• Log InLog In
  • Register
Liquid`
Team Liquid Liquipedia
EDT 06:44
CEST 12:44
KST 19:44
  • Home
  • Forum
  • Calendar
  • Streams
  • Liquipedia
  • Features
  • Store
  • EPT
  • TL+
  • StarCraft 2
  • Brood War
  • Smash
  • Heroes
  • Counter-Strike
  • Overwatch
  • Liquibet
  • Fantasy StarCraft
  • TLPD
  • StarCraft 2
  • Brood War
  • Blogs
Forum Sidebar
Events/Features
News
Featured News
TL.net Map Contest #22 - Voting & Ladder Map Selection1Code S Season 2 (2026) - RO8 Preview4[ASL21] Finals Preview: Two Legacies21Code S Season 2 (2026) - RO12 Preview2herO wins GSL Code S Season 1 (2026)7
Community News
StarCraft II 5.0.16 PTR Patch Notes may 26th95Weekly Cups (May 18-25): MaxPax wins doubles0Crank Gathers Season 4: BW vs SC2 Team League4Weekly Cups (May 11-17): Classic wins double1Code S Season 1 (2026) - RO8 Results2
StarCraft 2
General
StarCraft II 5.0.16 PTR Patch Notes may 26th Changing from 12 to 8 is just asking for StarCraft TL Poll: How do you feel about the 5.0.16 PTR balance changes? Weekly Cups (May 11-17): Classic wins double TL.net Map Contest #22 - Voting & Ladder Map Selection
Tourneys
RSL Revival: Season 5 - Qualifiers and Main Event GSL Code S Season 2 (2026) Sparkling Tuna Cup - Weekly Open Tournament Crank Gathers Season 4: BW vs SC2 Team League GSL Code S Season 1 (2026)
Strategy
[G] Having the right mentality to improve
Custom Maps
[D]RTS in all its shapes and glory <3 [A] Nemrods 1/4 players
External Content
Welcome to the External Content forum Mutation # 527 Hell Train The PondCast: SC2 News & Results Mutation # 526 Rubber and Glue
Brood War
General
Soma's ASL Finals Review BW General Discussion OGN to release AI-upscaled StarLeague from Feb 24 FlaShFTW vs A.Alm Grudge Match Event BGH Auto Balance -> http://bghmmr.eu/
Tourneys
[ASL21] Grand Finals [Megathread] Daily Proleagues Escore Tournament StarCraft Season 2 [BSL22] WB Final & LB Semis - Saturday 21:00 CEST
Strategy
Any training maps people recommend? Muta micro map competition [G] Hydra ZvZ: An Introduction Fighting Spirit mining rates
Other Games
General Games
Stormgate/Frost Giant Megathread Nintendo Switch Thread ZeroSpace Megathread Path of Exile Dawn of War IV
Dota 2
Official 'what is Dota anymore' discussion
League of Legends
Heroes of the Storm
Simple Questions, Simple Answers Heroes of the Storm 2.0
Hearthstone
Deck construction bug Heroes of StarCraft mini-set
TL Mafia
Vanilla Mini Mafia Mafia Game Mode Feedback/Ideas TL Mafia Community Thread Five o'clock TL Mafia
Community
General
Russo-Ukrainian War Thread US Politics Mega-thread Things Aren’t Peaceful in Palestine Trading/Investing Thread Dating: How's your luck?
Fan Clubs
The herO Fan Club!
Media & Entertainment
[Manga] One Piece Anime Discussion Thread [Req][Books] Good Fantasy/SciFi books
Sports
2024 - 2026 Football Thread McBoner: A hockey love story TeamLiquid Health and Fitness Initiative For 2023 Formula 1 Discussion
World Cup 2022
Tech Support
Computer Build, Upgrade & Buying Resource Thread Facing Challenges in Mobile App Development
TL Community
The Automated Ban List
Blogs
Esportsmanship: How to NOT B…
TrAiDoS
Why RTS gamers make better f…
gosubay
ramps on octagon
StaticNine
ASL S21 English Commentary…
namkraft
Customize Sidebar...

