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On February 15 2010 09:06 DoctorHelvetica wrote:Show nested quote +On February 15 2010 09:02 BloodyC0bbler wrote:On February 15 2010 08:53 DoctorHelvetica wrote:A VERY IMPORTANT POINT THAT HAS BEEN IGNORED or, why I now agree with L Initially I made the mistake of strategizing as I would in a game with 1 mafia family against 1 town and a relatively small number of mafia (say 8 or less) I agreed with Ver thinking "clue analysis will become stronger as clue profiles build on mafia." I know that in Incognitos last game, he used a set order of clues. The first day was myself and keit, then derfboy, phrujbaz, etc. etc. Eventually it repeated and went back to keit, this made the clues on him much stronger. By about the 3rd or 4th day, the town now had a much stronger clue profile on a single mafia and the town could have lynched him a bit more securely. In this game, there are 20 mafia. I assume kills will overlap (meaning Mafia and Yakuza both hit the same target) and medics will eventually do their thing, meaning we might not even get 6 clues a day. If there were exactly 6 kills a night, by the 4th day we would have a "clue profile" with multiple clue sets on a single mafia member. Either we ignore clues completely because of this, or we start analyzing them from Day 1 onward. Unless of course, Incognito decides not to go in a specific order, meaning that we might get multiple clues on a single mafia very early and much more often. But I think that is unlikely. It is an important point. However, as someone who likes clue analyzing. Let me give you an example of day 1 clues should be done. Discussed (yay) but don't actively lynch someone based off of it, its not reliable. You need time to build your profiles of people. Day 1 clues start the process of building mafia profiles. You can usually easy pin in family games, which family is responsible for which killings. You then label them mafia family A, and mafia family B. As clues are given, you put themes under each mafia heading. The more time that goes by, the more you have, the better your chances of linking to someone. Using day 1 clues, you have things that are red herrings, as well as some things that are clues. I enjoy seeing L looking at them, but he looks more like hes pushing to get ace lynched than actually look at the clues. The whole theme of horsemen (at the moment to me) is moot. Things like darkness, or moonlight/blinding, could indeed be clues. However, without more days worth of clues, its harder to know if it is or not. Its why Camlito and MTF post very little analysis until they have solid leads. Until then its wild speculation. Chances are that incog will just link more than 3 members of a family per night, or hell, we are getting 6 mafia per night in clues anyway, we could get really lucky on one of them later, or he could reuse one from day 1 in day 2, etc... Day 1 clues are deff important, but moreso down the line than now. My argument is that it will take so long to build clue profiles that it will become useless. Doing things like seperating killers into families is all well and good though.
I agree with the Doctor that it will take too long to do the same thing that we did last game... I think alot of our information will come from the cross-mafia hits... since each green/red hit will tell us alot about the remaining mafia and their alliances
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On February 15 2010 09:13 Ver wrote:Ok, we need to get discussion going. I don't have much time now so I'm just going to make a quick writeup on another guilty person. FYI by accusing these people I'm not necessarily saying I would lynch them but they have been suspicious and need to account for their actions. But we need to put the pressure on people who have not been acting in the town's interests. Meeple Last game Meeple was a Townie. Here are some day 1 posts to get you familiar with him. + Show Spoiler +On January 20 2010 11:56 meeple wrote: Hmm... the biggest clue that stands out to me is the strange monkeyish reference.
I agree that highly caffeinated tea is out of place too... but it might be a stretch to think of Golden monkey black tea... unless we know that someone here is a huge fan of it. On January 20 2010 12:09 meeple wrote: It caught my eye too... but perhaps its not an apple... but something about an adams apple, since its in his throat. So perhaps something that's extra manly... or has an adams apple thats especially prominent. On January 20 2010 12:29 meeple wrote: Well... although cookie monster might have "barbaric" movements... I don't think they would draw the line between him and monkey. Although, if I were thinking from a game-making perspective... cookie monster and the cookie in The_Master's profile is too good to resist. On January 21 2010 00:25 meeple wrote:Show nested quote +On January 20 2010 23:12 citi.zen wrote:On January 20 2010 23:10 magicbullet wrote: "lifting his fists and taunting them with strange barbaric noises"
Definitely a clue in here, it does not go naturally with the rest of the sentence.
