TL Mafia XXVII - Page 3
Forum Index > TL Mafia |
AcrossFiveJulys
United States3612 Posts
| ||
AcrossFiveJulys
United States3612 Posts
I had very little opinion on the matter that would've meant anything. It's irrelevant. If you really want to know, I'm incredibly busy because I'm graduating this weekend. Once it's sunday I'll be active as normal, but I told Incognito if I were to play I'd be a bit inactive the first day or so. I glad you're trying to seek out inactive people and figure things out, but you need to concern yourself with more pressing matters, like which of the blues that claimed so far is lying. Would you really believe 4 blues would claim all on the first day all based off of some one paragraph plan that wasn't even thoroughly discussed? As a townie, you should be more concerned about the current situation. Worry about me in 2 days (real life days I mean). Of course you can still PM me, just don't expect a response in a timely manner for another 48 hours. ----------------------------------------- Original Message: who do you think should be lynched today? why are you so quiet? | ||
AcrossFiveJulys
United States3612 Posts
The possible scenarios right now are MooCow and ludwig are both detectives or 1 of MooCow, Ludwig are detective 1 are veteran. I didn't include the scenario where 1 or both are role claim faking because it doesn't seem likely that a mafioso would risk there being exactly 1 detective or exactly 1 veteran but not both (otherwise there'd be 3 role claimed detectives and clearly 1 would be lying). I also didn't include the other clearly improbable scenarios. MooCow detective, Ludwig detective: The only way I would turn out to be mafia is if both of them are either naiive or insane. This seems improbable. 1 detective, 1 veteran: If I'm mafia, this would imply that we have one naiive or insane detective. We won't gain much from lynching me because if I flip townie that will only say that our detective is either naiive or sane. Furthermore, we won't know whether to trust ludwig or moocow's findings because we won't know which is the detective unless they both decide to reveal their roles. This undesirable situation is a result of L's rather myopic plan. I hope this justifies going after other targets besides me today (hopefully going after someone that seems suspicious from their voting and posting behavior) since lynching me would provide minimal help and waste a townie and a lynch. | ||
AcrossFiveJulys
United States3612 Posts
On June 13 2010 17:00 LuDwig- wrote: ahh this post makes me smile. Why? Because you are not saying:"Mafia we will find you" but "Please don't lynch me!" I really understand you! XD I *think* what you are trying to say is that I am defending myself rather than going after mafia. If this is the case, then I would ask you to read my last 20 posts in this thread and then see if you still feel that way. I am just trying to show that lynching me at this point is irrational, and trying to push the town into a more productive direction. | ||
AcrossFiveJulys
United States3612 Posts
On June 13 2010 20:15 Radfield wrote: You seem to have left out one obvious option. You are mafia, with the roleblocker on your team, possibly even the roleblocker. You know your back is up against the wall and that you're a prime lynch target for day 2, so you don't roleblock anyone to gain some credibility. This seems quite likely to me, as it makes absolutely no sense for the mafia to have roleblocked you. Smacks of desperation. I already addressed that possibility in an earlier post. Sure, it's possible from your viewpoint and I encourage you to keep it in mind. Again, I have to disagree with your analysis. First off, we have a tracker, watcher, medic and two dt's, and a minimum of SIX days to find only 4 mafia in a 17 person game. That is insanely unbalanced for the town even if mafia have a godfather, roleblocker and dayvig. How do you balance that out? By putting in some nasty sanities for the DT's. You think it unlikely, but with a tracker and watcher around, I think it VERY likely that both are DT's have funky sanities. One being useless(naive) and one being insane sounds about right. Even assuming that some people are lying about their role, it still fits that we would have an insane DT. False. We know we have (had) a tracker and that is it. We may not have a medic or any of the other blue roles. Not to mention that I don't really trust Moocow at this point. No offense moocow, but a DT role is the perfect place for a mafia to hide, because you can never be held accountable "oops guys, I guess I'm naive". I agree with this. So how is lynching me going to help, then, genuis? Especially since we have no way of knowing whether MooCow or Ludwig are actually detectives? It is very important that we lynch AFJ, because we really need to start