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How does a professional team get outdrafted by their opponents?
To preface, I am not a DotA player, only a very casual watcher. I don't know much about drafting other than the basic structure of it, but it doesn't seem like it is that complicated. I don't feel like a professional team should really lose in the draft, yet I consistently hear criticism about drafts costing games at the professional level.
Examples from the last couple days:
+ Show Spoiler + "PPD's shitcan drafts really put them in a hole from the beginning, and that's why EG was in the position that they were. Had PDD drafted better and not played as greedy on supports, they probably take 2nd and have a real solid shot at beating Newbee."
"wtf was that draft game 3 PPD"
"TI4 also revealed a lot of weaknesses in TL's draft"
So what is causing one team to outdraft the other? Are there traps that can be set for the opponent?
Can someone take a real draft where it is almost universally agreed that one team outdrafted the other and try to go through the mindset of the professional on the losing side pick-by-pick? I'd like to see how reasonable/rational thoughts end up with a draft-loss.
Please avoid the "herp-derp, I suck so I pick X" attribution of logic. We're trying to discuss some of the best in the world who will have some logic behind their decisions. Please also keep the examples to actual professional games, not some random idiot from your latest pub game.
Perhaps seeing how an intelligent team/captain can get outdrafted will be instructional for everyone on the complicated dynamics of the draft and where teams can falter or get an edge.
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even good captains miss blatant weaknesses in their drafts when actually drafting. this is one reason for getting outpicked. you dont know how weak your lineup is until the drafts are finished and you actually start your game
the 2nd reason is you draft to a gameplan which you failed to execute, and so the audience sees your draft that is no longer working and calls it outdrafted. the typical pub player will say x team got outdrafted a lot more than the team actually did because the typical pub player wouldnt understand the plan behind the draft in the 1st place. failure to execute a difficult gameplan = outdrafted in the eyes of the audience
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when the enemy have 5 heroes that can hit towers and the only aoe to stop creep waves you have is acid spray, then u know that u dun goofed.
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On July 30 2014 14:12 evilfatsh1t wrote:
the 2nd reason is you draft to a gameplan which you failed to execute, and so the audience sees your draft that is no longer working and calls it outdrafted. the typical pub player will say x team got outdrafted a lot more than the team actually did because the typical pub player wouldnt understand the plan behind the draft in the 1st place. failure to execute a difficult gameplan = outdrafted in the eyes of the audience
So a lot of the so-called outdrafted situations aren't really a case of an outdraft, but instead it's merely bad execution being blamed on the draft? Is there a way to know the difference without being extremely good at the game?
On July 30 2014 14:31 ChunderBoy wrote:
when the enemy have 5 heroes that can hit towers and the only aoe to stop creep waves you have is acid spray, then u know that u dun goofed.
Are you saying that the captain in that case really just did a "herp-derp, I forgot that we should have AoE to protect towers"?
Was it a case of tunnel vision where he has a plan for his team and didn't take into account what the opponent was doing? Was there some sort of trap set by the opponents where they made it seem like they were using another strategy and then suddenly it's 5 heroes that can hit towers and he didn't have enough picks left to prevent it?
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I think outdrafting is about having a well-synergized team composition with a specific objective in mind, and that objective being superior to the one of the enemy. We've seen plenty of instances wherein a team gets a draft that theoretically destroys the other team's draft (in terms of expected gameplay), but then they get shut down hard in the laning phase and the draft's objective never really takes off (or in some instances, they simply get outplayed).
In the oft-cited game 3 of VG v EG, VG had a very predictable way of playing that EG failed to capitalize on at the drafting phase. You need counterpush (at least some form of clearing the creep waves to prevent tower damage), or you need a better teamfight lineup, neither of which EG drafted (arguably EG drafted quite a greedy midgame teamfighting lineup which had no way to defend its towers absent perfect initiation).
There are some clear-cut drafting mistakes though, like drafting a hero that's traditionally weak against an enemy hero that's already picked, or leaving a situational pick vulnerable to a later pick.
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You are right about the tunnel vision. Vici showed in the grand finals how it cost them to be outdrafted. They were too focused in executing a mass summons/wards push that they neglected to consider their opponents draft's ability to deal with it. They picked prophet + veno which limits the flexibility of their draft, and they were pretty much all in from that point.
