TL Mafia XVIII - Page 2
Forum Index > TL Mafia |
Iaaan
Canada578 Posts
| ||
Iaaan
Canada578 Posts
Or should I just be ignoring him? xd | ||
Iaaan
Canada578 Posts
| ||
Iaaan
Canada578 Posts
| ||
Iaaan
Canada578 Posts
I agree with Cresentia tho, if a Mafia member is elected, it becomes the other families priority to kill them. If they are a townie, great, the mafia doesn't care so much about them. Win Win for the town (: | ||
Iaaan
Canada578 Posts
| ||
Iaaan
Canada578 Posts
| ||
Iaaan
Canada578 Posts
On February 14 2010 13:46 L wrote: Which brings me to another point; With 20 mafia, how often do you think we'll be revisiting the same characters? Interesting point; clues may not overlap on one Mafia until much later. On February 14 2010 13:42 redtooth wrote: oh and i totally forgot to mention that the reason i want mayor to lynch a losing vet mayor candidate is because mafia wants to get a person into mayor position. they won't send a random member because that person won't have any chance of winning and BC has a legit chance of winning mayor/pardoner. we've done this before (lynching a losing vet mayor) but i think it has double effectiveness because we should have 2 (DOUBLE!) mafia families submitting members for mayor candidacy. I agree with this, but what do the people running think? | ||
Iaaan
Canada578 Posts
| ||
Iaaan
Canada578 Posts
| ||
Iaaan
Canada578 Posts
We haven't talked about the blue roles much. Bill Murray seems just dumb to me, mafia or not. Without talking about clues, I'm sure there would be significantly less talk. So accurate or not, still helpful. and arg TSL delays ): | ||
Iaaan
Canada578 Posts
| ||
Iaaan
Canada578 Posts
| ||
Iaaan
Canada578 Posts
But that said, I'm not sure who would be a better person to lynch. And I like your post, but do you have a longer term plan? How do you want to use the Blue roles? | ||
Iaaan
Canada578 Posts
| ||
Iaaan
Canada578 Posts
| ||
Iaaan
Canada578 Posts
On February 15 2010 12:20 Ace wrote: Of course you can't see it, cuz you're not me ^_^ Don't worry about Iaaan. Dr.H comes off way more suspicious for the mere fact he's equating my behavior as Mafia-ish. Really do we have to go through this every game where someone keeps trying to get a bandwagon against me? Either way like I said if you're going to try and use clues as the motivating factor for lynches this game then the town has to agree to hold anyone responsible for mistakes. If you start a bandwagon, or are a main contributor in the lynching of a townie you deserve to be lynched off the bat. No exceptions. In the event I die, when I flip green I really don't want anyone to say "well it was a mistaken clue interpretation". I'm happy your not worrying about me, but I have a posting coming up on why you are mafia. You'll be happy that its not based off clues. | ||
Iaaan
Canada578 Posts
For the town to win, we do not need to kill mafia; the Mafia‘s own KP will be the greatest weapon against the Mafia. What we, the town, needs to do is prepare for the later parts of the game, when our influence on the game really matters. In order to get ready for when our own KP matters, we need information. People have talked about putting together information, by profiling the clues, making circles of people who are connected to each other, and just watching what people post. The other way I can think of getting information is through lynches; if one person being red incriminates another person, it is more useful for the town to lynch them, again with the idea of controlling the balance between the mafia families in the later game. Other than having information, how can we increase our chance of winning? By killing the experienced Mafia. It makes sense to me that the veteran players are taking charge of their Mafia families. Therefore, while killing random Mafia members at this point may not ultimately benefit the town (you may disagree, but it would really just give an early advantage to one of the Mafia families), killing their leader will help the town. So who, with what I’ve said so far, who is the best person to lynch? Ace. Ace. is organizing one of the Mafia families, and Redtooth is his accomplice. The way I have linked them is through Redtooths post for candidacy. + Show Spoiler + On February 15 2010 06:53 redtooth wrote: enough of this. time to get the ball rolling. please prepare for content because... I AM ANNOUNCING MY CANDIDACY FOR MAYOR PLATFORM I am running for mayor. Some of you may know that I never run for any position regardless of my role, the reasons being similar to the ones Ver listed. However, I am willing to invest enough energy and effort to lead the town to victory. I have participated in enough mafia games and have developed an adequate understanding of the game. My play so far has demonstrated that I am capable of the high level thinking required for mayor of the town. Also, I am a Decision Science major at Carnegie Mellon. I play mafia for a living. THE OTHER CANDIDATES All of the other veterans running