. So we know that he is red. So we lynch him and we take out a mafia.
What this plan does is exploit the fact that the mafia knows whether or not Bill Murray is red Mafia basically knows Bill Murray's role. We don't. So we force the mafia to reveal this information.
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On October 08 2010 07:23 Divinek wrote: or he's the village idiot and we lynch him and we lose lol?
But the mafia won't let that happen
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On October 08 2010 07:28 DoctorHelvetica wrote: well we have to wait on what the mafia does. the mafia can just not kill bill murray knowing the town will lynch him effectively increasing their KP assuming bill is NOT mafia
However, then they will have risk that BM is mafia, and they have mislead the town. The Mafia would not be increasing their KP. Remember, either way, BM is going to be dead, whether it is lynch/Vig/mafia.
The thing is, we are going to set up a situation where the mafia will have to either accept risk, or use up one of their KP
this is no different from pressuring anyone. you call someone out as mafia and if they don't die during the night you lynch them. this only pressures the mafia if that player is mafia. The difference is, when we pressure someone, mafia has no reason to kill that person during the night. Maybe to cause some confusion. But it would be much better to let the town lynch him on their own
On the other hand, mafia has a stake in this, they also need to kill BM. Mafia is under some pressure
am I making sense? the mafia only stands to lose anything here if BM is mafia and I don't think that's the case. he is a strong VI case if there is a second VI but he's played like this as town before. i really just think he's green (especially considering the PM trick he pulled) I understand what you are saying. Just we differ in what we think the mafia will do.
Also, I think that he is red.
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On October 08 2010 08:19 ghrur wrote: Okay, first off LSB, I know my name is very weird, but ghrur instead of ghur please. xD Sowwwy Ghrur.
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On October 08 2010 09:57 kane]deth[ wrote: So I am currently voting for Misder as the proof that others have posted on him seems more reasonable than the accusations against any other player currently. Um what proof? Like what did you find most persuasive?
I swear that I don't remember anyone formally accusing him. We're just pressuring him
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On October 08 2010 10:51 Misder wrote:I'm actually surprised not too many people are voting for me, considering the fact that I did contridict myself twice; once when I said that I vote with reason (well technically I did... intuition and my limited knowledge on how mafia players work) and once when I said that mafia members are the ones who die out into the thread (which I basically disappeared from). I'm such a good target for the mafia to start a bandwagon. I don't know if this is a good thing that the town is not impulsive or a bad thing that the town doesn't really like to do analysis... (well ghrur did, and i think he makes good points). And pretty much yeah, I took a shot in the dark, and I think I pretty much shot myself instead. Well this is what I had a while ago, but I never posted "~Opz~ Ok, I’m looking at him from the perspective of Mafia XXX, the most recent normal game. In this game ~Opz~ was tracker. I guess this isn’t the most amazing analysis, and most people also act differently from a green townie and a blue, but I’ll try. In day 1, as a blue ~Opz~ told the town what to do, coming up with plans, participating in the actual crux of what was going on. Show nested quote +On August 07 2010 02:26 ~OpZ~ wrote: Okay. Vigi should claim Day 2 IMO because he can't use his night kill til night 2. The vigi can openly suggest his target, meds protect target. If 2 people die that night, and dude is protected from a hit then BAM, we have a huge circle formed with meds confirming the vigi, DT's can openly claim to vigi or use a mouth, Bus Driver should stay hidden I feel...except to maybe the meds.
And if it is a mafia ploy? We'd have netted two mafia. The fake vigi claimer, and the dude who was hit by the vigi because he would have to have been protected. All medics should protect the guy getting vigi'd so they get the protection message, or mafia would have to use all KP to stop the plan, GIVING us quite a few more days... He never actually contributes in this game on Day 1, just blames all of the newcomers." So my analysis of him before was when he was a blue role, pretty much irrelevant... I didn't look back at games even older, when I should have. When I actually looked at him more in dept than my intuition and one day of the game where he was blue, I've come to a conclusion that ~Opz~ is most likely town. This is his quote from Mafia XXIII where he was actually townie. Show nested quote +On July 18 2010 15:34 ~OpZ~ wrote:On July 18 2010 08:12 Jayme wrote:On July 18 2010 08:03 iNfuNdiBuLuM wrote: RNG lynch is dumb because you have more of a chance to land on a townie, and then he could be a helpful townie.
if we lynch an inactive we're killing someone who probably would not have helped us anyway
however, i don't want to lynch someone that would just get modkilled since that's obviously a waste.