narrowing down the sanities. The entire plan was to lynch AFJ regardless of what the alignment checks came back as. The fact is, AFJ STILL seems completely scummy to me and worthy of a lynching anyways. Not to mention that he's done a ton of posting, so if he flips red we can glean a lot of info from his posts. There was no such plan from the beginning, it was only suggested (by me actually) when ludwig said he'd be role checking me. What about my posting is screaming scummy to you radfield? That being said, we should still be doing post analysis on people. I went through the thread last night and a few people jumped out a me, but we can talk about them once AFJ is out of the way. ##Vote: AcrossFiveJulys (for effect) I have no idea why you are so deadset on lynching me. All that is going to happen is I flip green and you still won't have a clue about which of ludwig/moocow are detectives and/or their sanities (they could be naiive or insane). Think logically about what kind of information will be obtained and whether that is worth wasting a townie and a lynch. If people are convinced that I'm mafia due to my posting and voting behavior, then fine, that's enough reason to lynch me. But doing so to reduce uncertainly about our "detectives" is nonsense. | ||
AcrossFiveJulys
United States3612 Posts
| ||
AcrossFiveJulys
United States3612 Posts
On June 14 2010 04:37 flamewheel wrote: Another kicker—we can’t be sure if meeple actually watched or not, since he did not announce results. But I want to assume he’s the Watcher. If he isn’t, I’m sure we can tie him down in the future. Just woke up, nice analysis flamewheel, just want to comment on this: meeple claimed that he watched ludwig and now knows the identity of the medic. | ||
AcrossFiveJulys
United States3612 Posts
On June 14 2010 01:52 ~OpZ~ wrote: He was role blocked. How many of you realized townies were pm'd if they were role blocked. I mean it seems kinda weird he would be role blocked, but why isn't it possible? Better question is why didn't the watcher watch him anyway? (Whoever said we didn't know if a med was in the game, meeple said the med visited ludwig last night). I've been thinking about why I was role blocked, and it makes more sense now. Clearly if the watcher watches the person who gets role blocked, we catch a mafioso. With 4 confirmed blues, and the mafia not knowing for sure which blue is which (so they couldn't just role block the watcher), it makes it very risky for them to role block one of the blues for fear that our watcher will happen to watch the role blockie. So they decided to just try to role block the medic through an educated guess (does my posting behavior come across as medicy?). Now, they did take a risk in hitting tree.hugger, since if meeple was watching tree.hugger he'd have seen who killed him. But I think they didn't want to take a high risk - low reward with their role blocker. | ||
AcrossFiveJulys
United States3612 Posts
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/profile.php?user=AcrossFiveJulys after you jizz your pants upon reading my posts, replace my name with your desired searchee | ||
AcrossFiveJulys
United States3612 Posts
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/search.php?q=&t=c&f=-1&u=AcrossFiveJulys&gb=date | ||
AcrossFiveJulys
United States3612 Posts
| ||
AcrossFiveJulys
United States3612 Posts
On June 14 2010 07:43 Foolishness wrote: Does anybody else feel like this post was scripted? It reminds me of PYP mafia when Radfield pretended to be saved by a medic even though he had no way of knowing he was saved (and he turned out to be the Assassin). Starting with the positives, it's good that you claimed to be role blocked as that potentially reveals your innocence. It's good that yes, this could mean your death will help us figure out the detectives alignment. But now I'm really curious. Of particular notice to me was the time stamps on the posts: Assuming Incognito didn't tell you night action until day post went up, you busted out your claim there in a whopping 9 minutes. That seems to me like you were waiting for the post to come up before posting your claim of being roleblocked. It was late in my lab and I was f5'ing the thread in between analyzing my experiments. I'm not denying you got roleblocked, I'm saying you're mafia, and the mafia purposely roleblocked you to try to save you. Consider this, Ludwig announces that he's rolechecking AFJ, for whatever reason. Ludwig seems to be a spur-of-the-moment kinda guy, so let's think about what happens. Assuming AFJ is mafia, the mafia team upon reading Ludwig's post is going to be all "shit shit shit what do we do". They know MooCow still had to send in his hit as well so that puts them in a very very awkward scenario. With two detectives, AFJ is going to get crosschecked. If one of the