Another point to note is how some teams end up feeling like they have no more heroes to pick. Then they have to pick a sub optimal hero that they are not exactly the most comfortable with. You could say the grand finals was also an example of this. Newbee banned razor, a hero that vici really favours. The hero can handle lanes solo, gets you an early mek + suppressed lane opponent, allows you to push early or wait later game with Agha. Kinda integral to vici play style. Although you could also argue as with the first point that vici had tunnel vision and didn't pick tide/ doom instead.
Then there's some masterful cases where the surprise last few picks changes everything. Most common would be a meepo pick which is kinda unstoppable without the right draft. Same goes for naga, or kotl pl, or visage drow, although for some of them its kinda deserved outdraft because they failed to ban them, as sometimes these picks are obvious and not surprising.
Then there's stupidity like no anti push against a push start as chunder boy mentioned.
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There are three different situations where I think it's correct to say a team got "outdrafted:"
1. Both teams drafted lineups that looked reasonable, and it wasn't obvious at the end of the draft that one team had an advantage...but as it turns out, one team's combo just doesn't work as well as the other's. This I think is the one that happens most often among top tier pro teams, and it's also the one that's hardest to tell from winning on execution. Casters and pubtrash posters like me will often talk about how we think this has happened in a given game...but half the time we'll be wrong. I don't think there's any way to reliably identify these kinds of outdrafts without being extremely good at the game.
2. One team gets blindsided by something that they didn't realize they had to be ready for...either a last pick that turns the whole draft on its head ("oh shit that wasn't a carry Mirana, it was a support Mirana and they last picked Pugna and we have no early counterpush"), or some pocket strat that nobody knew was strong until it got pulled out (e.g., C9's Drow/Visage). This stuff is relatively easy to spot when it happens (usually casters will shout excitedly about it), but pros are good enough that they don't let it happen very often.
3. A drafter really does fuck up and fails to see something that should have been easy to prepare for. This doesn't happen very often in pro dota, for obvious reasons. I think the reason PPD's getting so much flame lately is that some of his underwhelming drafts have been hard to chalk up to anything besides this category.
*edit* No, PPD is not a Point Defense Drone. Damn you muscle memory.
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its strategies or nuances of the lineups
but more often they just completely go brain dead and make dumb picks
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The biggest case of outdraft I remember is EG picking entirely too greedy and choosing to go for no wave clear against VG, who were clearly going for deathball push.
It's funny, because that's a fairly basic concept too..
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All of these are good points and I would like to add one more which is ease of execution.
If drafts are relatively equal, this can be a huge factor. Navi vs C9 game 3 at TI4 is a great example. I think Navi horribly outdrafted C9 in the sense that, C9 had to play the perfect early/mid game to not get rolled. C9 won the game but they won by executing flawlessly. Any mistake would've cost them the game. Just for reference, these are the heroes
Navi:
Brew
Shaman
Furion
Death Prophet
AA
C9:
Doom
SWM
Ember
Clock
BH
Navi have much better everything besides pick off potential and if C9 loses a hero or two, Navi's lineup can easily punish them for 1 maybe even two towers. In addition, C9's lineup is heavily reliant on clock's ult (a skillshot) for initiation as well as ember's SOF + chains combo for damage. Shaman can just drop wards and DP can just ult. You get the idea.
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On July 30 2014 18:58 eekmice wrote:
All of these are good points and I would like to add one more which is ease of execution.
If drafts are relatively equal, this can be a huge factor. Navi vs C9 game 3 at TI4 is a great example. I think Navi horribly outdrafted C9 in the sense that, C9 had to play the perfect early/mid game to not get rolled. C9 won the game but they won by executing flawlessly. Any mistake would've cost them the game. Just for reference, these are the heroes
Navi:
Brew
Shaman
Furion
Death Prophet
AA
C9:
Doom
SWM
Ember
Clock
BH
Navi have much better everything besides pick off potential and if C9 loses a hero or two, Navi's lineup can easily punish them for 1 maybe even two towers. In addition, C9's lineup is heavily reliant on clock's ult (a skillshot) for initiation as well as ember's SOF + chains combo for damage. Shaman can just drop wards and DP can just ult. You get the idea.
