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We now know the winners of the open qualifiers for each region, which means we can begin to talk about our predictions and ideas for what will happen in the main qualifiers for each region!
I'll try to gather as much information as I can on recent win rates of each of these teams so we have some objective data as well as our subjective opinions.
Americas
Root Gaming - FLUFFNSTUFF, TC, Moo, monkeysforever, Fun - 9/6 since April 1
eHug - Justin, inphinity, MJW, jaH, Bloody Nine - 6/8 since April 1
Not Today - Mstco, Ifrit, SmAsH, VaNn, StingeR - 12/15 since April 1
Leviathan - Newsham, shibby, Shredder, Jenkins, FlyingZebra - 3/7 since April 1
mousesports - Black^, qojqva, bulba, wayto, pieliedie - 12/7 since April 1
Voidboys - mercy plz, 747, OmegaPwner, fly, xuan - 3/8 since April 1
Complexity - Zyzzy, Swindlemelonz, MoonMeander, Zfreek, Simbaaa - 7/9 since April 1
NAR - USH, Korok, MSS, Fogged, bLeeK - 9/3 since April 1
Wheel Wreck While Whistling - Sleisel, ixmike88, Relic, Gudii, DurpDurp - 6/8 since April 1
unknown - ztok, greeeedy, acccelll, Minoz, Dark Konoha - no record
To me, this qualifier is actually probably the most interesting. There's a lot of decent teams here with two teams that I think clearly loom large over the rest of the field: NAR and mousesports. This group is actually I think the most likely region where the open qualifier winner could make some noise (as that squad is comprised of old members of Union Gaming from Peru). If the format for the qualifiers is the same as last year, where 4 teams advance to a playoff round, then here are my expectations for what will happen:
1. mousesports
2. NAR
3. Root
4. Not Today
5. Wheel Wreck While Whistling
6. Complexity
7. Unknown
8. eHug
9. Voidboys
10. Leviathan
I think the top 3 are fairly set based on recent performances (both objectively and subjectively), while I think any team from 4 - 7 could claim that 4th spot depending on how things shake out. I think eHug, Voidboys, and especially Leviathan (sorry guys) are out of their league with the rest of the competition, especially in recent performances.
NAR hasn't done that well against mousesports in the past, so I think you'll probably see the direct invite go to mousesports at the end of the day. I think that NAR and mouse are far enough ahead of every other team that it will be unlikely that another team from those two makes the final play in series for Seattle.
NAR is a team that is quite strong, and I think the expectation for them would be to make the main tournament if they go as a qualifier team.
Europe
Vega - No[o]ne, CEMA, Mag, Solo, 9pash - 20/8 since April 1
Burden United - SingSing, Necqroman, PARIS, comewithme, mynuts - 10/10 since April 1
Na'Vi - XBOCT, Dendi, Funnik, Artstyle, Sonneiko - 4/5 since April 1
Power Rangers - DityaRa, Sunlight, chshrcat, j4, KingR - 10/9 since April 1
Ninjas In Pajamas - Era, Limmp, jonassofman, Handsken, Sealkid - 11/15 since April 1
Alliance - Loda, Akke, madshka, AdmiralBulldog, Pajkatt - 14/10 since April 1
London Conspiracy - Keyser Soze, Madara, Skylark, Skanks, Ssspartan - 10/9 since April 1
Hellraisers - Dread, Gorec, goddam, Afoninje, ARTES - 9/9 since April 1
4 Anchors - Trixi, Matubaman, buggi, vaalix, nemphy - 11/6 since April 1
Yellow Submarine - Miposhka, Barash, Dale, PSM, Fervian - 3/3 since April 1
The region that every thinks is the absolute strongest. I don't necessarily disagree, though I think the region is way over hyped due to the overexposure of their tournaments. However, I think the dangerous teams in this qualifier might be a bit different than people expect. Alliance has been extremely strong recently, and surprisingly so has Vega (20-8 in the last month and a half?!?!) and 4 Anchors (11/6). Other normal favorites have been slumping: NiP has been performing poorly (albeit maybe against slightly stronger competition) and Hellraisers has a lot of losses against Secret and iG (which lets be honest, that is to be expected). Then there is Na'Vi, that hasn't played much at all for the past two months. Here would be my rankings going into the qualifier:
1. Alliance
2. Hellraisers
3. Vega
4. Na'Vi
5. Ninjas In Pajamas
6. Burden United
7. 4 Anchors and a Sea Captain
8. Power Rangers
9. London Conspiracy
10. Yellow Submarine
Honestly, I could see any team from the top 7 potentially getting a spot in Seattle, though I think only the top 4 I've listed are likely to win the qualifier outright. Vega has been deceptively strong, Alliance is rising, and the Hell Raisers is probably strong as ever since they just been taking a beating from iG and Secret. I want to root for 4 Anchors to do well, but I feel that they lack good decision making even though they have been winning more recently. Burden got done beating NiP at the Dota 2 Champions League LAN final, and I believe those two teams are fairly close.