results turn up mafia, then he's going to almost certainly die, no matter what his alignment in. Mafia know this, so they try to come up with a plan to try to save AFJ. The way they can do that is by roleblocking AFJ. AFJ can claim in the thread that he got roleblocked, and even if detectives give him a mafia, he will be spared (hopefully). so in this scenario where I'm mafia and the mafia is trying to figure out how to save me, the only way this plan would actually save me is if both rolechecks come up green? Sounds like a great plan to me. Which seems great and dandy except the mafia have absolutely no reason to roleblock AFJ. The mafia know AFJ is getting cross checked, why would they bother to roleblock him? Especially considering four blues claimed in the thread. Even if the mafia predecided "k we're sniping tree.hugger no matter what" there's no reason why they would not choose to roleblock meeple. Meeple, is the only one who claimed watcher, and thus the mafia can be assured that the identity of the roleblocker will not be revealed if they roleblock him. The only way things could go badly if there's another watcher (seems unlikely given 2 cops) or if tree.hugger doesn't die and happens to track the roleblocker. Seeing as how the plan was for him to track one of the two DT's, or possibly meeple, that wouldn't happen. the mafia clearly didn't want to take the risk that meeple actually wasn't the watcher. maybe they thought the town's plan was to bait the role blocker into blocking meeple when meeple isn't actually the watcher. Given that the mafia chose not roleblocking meeple, which would have been nearly 100% safe for them to do, tells us that something is wrong. Plus, out of all people, why block AFJ? Does anyone think he's done anything to merit being a possible blue. Except it doesn't make sense for the mafia to suspect that. Nor does it make sense to roleblock the person the DTs are checking. You put a lot of emphasis on this point in your first post and in this one. You knew that you were getting roleblocked so you say this sort of thing to prove your innocence. You say "Of course, there is the possibility that if I was mafia, mafia could waste a role block on me to create this exact situation to prevent me from being lynched" to try to prove yourself innocent. Did you really think that situation through in under 9 minutes after you received the PM that you got roleblocked? It took me a while to realize that something was odd about the roleblock and that the explanation that you are mafia is the only thing that makes sense. You being able to process all that through in 9 minutes is quite impressive... when you spend every day working in machine learning research analyzing a simple situation like "why did i get role blocked last night" in 9 minutes isn't exactly a huge feat. Most people if they got roleblock would probably not claim immediately and be like "shit shit what do I do? Mafia want me dead...shit shit". I would expect said person would not claim until after multiple people have posted saying "yes, if you got roleblocked, please claim in the thread". Jumping the gun and posting you got blocked is wayyy too odd. Well, people were already accusing me of being mafia on day 1. I thought it would be pertinent information, and that releasing it right after the night was over would make it obvious that I didn't just come up with it out of nowhere in the middle of day2 (like now) when people are on my case and it seems likely that I'll get lynched. People have already outlined the scenario that none of the DTs are normal. Given that there's already a watcher and a tracker, don't you think a normal DT would be a bit too good for the town? I don't think the results of the checks mean anything given that AFJ was roleblocked. I also never recall it being the plan for the watcher to watch the person who was getting checked by the DT. The plan was for the watcher/tracker to look at the DT's (or tracker to track the watcher). I don't remember reading anything about "k, DT's and watcher all go on same person". Overall, you getting roleblock makes no sense given the amount of roleclaims in the thread. You posting yourself getting blocked 9 minutes after day starts (and not to mention posting something that feels very scripted) does not follow a typical innocent attitude. I'll comment on this since you just posted it as well: The problem here is that the mafia could have roleblocked meeple without much worry. Sure, meeple could claim he was roleblocked, but he's the only one who claimed watcher. Furthermore roleblocking meeple would have halted our finding out about the innocence of our two DTs. I'm sure the mafia is happy about killing tree.hugger, but their choice not to roleblock meeple has apparently given rise to a powerful town circle of blues. Was it really