Website Feedback

Closed Threads



Active: 2286 users

Probability question

Blogs > frozenclaw
Post a Reply
frozenclaw
Profile Blog Joined December 2006
Canada410 Posts
May 30 2008 14:52 GMT
#1
Hi guys, I have a math question that's been bugging me. If a baseball player has a 1/4 chance of making a hit on any trial, what is the theoretical probability that he will make 3 or more hits in 5 trials? All I managed to determine was that there are 1024 possibilities since 1/4^5=1/1024. Alright thanks a lot guys.

*
goldrush
Profile Blog Joined June 2004
Canada709 Posts
Last Edited: 2008-05-30 15:16:37
May 30 2008 15:11 GMT
#2
Binomial series:
1
1 1
1 2 1
1 3 3 1
1 4 6 4 1
1 5 10 10 5 1

It's been a while since I did probability, but it should be:

10 * (0.25)^3(0.75)^2 [three hits] + 5 * (0.25)^4(0.75) [four hits] + 1 * 0.25^5 [five hits]
= 0.1035 or approximately 10.35%

Something like that. =P

There are only 32 different cases. Imagine that 1 represent a hit and 0 represents a miss:

11111

In reality, each number has only two cases, either a 1 or a 0. Therefore, the number of different cases is 2^5 or 32.
Myrmidon
Profile Blog Joined December 2004
United States9452 Posts
Last Edited: 2008-05-30 15:20:08
May 30 2008 15:18 GMT
#3
(5 choose 3) ways to get 3 hits exactly = 10
(5 choose 4) ways to get 4 hits exactly = 5
(5 choose 5) ways to get 5 hits exactly = 1

Probability of getting a specific combination of 3 hits = (1/4)^3 * (3/4)^2 = 9/1024
Probability of getting a specific combination of 4 hits = (1/4)^4 * (3/4)^1 = 3/1024
Probability of getting a specific combination of 3 hits = (1/4)^5 * (3/4)^0 = 1/1024

By specific combination of 3 hits I mean:
hit hit hit miss miss
or
hit miss miss hit hit
etc.
(there were 10 of those as calculated at top)

Total probability:
ways to get 3 hits * prob of specific 3 hits + ways to get 4 hits * prob of 4 hits + ways to get 5 hits * prob of 5 hits

