On February 16 2010 05:43 Foolishness wrote:Show nested quote +On February 16 2010 04:45 Iaaan wrote:On February 15 2010 17:30 Foolishness wrote:On February 15 2010 15:31 Zato-1 wrote:On February 15 2010 12:15 Bill Murray wrote: the only problem with your analysis, though, my friend... is that you're already thinking from the perspective of an opposing mafia. Why? WHY ZATO? Game theory. When you have dynamic decision-making, in which the outcome of my decisions depends upon the decisions you take, the correct way to approach the problem is to determine your optimal course of action first, and once I know what you're going to do and therefore the payoff of each of my own choices, only then do I start looking at what is the optimal course of action for myself. Sorry for the completely off-topic post, but I actually love game theory. Prisoner's dilemma and all that shiz- the very same reasoning that brought me to the conclusion, many pages ago, that mafia will mostly be lurking, so we should focus less on the really active players and more on those who are making shitty, short and content-free posts, and also on those who aren't posting at all. Yes yes, let's please focus on those who aren't contributing. Multiple people have stated that it's going to be very easy for mafia to hide among the shadows this game (mostly due to the large number of people and subsequent lack of posting from a bunch of them). I read these posts where people are saying "oh if so and so is mafia, then x and y are also mafia as well. Or if we kill this person and he turns up green, then these three people must all be mafia". Get real guys, mafia aren't out here sabotaging the election or anything. They are sitting by having fun reading the thread and posting their votes when needed. On February 15 2010 15:54 Amber[LighT] wrote: You guys are exhausting your fingers with this Ace bullshit. No one trusts Ace, but we don't all fight him...
Also this whole bill.murray thing should be looked at a bit more carefully. Chezinu and foolishness out of nowhere voting for this guy? And we have about 20 abstains and the highest votes are Ver and Citizen with 4, which is crying for a vote swing from either mafia family.
Also people who post a lot of nonsense should be careful. Just because the someone showed you're posting a lot, doesn't validate your alliance to the town any more than someone who isn't posting a lot. (I'm saying this because reading 20+ pages of bullshit really sucks) Bill Murray is the safest option to be in office as he is the most likely to be on the townside. Chezinu is just as likely, but Chezinu is prone to fuck ups so we don't want to put him in office. And might I suggest the 5 line rule to you as well. If on any post the writer does not produce at least 5 lines of his own creation, don't read the post. Chances are nothing important was said. Nobody Cares Syndrome is affecting many people in this game. Iaaan has never said anything worthwhile this game yet so I'd go ahead and ignore anything he says as well. I'm noticing this because its me that your are talking about; you are singling me out as a useless poster, when in my view at least, there are plenty of other more useless posters. While I admit alot of my posts were dumb, I have made a few that are worth reading (specifically on page 41), yet you ignore those ones and single me out as an idiot. People will have their own opinion on what this means, and I don't want to revenge accuse, but it is worth pointing out. In regards to the godfather, it isn't likely for them to choose anyone who will potentially be lynched/killed in the night 1/day 2 post or anyone who may be elected. This basically rules out L, Ace, Redtooth, Empyrean, and some other people who I'm too lazy to think of, but you know who they are. This is important because it makes them good choices for role checks; they are potentially mafia leaders, without protected identities. (these next few things are less important/useless) I'm leaning less towards Redtooth being mafia, and by extension a little less towards Ace, but I think that Redtooth has made some reasonable posts. Still suspicious, but I was considering lynching Empyrean instead (even if I'm not sure what information can be gained from killing him, mafia or not), and seeing Ver's post consolidated that. I see why people (foolishness/Redtooth) were voting for Bill Murray, I'm pretty sure he isn't mafia, but I still don't agree with electing him, with all his useless spamming. I like Ver and Citi.zens posts/plans. NOBODY CARES!
For someone who complains about shit posting, the vast majority of your posts contain only "NOBODY CARES!"
They're not going to change just because you tell them to... case in point Chez's new post that seems just to be a collection of his old posts...