worth it for them to waste their roleblock like that? Definitely not. you're just repeating yourself here. see my response above. It's a bigger risk for the mafia to try to kill tree.hugger than to try to roleblock meeple (or tree.hugger for that matter). As outlined before, the only way roleblocking meeple would turn out bad is if tree.hugger decided to be stupid and track some random guy. Knowing tree.hugger that's highly unlikely. Hitting tree.hugger is incredibly risky though. He has a good chance of being medic protected, and if he got protted the a big town circle would form. And although the plan was for meeple to watch a DT, meeple could have easily justified watching tree.hugger. (imagine this, day 2 started and meeple says "hey guys so I decided to watch tree.hugger, person X visited him so he must be mafia"). I'm pretty sure we would kill that person without much hesitation. Thus the mafia took a big risk in hitting tree.hugger; a risk that is definitely much bigger than roleblocking one of the claimed blues. And no, your posting is not medicy, it's mafiay. If you're indirectly trying to claim, best do it now. I'm not the medic. I told you in the PM you posted to keep PMing me. You didn't do that. I also sent this to AFJ upon finding he didn't respond to my PM: ----- No response to my earlier PM? How sad...I really thought you were innocent but now I'm second guessing my self... ----- And he still didn't respond. And I sent this awhile ago and keep expecting a response sooner or later given that he's posting in the thread. Why would he ignore me if he was innocent? Yeah how inviting your response was: + Show Spoiler + I had very little opinion on the matter that would've meant anything. It's irrelevant. If you really want to know, I'm incredibly busy because I'm graduating this weekend. Once it's sunday I'll be active as normal, but I told Incognito if I were to play I'd be a bit inactive the first day or so. I glad you're trying to seek out inactive people and figure things out, but you need to concern yourself with more pressing matters, like which of the blues that claimed so far is lying. Would you really believe 4 blues would claim all on the first day all based off of some one paragraph plan that wasn't even thoroughly discussed? As a townie, you should be more concerned about the current situation. Worry about me in 2 days (real life days I mean). Of course you can still PM me, just don't expect a response in a timely manner for another 48 hours. Wow it's so mafiaish that I didn't respond to someone who said they wouldn't respond in a timely manner for another 48 hours! I really don't know about you foolishness. It seems to me like you are trying to play off the suspicions that have been on me all game (and which somewhat dissipated earlier) to get me lynched. This is a mafia, a game of many unobservables, so placing someone into a role isn't that difficult, especially when you have a large collection of their posts (I bet I've been the most active in the thread) and an interesting event involving them at your disposal (me getting role blocked). That being said, you've come up with a rather unlikely scenario for me being mafia. Also, why is everyone so willing to believe that both of our detectives are naiive or insane? If anything, it seems like it would be most likely that at least one of the detectives is sane. The people championing the possibility that both detectives are broken should be analyzed, because that is classic "confuse the town" mafia behavior. | ||
AcrossFiveJulys
United States3612 Posts
+ Show Spoiler + ##vote AcrossFiveJulys to help confirm sanities. I may or may not muster up enough energy to do a pbpa of citizen/foolishness/meeple/moocow later so this vote is also here incase I don't make it back in time. People, if you are just looking at the last page of the thread, vote for me ONLY if you think I'm suspicious as mafia, NOT if you think it's going to reduce detective uncertainty. If I get lyched and flip green, you'll know that both detectives (or 1 if there's only 1) are naiive or sane. If I get lynched and flip red, you'll know that both detectives (or 1 if there's only 1) are insane or naiive. So guess what? This doesn't help much; either way they could still both (or the 1) be naiive. The only way to know for sure the detective(s) sanity after that will be if the detective happens to get back a red role check and you lynch them. Banking on that happening soon isn't smart. This is not a good plan for the town, people. | ||
AcrossFiveJulys
United States3612 Posts
| ||
AcrossFiveJulys
United States3612 Posts
On June 14 2010 09:30 Chezinu wrote: uhh, We still have 24 more hours.. Isn't day 48 hours this game? wait a minute it isn't night.. oh jesus I thought it ended tonight. nevermind. move along nothing to see here folks... | ||
