For the detectives who role checked and the result is pro town, you have the option to use that person as your spoke person (it is very unlikely you got the godfather)
TL Mafia XXVI - Page 5
Forum Index > TL Mafia |
LunarDestiny
United States4177 Posts
For the detectives who role checked and the result is pro town, you have the option to use that person as your spoke person (it is very unlikely you got the godfather) | ||
LunarDestiny
United States4177 Posts
On June 06 2010 05:05 onihunter wrote: Based on past games, there are probably 2 medics and 2 detectives right? The probability that the mafia hit no medics/detectives: 17/21 * 16/20 * 15/19 = 51%. So there's about a 50% chance the mafia will hit at least one medic/detective. On June 06 2010 05:18 onihunter wrote: There's also a 73% no detectives are hit, so 27% chance that at least one is hit (about a quarter of the time). This probability will increase after each night until one is actually hit, so maybe detectives should use their role checks pretty quickly. Although 1/4 isn't very high, it's high enough that you can't just ignore it. 19/21 * 18/20 * 17/19 Again, I can confirm onihunter's math is correct. That is the mafia has 3 hit for night kill. As more people die, the chance of medics and detectives to die also increases and there is a significant chance that you might die the next day. Yes, people might think me as the godfather. But someone got to say this. | ||
LunarDestiny
United States4177 Posts
BRILLIANT: On June 06 2010 12:40 3 Lions wrote: TheGilaboy: Two clues point to him. The "hastily constructed barricades" and the "masked figure with knives". In his profile, he not only has a pic of a DT, but he also has the following quote: "2v2 Twilight Fortress you say? Mass DTs it is..." | ||
LunarDestiny
United States4177 Posts
| ||
LunarDestiny
United States4177 Posts
If I am the mafia, I will also take a look of this list and take out the high posting people. | ||
LunarDestiny
United States4177 Posts
1)They want to label me as a potential mafia. I asked for medic protection. (asking for town to waste a medic protection) Had been very active. (diverted attention from anti town claims) Told detective to use spoke person. (me being godfather and use me as their spoke person?) 2)Or they just don't want to target someone who asked for medic protection which might waste one of their kill. | ||
LunarDestiny
United States4177 Posts
This is the clue which points at Thegilaboy only. | ||
LunarDestiny
United States4177 Posts
| ||
LunarDestiny
United States4177 Posts
Number of post before day 2: 13 + Show Spoiler [post 1] + + Show Spoiler [post 2] + On June 04 2010 09:53 MTF wrote: There aren't many: barth AcrossFiveJulys Icysoul LaXerCannon supernovamaniac These are the only people who have yet to say anything so far. A few others have only made a single post. + Show Spoiler [post 3] + On June 04 2010 15:25 MTF wrote: I've actually been secretly hoping (and was briefly considering suggesting) that Crate would run, as he's the person I feel the most confidence in at the moment. I guess that this would be a good time to put out how I feel about each candidate at this point, based on several different things. YellowInk: Smart, reasonable. Has a decent plan for the first lynch. Is very responsive, which I'm not counting as a clear negative as many others seem to. I don't like the heavy "scum" accusations being thrown around, but it does serve it's purposes. Also provided good general advice for new/inexperienced players. Still platforming heavily on the clue aspect, which is really the only point of contention (well, that and the almost ad-esque "vote for YellowInk" at the end of many posts) I have with him at this point. DarthTheinAn: Also seems smart, as well as objective (which is a big plus) and geared towards organizing people. Has not been reactionary in a bad way and apparently checked out some of the people who voted for him as potentially being Mafia, due to the quick bandwagon effect that sprang up. I am a little worried about him due just to that fact, but it seems like the majority of the people who voted for him might have done so simply due to recent games together. More or less contending with YellowInk for my vote right now. Zeks: Got a little too much flak for a simple mistake early on. Has an alright plan to open. Seems like a middle-road choice to me right now, vote will currently fall between him and BrownBear should the first two arouse sufficient suspicion. BrownBear: Reasoning is sound, but