thus far (Ace, BC, L) have too much suspicion surrounding them to be good mayor candidates. Some of the other candidates are either jokes (Chezinu, MasterDana, l10f), or unproven so far in the game (meeple, DrH, citizen). Electing Ver after how the early portion of the elections played out earlier is very very dangerous. I stated earlier that we should not vote for Ver but refrained from explicitly laying out the reasons why. Now that he has outright declared his candidacy, I guess it's time to share my thought process. Quoting an earlier PM I sent to someone: Ver has, knowingly or unknowingly, taken advantage of the opportunity and halfheartedly declared his candidacy. This is the exact position we wanted to avoid. Before I was planning on running for Mayor, I requested that he withdraw his candidacy but I think just explaining the reasons in public should be enough to show that electing him as mayor is unwise. PRE-EMPTIVE DEFENSE Some may be suspicious of me due to my somewhat passionate defense of Ace. As stated before, I have a high degree of respect for Ace and did not want to kill him off due to what I perceived as clue analysis on red herrings. I also don't believe any of the veterans should be killed to "gain interesting insight into how Incognito's clues are going to work" (quoted from [NyC]HoBbes). My late entry into mayoral race shouldn't be regarded with too much suspicion either. Nobody expected the mayor candidates to be caught up in so much shit. I wasn't voted for prior to my announcement so my argument against Ver's candidacy doesn't apply to me. LYNCH CANDIDATE If elected mayor, I plan on lynching Bill Murray. There are obvious reasons (noted by Chezinu in a previous post) why we should be suspicious of him but there is much more to gain from lynching BM. So far he has presented himself as either a bad mafia or an idiot townie. Of course there is a chance that he flips green when mayor lynched and we waste a lynch but we get rid of a player that has a history of being detrimental to the town and isn't too valuable an asset to the town if he is indeed green. However, in the case that he flips red, we are provided with a wealth of information via the list that he posted. So far Bill has yet to post a legitimate defense, choosing instead to make a string of five or so posts that amounts to a desperate strike back at those that accused him. This makes him highly suspicious in my book. I am planning on checking over his behavior in the last game he played but FUTURE PLANS To kill the mafia of course. We have to use our lynches to maximum efficiency and somehow get the DTs to broadcast their information without revealing their identity. Later on in the game, clue analysis should be more abundant than ever before because all players (mafia and town-aligned) benefit from the analysis. If Bill Murray flips red then the focus should immediately shift to the list he posted. The most notable oddity in the list was the absence of Ace despite the mountain of suspicion surrounding him. Please also remember that I was on the list. If anything, it would make sense that either both of us are on the list (a mafia defending a fellow mafia), neither of us are on the list (a townie defending a fellow townie), or Ace is on but I'm not (a mistaken townie risking his neck to defend a mafia). It doesn't make sense that I am on the list but Ace is not (a mafia defending a random townie). Please note that my attempt to lynch Bill Murray isn't out of anger towards him due to my name being on the list. So as of now I would place Ace in the same 'group' as Bill Murray. Though I fought hard to defend Ace thus far, he is far from exonerated and L's clue analysis is as solid as you can possibly get with only Day 1 clues. That means, depending on what color Bill flips, Ace becomes highly suspicious once more. Having said all that I feel that we should keep all the veterans alive as long as possible. They are capable of identifying mafia and (whether its through clue analysis or behavior analysis) call out individuals to lynch. Why is this beneficial for the town? Well as I stated earlier, town can't win if mafia takes out town first but at the same time a mafia family can't win unless they kill off the other mafia family. To identify and call out a mafia member in public would mean either the town or the opposing mafia family can kill that person off. Also, anyone who's been mafia before would know that killing off a veteran mafia member doesn't really get rid of their influence (due to reasons I don't want to state publicly). tl;dr You shouldn't vote for other mayor candidates due to various reasons. Vote for me. I am reasonable, logical, and have basic plans with more in the making. Most importantly, I am innocent. Thank you for your time. The things that make me consider him Mafia are his pre emptive defence, lynch candidate, and his future plans. First off, the preemtive defence. Quite simply, this is him justifying his support for