No matter who gets second in this qualifier, I have to imagine they are a favorite to get a spot in the play in series. I'd go and say it's almost a definite lock that the second place team here gets into TI anyway.
China
Tongfu - Red, uuu9, qian, lpc, Kabu - 8/16 since April 1
CDEC - Shiki, Xz, Garder, Q, 上头 - 11/9 since April 1
Newbee Youth - 飘杰 , Sccc, 456, MKSos, Mrrr - 6/5 since April 1
HGT - ZSMJ, xtt, Air, kaka, prettyhaw - 14/10 since April 1
Energy Pacemaker - FaN, old chicken, le, 123456, lt - 14/9 since April 1
Vici Potential - xll, Yang, Lin, dogfight, James - 9/6 since April 1
EHome - Yang, cty, rotK, LaNm, DDC - 15/12 since April 1
Tongfu Wanzhou - XinQ, yCyk, DDR, sayaka, zExBinGo - 2/4 since April 1
Old Boys - Zhou, YYF, DD, LongDD, 820 - 1/3 since April 1
Wings - xdd, InJuly, Super, jdh, hdhp - No results.
This is a good qualifier too! Lots of tier 2 Chinese teams take games off of each other, and as a result there's no good way to really predict whats going to happen here. CDEC, HGT, and EHome have the star power, but Energy Pacemaker and Vici Potential have been playing really well. There's also the wildcards in Old Boys and Wings, who are full of older players and stars from previous teams. The only teams I think that overmatched here are Tongfu and Newbee Youth, and possibly Old Boys (they haven't played well if you've watched some Chinese Dota). My rankings for this region would probably be as follows:
1. CDEC
2. HGT
3. Energy Pacemaker
4. EHome
5. Vici Potential
6. Wings
7. Tongfu Wanzhou
8. Tongfu
9. Newbee Youth
10. Old Boys
Vici Potential has a chance to make the top 4, but I think there's a pretty clear line between the top 4 teams in this qualifier and the other teams. In recent results, I would pick CDEC or HGT to be in the finals, but EHome or Energy Packmaker could make things interesting. One thing to watch here will be Energy Pacemaker, who have some of the craziest drafts in the world and are the sole reason that BH is near first ban status in the current Chinese tier two meta.
The team that gets second place here is likely to be expected to make the main event, but I actually don't think that China is a very strong region outside of their top 3 teams. I would give the second place Chinese team about the same odds to make the main event as I would give the American second place team, and a lot less chance than the European second place team.
Southeast Asia
5eva - Chibix, Meracle, Ysera, Poloson, Ks - 5/7 since April 1
Mineski - Bimbo, Kuku, JessieVash, Gio, Owa - 13/7 since April 1
Can't Say Wips - Chains, weddingcrash, Tudi, Godot, 343 - 6/9 since April 1
Rave - Jeyo, ninjaboogie, RyOyr, Chrissy, Cast - 2/5 since April 1
TnC - eyyou, teehee, sam_H, seven, gnoji - 6/3 since April 1
MVP Phoenix - Febby, QO, kphoenii, March, NutZ - 6/10 since April 1
Signature Trust - Lakelz, MyPro, aabBAA, Jab, bombelll - 8/7 since April 1
G Guard - Ben, Yamateh, WinteR, net, ling - 7/8 since April 1
MVP Hot6ix - Forev, MP, SunBhie, Heen, JerAx - 9/2 since April 1
Invasion - dabeliuteef, slickz, Ghost, ATDR, XtiNcT - New roster
This qualifier is going to be a mess. I think there's a clear top two in this qualifier in the form of Rave and MVP.Hot6ix, but Mineski and TnC have been playing really well recently. MVP Phoenix has strong players, as does signature trust and 5eva. Don't let Rave's record fool you, I think they are still a clear favorite here. Here would be my current ranking of these teams:
1. Rave
2. MVP.Hot6ix
3. Mineski
4. MVP Phoenix
5. G Guard
6. Signature Trust
7. Invasion
8. TnC
9. 5eva
10. Can't Say Wips
I think the only team that is outmatched here is Can't Say Wips. Every other team in this qualifier could make a run at top 4, but I think the distance between MVP.Hot6ix, Rave and the rest of the field is pretty substantial. Mineski played very well at the recent MPGL LAN, as did TnC and Signature Trust. MVP Phoenix has talent but hasn't played well since their roster change.