But how is these related to Hobbes or the Leviathan ? Look at Hobbes' picture - raised fists, could be interpreted as taunting + tiger could account for noises. If we're going with just imagery, we might as well consider keit and the Cookie Monster. Much more barbaric and it can be paired with shoving the apple down his throat, like Cookie monster does with cookies. Things to note: -Lots of clue analysis -Actively giving his opinion -Trying his best to contribute -Posting extremely frequently Now let's look at Meeple this game: + Show Spoiler +On February 14 2010 10:13 meeple wrote: Clues I think are important to the game and although especially in the early game they are very little help and can sometime steer us away from realizing and recognizing suspicious posting habits.. On that note, it is very important as we saw in the last game to try and keep impartial since the mafia will no doubt try to twist the clues to sway our decisions.
Just something to keep in mind...
On February 14 2010 10:22 meeple wrote: I agree fairly heavily with Ver's above post.. The more active posters, the less places the mafia have to hide.
Right now though, at least in my mind, the lynch target is a bit of a crapshoot. I'm naturally inclined to lean towards clues so Ace comes to mind as a target, but in reality picking an inactive might be just as likely to hit red. On February 14 2010 11:58 meeple wrote:Show nested quote +On February 14 2010 11:55 Abenson wrote:On February 14 2010 11:45 Ace wrote: Ok, the KingPin has arrived. Time to stop this nonsense and get this game started.
First of all, I'm going to be brutally honest here. Some of you playing are newbies. That isn't to say you're bad, but more so that you haven't had the experience of playing a true cut throat game of Mafia. The last 2 games were honestly so bland - aka too much talking about clues, that it wasn't really that much high level strategy going on.
Like Ver said, talking too much about clues early is USELESS. Don't try to convince anyone that someone is Mafia based on clues for the first few days. It's nice to mention it, but do not make it a central point of focus. MTF and Camlito are the best 2 clue analyzers along with Plexa that we ever had. That was in Mafia 2 and it took a ton of planning + input from various people to even come to some of those conclusions. Chances are you won't be able to do much with clues this game unless you've got some additional proof. What I mean by this is catch someone on behavior analysis + clues + shoddy voting or motives. Saying "this clue points to Ace" is just stupid.
Knowing this, I'm not surprised LL and Zato -1 are already accusing me. Look people, especially for you new players - I'm one of the biggest targets in any Mafia game. Every time. I'm super valuable. I catch people in lies all the time and I always save townies from the obvious bandwagon deaths. L and Zato may not have blatantly accused me but they just planted a seed of suspicion on me of all people, based on some wild clues. Be very wary of light weight accusations like this.
I'm running for Mayor of course. But in the event I don't win, my vote is possibly going to Ver. The only reason I might not vote for him is because he has elected to kill BC which is just as bad as L/Zato wanting me dead. Our most valuable players should be saved unless it's blatantly obvious they are Mafia. There are 3 teams this game, don't even bother trying to murder all of our good players so soon.
ALL HAIL ACE based on the past mafia games i've read he's usually right o.o I agree that he's on the right track, but try not to beleive so easily... he's a vet, which means he can play either role really well. I'm not pointing fingers, just saying that we need to keep our eyes open... On February 15 2010 03:32 meeple wrote:Show nested quote +On February 15 2010 03:26 DoctorHelvetica wrote: Bill Murrays defense hasn't impressed me one bit. I'm not 100% convinced he's mafia, but if he is not this is just terrible play.
Bill Murray, at the very least give reasons as to why you think those people are mafia. Why do you refuse to justify your statements? Do you actually think it's helpful to come in and say "OH BTW THESE DUDES ARE MAFIA AND L IS DA GODFATHER AND BC IS THE OTHER FAMILIES GODFATHER, L8R" Yeah, I would ask the same. I'm skeptical as to how you came to those conclusions... Things to note: -Meeple praises clue analysis, but DOES ALMOST NOTHING HIMSELF -Lots of talking to other players, but little real contributions -Plenty of useless posts, where he writes words but says nothing new in them -Less active overall What do you think of this Meeple?
Midterm season... cuts down on the clue analysis/activity
Also, I don't praise clue analysis, since last game it turned out alot of it was wrong. I've said that it can be useful, but we should be wary about relying heavily on it.
Generating discussion is a contribution, I don't have time to do real clue analysis, and my character analysis is a working project. I'll post something that stands out if I see it.
I apologize for the useless posts, but sometimes I'm just throwing my support around and letting other people who aren't as strained for time hash out alot of things.
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Also I was ridiculously active on Day1 last game, since I had almost no schoolwork and really excited for my first game of Mafia. If you look to the end of the game you'll see that my posting frequency is similar to now.