Bill, how many votes can someone miss before they get zapped? As far as I know they can't miss any votes at all. We have more of a chance to land on a townie with any day 1 method we choose simply due to the fact that there are 24 townies and 6 mafia...there is no way of avoiding this. As a matter of fact I would say we have a better chance of hitting a good red player through RNG because I mean...who's to say that this "good townie" isn't just a red being a good townie. I understand lynching an inactive is killing someone who wouldn't have helped anyway but you're still doing just that...just about guaranteeing a green lynch which is completely pointless. As I said before I'm willing to go with either, there isn't much we could do. The issue I see with RNG is verifying if it's actually RNG. Actually....I'm done for this....Let me read a little more and we'll see who I want to die.... Also, I'm tired of these idiotic plans. We can pm. Dt, check someone PM them, pass turn, check someone PM them and the other person, pass turn. Quit playing like idiots and realize the benefits of having PMs....Nubby ass mafioso. And go back and look at games with PM's day one, no body does anything that day... The best thing I could say is everyone Roleclaim to me, and lynch me today...Or wait til tomorrow and do it. I'd inform of match ups, over counts, and die out as proof. How does that sound? I can send the PM out, and inform before death of everyone who doesn't respond, over counts of roles, ect. ect. I could be checked night one if that would be a problem, (wouldn't recommend organized multi checking though) and lynched day 2. Even if I was god father, god father would be out and too many blues to snipe with a list of roles and over claims. *yawn* But I don't really wanna die too bad, or abuse how easy this game could be. ~Opz~ has a condescending tone this mafia game, just like he does in this game. When I was reading through his posts in XXIII, its mostly yelling at people. Also, I believe that he is town because of he said that Artanis wrote Townie on his PM. If he was mafia, he wouldn't make such a huge claim. As for BM, I believe that he is VI. BM spammed most of Mafia XXX also, and he was ninja then. Question, what is the point of using an important vig shot on a supposed VI? Can't we just not lynch the VI and be done with? Or are we just afraid that then, mafia members can pose as VI and not get lynched? So question: Can't the mafia not kill BM if they believe that BM is not VI? Also, if BM is VI and tomorrow we double lynch him, don't we also lose? We're are depending on the mafia for this lynch to work, and I don't really like it. Also, mafia wouldn't be killing who they believe to be townies, and BM is definitely not playing like he is blue This analysis is junk and you know it is too. I don't get this magical intuition of yours. It sounds like you just made this up on the spot.
Only thing that's nagging me is that Pandian just bandwagoned you. And Pandian for some reason has been bandwagoning whoever seems the most scummy at the moment. Who knows, maybe Pandian is right
The double lynch question Double lynch increases town Kp, it's like getting an extra day (okay there are some difference, ie we won't know the end result) We can a) Follow up on two leads. b) Kill Bill Murray and someone else in one day. VOTE DOUBLE LYNCH
On October 09 2010 09:34 kingjames01 wrote:Show nested quote +On October 09 2010 09:32 Pandain wrote: Reasons for double lynch
1. We'll have enough info from today's lynch, this whole well of info we already have, a dt check, BM's result, and possibly a medic save. 2.In case BM is mafia 3. In case there is no vigi(doubtful though) 4. We really need to start lowering the mafia kp To go through with this is a calculated risk though. We're leveraging the possibility to sacrifice 2 more players to the mafia. I don't know if I can go through with that. Note, Mafia killing has a 100% chance of hitting a townie. That's why town lynching is preferred
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CynanMachae and cSc have not voted
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On September 08 2010 13:30 BrownBear wrote: 2 Double Lynches remaining Interesting...