In terms of making the main event, I think that both Rave and MVP.Hot6ix are actually quite strong as evidenced by Rave's performance this year and decent showing at the Summit (even though they lost every game a couple of dumb mistakes prevented them from winning at least 1) and MVP.Hot6ix beating Energy Pacemaker at the MPGL LAN, which is a team I expect to do very well in the Chinese qualifiers. Because of this, I feel that if the second place team is MVP.Hot6ix or Rave then there's a good chance that one of the qualifier spots might go to SEA instead of America or China.
In summary:
Americas: mouz wins, NAR gets second
Europe: Alliance wins, HellRaisers gets second
China: CDEC wins, HGT gets second
SEA: Rave wins, MVP.Hot6ix gets second
Out of the remaing teams: Hell Raisers and NAR advance to the main event.
Let me know what you guys think! Discuss the qualifiers, where you think I'm dumb, and what you think might happen. One more week and we're in the best part of the Dota 2 season!
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I think anything can happen in NA tbh, no team is solid and without weaknesses.
take mouz. not to flame, but they probably don't have the strongest players in each position. compare this with a mss+fogged duo.
without a strong foundation, black is often pressured into feeling like he has to "make something happen." this mentality is exacerbated by his recent residency with VG. little q-god, on the other hand, doesn't really want to make anything happen, but it falls on him anyway by default since nothing is happening. so you have games where the two germans are making things happen for entirely different reasons and the whole thing just crumbles.
take NAR. in my opinion, this lineup is perfectly viable skill-wise. but I think they will be a bit predictable (and I hope I'm wrong), and who on this team will do the homework? these players know they are good players, and why should they be unpredictable or "play the other team" or do anything except be stable, as they are. they're too good to be called "pub players", but not serious enough to really be considered "professionals." I hope they will surprise us, I'm personally cheering for this team. ush fan since SNA days, and we all remember the impression MSS made standing in for EG. Fogged of course gives people nothing to complain about (which somehow seems like a negative thing in modern days)
Basically I think all bets are off. There are no best players, and moreover, no best teams.
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I agree with a lot of your picks here, and I don't know nearly as much about the SEA and European scenes as you do! Thanks for the writeup, I will be referencing this later when the qualifiers get underway :D
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On May 19 2015 05:21 aboxcar wrote:
I think anything can happen in NA tbh, no team is solid and without weaknesses.
take mouz. not to flame, but they probably don't have the strongest players in each position. compare this with a mss+fogged duo.
without a strong foundation, black is often pressured into feeling like he has to "make something happen." this mentality is exacerbated by his recent residency with VG. little q-god, on the other hand, doesn't really want to make anything happen, but it falls on him anyway by default since nothing is happening. so you have games where the two germans are making things happen for entirely different reasons and the whole thing just crumbles.
take NAR. in my opinion, this lineup is perfectly viable skill-wise. but I think they will be a bit predictable (and I hope I'm wrong), and who on this team will do the homework? these players know they are good players, and why should they be unpredictable or "play the other team" or do anything except be stable, as they are. they're too good to be called "pub players", but not serious enough to really be considered "professionals." I hope they will surprise us, I'm personally cheering for this team. ush fan since SNA days, and we all remember the impression MSS made standing in for EG. Fogged of course gives people nothing to complain about (which somehow seems like a negative thing in modern days)
Basically I think all bets are off. There are no best players, and moreover, no best teams.