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On February 15 2010 09:29 BloodyC0bbler wrote:Show nested quote +On February 15 2010 09:25 L wrote:On February 15 2010 09:09 BloodyC0bbler wrote:On February 15 2010 09:06 DoctorHelvetica wrote:On February 15 2010 09:02 BloodyC0bbler wrote:On February 15 2010 08:53 DoctorHelvetica wrote:A VERY IMPORTANT POINT THAT HAS BEEN IGNORED or, why I now agree with L Initially I made the mistake of strategizing as I would in a game with 1 mafia family against 1 town and a relatively small number of mafia (say 8 or less) I agreed with Ver thinking "clue analysis will become stronger as clue profiles build on mafia." I know that in Incognitos last game, he used a set order of clues. The first day was myself and keit, then derfboy, phrujbaz, etc. etc. Eventually it repeated and went back to keit, this made the clues on him much stronger. By about the 3rd or 4th day, the town now had a much stronger clue profile on a single mafia and the town could have lynched him a bit more securely. In this game, there are 20 mafia. I assume kills will overlap (meaning Mafia and Yakuza both hit the same target) and medics will eventually do their thing, meaning we might not even get 6 clues a day. If there were exactly 6 kills a night, by the 4th day we would have a "clue profile" with multiple clue sets on a single mafia member. Either we ignore clues completely because of this, or we start analyzing them from Day 1 onward. Unless of course, Incognito decides not to go in a specific order, meaning that we might get multiple clues on a single mafia very early and much more often. But I think that is unlikely. It is an important point. However, as someone who likes clue analyzing. Let me give you an example of day 1 clues should be done. Discussed (yay) but don't actively lynch someone based off of it, its not reliable. You need time to build your profiles of people. Day 1 clues start the process of building mafia profiles. You can usually easy pin in family games, which family is responsible for which killings. You then label them mafia family A, and mafia family B. As clues are given, you put themes under each mafia heading. The more time that goes by, the more you have, the better your chances of linking to someone. Using day 1 clues, you have things that are red herrings, as well as some things that are clues. I enjoy seeing L looking at them, but he looks more like hes pushing to get ace lynched than actually look at the clues. The whole theme of horsemen (at the moment to me) is moot. Things like darkness, or moonlight/blinding, could indeed be clues. However, without more days worth of clues, its harder to know if it is or not. Its why Camlito and MTF post very little analysis until they have solid leads. Until then its wild speculation. Chances are that incog will just link more than 3 members of a family per night, or hell, we are getting 6 mafia per night in clues anyway, we could get really lucky on one of them later, or he could reuse one from day 1 in day 2, etc... Day 1 clues are deff important, but moreso down the line than now. My argument is that it will take so long to build clue profiles that it will become useless. Doing things like seperating killers into families is all well and good though. Thing is, in a game with this many killers, for all we know, incog could be going 4-5 members a family in clue sets, or he could be doing one per kill, etc... As people die off you also get a good indicator of whos red so on and so forth. Its not a fast process in clues, it never is. Over analyzing things like L is, can pay off for sure, but it can also create bandwagons that off us faster. The greatest thing it has done so far this game is get alot of people talking, and which has given us alot of insight into peoples behaviour Explain how even super rudimentary linking is 'over' analyzing? Actually, explain what you mean by overanalyzing using specifics, because it seems like you're trying to discredit some of the only tangible work being done without actually dealing with any of the arguments. I discredit the fact that you have centered almost purely around ace? You spent time linking almost exclusively to him. You want him to be red, or just want him dead. However, instead had you spent time building themes for each killer then linked to multiple people based on that, its not as bad. I say this as, by pushing for one specific person on day 1 clues linking everything imaginable to them eventually you will get something that sticks. Do your connections make sense overall, Yes, could they all be red herrings however, Yes. I would rather instead see a list of people matching descriptions of each link and then off the most retarded or inactive of the bunch. You just seem to be pushing a vendetta overall however, it makes it harder to believe or follow.
I sorta agree... I got caught in this type of trap myself, where I so firmly beleived in tredmasta's guilt based on what I thought was a strong clue and it turned out he was a vigilante.
I see the clue connection, but I'm wary of the level of conviction you have in it.
