Australian Politics Thread - Page 52
Forum Index > General Forum |
DropBear
Australia4191 Posts
| ||
TDonkfarts
18 Posts
On May 22 2022 11:06 iPlaY.NettleS wrote: The headlines are saying Labor won but it really wasn’t a great night for them.Their primary vote currently (66% counted) actually dropped from their 2019 defeat.The big winners were the greens and the independents.Minor party primary vote is now over 30%, last election it was around 25%. The way things are going it’s hard to see majority governments being formed much longer by the two major parties.A good thing if you ask me. Actually Labor’s primary vote increased if you ignore Teal wins - which clearly had a lot of Labor and Green voters doing strategic voting - and Fowler - which Keneally can eat shit for trying to parachute into a safe Labor seat. | ||
iPlaY.NettleS
Australia4253 Posts
On May 24 2022 11:26 TDonkfarts wrote: Actually Labor’s primary vote increased if you ignore Teal wins Wow, that’s some gymnastics. Did you make an account here just to post that? How that debunks my argument that people are switching from the major parties to the smaller parties I am not sure. | ||
TDonkfarts
18 Posts
On May 24 2022 11:41 iPlaY.NettleS wrote: Wow, that’s some gymnastics. Did you make an account here just to post that? How that debunks my argument that people are switching from the major parties to the smaller parties I am not sure. It doesn’t but it’s not a problem for Labor, like you are suggesting, since the Teals campaigned on mostly a moderate platform in historically safe Liberal seats. A Labor or Greens candidate would have little chance in a seat like Kooyong, which has some of the bluest blood Victorians in the state. Only an independent running on independence would unseat the Deputy Prime Minister of Australia - Monique Ryan didn’t even put out a number preference in her HTV form. This isn’t so much Independents going wild, Teals only really ran in seats where Labor would have a hard time shifting generational LNP seats. Even if there are a lot of independent ministers, Labor can still form government fairly easily. That is what ultimately matters. Context matters when looking at these matters. Besides, this isn’t a FPTP voting system. There isn’t the historical problem of the left vote splitting here. If you voted for Labor in Kooyong, it would still in some degree benefit Monique Ryan since the Labor candidate there presumably placed her 2nd or 3rd. The end result is that Frydenberg got slaughtered and got replaced by a person to his economic and social left. That’s not really a loss for a historical Labor or Greens voter who wants more left wing things implemented, they’re still getting a representative they want in power. Hence why after the election many former LNP ministers were whinging about preferential voting since they believed Greens + Labor + Teals could now gang up on the LNP. The primary vote is far, far more of an issue for the LNP because their remaining senior ministers hold social and environmental beliefs completely against the majority of what the Independents believe in. All of the front runners are practically indistinguishable from the National Party and are apathetic towards the issue of climate change at best. | ||
iPlaY.NettleS
Australia4253 Posts
Even if there are a lot of independent ministers, Labor can still form government fairly easily. Surely Labor would prefer to govern in their own right, rather than to be held hostage to demands from the greens and teal independents? Lest they further lose their working class base. Take Scullin.Working class labor electorate in Melbourne.Labors first preference vote down 14% in one cycle in a Labor federal win.No teal independents running there.They can’t be happy with that. | ||
gobbledydook
Australia2590 Posts
This is much worse news for Liberal than Labor. Because the Greens will work with Labor, but never Liberal. If this shift becomes permanent, the Liberal Party as it is could never form government again. | ||
TDonkfarts
18 Posts
On May 24 2022 12:12 iPlaY.NettleS wrote: Surely Labor would prefer to govern in their own right, rather than to be held hostage to demands from the greens and teal independents? Lest they further lose their working class base. Take Scullin.Working class labor electorate in Melbourne.Labors first preference vote down 14% in one cycle in a Labor federal win.No teal independents running there.They can’t be happy with that. Would Labor prefer to have a Labor minister in power? Yes. For someone who isn’t a diehard Labor tragic, do I care? No I really do not. The independents and small parties voted in were not really far right like One Nation, it were all moderates and left wing. Labor can work with these like they did in the Gillard government. I do not think the current LNP can work with