With all due respect, I actually disagree with you whole heartedly. Mouz probably doesn't have the strongest players at each position (though you could argue that fact with Black^, Bulba, and qojqva in the NA qualifiers at least) but I haven't really seen what you're talking about manifest itself in American play. I don't think mouz has lost to an American team in a very long time in a best of 3. I actually think NAR's advantage is unpredictability over mouz. They play some strange heroes like Ursa frequently, but their support duo has not been really playing well at all in official matches. But they are a great team, and very likely to do well, so root for them! I don't think they are likely to win, but they should do quite well for themselves.
The whole point of this post is to separate out the wheat from the chaff and provide context for these qualifiers, which are extremely important. Sure, anything CAN happen, but I was trying to point out things that I think are most likely to happen in the qualifiers.
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if you qualify your statement with "in american play," it means you recognize what I'm talking about then
admittedly I don't watch all of the NA matches so my impression of NAR may be outdated
my main point is I think it will be a mistake to underestimate some others just cause you don't know them. ush was once an unknown. you can't judge before observing. and I'm not just throwing this out there meaninglessly as an unknown possibility, or a pointless "can," but because I've seen some of these lesser known players play, and they are good, and because I've seen some of these known players play, and they are bad.
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NA
Winner: Its a crapshoot
Runners Up (Redemption wildcard slot): Crapshoots
EU:
Winner: NiP, Alliance, Navi
Runners Up: One of those teams
CN
Winner: CDEC, HGT, TongFu, EHOME
Runners Up: One of those teams
SEA
Winner: MVP, Rave
Runners Up: Crapshoot
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Mouz will win NA qualifier comfortably. In TI, they may have the chance of being better than 12th. Just treat them like how you expect liquid to perform.
NAR may struggle in the qualifiers. That's because they have been very inconsistent. Some random NA team may also show up. Hard to judge who gets the wildcard slot.
NIP will definitely not go to TI. They will have dominant games here and there, but they will choke when it matters. They have been in very poor form, and their decision making have been disastrous.
Alliance will win the qualifier if they develop a new effective strategy. Their performance is very dependent on their draft. They are no longer able to win out of pure outplay, unless they have prophet. I doubt any team will give them that though. My prediction is that they will end up 3rd however. No prophet, and their drafts will get figured out.
Hell raisers will win the qualifiers. I see them dominating the qualifiers with sheer aggression and solid drafts.
Navi will go as the wildcard. They have been improving a lot since artstyle returned. They will dominate many games from early on, with notable Chen/enchant pressure. On second thoughts, I think they will end up 3rd. That's because they would face alliance for the wildcard slot, and artstyle will stubbornly refuse to ban prophet. Then navi will dominate early game, but lose to rat despite xboct and Dendi being high networth.
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I'll just throw in my 2c for China:
Likely to qualify tier:
EHOME - They've seems to have settled down with Cty. Mostly the same as old EHOME, but with a vast improvement in the midlane. Cty seems to have carried his instability over though. Throw in the ROTK feed into the mix and we have a team that will crush the opposition in 20 minutes if given the opportunity, but can also get stomped like a Tier 3 team at Starladder.
HGT - Same as old. Against team of similar caliber, their problem of going high ground is less of a problem. They really need to get rid of the bounty pick though, as its not really working out. XTT is a vast improvement over Icy. Their stale draft problem is still there, and so is Kaka's relatively small hero pool compared to other support players. His Io is top tier, but its also first banned pretty much every games.
CDEC - Least name power, but best drafting. Q is really good at that. Their drow visage pocket strat just got nerfed, but they're still a very capable team. Nothing quite stand out, good or bad, but they do take their fair share of wins just playing methodically, much like old LGD. If HGT starts tilting, or EHOME start feeding as a team in the qualifier, CDEC will run away with the number 1 slot
Can challenge the top teams tier
TongFu - They brought in MelodyLover, and moved Kabu to carry. MelodyLover is a REALLY GOOD drafter, and his pocket strats carried SPG.NT to a perfect group stage score in i-league S2 qualifier, against Newbee and HGT. The rest of the team is kind of meh, but they do have the ability to take wins, or at least make HGT/EHOME/CDEC sweats. One loss to TongFu, and those 3 could see themself getting knocked out before the play-off, like HGT last year.
VG.P - No idea who their players are, aside from James and DogFight from IMG at DAC. Nothing to write home about, but they're a capable team that can take wins off the top 3.
EP - They had a string of upsets at the start of the patch, upsetting EHOME, HGT and iG out of i-league S3, as well as HGT out of that SEA tournament. Same roster from DAC IIRC, their results depends on the other teams's ability to adapt to the patch.