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On February 15 2010 09:43 DoctorHelvetica wrote:Show nested quote +On February 15 2010 09:41 L wrote:On February 15 2010 09:34 [NyC]HoBbes wrote:On February 15 2010 09:29 BloodyC0bbler wrote:On February 15 2010 09:25 L wrote:On February 15 2010 09:09 BloodyC0bbler wrote:On February 15 2010 09:06 DoctorHelvetica wrote:On February 15 2010 09:02 BloodyC0bbler wrote:On February 15 2010 08:53 DoctorHelvetica wrote:A VERY IMPORTANT POINT THAT HAS BEEN IGNORED or, why I now agree with L Initially I made the mistake of strategizing as I would in a game with 1 mafia family against 1 town and a relatively small number of mafia (say 8 or less) I agreed with Ver thinking "clue analysis will become stronger as clue profiles build on mafia." I know that in Incognitos last game, he used a set order of clues. The first day was myself and keit, then derfboy, phrujbaz, etc. etc. Eventually it repeated and went back to keit, this made the clues on him much stronger. By about the 3rd or 4th day, the town now had a much stronger clue profile on a single mafia and the town could have lynched him a bit more securely. In this game, there are 20 mafia. I assume kills will overlap (meaning Mafia and Yakuza both hit the same target) and medics will eventually do their thing, meaning we might not even get 6 clues a day. If there were exactly 6 kills a night, by the 4th day we would have a "clue profile" with multiple clue sets on a single mafia member. Either we ignore clues completely because of this, or we start analyzing them from Day 1 onward. Unless of course, Incognito decides not to go in a specific order, meaning that we might get multiple clues on a single mafia very early and much more often. But I think that is unlikely. It is an important point. However, as someone who likes clue analyzing. Let me give you an example of day 1 clues should be done. Discussed (yay) but don't actively lynch someone based off of it, its not reliable. You need time to build your profiles of people. Day 1 clues start the process of building mafia profiles. You can usually easy pin in family games, which family is responsible for which killings. You then label them mafia family A, and mafia family B. As clues are given, you put themes under each mafia heading. The more time that goes by, the more you have, the better your chances of linking to someone. Using day 1 clues, you have things that are red herrings, as well as some things that are clues. I enjoy seeing L looking at them, but he looks more like hes pushing to get ace lynched than actually look at the clues. The whole theme of horsemen (at the moment to me) is moot. Things like darkness, or moonlight/blinding, could indeed be clues. However, without more days worth of clues, its harder to know if it is or not. Its why Camlito and MTF post very little analysis until they have solid leads. Until then its wild speculation. Chances are that incog will just link more than 3 members of a family per night, or hell, we are getting 6 mafia per night in clues anyway, we could get really lucky on one of them later, or he could reuse one from day 1 in day 2, etc... Day 1 clues are deff important, but moreso down the line than now. My argument is that it will take so long to build clue profiles that it will become useless. Doing things like seperating killers into families is all well and good though. Thing is, in a game with this many killers, for all we know, incog could be going 4-5 members a family in clue sets, or he could be doing one per kill, etc... As people die off you also get a good indicator of whos red so on and so forth. Its not a fast process in clues, it never is. Over analyzing things like L is, can pay off for sure, but it can also create bandwagons that off us faster. The greatest thing it has done so far this game is get alot of people talking, and which has given us alot of insight into peoples behaviour Explain how even super rudimentary linking is 'over' analyzing? Actually, explain what you mean by overanalyzing using specifics, because it seems like you're trying to discredit some of the only tangible work being done without actually dealing with any of the arguments. I discredit the fact that you have centered almost purely around ace? You spent time linking almost exclusively to him. You want him to be red, or just want him dead. However, instead had you spent time building themes for each killer then linked to multiple people based on that, its not as bad. I say this as, by pushing for one specific person on day 1 clues linking everything imaginable to them eventually you will get something that sticks. Do your connections make sense overall, Yes, could they all be red herrings however, Yes. I would rather instead see a list of people matching descriptions of each link and then off the most retarded or inactive of the bunch. You just seem to be pushing a vendetta overall however, it makes it harder to believe or follow. I think that while the connections could be red herrings, we should lynch whichever connection has generated the most discussion, not whichever connection links to the most irritating or inactive poster. What good does it serve us to lynch someone who is connected to the clues but hasn't created any controversy, or any meaningful argument? We don't gain any information about other players, because no other players have made arguments about them. Lynching an inactive who hasn't posted a defense, or who no one has posted in defense of, is akin to picking a lynch name out of a hat, regardless of which way it flips its not leading us anywhere. We shouldn't lynch the most talked about connection; we should lynch the most certain connection. These are two different things. I don't give a shit if someone doesn't reply if the weight of the evidence against them is overwhelming. The only thing your suggestion does is allow people the option of ignoring a topic instead of dealing with it, which is VERY, VERY bad. Do you feel the connection is stronger to Ace or Empyrean? I feel it's stronger to Empyrean because no one else could possibly fit the clue profile it seems. Multiple players could fit the killer you have said is Ace, even if they don't fit it as well.