these. Funny you bring up Scullin because I actually live in Scullin (Thomastown if you want to be specific). The demographics in the last couple of years have been changing dramatically with the sheer amount of moderately priced (500,000+ townhouses) to expensive (+2 million plots in South Morang) developments being rammed through by Whittlesea. With the 1960s Mediterranean migrants dying out and their farms and 700 square meters residential blocks becoming vacant to the point every street has at least one vacant lot about to become a set of 3-4 townhouses, it really isn’t “working class” in the way you’re thinking. Especially when it’s incredibly well serviced with Costco, Pacific Epping and an express train line straight to Richmond and the CBD. There’s more yuppies in my street than actual blue collar workers lol. My 4 unit subdivision and the one across the street has three owners who are young professional lawyers who purchased their properties with solo income, hardly working class individuals. Despite all of this, I do not think Andrew Giles is terrified that he had a double digit swing against him seeing he crushed his LNP competitor with…a 21.7% margin. And again, Labor overall actually had an increase in primary vote if you take out the Teals. The swing in Scullin doesn’t really matter when Giles has no chance of losing any time soon and Labor is making gains elsewhere that is beneficial. | ||
iPlaY.NettleS
Australia4253 Posts
On May 24 2022 12:31 TDonkfarts wrote:The independents and small parties voted in were not really far right like One Nation, it were all moderates and left wing. Labor can work with these like they did in the Gillard government. Go for it, but expect another backlash like what happened under Gillard. The demographics in the last couple of years have been changing dramatically with the sheer amount of moderately priced (500,000+ townhouses) to expensive (+2 million plots in South Morang) developments being rammed through by Whittlesea. Yes, with the price of housing nowdays let’s just hope rates don’t keep rising or we are in a world of hurt.But how can they get inflation down without raising rates? Maybe this wasn’t a good election to win. Despite all of this, I do not think Andrew Giles is terrified that he had a double digit swing against him He should at least be asking why the backlash was so large.The huge swing was mirrored in several outer Melbourne electorates. The likely reason is working class backlash against Andrews’ long Covid lockdowns, Hence the combined UAP/One Nation/Lib Dem primary vote in your electorate being close to 20%. | ||
TDonkfarts
18 Posts
To answer your second paragraph: that is a strawman, I never mentioned whether or not it would be electorally beneficial for any party to win or lose this election. The cynical assertion that a member of the public would want their preferred political party to purposely lose an election for cynical short term political gains is frankly ridiculous and only makes sense if you’re viewing this from a perpetually online political warrior point of view. Me bringing up development in Scullin is to highlight how fast demographics are changing. You can say working class working class working class until you are blue in your face, the area is increasingly not working class in the traditional definition of the word. It is like saying Jagajaga is still a working class area when property prices are at least 600,000 for a townhouse - gentrification obviously results in different voting behaviours. To answer your third paragraph: the backlash appears so large because this is the first election One Nation and the Lib Dems out up a candidate in many areas. The UAP type protest votes have to go somewhere. Like I explained in several paragraphs, the demographics are changing. These aren’t your mum and dad’s working class areas. They’re as working class as today’s Brunswick - many people no longer are not working class at all, those that are will be technically working class in income but not industry or unionisation. The type of swings in Scullin and Calwell do not really matter because even a double digit swing still results in the safe seat candidate winning by double digit percentages. Giles still won by over 20% two party preferred. Meanwhile the LNP lost pretty much their remaining heartlands in Victoria. Like I alluded to, the LNP is pretty much one single party with the Liberals and Nationals all believing in the same thing. That’s reflected in the results where Labor, Greens and Independents - all groups who can work with each other politically - have wiped out the Liberals from Greater Melbourne. I don’t see how this remotely a bad result for anyone who votes for Labor for their policies rather than as a football team. Literally the only Greater Melbourne seat controlled by a right wing member now is Alan Tudge by ~5% after a +7% Labor swing. All of this is tangential to the original point, which is that Labor has actually overall increased their primary vote if you take out the Teals that only really went went after LNP members in LNP seats. Add another 0.2% if you take out the Fowler result, which is a case of Keneally trying to parachute into a safe Labor seat in the most corrupt and transparent way. | ||