A draft having a small margin of error doesn't have anything to do with getting outdrafted.
On the topic of the notion of outdraft, surely there are cases where one team is to lose because of the draft if no mistakes are made, but thanks to randomness and fog of war and people just making mistakes in general draft isn't everything.
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On July 30 2014 17:04 ASoo wrote:
There are three different situations where I think it's correct to say a team got "outdrafted:"
1. Both teams drafted lineups that looked reasonable, and it wasn't obvious at the end of the draft that one team had an advantage...but as it turns out, one team's combo just doesn't work as well as the other's. This I think is the one that happens most often among top tier pro teams, and it's also the one that's hardest to tell from winning on execution. Casters and pubtrash posters like me will often talk about how we think this has happened in a given game...but half the time we'll be wrong. I don't think there's any way to reliably identify these kinds of outdrafts without being extremely good at the game.
2. One team gets blindsided by something that they didn't realize they had to be ready for...either a last pick that turns the whole draft on its head ("oh shit that wasn't a carry Mirana, it was a support Mirana and they last picked Pugna and we have no early counterpush"), or some pocket strat that nobody knew was strong until it got pulled out (e.g., C9's Drow/Visage). This stuff is relatively easy to spot when it happens (usually casters will shout excitedly about it), but pros are good enough that they don't let it happen very often.
3. A drafter really does fuck up and fails to see something that should have been easy to prepare for. This doesn't happen very often in pro dota, for obvious reasons. I think the reason PPD's getting so much flame lately is that some of his underwhelming drafts have been hard to chalk up to anything besides this category.
*edit* No, PPD is not a Point Defense Drone. Damn you muscle memory.
Another time I would add is when a captain has to adapt on the fly because of opponent picks or bans. Such as if they were banking on 1 of 2 specific heroes, but the enemy team picks 1 and bans the other, the captain has to resort to something else that is not familiar and in turn can lead to a hasty "bad" pick. Usually most captains pick in such a way that even after their first 2 picks, that can lead into 4 or 5 different line ups depending so they always have a backup plan, but they can still get caught out.
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Let's say your team is running the C9 drow ranger + visage ultra range damage line up, most of your team's damage come from Drow's aura which is also dependent on her passive not being disabled by enemy heroes in her proximity. However, your enemy team have elusive cores that can quickly close the distance to Drow and kill her (like Slark, Morphling, Antimage) and are hard to kill without solid disables. This would be an example of an outdraft, if your team didn't ban out the aforementioned elusive, gap-closing cores in the early phase of the draft.
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people get confused too much between outplayed and outdrafted.
losing because you failed your execution/opponent executed their gameplan too well isnt getting outdrafted. its getting outplayed.
outdrafted is your draft just being downright worse than your opponents, and bar any major screw ups from the opponents there is no way youre going to win.
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There is also the situation that happened with [A] last year, where up until the finals no one really had any clue how to stop their drafts just because everyone thought you couldn't ban enough heroes to stop their strat, even though you knew pretty much exactly what they were going to do.
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On July 30 2014 23:56 BigO wrote:
There is also the situation that happened with [A] last year, where up until the finals no one really had any clue how to stop their drafts just because everyone thought you couldn't ban enough heroes to stop their strat, even though you knew pretty much exactly what they were going to do.
the last game in the finals was more about navi herp derp pushing the mid lane after taking rosh while both sidelanes were already getting pushed by creeps alone... dendi sold or dropped his tp to get the aegis ( i knew at that point that they lost)
and in ti4 ppl herp derped and forgot that kotl exists and kotl scepter buff went unnoticed??!?
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On July 31 2014 00:35 ChunderBoy wrote:Show nested quote +On July 30 2014 23:56 BigO wrote:
There is also the situation that happened with [A] last year, where up until the finals no one really had any clue how to stop their drafts just because everyone thought you couldn't ban enough heroes to stop their strat, even though you knew pretty much exactly what they were going to do. the last game in the finals was more about navi herp derp pushing the mid lane after taking rosh while both sidelanes were already getting pushed by creeps alone... dendi sold or dropped his tp to get the aegis ( i knew at that point that they lost) and in ti4 ppl herp derped and forgot that kotl exists and kotl scepter buff went unnoticed??!?