While I think that Empyrean fits the clue profile fairly well, perhaps closer than Ace, Empyrean has rarely posted, and even if he is red it doesn't give us too much to go on. But if Ace is red, we get quite a bit more information since he was alot more active here.
Regardless, If I had to choose who I'm more sure is red, it'd probably be Empyrean.
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On February 15 2010 09:51 789 wrote: Did Empyrean have a profile before? It is pretty much blank right now...
He posted a while back saying he doesn't have a password to change his profile. The connection to clues was based on his name http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Empyrean
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On February 15 2010 10:00 L wrote: Oh foolishness, you posted on day 1 in a rather inflammatory tone instead of lurking until day 3 in an attempt to keep yourself alive.
I was going to call you out after scamp, but way to show initiative.
Also: 789, that's not a link to the arson killing you stupid twat. Its a link to the Angel's radiant flame killing.
Wtf... He's the one who posted in an inflammatory tone?
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On February 15 2010 10:01 L wrote: In retrospect, that reply to 789 was rather mean. Despite hating to put 'fluff' posts up, I feel the need to keep decorum seeing as someone has been warned before and apologize for the tone.
But still, try to keep up with what's being said for crying out loud.
Erp... sorry skipped past this
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On February 15 2010 10:07 DoctorHelvetica wrote: if u dont listen to kpop while playing mafia
then ur not playin 4 real
I listen to Tom Waits... if that dude doesn't put you in a sombre mood that's good for thinking, then nothing will.
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On February 15 2010 10:14 DoctorHelvetica wrote:Show nested quote +On February 15 2010 10:11 meeple wrote:On February 15 2010 10:07 DoctorHelvetica wrote: if u dont listen to kpop while playing mafia
then ur not playin 4 real I listen to Tom Waits... if that dude doesn't put you in a sombre mood that's good for thinking, then nothing will. was just listening to this lol + Show Spoiler +
Ahah.. nice This one is by far my favorite:
+ Show Spoiler +
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On February 15 2010 10:17 DoctorHelvetica wrote: ridiculous
Just to be clear, what does this refer to?
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On February 15 2010 10:55 BloodyC0bbler wrote: I also advise everyone to look at the people voting for citi.zen closely. He has not been that active, and posted very little on reason on why he should be in office, and he is easily winning position for mayor at the moment. This is insanely suspect behaviour on the voters. Much like the blind support I10f got last night, this blind support is similarly interesting.
I could understand that he would get support from his analysis in Incog's last name, but 3 of those people:
Fishball MasterDana dozko
Weren't in that game, so in the very least, these people probably shouldn't blindly trust them.
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On February 15 2010 11:32 dozko wrote:Show nested quote +On February 15 2010 10:58 meeple wrote: I could understand that he would get support from his analysis in Incog's last name, but 3 of those people:
Fishball MasterDana dozko
Weren't in that game, so in the very least, these people probably shouldn't blindly trust them. I can actually understand why people miss out some posts due to the supernova that has become this thread, but I dont think its a very good excuse. To others who have missed the argumentation of my vote its on page 29 towards the bottom.
Ah sry I did miss that...
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On February 15 2010 11:33 Ace wrote: No Dr.H made a few very critical mistakes. In fact the first one was even thinking that me posting aggressively implies that I'm suspect. That's just wrong on so many levels because I tend to play aggressive majority of the time regardless of my role.
Then he tried to link myself and redtooth. In fact he's done this several times in an effort to say my death will imply information about him when we haven't even done anything that shows we are on the same side.
The most telling example I have is the trap I set. See I knew that regardless of what role L has, he'd attack me. In fact it's amusing that he does this all the time then people that complain about us arguing. Those people are actually my PRIME SUSPECTS because every time L and I argue a shitload of information seeps out. I'm sure L already has a list of these soon to be dead people lined up though.
The main part of my trap was seeing if anyone was going to shadow L. You know, loosely agree with some of his posts no matter how wrong they are and then try and implicate me. The mere fact that you propose lynching me on Day 1 based on CLUES is a telling point that you want to off me so bad. Even L stepped back for a second to re-asses but you kept on with the accusation.
However there was one other thing that tipped me over the edge. How is it possible that you are currently reading the thread, I'm not even posting and you want to lynch me and you skip Caller's post? That was probably the biggest piece of positive information in the last ~10 hours and you chose to ignore it.
You are definitely not pro-town. You're Mafia.