iPlaY.NettleS
Australia4253 Posts
On May 24 2022 14:34 TDonkfarts wrote: To answer your first paragraph: the primary reason Labor has been out of power for so long was due to the backstabbing that produced an impression of chaos and instability. They cannot backstab our new Prime Minister unless 75% of the caucus agrees. This will not happen. The leaders were backstabbed because they had shockingly low approval ratings.Gillard bottomed out at 23% approval.Turnbull was backstabbed for the same reason and Morrison won an election after knifing him. Labor lost in 2019 because their leader had no charisma and they tried to remove negative gearing and the CGT discount in one go.Too much for people trying to plan their pension fund/retirement. It was a shame they lost though because negative gearing should go. It is like saying Jagajaga is still a working class area when property prices are at least 600,000 for a townhouse - gentrification obviously results in different voting behaviours. And like I said, if the RBA keeps raising rates to fight the high inflation that will send plenty of these mortgage holders under.Especially if they’ve bought in the past 5 years and end up in negative equity.Melbourne and Sydney hardest hit of course. Hopefully it all turns out ok.A serious economic downturn wouldn’t be good for the incumbents. All of this is tangential to the original point, which is that Labor has actually overall increased their primary vote if you take out the Teals that only really went went after LNP members in LNP seats. Add another 0.2% if you take out the Fowler result, which is a case of Keneally trying to parachute into a safe Labor seat in the most corrupt and transparent way. They should have increased their primary vote, considering they won the election.That you have to do acrobatics to get to that figure says enough.It’s good to see people not voting for the majors, as I stated firsthand. | ||
TDonkfarts
18 Posts
This is a seat that contains Toorak (of Toorak Tractor fame) and possibly the most $20,000 a year private schools in any electorate in Australia. You think a Labor candidate is going to make waves there? The Labor candidate for the most part pretty much got out of the way btw. That’s why I’m doing “gymnastics” removing the Teal seats because no shit Green and Labor voters are going to vote for someone who doesn’t immediately terrify the blue bloods. Because this is exactly what happened in just about every seat contested by the Teals - they weren’t going after Labor seats, they were all practically LNP heartland seats. And many of them were successful courting a Green, Labor and disgruntled LNP voting block. I do not understand why Labor would be concerned that their voters voted for an Independent more willing to work with him than let Josh Frydenberg get back in and continuously vote party line. Obviously this depresses your primary vote but who cares? Again, either you get an Independent who you can work with or you get Frydenberg back in. It’s not a hard choice! Also with regards to Dan Andrews fucking up, I should remind you that he gets a statue if he wins this 2022 election against Matthew Guy. He has been in power since 2014 and outlived every Liberal that has said he must step down. What right wing media says about him does not remotely reflect what Victorians actually feel about him. Same deal with McGowan, who would have the most unpopular closed borders policy if you were to trust News Corp but just managed to reduce LNP seats to single digits in the same state election. | ||
iPlaY.NettleS
Australia4253 Posts
Hopefully they change their position on that as with prices in Perth at close to 2.40/L already we don’t need a further 22 cents on top of that.Plus the higher the price goes the higher the GST on each litre becomes. Gotta feel for the battlers that Labor supposedly stands for. | ||
TDonkfarts
18 Posts