AcrossFiveJulys
United States3612 Posts
On June 14 2010 10:36 L wrote: Foolishness, I have a problem. Your last defense is essentially: I hate people who give the town information. and I play anti-town every game (ignoring the fact that you've been mafia for the vast majority of your recent games). That's pretty fucked. I've finished the thing I mentioned earlier, so I'm pretty solid on the idea that we shouldn't kill you for today. That said, if we kill AFJ today and he flips red, you are 100% our next target. Uhhhh care to explain why lynching foolishness makes sense if I were to flip red? o_O | ||
AcrossFiveJulys
United States3612 Posts
On June 14 2010 10:38 Radfield wrote: This is simply not a good argument. Yes, it takes minimum two nights to figure out a detective's sanity, we all realize that. Night one we narrow it down to two possibilities. If you flip red, then we know that the detectives are either insane or naive. Now we get them to check someone who they trust to be town-aligned: A green result means they're naive, a red result insane. Bingo, we have the alignments down. It takes two nights, but it's worth it. Our medic and watcher should be able to scare off the mafia from taking down the blue roles(tree.hugger ) so we'll probably still have everyone on board by that time. Or, we don't lynch you, learn nothing about the sanities, and basically disregard our two detective roles as useless. Yes, a MINIMUM of 2 nights to learn the alignment of the detectives assuming they are telling the truth (this is a big assumption). After I flip green, that minimum is reached only if at least one of the detectives happens to get back a red rolecheck on the 2nd night. What is the likelihood of that? A better plan is to wait until a red role check is returned. Then, that red is lynched. If they flip green, they you can lynch me because you'll know one of the detectives is insane. If flip they red, then you'll know I'm clean. Tell me, genius, what disadvantage approaching it that way gives. Since mafia KP does not decrease (KP is always 1) there is no advantage to lynching me now rather than once red rolechecks come back (unless I'm the best mafia candidate the town can come up with). We should be assuming that detectives are sane but checking to make sure they are as we lynch people, not the other way around. Coming up with strategies that assume detectives are less likely to be sane (I'm looking at you, L, and radfield) is confusion-spreading mafia behavior. | ||
AcrossFiveJulys
United States3612 Posts
then don't shit on the thread with your useless, non-backed-up thoughts. | ||
AcrossFiveJulys
United States3612 Posts
On June 14 2010 10:59 L wrote: They're pretty useful because if I'm killed tonight after you're lynched, I'd rather that mafia members don't survive. If you actually are town, the statement would have been null to you anyways. Why are you taking every opportunity you have to try to make me look bad? I was interested in your reasoning behind that statement because it would be informative to know whether there is any semblance of logic behind why you want me lynched (allows me to know whether you are a mafia trying to bandwagon me or a townie who is overly paranoid). | ||
AcrossFiveJulys
United States3612 Posts
On June 14 2010 11:09 Foolishness wrote: As Radfield said, we need to learn something about the alignment of our DTs. You guys sort of half committed to this plan yesterday when it was decided everyone should roleclaim and coordinate DT checks. Yeah, I think you're mafia and I gave my reasoning and analysis. Even if I hadn't, we got to follow the plan and lynch you. Yeah, I know it's really fucked up and all, and I surely didn't vote for it, nor did I choose to have the DTs inspect you but that's how it is. Did you even read the post you quoted? I explained there that lynching me is clearly suboptimal; waiting to lynch me later if sufficient evidence arises is better. Pending all that, do you have someone you'd rather lynch? Yeah I know you want to kill me and L does too but anyone else? I mean, if you made a nice little post explaining how citizen is suspicious/inactive and then compare his attitude in this game to the past game where he was mafia (I'll just go ahead and tell you right now he's acting exactly the same), I could very easily be convinced to lynch him and not you. I don't think going after suspicious inactives would be a bad idea. I haven't been watching citizen, but vivi57 and redtooth have somewhat suspicious behavior. Hopefully I'll be able to take some time to do an analysis of those 2 (there isn't much content to go by) later tonight. Let's make a deal -- you analyze citizen and actually spend a few minutes reading my post explaining why lynching me isn't a good idea, and I'll do the 2 analyses I mentioned. | ||
| ||