You don't think some greens can fall into that trap too? I mean certainly some people like to follow clues regardless, and alot of the people here haven't played with you before and don't know if you usually play aggressively or not...
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On February 15 2010 11:46 Bill Murray wrote:Show nested quote +On February 15 2010 11:43 meeple wrote:
You don't think some greens can fall into that trap too? .. how do you KNOW he's green? seems mafia to me. you have information you care to share?
I said some greens... I was actually talking about me. Since I suspected Ace in the beginning too... and I don't think I was alone in that.
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On February 15 2010 11:49 DoctorHelvetica wrote:Show nested quote +On February 15 2010 11:48 Bill Murray wrote: i'm going to expand a bit on my last post. i said he's PROBABLY blue or green because being a town aligned player i have no clue as to whether or not i'm actually right. what you said implied that you already know he's green or green aligned, which means you know about who some red are already. i suppose in a scenario like this my argument is a bit less relevant as you actually wouldn't know who 10 mafia were. meeple didn't imply that in the slightest he's just saying the trap sucks because greens could fall into it easily and he's right
Whoa I didn't say that either... damn people twisting my words.
I said that greens could fall into that trap, so that its not definitive
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On February 15 2010 12:36 Iaaan wrote:My posts have been a bit lacking of content so far, I'll try to be a bit more insightful. For the town to win, we do not need to kill mafia; the Mafia‘s own KP will be the greatest weapon against the Mafia. What we, the town, needs to do is prepare for the later parts of the game, when our influence on the game really matters. In order to get ready for when our own KP matters, we need information. People have talked about putting together information, by profiling the clues, making circles of people who are connected to each other, and just watching what people post. The other way I can think of getting information is through lynches; if one person being red incriminates another person, it is more useful for the town to lynch them, again with the idea of controlling the balance between the mafia families in the later game. Other than having information, how can we increase our chance of winning? By killing the experienced Mafia. It makes sense to me that the veteran players are taking charge of their Mafia families. Therefore, while killing random Mafia members at this point may not ultimately benefit the town (you may disagree, but it would really just give an early advantage to one of the Mafia families), killing their leader will help the town. So who, with what I’ve said so far, who is the best person to lynch? Ace. Ace. is organizing one of the Mafia families, and Redtooth is his accomplice. The way I have linked them is through Redtooths post for candidacy. + Show Spoiler +On February 15 2010 06:53 redtooth wrote:enough of this. time to get the ball rolling. please prepare for content because... I AM ANNOUNCING MY CANDIDACY FOR MAYOR PLATFORMI am running for mayor. Some of you may know that I never run for any position regardless of my role, the reasons being similar to the ones Ver listed. However, I am willing to invest enough energy and effort to lead the town to victory. I have participated in enough mafia games and have developed an adequate understanding of the game. My play so far has demonstrated that I am capable of the high level thinking required for mayor of the town. Also, I am a Decision Science major at Carnegie Mellon. I play mafia for a living. THE OTHER CANDIDATESAll of the other veterans running thus far (Ace, BC, L) have too much suspicion surrounding them to be good mayor candidates. Some of the other candidates are either jokes (Chezinu, MasterDana, l10f), or unproven so far in the game (meeple, DrH, citizen). Electing Ver after how the early portion of the elections played out earlier is very very dangerous. I stated earlier that we should not vote for Ver but refrained from explicitly laying out the reasons why. Now that he has outright declared his candidacy, I guess it's time to share my thought process. Quoting an earlier PM I sent to someone: Show nested quote +2/14 16:21
logically it would make sense not to give Ver the "option" to step in and win the election. each mafia family will likely send out one mayor candidate and that makes elections hard enough. that's why we scrutinize the list of mayor candidates so thoroughly. if we give Ver the "option" of becoming mayor, he isn't scrutinized as much and when pressed on the idea that mafia families would push a member to candidacy he could say that he was "forced" into the position. or if a member of the same mafia family would be runner up in the votes then he could just step aside and use that fact later as defence.