Ace. First Redtooth supports Ace, claiming that the Day 1 clues are always useless. Later he wavers slightly in his support, contradicting himself and admitting that the clues may be useful, but now it looks like he has gone back to supporting Ace. This could be a little ambiguous, but I think that complete/blind trust is suspicious, and maybe Redtooth thinks that aswell. This is also significant, because Redtooths main defence against accusations against him, and people linking him to Ace is that Redtooth claims to mistrust Ace, while refusing to provide a reason. As for lynching Bill Murray in order to determine Ace’s roll, this is just silly. I think most of us can see that Bill Murray was being dumb, but not mafia. By saying that Ace is red if BM is red, when BM is obviously green, Redtooth is creating an arbitrary defence for Ace, as well as wasting a lynch on killing a townie that will not give us any useful information. Redtooth also states that we should keep veterans alive; I can’t say this makes him mafia, it sounds reasonable, but I’ve stated my reasons already why keeping veterans alive is not a good strategy. As for other supporting facts, Ace’s posts arguing with L have not actually refuted any of his points, only deflected them by agreeing with Redtooth that Day 1 clues are useless, when I think it is pretty clear that the clues COULD point to Ace. Other people supporting Ace include Decafchicken, who hasn’t said anything, but just voted for Ace (assuming one of the Mafia families candidates are Redtooth and Ace, Ace is the one with more votes, thus the logical one to vote for), and Abenson hasn’t really added anything, only supported Ace IIRC. These peoples connections aren’t solid, and I’m sure there are other people with similar connections, but I haven’t bothered to find them yet. I haven’t covered anything, but many things have already said if you have read through the thread, but I do want to quote this one post: On February 15 2010 12:03 L wrote: Ace and I, while often opponents, do not typically argue about this we consider irrelevant. If Ace says he thinks clues are worthless, he actually thinks clues are worthless. Many of our arguments come up after the game ends again because neither of us are convinced that our opposite made a good case. In the current instance, I don't see what Ace's argument is other than "I SET A TRAP BECAUSE EVERYONE WHO AGREES WITH L MUST BE MAFIA". Seems pretty dumb; if you actually set that trap, you'd be going balls deep trying to kill Iaaan. I agree with many things L has said, the most relevant one being that Ace’s arguments/”trap” are bad, and I support him for saying he may lynch Ace if elected. I was considering voting for citizen, but L is more active, and again I agree with a lot of what he has to say. I can think of a few more reasons that L is the best candidate, but this post is getting pretty long, and my focus is on Ace If anything is unclear/missing, I am happy to talk about that in a later post; I know I haven’t included everything. My last thought, following the theme of getting information for later in the game from out lynch, if Ace is red, it could rule out the other people being accused for the blinding/brightness clues if he flips green, and if he flips red, it gives us a circle of potential Mafia. We win either way. I await your counter arguments; I hope you consider this accusation worthy of a response. | ||
Iaaan
Canada578 Posts
| ||
Iaaan
Canada578 Posts
On February 15 2010 12:48 Bill Murray wrote: - i agree with using a fact and lying to make the lie more believable, but how did you come to the conclusion that i was green? - why? he is behaving completely differently this game compared with the last game... he is scheming and lurking in the shadows. your posts were just incriminating/dumb for a little bit, but your actions after that I think make it pretty obvious that your green. I was considering citizen for the first few hours because of his play the previous game, but last game isn't this game and it doesn't seem like citizen has contributed as much. On February 15 2010 12:42 Ace wrote: oh dear /facepalm That's all? On February 15 2010 12:48 redtooth wrote: . laaan i was even looking forward to your post. how does everybody see that ace and i can't both be mafia? again, that's all? On February 15 2010 12:47 meeple wrote: I enjoy that you revisited this, and please correct me but what is new about this argument for Ace? We've already discussed that: 1) Clues may point to him 2) He had a vigorous defense that may be suspicious to some Granted alot of the arguments are repeated, I think the main things I had to add are how I think the the town should play to win, and why Ace is a better person to have lynched then anyone else. I also think that I added some things connecting Redtooth and Ace; it seemed like most people hadn't considered Redtooths candidacy post. And i haven't seen Ace address most of the arguments against him still. | ||
| ||