Anyways, why not use one now, we got a good plan to go with for BM
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On October 09 2010 11:54 kingjames01 wrote: I set my alarm so I could wake up before Day 2 ended and I went and checked the voting thread. I noticed that 4 players haven't put their votes in!! SINiquity, XeliN, kane]deth[ and cSc
There's no way that all 4 of you are mafia. DON'T GET MODKILLED! VOTE!!!!!! Remember even if you vote for or against Double Lynching it doesn't count as your lynch vote.
You still need to vote! If you guys lose the game for us tonight I am going to freak out.
cSc is the only one who hasn't voted yet.
On October 09 2010 11:48 SiNiquity wrote:Show nested quote +On October 09 2010 11:41 LSB wrote:On September 08 2010 13:30 BrownBear wrote: 2 Double Lynches remaining Interesting... Anyways, why not use one now, we got a good plan to go with for BM Wait. So we're double lynching just to lynch BM "for free" tomorrow? That's why I voted for double lynch. See this post http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=151150¤tpage=37#733
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I looked at the votes for both days, and it's all over the place.
A few general things I found
1) No one was on both the Day1 and Day2 bandwagon 2) Basically everyone did not make a safe vote both days (by safe, I mean they were the only one voting for someone)
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Just saying, I voted for Misder a lot earlier than Pandian did.... o.o
+ Show Spoiler +On October 08 2010 06:23 LSB wrote:Show nested quote +On October 08 2010 04:02 DoctorHelvetica wrote: Also I need to put pressure on Misder again.
You're not getting away with being inactive this time buddy. Where is the evidence for your original accusations? Why did you fingerpoint and run away? Why did you fingerpoint, call out other players for not backing up their accusations, then go inactive without backing up your accusations?
I might have changed my vote to Xelin for the time being but you're still under fire here. Glad to. Okay, First of all, I did a quick read through. There is no Opz - Misder connection. + Show Spoiler +Then suddenly misder posts this... On October 06 2010 09:22 Misder wrote: Actually, I’m just going to vote ~Opz~ right now instead of XeliN, just because of this tiny suspicion. I don’t know if I truly believe in that he is mafia, but I think he has a better chance at being mafia than XeliN. ... What? Show nested quote +On October 05 2010 13:03 Misder wrote:On October 05 2010 12:47 ~OpZ~ wrote: I'd rather you post your suspects now Mr. Misder?
What if mafia slay you at night?
=/ I think I rather wait. First, my suspicions aren't really big; they could be comepletely wrong, and I don't really have strong evidence. Plus, I'm still looking at different play styles from previous games. Second, this way, the mafia doesn't know whether I'm right or wrong, so if they really are scared, they're going to have to kill me If you guys really want, I'll post my suspicions, maybe to generate discussion or something on day 1. Which reminds me, how do we decide which inactive to lynch? I made this mistake last game, I fingerpointed when I was mafia. The problem was that I didn't have that good of an argument to start off with. I just did a "I'm pretty sure that they are mafia" Misder, can you elaborate for us who do you think is scummy? I know you mentioned Infun, but your analysis was shaky and wrong.
+ Show Spoiler +On October 09 2010 11:18 LSB wrote:Show nested quote +On October 08 2010 10:51 Misder wrote:I'm actually surprised not too many people are voting for me, considering the fact that I did contridict myself twice; once when I said that I vote with reason (well technically I did... intuition and my limited knowledge on how mafia players work) and once when I said that mafia members are the ones who die out into the thread (which I basically disappeared from). I'm such a good target for the mafia to start a bandwagon. I don't know if this is a good thing that the town is not impulsive or a bad thing that the town doesn't really like to do analysis... (well ghrur did, and i think he makes good points). And pretty much yeah, I took a shot in the dark, and I think I pretty much shot myself instead. Well this is what I had a while ago, but I never posted "~Opz~ Ok, I’m looking at him from the perspective of Mafia XXX, the most recent normal game. In this game ~Opz~ was tracker. I guess this isn’t the most amazing analysis, and most people also act differently from a green townie and a blue, but I’ll try. In day 1, as a blue ~Opz~ told the town what to do, coming up with plans, participating in the actual crux of what was going on. On August 07 2010 02:26 ~OpZ~ wrote: Okay. Vigi should claim Day 2 IMO because he can't use his night kill til night 2. The vigi can openly suggest his target, meds protect target. If 2 people die that night, and dude is protected from a hit then BAM, we have a huge circle formed with meds confirming the vigi, DT's can openly claim to vigi or use a mouth, Bus Driver should stay hidden I feel...except to maybe the meds.