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On February 16 2010 21:28 Ver wrote:I wish I had more time to work with this list but I'm overtired as it is and don't have time to finish the analysis on a few othesr. So I'm putting it out there now and hopefully people can add on and I can fine tune it after I wake up. Do not Protect List:Bloodyc0bbler:+ Show Spoiler [Initial accusation] +On February 14 2010 10:58 Ver wrote:Time to start things rolling. My primary suspect for the first lynch is Bloodyc0bbler. Obviously he's only posted twice since the game started, an election post and another useless psot. BC runs for election quite a bit. I've taken the liberty of gathering up his previous election campaigns so you can compare them. + Show Spoiler [Chuiu's game 5 as Townie] +On March 17 2009 17:18 BloodyC0bbler wrote: Ok everyone, unlike the flashy gimicks of caller, I offer substance to my platform!.
to start with heres my portfolio.
Name: BloodyC0bbler Mafia experience: 5(6 if you count callers as two go's), 1 game run, 1 game co hosted
Looking at just the one stat alone, I have the experience to lead this town to victory! In mafia 2, I was town aligned and we won, mafia 3 we as town dominated the mafia, mafia 4 was ruined by a jerkoff so well, can't really say much there. Tracils game ended early, but my side was winning. Callers first game ended day one with VI win, and his second game I as VI won.
I have a high precident of winning the games on the side im part of, with ability, and luck like that, I would be an obvious goodluck charm for the town.
Now, witha ll the extra things I do on TL (PX, Location thread, etc...) You guys know I spend way to much time here, giving me the most amount of time to really jump ontop of things, I can analyze clues well which is helpful in your sheriff.
That is my background,
As for what I will do for the town to win.
As sheriff or mayor, I will help guide the town where I can doing what I do best, Analysis. I can analyze clues, behaviour of players and guide us in a winning direction.
As sheriff, I can jail 4 people in a game once per person, this allows me to save potential targets from mafia in a night, or jail the mafia lowering their KP.
As mayor I can guide us towards killing the right suspect, and with a day 1 auto lynch, kill the person who is the most fishy to the town, but in the end, that will come to a consensus among the town first.
Now for a plan. We all know the town works better when organized, as such, neither mayor nor sheriff can guide this town to victory without being under suspect (we always flip as mayor or sheriff regardless of any other role).
So heres the plan.
Medics protect veteran players early. When one of them takes a hit, the medic should roleclaim to that person AND that person should claim they took a hit. That person then gets checked. They get the medic checked as well. If BOTH check out, they both come out and serve as figureheads for the town. They coordinate blue abilities but keep information on to the town.
When the person is hit they speak up. The sheriff then locks him up, protecting him from night hits while a dt checks him out. Once verified we repeat process with med, and have two figureheads, as opposed to the regular one.
In the event the person who is hit doesnt speak up, the medic speaks up, we verify them first, then the one hit after.
This is our best chance at getting town leadership quickly. + Show Spoiler [Qatol's game 8 as Traitor] +On May 16 2009 15:14 BloodyC0bbler wrote: OK BOYO'S!
Ok guys, this game will be the hardest one potentially we have ever done, as such we need to get the mafia as soon as this game starts. I've shown a record of insane amount of clue analyzing from previous games, as such I believe I would make a good candidate for the town to keep alive. I however, would prefer to be pardoner, this allows me to help prevent potentially townbreaking lynches.
As mayor, I would analyze the clues (as this is my forte) and bring them to your attention and direct votes on the best possible suspects, thus bringing the town some central leadership to avoid chaos.
As pardoner, I would do generally the same idea, however, would use my ability to prevent lynches on cases where it appeared someone with no links was up for no reason.
Vote for order, vote for BloodyC0bbler
+ Show Spoiler [Plexa's game 12, Townie] +On July 03 2009 07:38 BloodyC0bbler wrote: OK first off
I AM RUNNING FOR OFFICE
I am already seeing idiocy of players that has led to many vets getting insanely discouraged with playing these games. I appreciate Plexa for trying to make this game interesting with the addition of different roles, tweaking how some work, and the addition of fog. Now lets outline why I should be in office.