Infamous Dictator Dan, man in charge of the longest lockdown in the Western World, gets a statue after winning a third four year term. Labor should probably look at the major swings against them in extremely safe seats but probably won't because a 10 point swing against them in Williamstown doesn't really mean that much when you're still beating the LNP candidate by 25 points after taking into account preferences. People can talk about how a 9 point swing against in Broadmeadows is a sign that the "Aussie Battler" has had enough of Dictator Dan but its pretty meaningless because the LNP is just that underfunded and insipid in Victoria. That 9 point swing looks huge until you notice Kathleen Matthews-Ward is still beating Baris Duzova by 33 points after preferences. Its one of those examples I talked about in this thread of swings occuring in places that are currently meaningless. The bigger problem for the LNP is that any swings against them are actually translating into lost seats or extremely close to lost seats. Mornington, Benambra are actually contestable by the local Teal candidates. LNP even lost two seats to Labor. | ||
iPlaY.NettleS
Australia4253 Posts
https://www.smh.com.au/national/a-mass-migration-victorians-leave-the-state-at-record-rate-in-pandemic-20220710-p5b0fk.html A record number of Australians moved to another state or territory through the second year of the COVID-19 pandemic, with tens of thousands fleeing lockdowns and high infection rates in a demographic earthquake that could reverberate for years. Almost 500,000 people moved interstate in 2021, a 20 per cent increase on the previous record set in 2002, with Victoria suffering its biggest net loss of residents to other parts of the country since the state was enduring 12 per cent unemployment during the early-1990s recession. Through the final six months of 2021, Victoria lost 335 people a day to other parts of the country compared with 275 who moved in. More than 60,000 people left Victoria, the biggest outflow over a six-month history in records dating back to 1981. | ||
DropBear
Australia4191 Posts
There has been massive, generational change in this country that the Liberal party are ignorant of and do not represent, at either Federal or state level. They haven't been a 'liberal' party either socially or economically for a very long time. They should just fuck off and cease to exist, they no longer serve any purpose. At the very least rebrand as an actual conservative party and work out what it is they stand for. | ||
TDonkfarts
18 Posts
On November 27 2022 15:16 iPlaY.NettleS wrote: Yes, not surprising considering the opposition plus the fact that Victoria had the largest interstate exodus migration in 30 years.Vast majority went to QLD, safe bet that they disapproved of the lockdowns. https://www.smh.com.au/national/a-mass-migration-victorians-leave-the-state-at-record-rate-in-pandemic-20220710-p5b0fk.html You say that and yet the same article points the same trend with regards to NSW, in fact NSW had a greater per capita exodus than Victoria despite being more lax than Victoria with regards to lockdowns. Certainly there will be people who leave the state because of the lockdowns but the real reason is the excessive cost of living (housing really) in Melbourne and Sydney as well as the pandemic allowing people to re-evaluate their lives. This is more acutely felt in America, where there was a trend of mass resignations and demand for work from home options because the pandemic allowed to evaluate that they prefer better work-life balance than whatever shit their employer was shoving down their throats. My personal trainer left Victoria not because of the lockdowns but because he realised life is too short and he should spend the most of his 20s travelling Australia. The couple interviewed in the article have basically the same attitude. If I were going to go somewhere, I’d go to Queensland because the weather isn’t trash like Victoria or NSW right now lol. On November 27 2022 20:18 DropBear wrote: The Liberal party have had nothing to offer beyond "the other team sucks" for over a decade now, ever since the "budget emergency" from old mate Tony Abbott. There has been massive, generational change in this country that the Liberal party are ignorant of and do not represent, at either Federal or state level. They haven't been a 'liberal' party either socially or economically for a very long time. They should just fuck off and cease to exist, they no longer serve any purpose. At the very least rebrand as an actual conservative party and work out what it is they stand for. The problem with the LNP is that they’re basically financially destitute because they pulled a Republican Party and entered a coalition with the Religious Right, with the idea that they could control them. Their traditional “fuck you got mine” base is no longer giving them money because they’ve ceded so much party control to the nutters. The problem with the Religious Right is that they don’t really care about anything beyond whatever culture war bullshit they care about in the moment, even if it’s wildly against what Australians believe. For instance, Australia’s Anglican bishops had to block the house of laity and clergy from committing community suicide by isolating the Anglican Church from the rest of