And if it is a mafia ploy? We'd have netted two mafia. The fake vigi claimer, and the dude who was hit by the vigi because he would have to have been protected. All medics should protect the guy getting vigi'd so they get the protection message, or mafia would have to use all KP to stop the plan, GIVING us quite a few more days... He never actually contributes in this game on Day 1, just blames all of the newcomers." So my analysis of him before was when he was a blue role, pretty much irrelevant... I didn't look back at games even older, when I should have. When I actually looked at him more in dept than my intuition and one day of the game where he was blue, I've come to a conclusion that ~Opz~ is most likely town. This is his quote from Mafia XXIII where he was actually townie. On July 18 2010 15:34 ~OpZ~ wrote:On July 18 2010 08:12 Jayme wrote:On July 18 2010 08:03 iNfuNdiBuLuM wrote: RNG lynch is dumb because you have more of a chance to land on a townie, and then he could be a helpful townie.
if we lynch an inactive we're killing someone who probably would not have helped us anyway
however, i don't want to lynch someone that would just get modkilled since that's obviously a waste.
Bill, how many votes can someone miss before they get zapped? As far as I know they can't miss any votes at all. We have more of a chance to land on a townie with any day 1 method we choose simply due to the fact that there are 24 townies and 6 mafia...there is no way of avoiding this. As a matter of fact I would say we have a better chance of hitting a good red player through RNG because I mean...who's to say that this "good townie" isn't just a red being a good townie. I understand lynching an inactive is killing someone who wouldn't have helped anyway but you're still doing just that...just about guaranteeing a green lynch which is completely pointless. As I said before I'm willing to go with either, there isn't much we could do. The issue I see with RNG is verifying if it's actually RNG. Actually....I'm done for this....Let me read a little more and we'll see who I want to die.... Also, I'm tired of these idiotic plans. We can pm. Dt, check someone PM them, pass turn, check someone PM them and the other person, pass turn. Quit playing like idiots and realize the benefits of having PMs....Nubby ass mafioso. And go back and look at games with PM's day one, no body does anything that day... The best thing I could say is everyone Roleclaim to me, and lynch me today...Or wait til tomorrow and do it. I'd inform of match ups, over counts, and die out as proof. How does that sound? I can send the PM out, and inform before death of everyone who doesn't respond, over counts of roles, ect. ect. I could be checked night one if that would be a problem, (wouldn't recommend organized multi checking though) and lynched day 2. Even if I was god father, god father would be out and too many blues to snipe with a list of roles and over claims. *yawn* But I don't really wanna die too bad, or abuse how easy this game could be. ~Opz~ has a condescending tone this mafia game, just like he does in this game. When I was reading through his posts in XXIII, its mostly yelling at people. Also, I believe that he is town because of he said that Artanis wrote Townie on his PM. If he was mafia, he wouldn't make such a huge claim. As for BM, I believe that he is VI. BM spammed most of Mafia XXX also, and he was ninja then. Question, what is the point of using an important vig shot on a supposed VI? Can't we just not lynch the VI and be done with? Or are we just afraid that then, mafia members can pose as VI and not get lynched? So question: Can't the mafia not kill BM if they believe that BM is not VI? Also, if BM is VI and tomorrow we double lynch him, don't we also lose? We're are depending on the mafia for this lynch to work, and I don't really like it. Also, mafia wouldn't be killing who they believe to be townies, and BM is definitely not playing like he is blue This analysis is junk and you know it is too. I don't get this magical intuition of yours. It sounds like you just made this up on the spot. Only thing that's nagging me is that Pandian just bandwagoned you. And Pandian for some reason has been bandwagoning whoever seems the most scummy at the moment. Who knows, maybe Pandian is right The double lynch questionDouble lynch increases town Kp, it's like getting an extra day (okay there are some difference, ie we won't know the end result) We can a) Follow up on two leads. b) Kill Bill Murray and someone else in one day. VOTE DOUBLE LYNCH Show nested quote +On October 09 2010 09:34 kingjames01 wrote:On October 09 2010 09:32 Pandain wrote: Reasons for double lynch
1. We'll have enough info from today's lynch, this whole well of info we already have, a dt check, BM's result, and possibly a medic save. 2.In case BM is mafia 3. In case there is no vigi(doubtful though) 4. We really need to start lowering the mafia kp To go through with this is a calculated risk though. We're leveraging the possibility to sacrifice 2 more players to the mafia. I don't know if I can go through with that. Note, Mafia killing has a 100% chance of hitting a townie. That's why town lynching is preferred I voted for him because his analysis was junk. Turns out I was wrong about him :S
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I'm going to vote for Bill Murray. Unless of course, Bill Murray pipes up about why he isn't dead
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On October 10 2010 14:05 ~OpZ~ wrote: I took a hit last night. Vet? Or Bulletproof? Or doc?