Weather
I'm already seeing debate on weather, and You guys are saying opt for rain? We have two medics, each have an extra life, and they can protect people. Historically medics have sucked more than any other role in the game, IE don't depend on them early game, how hard is this to understand, MEDICS DO NOT WIN GAMES. This instantly gets rid of the damn rain option.
Next we have sunny which allows our assassins to attack. If you guys vote for this I will kill you. EVEN IF they hit a mafia, which we all jump and joy in, there is a chance they hit the godfather, and guess what, this means the godfather role gets given to another mafia and we have to find the damn guy again, way to much effort, so sunny isn't an option we want, also vigi roles aren't always reliable, lynches are where we have to win, so SUNNY is out.
Next we have snow, snow is useful for hey additional clues. Guess what, most of the top clue analyzers from all previous games aren't in this one, IE the amount of people benefiting from these clues is so damn small its not worth voting on, so we ignore snow.
This leaves fog, ie WE SPAM FOG. All greens should be voting fog every day to keep it going. It removes the pledges kp from the mafia. So if there would be at least 1 possibly as high as 3 or 4 pledges. This will reduce a KP from the mafia meaning 1-2 less people die at night. THAT IS A GUARENTEE. Medics are not guarenteed to protect so this is a safer bet. So we spam fog until the pledges are all dead, then move on to a different weather. Also note, with fog reducing the mafia KP, the suicide bomber will be less likely to use his ability as it removes even more kp from them.
Leadership In most games I have played, I have worked in some way in town circles working for the benefit of the town, many times leading to a win for the town. This gives me the experience to help lead the town and help keep it organized. The towns in the last few games have been reduced to very small voices screaming at a mass of chaos and leads to failure, it has to stop. I would make an excellent choice for the leadership purely based off my experience at keeping some form of order. Untop of that, for once I am one of a very few in terms of a specific skill. I, as ive said in other games, clue analyze. Out of the current player base of this game, Myself and Pyrr are most likely most known for spending time on clues (there may be one or two people from pyrr's game , but i didnt pay much attention to it). This means either him or myself should have the bg protection purely to keep us alive to use that skill. I will do my best to keep us alive.
Double Lynch I will make sure we get these used on top mafia targets, IE if we have two insanely guilty looking people, double lynch will be used. We wont have to worry about constantly voting for double lynch one day, then worrying mafia stop it. IT WILL GET USED and by god it will get by the town.
These are merely a few points, but seriously with the debate of what to vote on for weather, A strong player is needed as the emperor or we are all fucked.
Vote for me
but more importantly VOTE FOR FOG + Show Spoiler [This game] +On February 14 2010 07:52 BloodyC0bbler wrote: As the game as begun, it is time to get it started.
I, BloodyC0bbler, am running for the position of mayor.
I believe the town can easily win this if we work together, as a concise unit, and do so before the mafia can create their own plans. Action must happen now. My campaign is on a platform of strength. I believe I have the strength to help pull this town together. I can analyze clues, behaviour, and can help guide blues to where they should act. The more we work together, the less we have to lose. The first lynch at the moment, as there is nothing to really go on, I believe is moot unless someone gives themself away obviously. Therefore I would lynch the most inactive player, or in the case of someone giving themself away, that person. Any other choice should be pardon'd instantly.