kotl was tested in scrims but its just a nonfactor in the early game and too weak to facerush in the midgame despite its waveclearing
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On July 31 2014 00:35 ChunderBoy wrote:Show nested quote +On July 30 2014 23:56 BigO wrote:
There is also the situation that happened with [A] last year, where up until the finals no one really had any clue how to stop their drafts just because everyone thought you couldn't ban enough heroes to stop their strat, even though you knew pretty much exactly what they were going to do. the last game in the finals was more about navi herp derp pushing the mid lane after taking rosh while both sidelanes were already getting pushed by creeps alone... dendi sold or dropped his tp to get the aegis ( i knew at that point that they lost) and in ti4 ppl herp derped and forgot that kotl exists and kotl scepter buff went unnoticed??!?
Ye I just ment that in general, teams didn't know how to draft against Alliance even though they knew exactly what they were going to do. That last game it felt like Alliance was "outdrafted" but some fortunate events and good plays made sure they got the win they deserved.
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On July 30 2014 21:18 Trustworthy-Tony wrote:Show nested quote +On July 30 2014 18:58 eekmice wrote:
All of these are good points and I would like to add one more which is ease of execution.
If drafts are relatively equal, this can be a huge factor. Navi vs C9 game 3 at TI4 is a great example. I think Navi horribly outdrafted C9 in the sense that, C9 had to play the perfect early/mid game to not get rolled. C9 won the game but they won by executing flawlessly. Any mistake would've cost them the game. Just for reference, these are the heroes
Navi:
Brew
Shaman
Furion
Death Prophet
AA
C9:
Doom
SWM
Ember
Clock
BH
Navi have much better everything besides pick off potential and if C9 loses a hero or two, Navi's lineup can easily punish them for 1 maybe even two towers. In addition, C9's lineup is heavily reliant on clock's ult (a skillshot) for initiation as well as ember's SOF + chains combo for damage. Shaman can just drop wards and DP can just ult. You get the idea.
A draft having a small margin of error doesn't have anything to do with getting outdrafted. On the topic of the notion of outdraft, surely there are cases where one team is to lose because of the draft if no mistakes are made, but thanks to randomness and fog of war and people just making mistakes in general draft isn't everything.
I totally agree. After the draft i thought Navi got this. Ember vs DP should at least be even for dp, doom swm and bh cant really kill prophet if prophet isnt caught out and an underleveled tri-lane or roaming bh does nothing, especially against push. Clock against aa shaman brew would be at best as successful as prophet's lane, so all three lanes should go even or better for navi and when they get 6 on dp and brew, they can just go and push. C9 couldnt really teamfight on even farm and Navi pushes a lot faster, so splitpush isnt really an option. C9 cant counterpush, because their counterpush is terrible. Their initiation is about even, clock's initiation is a lot harder to pull of and split early in the teamfight is very strong, but brew has the long cd.
Navi had the better push, the better laning stage, the better teamfight. The only thing they were worse at is ganking potential, but what did it matter if Navi didnt need to farm after 6?
As things turned out it did matter a lot. Funnik was caught out of position early on, bounty got his fast lvl 2, rotated and they killed Dendi again and again, even though he had a sentry. With dp and prophet more or less out of the picture and brew only being savelane brew, Navi couldnt really fight, which meant that their entire plan collapsed.
I still think that Navi outdrafted c9, but c9 outexecuted them by far.
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On July 31 2014 00:35 ChunderBoy wrote:Show nested quote +On July 30 2014 23:56 BigO wrote:
There is also the situation that happened with [A] last year, where up until the finals no one really had any clue how to stop their drafts just because everyone thought you couldn't ban enough heroes to stop their strat, even though you knew pretty much exactly what they were going to do. the last game in the finals was more about navi herp derp pushing the mid lane after taking rosh while both sidelanes were already getting pushed by creeps alone... dendi sold or dropped his tp to get the aegis ( i knew at that point that they lost) and in ti4 ppl herp derped and forgot that kotl exists and kotl scepter buff went unnoticed??!?
Well, kotl scepter buff is pretty irrelevant when the push starts at minute 5....
And kotl doesnt seem to bring enough to the early game fighting which will inevitably happen when they come for your towers so early. At least the pros dont seem to think so.
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EPT