the later arrival, backing of the already-early-bandwagoned DarthTheinAn, and (most importantly) the specific gunning for the role of Pardoner all make me feel very cautious. Pardoner is even more dangerous of a role for Mafia to grab than Mayor is, simply because of the ability to stop a critical lynch, even with a sure death to follow. All told, I'm hoping for more discussion (and for Crate to randomly decide to run ). + Show Spoiler [post 4] + On June 06 2010 04:23 MTF wrote: Though I won't quite say "post or you suck", I will join YellowInk in begging for activeness amongst town. I understand that there might not be a lot to say yet, especially if you're new to the game, but investing a little time to even just comment on what other people are saying helps. You may not have been given a blue role, but that doesn't mean the game is going to be boring for you. And going inactive just because you don't have night actions/passive abilities is far worse for town than if town just didn't have any blue roles at all. An active town has a lot of power. And we can't really win without it, because otherwise everything turns into bandwagoning on the vote just to avoid getting mod-killed. Which could be very dangerous, should such occur without critical thinking/actual reading of the thread. As will be pretty much customary, I'll be back on a few hours after the next Day post comes up. In case I'm dead and can't say it then, something to keep in mind: Just because a person claims to be hit last night and only two people died, doesn't mean they were. Mafia can stack hits, and while it would be ultimately unwise to do so, they might be tempted to throw the Godfather out there in an attempt to infiltrate any blossoming town-circles. So, as always, exercise caution. | ||
LunarDestiny
United States4177 Posts
Post 1:He called out decafchicken as mafia. Post 2:He considered barth (dead), AcrossFiveJulys, Icysoul, LaXerCannon, supernovamaniac as inactive. Post 3:Felt very neutral towards the running candidates. Post 4:Hinted that he got a blue role. | ||
LunarDestiny
United States4177 Posts
| ||
LunarDestiny
United States4177 Posts
| ||
LunarDestiny
United States4177 Posts
| ||
LunarDestiny
United States4177 Posts
Mafia KP = (# of Mafia / 2) rounded up. Max KP = 3, Min KP = 1 Current Mafia KP = 3 That means during each night, the mafia has the ability to killing to up 3 townies. The quicker we get their number down to 4. We can save one person per day. | ||
LunarDestiny
United States4177 Posts
You see that"#" thing next to "quote." Click on it and look at the address bar above. | ||
LunarDestiny
United States4177 Posts
I went digging up posts from Deucegladlier's posts on this thread and other thread his posted on (mostly on the k-pop thread. I noticed Deucegladlier's posts on this thread is pretty poor and the analysis are not that useful. But if you look at his posts on the k-pop thread, it is much better and sometimes he even writes a good paragraph. | ||
LunarDestiny
United States4177 Posts
TheGilaboy(3): LaXerCannon, pyr0ma5ta, CompX. Deucegladlier(3):Deucegladlier, YellowInk, crate. It is highly likely that either one lynch target is mafia. Ignoring Deucegladlier's self voting since it is not logical. We have three more inactive players voting for TheGilaboy and two more active and better posters voting for Deucegladlier. This makes me farther suspects that Deucegladlier is a possible mafia since: 1)Inactive players are voting against active players. 2)TheGilaboy which I consider as average in term of activeness and quality postings vs. Deucegladlier who is very inactive and a bad poster. I am not saying that LaXerCannon, pyr0ma5ta, and CompX are mafia. I am saying if the mafia want to divert our attention and starts a bandwagon, they want to vote early for a suspicious, pro town target. | ||
LunarDestiny
United States4177 Posts
| ||
LunarDestiny
United States4177 Posts
I check edday 1 voting of Deucegladlier, LaXerCannon, pyr0ma5ta, CompX and I noticed that they are almost the last few voters of the mayor election. Further proving that they might be mafia together... | ||
LunarDestiny
United States4177 Posts
Again, I am not saying you guys are mafia. I am pointing out consistency in voting behavior. If we lynch DeuceGladlier and he turns mafia. Our next lead will be LaXerCannon, pyr0ma5ta, and CompX. Because of the voting behavior in additional of the previous mentioned reason for DeuceGladlier being mafia. I will now cast my vote on lynching DeuceGladlier. | ||
| ||