Vote for unity, Vote for strength, Vote for bloodyc0bbler Notice the similarities between the two games he was innocent. He comes in with a plan, goes into detail, and gives genuine advice. In his game as a traitor, he offers nothing, says random gibberish, and is basically goofing off. He makes no serious attempt to do anything. Exactly like his campaign post this game. BC is a vet, and has played more games than almost anyone else (I think only Ace and maybe Caller leads him). He's also hosted a bunch of games as well (3). He knows what needs to be done. He knows what a mayor needs, he knows how to act as a townie; negligence is not an excuse. BC is acting very out of character and it's so blatant that it's obvious from just 1 post. Further Analysis: BC basically dodges the issue entirely, and frankly his response reeks of a calculated play to do the things that would make him look innocent to me. This is followed up with general uselessness while not remaining completely inactive, not an innocent BC trademark. Further slipups include telling me privately that the the two people who stand out the most are him and myself. He viewed me as being too helpful and thus suspicious, but that apparently did not stop him for voting for me despite the fact that I accused him?? He later retracted his vote for no stated reason, which makes it look more like a simple calculated reaction. He also says he has a rudimentary plan worked out, then never follows up on it in private or public. He also posts several times about how clue analysis is useless until day 3, but then acquiesces for no reason and does serious analysis in day 1. This would not be so much of a problem if it was not his only substantial contribution, but it certainly boggles the mind why someone would be so present, yet make his only real contribution on something he repeatedly said was useless. Meeple+ Show Spoiler [Initial Analysis] +On February 15 2010 09:13 Ver wrote:Ok, we need to get discussion going. I don't have much time now so I'm just going to make a quick writeup on another guilty person. FYI by accusing these people I'm not necessarily saying I would lynch them but they have been suspicious and need to account for their actions. But we need to put the pressure on people who have not been acting in the town's interests. Meeple Last game Meeple was a Townie. Here are some day 1 posts to get you familiar with him. + Show Spoiler +On January 20 2010 11:56 meeple wrote: Hmm... the biggest clue that stands out to me is the strange monkeyish reference.
I agree that highly caffeinated tea is out of place too... but it might be a stretch to think of Golden monkey black tea... unless we know that someone here is a huge fan of it. On January 20 2010 12:09 meeple wrote: It caught my eye too... but perhaps its not an apple... but something about an adams apple, since its in his throat. So perhaps something that's extra manly... or has an adams apple thats especially prominent. On January 20 2010 12:29 meeple wrote: Well... although cookie monster might have "barbaric" movements... I don't think they would draw the line between him and monkey. Although, if I were thinking from a game-making perspective... cookie monster and the cookie in The_Master's profile is too good to resist. On January 21 2010 00:25 meeple wrote:Show nested quote +On January 20 2010 23:12 citi.zen wrote:On January 20 2010 23:10 magicbullet wrote: "lifting his fists and taunting them with strange barbaric noises"
Definitely a clue in here, it does not go naturally with the rest of the sentence.
But how is these related to Hobbes or the Leviathan ? Look at Hobbes' picture - raised fists, could be interpreted as taunting + tiger could account for noises. If we're going with just imagery, we might as well consider keit and the Cookie Monster. Much more barbaric and it can be paired with shoving the apple down his throat, like Cookie monster does with cookies. Things to note: -Lots of clue analysis -Actively giving his opinion -Trying his best to contribute -Posting extremely frequently Now let's look at Meeple this game: + Show Spoiler +On February 14 2010 10:13 meeple wrote: Clues I think are important to the game and although especially in the early game they are very little help and can sometime steer us away from realizing and recognizing suspicious posting habits.. On that note, it is very important as we saw in the last game to try and keep impartial since the mafia will no doubt try to twist the clues to sway our decisions.
Just something to keep in mind...
On February 14 2010 10:22 meeple wrote: I agree fairly heavily with Ver's above post.. The more active posters, the less places the mafia have to hide.
Right now though, at least in my mind, the lynch target is a bit of a crapshoot. I'm naturally inclined to lean towards clues so Ace comes to mind as a target, but in reality picking an inactive might be just as likely to hit red. On February 14 2010 11:58 meeple wrote:Show nested quote +On February 14 2010 11:55 Abenson wrote:On February 14 2010 11:45 Ace wrote: Ok, the KingPin has arrived. Time to stop this nonsense and get this game started.
First of all, I'm going to be brutally honest here. Some of you playing are newbies. That isn't to say you're bad, but more so that you haven't had the experience of playing a true cut throat game of Mafia. The last 2 games were honestly so bland - aka too much talking about clues, that it wasn't really that much high level strategy going on.