On October 10 2010 14:32 Divinek wrote:Show nested quote +On October 10 2010 14:18 SiNiquity wrote:Annnd now no one's been poisoned. :o On October 10 2010 14:05 ~OpZ~ wrote: I took a hit last night. err what? it's possible that mafia could poison someone and just have one of their members claim they took a hit you know. Not saying i think that's the case atm, i've generally seen opz in a pretty good light this game, but don't jump to conclusions so easily! We'll find that out by tomorrow. Anyways its a dumb idea for mafia to claim to be hit. If a person is poisoned tomorrow, we can easily lynch OpZ
Basically we know that OpZ is blue. Unless of course doc protected him, but I don't know if he gets notification
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On October 10 2010 12:50 Artanis[Xp] wrote: If a person is saved by a medic, both he and the medic will be notified. If a person is poisoned, they will not know until they die the next day, unless a medic saves him/her. Oh nevermind. But it would be nice OpZ if you would claim.
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On October 10 2010 13:24 Divinek wrote:NOOOOO PANDAIN, as much as I hate your fadoodles at least you play this game with heart! I will seek to avenge you my brother Now lets look at this motherfucker kane, I know there’s not much to look at lol Show nested quote +On October 06 2010 06:25 kane]deth[ wrote: Due to school, I can really only post around this time.
Just making a post to indicate my activeness, will edit or post again later with thoughts after reading the thread.
Edit: So I'm not sure what content I must post to be not lynched so I suppose I'll just give my opinion on the RNGing lynching of inactives. I think it'll be a good idea as long as we're not lynching any modkills for obvious reasons. I personally don't contribute much and might be considered inactive, but thats because of my inexperience. >: So I think that at least pressuring people to post more is a good idea. Flat out giving us his excuse that he’s not gonna contribute much and be inactive, ie ANTI town. An argument could be made for town neutrality but that would require content from him. This is not an original idea btw, he’s literally parroting about 3 other people at this point. Show nested quote +On October 06 2010 06:45 kane]deth[ wrote:On October 06 2010 06:31 kingjames01 wrote:On October 06 2010 06:25 kane]deth[ wrote: Due to school, I can really only post around this time.