now were he to have outright declared candidacy in the first place i wouldn't have minded voting for him. actually i probably would have voted for him. but that thought process would have been much different. he seems like such an attractive candidate now because he's smart and wasn't involved in any of the mess. Ver has, knowingly or unknowingly, taken advantage of the opportunity and halfheartedly declared his candidacy. This is the exact position we wanted to avoid. Before I was planning on running for Mayor, I requested that he withdraw his candidacy but I think just explaining the reasons in public should be enough to show that electing him as mayor is unwise. PRE-EMPTIVE DEFENSESome may be suspicious of me due to my somewhat passionate defense of Ace. As stated before, I have a high degree of respect for Ace and did not want to kill him off due to what I perceived as clue analysis on red herrings. I also don't believe any of the veterans should be killed to "gain interesting insight into how Incognito's clues are going to work" (quoted from [NyC]HoBbes). My late entry into mayoral race shouldn't be regarded with too much suspicion either. Nobody expected the mayor candidates to be caught up in so much shit. I wasn't voted for prior to my announcement so my argument against Ver's candidacy doesn't apply to me. LYNCH CANDIDATEIf elected mayor, I plan on lynching Bill Murray. There are obvious reasons (noted by Chezinu in a previous post) why we should be suspicious of him but there is much more to gain from lynching BM. So far he has presented himself as either a bad mafia or an idiot townie. Of course there is a chance that he flips green when mayor lynched and we waste a lynch but we get rid of a player that has a history of being detrimental to the town and isn't too valuable an asset to the town if he is indeed green. However, in the case that he flips red, we are provided with a wealth of information via the list that he posted. So far Bill has yet to post a legitimate defense, choosing instead to make a string of five or so posts that amounts to a desperate strike back at those that accused him. This makes him highly suspicious in my book. I am planning on checking over his behavior in the last game he played but FUTURE PLANSTo kill the mafia of course. We have to use our lynches to maximum efficiency and somehow get the DTs to broadcast their information without revealing their identity. Later on in the game, clue analysis should be more abundant than ever before because all players (mafia and town-aligned) benefit from the analysis. If Bill Murray flips red then the focus should immediately shift to the list he posted. The most notable oddity in the list was the absence of Ace despite the mountain of suspicion surrounding him. Please also remember that I was on the list. If anything, it would make sense that either both of us are on the list (a mafia defending a fellow mafia), neither of us are on the list (a townie defending a fellow townie), or Ace is on but I'm not (a mistaken townie risking his neck to defend a mafia). It doesn't make sense that I am on the list but Ace is not (a mafia defending a random townie). Please note that my attempt to lynch Bill Murray isn't out of anger towards him due to my name being on the list. So as of now I would place Ace in the same 'group' as Bill Murray. Though I fought hard to defend Ace thus far, he is far from exonerated and L's clue analysis is as solid as you can possibly get with only Day 1 clues. That means, depending on what color Bill flips, Ace becomes highly suspicious once more. Having said all that I feel that we should keep all the veterans alive as long as possible. They are capable of identifying mafia and (whether its through clue analysis or behavior analysis) call out individuals to lynch. Why is this beneficial for the town? Well as I stated earlier, town can't win if mafia takes out town first but at the same time a mafia family can't win unless they kill off the other mafia family. To identify and call out a mafia member in public would mean either the town or the opposing mafia family can kill that person off. Also, anyone who's been mafia before would know that killing off a veteran mafia member doesn't really get rid of their influence (due to reasons I don't want to state publicly). tl;drYou shouldn't vote for other mayor candidates due to various reasons. Vote for me. I am reasonable, logical, and have basic plans with more in the making. Most importantly, I am innocent. Thank you for your time. The things that make me consider him Mafia are his pre emptive defence, lynch candidate, and his future plans. First off, the preemtive defence. Quite simply, this is him justifying his support for Ace. First Redtooth supports Ace, claiming that the Day 1 clues are always useless. Later he wavers slightly in his support, contradicting himself and admitting that the clues may be useful, but now it looks like he has gone back to supporting Ace. This could be a little ambiguous, but I think that complete/blind trust is suspicious, and maybe Redtooth thinks that aswell. This is also significant, because Redtooths main defence against accusations against him, and people linking him to Ace is that Redtooth claims to mistrust Ace, while refusing to provide a reason. As for lynching Bill Murray in order to determine Ace’s roll, this is just silly. I think most of us can see that Bill Murray was being dumb, but not mafia. By saying that Ace is red if BM is red, when BM is obviously green, Redtooth is creating an arbitrary defence for Ace, as well as wasting a lynch on killing a townie that will not give us any useful information. Redtooth also states that we should keep veterans alive; I can’t say this makes him mafia, it sounds reasonable, but I’ve stated my reasons already why keeping veterans alive is not a good strategy. As for other supporting facts, Ace’s posts arguing with L have not actually refuted any of his points, only deflected them by agreeing with Redtooth that Day 1 clues are useless, when I think it is pretty clear that the clues COULD point to Ace. Other people supporting Ace include Decafchicken, who hasn’t said anything, but just voted for Ace (assuming one of the Mafia families candidates are Redtooth and Ace, Ace is the one with more votes, thus the logical one to vote for), and Abenson hasn’t really added anything, only supported Ace IIRC. These peoples connections aren’t solid, and I’m sure there are other people with similar connections, but I haven’t bothered to find them yet. I haven’t covered anything, but many things have already said if you have read through the thread, but I do want to quote this one post: Show nested quote +On February 15 2010 12:03 L wrote: Ace and I, while often opponents, do not typically argue about this we consider irrelevant. If Ace says he thinks clues are worthless, he actually thinks clues are worthless. Many of our arguments come up after the game ends again because neither of us are convinced that our opposite made a good case.