Australia and objecting to same-sex unions. Where the Anglican laity and clergy might oppose same sex marriage, the elite religious private schools in Boroondara (Frydenberg’s former seat) all have strict anti-discrimination stances as far as I am aware. Camberwell Grammar in particular has openly supported trans rights despite being an Anglican grammar school, there’s a substantial disconnect from what should be the LNP’s traditional wealthy voter and donor base and who they’re pandering to. This pandering works in places like the US because they largely don’t have rank choice voting. Australians have the option to just vote the Teal candidate, which they are doing in many traditionally safe (read: affluent, not terribly strictly religious) Liberal seats and not worry about splitting the vote with Labor/Green voters. While the Religious Right does give money to the LNP, their traditional base of wealthy entrepreneurs and citizens are not because they’re pandering so hard to the nutters in an environment where we have rank choice voting. That’s not to say they can’t win again but there’s a reason why they’re getting wiped in a lot of states where they no longer have a large moderate wing. | ||
iPlaY.NettleS
Australia4253 Posts
We had close family move out of Melbourne due to the lockdowns.They went to regional Victoria.She was still able to work remotely at her old job and commute in to Melbourne a few times per month.Good for regional areas, maybe not so great for the city which has lost a lot with the work from home trend.Can't say i agree with the Melbourne mayors comments last week that the pandemic has been good for Melbourne. | ||
TDonkfarts
18 Posts
Coastal Queensland is getting the brunt of the migration and I kind of don't blame them. You can get cheaper rental rates than Melbourne/Sydney, get to live next to prime beaches, and not deal with the shitty weather we get in most of NSW and Victoria. The long time locals probably hate the pressure on rental and property prices and the traffic though lol. That being said, I think you're reading the graph wrong? They're saying in the period between 2018-2019, NSW lost 44,000 in that period and lost a further 55,000 during the covid years. Victoria gained 24,000 in the period between 2018-2019 and then lost 32,000 during the covid years. Its not a total loss of 56,000 in Victoria, the numbers listed are only for the period they are referencing. This tracks with the ABS data (search Regional internal migration estimates, provisional) which shows NSW losing around 5,000 residents every quarter (the article they have list quarters ending March 2020, December 2020, March 2021) to internal migration while Victoria tread water before seeing similar trends to NSW. There's no way there's only a net loss of only 10,000 to internal migration in NSW with the ABS data provided unless one of the quarters had a huge net internal migration that made up for all the losses...which is doubtful. The lockdowns had an impact but not for the strictly Dictator Dan reasons Sky News and the Herald Sun often like to suggest. Working from Home gives people flexibility and the pandemic gave people time to reevaluate their lives. If you could move, there's almost no reason not to especially with rental prices being completely stupid in Sydney and Melbourne. The Melbourne CBD issue is strictly an international migration/student issue imo and that's certainly where our lockdowns had a signficant impact. I know Monards, the luxury jewellery/watch store, had sales drop by around 90% because there were no Chinese customers during our lockdowns lol. I imagine a lot of other stores in the CBD would have suffered from the same problem. | ||
iPlaY.NettleS
Australia4253 Posts
Sure, his claimed figure of $7 billion IS a lot of money to spend for the event but this is solely because Andrews decided in his wisdom to hold the CommGames across four regional cities instead of having it in Melbourne which already largely has the infrastructure. | ||
DropBear
Australia4191 Posts
On July 21 2023 17:48 iPlaY.NettleS wrote: Shocking to see people online defending Victorian premier Dan Andrews over his latest idiotic move, cancelling the 2026 Commonwealth Games at a press conference a few days ago. Sure, his claimed figure of $7 billion IS a lot of money to spend for the event but this is solely because Andrews decided in his wisdom to hold the CommGames across four regional cities instead of having it in Melbourne which already largely has the infrastructure. Literally who cares about the Commonwealth Games. Hooray let's pay billions to host a third rate competition just to give the English royals an enormous ego trip as they look at all the countries they used to own. The question isn't why did he pull out, it's why did he bid for it in the first place. | ||
| ||