= (10)(9/1024) + (5)(3/1024) + (1)(1/1024) = 53/512 ~= 10.35%

edit: dammit my connection went down before I could post >_<;;
mikeymoo
Profile Blog Joined October 2006
Canada7170 Posts
Last Edited: 2008-05-30 15:21:01
May 30 2008 15:20 GMT
#4
3 hits:
5C3*(1/4)^3*(3/4)^2
4 hits:
5C4*(1/4)^4*(3/4)^1
5 hits:
5C5*(1/4)^5*(3/4)^0
EDIT: zomg fuck you all
o_x | Ow. | 1003 ESPORTS dollars | If you have any questions about bans please PM Kennigit
frozenclaw
Profile Blog Joined December 2006
Canada410 Posts
May 30 2008 15:37 GMT
#5
Wow, thanks a lot guys, I was trying to figure this out in school.
il0seonpurpose
Profile Blog Joined January 2007
Korea (South)5638 Posts
May 30 2008 18:50 GMT
#6
Yeah, you have to use C.
Please log in or register to reply.
Live Events Refresh
RSL Revival
07:00
Season 5: Playoffs Day 6
herO vs ClemLIVE!
Tasteless2368
IntoTheiNu 561
Ryung 485
IndyStarCraft 271
3DClanTV 163
Rex138
LiquipediaDiscussion
[ Submit Event ]
Live Streams
Refresh
StarCraft 2
Tasteless 2368
Ryung 485
IndyStarCraft 271
Rex 138
StarCraft: Brood War
Sea 6522
firebathero 4279
Horang2 2085
EffOrt 319
Last 119
sorry 112
ZerO 105
ToSsGirL 73
Sacsri 58
JulyZerg 51
[ Show more ]
[sc1f]eonzerg 49
hero 28
Rush 21
NotJumperer 18
IntoTheRainbow 17
Barracks 15
Nal_rA 14
Movie 7
Dota 2
XcaliburYe78
Counter-Strike
edward211
Heroes of the Storm
MindelVK14
Other Games
summit1g10675
Happy316
Mew2King64
ZerO(Twitch)14
Organizations
Counter-Strike
PGL260
StarCraft: Brood War
lovetv 27
StarCraft 2
Blizzard YouTube
StarCraft: Brood War
BSLTrovo
[ Show 12 non-featured ]
StarCraft 2
• AfreecaTV YouTube
• intothetv
• Kozan
• IndyKCrew
• LaughNgamezSOOP
• Migwel
• sooper7s
StarCraft: Brood War
• BSLYoutube
• STPLYoutube
• ZZZeroYoutube
League of Legends
• Nemesis2458
• Stunt589
Upcoming Events
Maestros of the Game
2h 16m
SHIN vs Nicoract
Rogue vs Gerald
ByuN vs Shameless
Cure vs TriGGeR
OSC
2h 16m
IPSL
5h 16m
Dragon vs Artosis
dxtr13 vs Hawk
Showmatch
5h 16m
Percival vs Lambo
ByuN vs Clem
YoungYakov vs GuMiho
ByuN vs Creator
BSL
8h 16m
Wardi Open
1d 1h
Monday Night Weeklies
1d 5h
Replay Cast
1d 13h
Sparkling Tuna Cup
1d 23h
WardiTV Spring Champion…
2 days
[ Show More ]
Maestros of the Game
2 days
The PondCast
2 days
Kung Fu Cup
3 days
uThermal 2v2 Circuit
3 days
Maestros of the Game
3 days
Replay Cast
3 days
Replay Cast
3 days
WardiTV Spring Champion…
4 days
Maestros of the Game
4 days
Replay Cast
4 days
uThermal 2v2 Circuit
5 days
Maestros of the Game
5 days
Replay Cast
5 days
Solar vs Classic
uThermal 2v2 Circuit
6 days
GSL
6 days
Liquipedia Results

Completed

Escore Tournament S2: King of Kings
2026 GSL S1
Heroes Pulsing #1

Ongoing

2026 KK StarCraft Pro League
BSL Season 22
IPSL Spring 2026
KCM Race Survival 2026 Season 2
KK 2v2 League Season 1
Acropolis #4
CSCL: Masked Kings S4
YSL S3
SCTL 2026 Spring
WardiTV Spring 2026
Maestros of the Game 2
2026 GSL S2
RSL Revival: Season 5
Murky Cup 2026
Stake Ranked Episode 2
CS Asia Championships 2026
Asian Champions League 2026
IEM Atlanta 2026
PGL Astana 2026
BLAST Rivals Spring 2026
IEM Rio 2026
PGL Bucharest 2026
Stake Ranked Episode 1
BLAST Open Spring 2026

Upcoming

BSL 22 Non-Korean Championship
CSLAN 4
Blizzard Classic Cup 2026
Kung Fu Cup 2026 Grand Finals
CranK Gathers Season 4: BW vs SC2 Team League
HSC XXIX
uThermal 2v2 2026 Main Event
Heroes Pulsing #3
Heroes Pulsing #2
Esports World Cup 2026
BLAST Bounty Summer 2026
BLAST Bounty Summer Qual
Stake Ranked Episode 3
XSE Pro League 2026
IEM Cologne Major 2026
TLPD

1. ByuN
2. TY
3. Dark
4. Solar
5. Stats
6. Nerchio
7. sOs
8. soO
9. INnoVation
10. Elazer
1. Rain
2. Flash
3. EffOrt
4. Last
5. Bisu
6. Soulkey
7. Mini
8. Sharp
Sidebar Settings...

Advertising | Privacy Policy | Terms Of Use | Contact Us

Original banner artwork: Jim Warren
The contents of this webpage are copyright © 2026 TLnet. All Rights Reserved.