Like Ver said, talking too much about clues early is USELESS. Don't try to convince anyone that someone is Mafia based on clues for the first few days. It's nice to mention it, but do not make it a central point of focus. MTF and Camlito are the best 2 clue analyzers along with Plexa that we ever had. That was in Mafia 2 and it took a ton of planning + input from various people to even come to some of those conclusions. Chances are you won't be able to do much with clues this game unless you've got some additional proof. What I mean by this is catch someone on behavior analysis + clues + shoddy voting or motives. Saying "this clue points to Ace" is just stupid.
Knowing this, I'm not surprised LL and Zato -1 are already accusing me. Look people, especially for you new players - I'm one of the biggest targets in any Mafia game. Every time. I'm super valuable. I catch people in lies all the time and I always save townies from the obvious bandwagon deaths. L and Zato may not have blatantly accused me but they just planted a seed of suspicion on me of all people, based on some wild clues. Be very wary of light weight accusations like this.
I'm running for Mayor of course. But in the event I don't win, my vote is possibly going to Ver. The only reason I might not vote for him is because he has elected to kill BC which is just as bad as L/Zato wanting me dead. Our most valuable players should be saved unless it's blatantly obvious they are Mafia. There are 3 teams this game, don't even bother trying to murder all of our good players so soon.
ALL HAIL ACE based on the past mafia games i've read he's usually right o.o I agree that he's on the right track, but try not to beleive so easily... he's a vet, which means he can play either role really well. I'm not pointing fingers, just saying that we need to keep our eyes open... On February 15 2010 03:32 meeple wrote:Show nested quote +On February 15 2010 03:26 DoctorHelvetica wrote: Bill Murrays defense hasn't impressed me one bit. I'm not 100% convinced he's mafia, but if he is not this is just terrible play.
Bill Murray, at the very least give reasons as to why you think those people are mafia. Why do you refuse to justify your statements? Do you actually think it's helpful to come in and say "OH BTW THESE DUDES ARE MAFIA AND L IS DA GODFATHER AND BC IS THE OTHER FAMILIES GODFATHER, L8R" Yeah, I would ask the same. I'm skeptical as to how you came to those conclusions... Things to note: -Meeple praises clue analysis, but DOES ALMOST NOTHING HIMSELF -Lots of talking to other players, but little real contributions -Plenty of useless posts, where he writes words but says nothing new in them -Less active overall What do you think of this Meeple? Further Analysis: Like BC Meeple, basically avoided the accusation and continued on his merry way, which he was given the luxury of thanks to mountains of spam covering up the accusation. As further followup was impossible he's not 100% guilty but it certainly doesn't look good. I want to take a closer look at him when I wake up. AceMy certainty with Ace is less than with the above two but Ace really has no business being protected anyway with his performance so far as regardless of role he is hurting the town. Ace has been a consistent presence in the thread throughout the game, yet despite this fact he has given almost no real contributions at all. He has instead defended himself, caused a lot of chaos, and...not really said much else besides judging others. This does fit with his the behavior of his previous mafia performances (see here and here ). In these games Ace sits back, passes judgment on the play of others, and offers nothing himself. The only saving grace of Ace is his accusation and 'trap' of DrH, which while good seemed to be nothing more than a temporary fad that he gave up on promoting (if I am wrong please correct me, I couldn't find it via searching). Mystlord: Mystlord is on here at the request of L (who also requested Bill Murray but I don't see any reason for him to be mafia at all). A quick glance at his posts reveals that he has posted a bit, but said virtually nothing in them. Lots of anger at other people for being useless, yet doesn't do anything himself. This is a common mafia trait and otherwise Mystlord has done little to convince us of his use to the town. A brief glance Medic List:Chezinu Ver Caller DT check list:Fishball Shikyo LucasWoJ Citizen Fulgrim Quickstriker Tree.Hugger MasterDana The DT list is rather long but there is a pretty big subset of players that we lack information on and these are some of the more glaring of those, plus we don't want DT checks overlapping.
I didn't avoid anything, I responded to it quickly after you posted. You only looked at the first day of the last game, where the level of activity was ridiculous. And I have a week of midterms coming up, so I simply don't have the same amount of time that I used to have.
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