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Gold Enters Backwardation

Blogs > jgad
Post a Reply
jgad
Profile Blog Joined March 2008
Canada899 Posts
Last Edited: 2008-12-08 14:16:02
December 08 2008 14:15 GMT
#1
I'm not sure how many people care about economics and finance, but if this persists it could be a major turning point in the finacial collapse.

Kitco Article : Red Alert: Gold Backwardation!!!

Wiki : Backwardation

From the article :

Negative basis (backwardation) means that people controlling the supply of monetary gold cannot be persuaded to part with it, regardless of the bait. These people are no speculators. They are neither Scrooges nor Shylocks. They are highly capable businessmen with a conservative frame of mind. They are determined to preserve their capital come hell or high water, for saner times, so they can re-deploy it under a saner government and a saner monetary system. Their instrument is the ownership of monetary gold. They blithely ignore the siren song promising risk-free profits. Indeed, they could sell their physical gold in the spot market and buy it back at a discount in the futures market for delivery in 30 days. In any other commodity, traders controlling supply would jump at the opportunity. The lure of risk-free profits would be irresistible. Not so in the case of gold. Owners refuse to be coaxed out of their gold holdings, however large the bait may be. Why?

Well, they don’t believe that the physical gold will be there and available for delivery in 30 days’ time. They don’t want to be stuck with paper gold, which is useless for their purposes of capital preservation.

December 2 is a landmark, because before that date the monetary system could have been saved by opening the U.S. Mint to gold. Now, given the fact of gold backwardation, it is too late. The last chance to avoid disaster has been missed. The proverbial last straw has broken the back of the camel.

*
콩까지마
Cpt.Cocaine
Profile Joined June 2008
Canada299 Posts
December 08 2008 15:34 GMT
#2
lol at the economy.
Wurzelbrumpft
Profile Blog Joined July 2008
Germany471 Posts
December 08 2008 17:22 GMT
#3
i dont get it people who own actual gold dont wana give it away, why is this a major turning point
beam me up scotty, this planet suxX
jgad
Profile Blog Joined March 2008
Canada899 Posts
Last Edited: 2008-12-08 17:49:59
December 08 2008 17:41 GMT
#4
It's a sign that people who hold gold are worried about financial stability. They aren't willing to sell gold in their hands today and buy it back at a discount in February.

Consider the example :

I offer to give you a ticket to Blizzcon if you lend me your car for a week. I've already bought the ticket and I'll give it to you right now - up front. I promise to give you your car back at the end of the week and, what's more, I won't even drive it. A truck will come to pick it up - we won't even turn on the engine.

The car I give back to you at the end of the week won't have any use put on it at all. You'll be away on holiday that week so you won't even miss it - you wouldn't have used it anyway. What's more, you're getting the ticket to Blizzcon *and* you don't have to pay for your parking permit for the whole week.

But you don't take me up on the offer. Why? The only logical reason is that you have good reason to believe that, come the end of the week, I may not have a car to give back to you.

This is what's going on in the gold market. Whether it persists or not will determine how much of a turning point it is, but the fact that it happened at all is bizarro rare.
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