In the current instance, I don't see what Ace's argument is other than "I SET A TRAP BECAUSE EVERYONE WHO AGREES WITH L MUST BE MAFIA". Seems pretty dumb; if you actually set that trap, you'd be going balls deep trying to kill Iaaan. I agree with many things L has said, the most relevant one being that Ace’s arguments/”trap” are bad, and I support him for saying he may lynch Ace if elected. I was considering voting for citizen, but L is more active, and again I agree with a lot of what he has to say. I can think of a few more reasons that L is the best candidate, but this post is getting pretty long, and my focus is on Ace If anything is unclear/missing, I am happy to talk about that in a later post; I know I haven’t included everything. My last thought, following the theme of getting information for later in the game from out lynch, if Ace is red, it could rule out the other people being accused for the blinding/brightness clues if he flips green, and if he flips red, it gives us a circle of potential Mafia. We win either way. I await your counter arguments; I hope you consider this accusation worthy of a response.
I enjoy that you revisited this, and please correct me but what is new about this argument for Ace? We've already discussed that: 1) Clues may point to him 2) He had a vigorous defense that may be suspicious to some
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On February 15 2010 13:07 Fulgrim wrote:Show nested quote +On February 15 2010 12:29 Ace wrote: ok cool, no problem. Just make sure that in the event of my death you offer yourself up for lynching when I flip green ok? People need to get one idea into their heads: this is not like any of the other mafia games. When someone is lynched, its going to be alot harder to analyze the voters, and the people who pushed for their death. If a player flips red, that could mean that the voters are: a) town, and their suspicions were right or b) mafia trying to kill off the other family if the player flips green or blue, in all the other games, we could assume that there are pretty good chances that the players who voted to lynch them were mafia. HOWEVER in this game, the mafia don't all know each other, coupled with the fact the mafia are trying to hit red just as hard as the town, I think this would make the accusers have equal chance of being red or green.
Actually thats a great point... the mafia are going to try and manipulate our lynch vote so that it effectively increases their KP
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On February 15 2010 13:17 SugiuraMidori wrote:Show nested quote +On February 15 2010 13:08 Chezinu wrote:On February 15 2010 13:05 Ace wrote: I don't think any one is taking this personal. This game has been extremely normal. Father, it has not been normal... I've been without you this whole game... Everyone's post counts up to and including this quoted post. Sadly also includes pre-day start.. short of manually editing the source file.. I can't take it out. amber[light]= 2 ohn= 1 madnessman= 6 tredmasta= 1 empyrean= 2 [nyc]hobbes= 17 redtooth= 50 masterdana= 3 shockeyy= 4 faronel= 5 sugiuramidori= 6 quickstriker= 2 tree.hugger= 3 lucaswoj= 1 nemy= 3 zona= 5 ver= 10 fulgrim= 18 mystlord= 11 fishball= 5 qatol= 10 johnnyspazz= 5 malongo= 6 best[alive]= 3 doctorhelvetica= 92 d3_crescentia= 23 scamp= 5 sidesprang= 11 chezinu= 70 shikyo= 2 stimilant= 1 vivi57= 2 bloodyc0bbler= 36 phrujbaz= 6 l10f = 6 l= 42 ace= 39 abenson= 32 citi.zen= 19 caller= 5 flamewheel91= 12 789= 23 foolishness= 3 iaaan= 40 bill murray= 57 xelin= 5 zato-1= 17 cynanmachae= 4 meeple= 57 dozko= 5 nikoner= 4 infundibulum= 7 ~opz~= 5 incognito= 19 Anyone not on the list has 0 posts!! And yes, I can run the script as much as y'all desire.
Thanks for this:
There are a bunch of fairly inactive people, but right now the only one that stands out is Zona. He was active last game and he's got almost 500 posts this week, but only 5 on here?
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I'm curious as to why so many people are abstaining... is it just because you can't decide?
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