Just making a post to indicate my activeness, will edit or post again later with thoughts after reading the thread. Just saw this and wanted to make sure you DON'T EDIT your post. Just make a new post. Welcome to the game! =) And I've just made a huge mistake >: Guilty conscience? I imagine his mafia buddies yelled at him for that one Show nested quote +On October 07 2010 10:26 kane]deth[ wrote: I have no idea what to do once again. The more I try to find suspicious people, the more I think everyone is suspicious. I suppose I'll just keep reading and see if anyone really jumps out at me ._. Time and time I have seen new mafia players try this card out. They are confused, they don’t know what to do, this prevents them from having to put forward any of their own ideas because they know they are quite likely to slip up in ways they haven’t even thought of yet. Newbie town players are quite often FEARLESS, they know they got nothing to hide and they get into this game because they are EXCITED to get those mafia! NOT SCARED, why would you be scared if you were town? Then he apologizes for not voting blah blah more guilty conscience fuel Show nested quote +On October 08 2010 09:57 kane]deth[ wrote: So I am currently voting for Misder as the proof that others have posted on him seems more reasonable than the accusations against any other player currently. The plan on getting rid of BM seems reasonable as well, but most of the analysis today has been wasted on what to do with him instead of finding Reds. Xelin seemed quick to bandwagon with BM but besides that he doesn't seem to be very suspicious. He could've just been slow on realizing how ridiculous BM's plans and not just bandwagoning for a kill. See that bolded word there? Yeah that’s right, OTHERs so if it goes bad (which it did) then he can go WELL I DIDN’T WANNA DO IT, but you guys presented such good arguments I agreed! Not my fault! It’s deflection at the most basic level Get rid of bm blah everyone already said that. Jumping on xelin too, everyone else did that. I mean this stuff would be fine to do of his own accord, but he’s just repeating everything that’s already been said. This is KEY because he can’t be caught for spewing bullshit because none of it is his own Show nested quote +On October 08 2010 09:59 kane]deth[ wrote: Also note that I have no idea how these players have played in previous games, so I can't make references like that, or if something is strange or off about someone's playstyle. More I don’t know bullshit, as in don’t expect me to do things, to be useful. Blah blah im sick of your excuses. Show nested quote +On October 08 2010 10:21 kane]deth[ wrote: I suppose proof was a bad word to use there. The accusations that he made against the 'higher tier' players baselessly and his general aggression. Basically the post that Ghrur made. Currently he's just making trouble by trying to lynch players at seemingly random.
I'm also lost on one thing; is the only way to find a players posts is to find a post of the player and then click profile? I love seeing this tactic. He apologizes, then puts up some shit justification and THEN he adds a question to the end of his post, as questions always take up everything you’re thinking about because you immediately try to answer that question and almost seemingly forget what you just read lol, quality double fake of the old flame fanning. Show nested quote +On October 09 2010 12:07 kane]deth[ wrote: I had voted for Double Lynch already, as we would be able to lynch BM. Yuh yuh guys I agree with you don’t get angry with me im doing wut u asked. DIE Also as a little tidbit rol almost replaced this dude, look at rols only post in that entire time Show nested quote +On October 06 2010 16:00 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: HAI GUYS
SO U NO IM IN THIS GAME NOW SO I WILL POST LATER AFTER I READ. Excuse for inactivity followed up by NOTHING. Sorry kane you’re not going to continue coasting by unnoticed. There’s nothing but wifom trying to draw away from if it was because of you on his list that pandain was killed or not, but one thing I do know, you’ve been doing fuck all for us and I have a pretty good idea why. You’re getting my vote, I will avenge you pandain! Firstly, my problems with your analysis I wouldn't really call kane]deth[ that experienced (wasn't the only other game he played he got modkilled?) Therefore we have to accept his excuses of being noobish as reality. And don't blame him for all his questions, my first two games I had lots of those in my posts And as you know, one of the posts was RoL, I'm not going to judge kane]deth[ off of RoL
Next, I'm going to do some analysis of my own At the same time though, newcomers have giant "I'm Townie" lables on their posts, because of how they play. "I'm Townie" traits-
- Does a lot, like over the weekends, they unleash huge torrents of spam/planning/accusations
- Relys on own analysis. Has sort of the "I don't trust anyone" appeal.
- (A continuation) They vote with good reasons, or abstain
kane]deth[ has been horrendously bad at doing any of this. His posts are all pretty cautious, he freerides off of other people's thoughts
He actually initially voted for Misder, pushing the bandwagon
On October 09 2010 12:19 kane]deth[ wrote: ##Vote Misder And then afterwards he switches to Xelin, even though he's pretty convinced on misder. This screams wishy-washy to me
Kane]deth[ please roleclaim
Problems with my analysis: It could just be bad play / he doesn't really care.
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