NB.Y - Same as VG.P.
The rest:
OB - Fun teams, name power, but poor results.
TongFu.WZ - TongFu's B squad. XinQ and Bingo are pub stars, no idea about the rest. They're here for experience, that's all. I'm pretty surprised Valve invited them over IMG or any other teams, since neither played much since formation. TF has the brand power, and that's it.
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On May 19 2015 15:21 DucK- wrote:
Mouz will win NA qualifier comfortably. In TI, they may have the chance of being better than 12th. Just treat them like how you expect liquid to perform.
NAR may struggle in the qualifiers. That's because they have been very inconsistent. Some random NA team may also show up. Hard to judge who gets the wildcard slot.
NIP will definitely not go to TI. They will have dominant games here and there, but they will choke when it matters. They have been in very poor form, and their decision making have been disastrous.
Alliance will win the qualifier if they develop a new effective strategy. Their performance is very dependent on their draft. They are no longer able to win out of pure outplay, unless they have prophet. I doubt any team will give them that though. My prediction is that they will end up 3rd however. No prophet, and their drafts will get figured out.
Hell raisers will win the qualifiers. I see them dominating the qualifiers with sheer aggression and solid drafts.
Navi will go as the wildcard. They have been improving a lot since artstyle returned. They will dominate many games from early on, with notable Chen/enchant pressure. On second thoughts, I think they will end up 3rd. That's because they would face alliance for the wildcard slot, and artstyle will stubbornly refuse to ban prophet. Then navi will dominate early game, but lose to rat despite xboct and Dendi being high networth.
My problem with ranking Na'Vi highly is that they've hardly played any games in the past two months. We've seen a lot of Alliance and Vega and a decent amount from Hell Raisers, but like nothing from Na'Vi. I just don't think predicting them to do well is more than hope at the current moment in time. They do have the players to win the whole thing, but I've been more impressed with Vega and Alliance lately than I was with the brief period we saw for Na'Vi.
Maybe some more Dreamleague games will help make this picture a little clearer!
As for American, NAR is not really that inconsistent. They've performed quite well over the past two months (as indicated by their record), and they have some really good players. I don't think they are Mouz level, but at the same time I would be hard pressed to see any team outside of Root Gaming showing up enough to knock either of those two out of TI. It's the same picture for SEA with Rave and MVP.Hot6ix in my opinion.
But no one can know what will happen with certainty! That's why they play the games.
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On May 19 2015 20:38 AbareKiller wrote:
I'll just throw in my 2c for China:
Likely to qualify tier:
EHOME - They've seems to have settled down with Cty. Mostly the same as old EHOME, but with a vast improvement in the midlane. Cty seems to have carried his instability over though. Throw in the ROTK feed into the mix and we have a team that will crush the opposition in 20 minutes if given the opportunity, but can also get stomped like a Tier 3 team at Starladder.
HGT - Same as old. Against team of similar caliber, their problem of going high ground is less of a problem. They really need to get rid of the bounty pick though, as its not really working out. XTT is a vast improvement over Icy. Their stale draft problem is still there, and so is Kaka's relatively small hero pool compared to other support players. His Io is top tier, but its also first banned pretty much every games.
CDEC - Least name power, but best drafting. Q is really good at that. Their drow visage pocket strat just got nerfed, but they're still a very capable team. Nothing quite stand out, good or bad, but they do take their fair share of wins just playing methodically, much like old LGD. If HGT starts tilting, or EHOME start feeding as a team in the qualifier, CDEC will run away with the number 1 slot
Can challenge the top teams tier
TongFu - They brought in MelodyLover, and moved Kabu to carry. MelodyLover is a REALLY GOOD drafter, and his pocket strats carried SPG.NT to a perfect group stage score in i-league S2 qualifier, against Newbee and HGT. The rest of the team is kind of meh, but they do have the ability to take wins, or at least make HGT/EHOME/CDEC sweats. One loss to TongFu, and those 3 could see themself getting knocked out before the play-off, like HGT last year.
VG.P - No idea who their players are, aside from James and DogFight from IMG at DAC. Nothing to write home about, but they're a capable team that can take wins off the top 3.
EP - They had a string of upsets at the start of the patch, upsetting EHOME, HGT and iG out of i-league S3, as well as HGT out of that SEA tournament. Same roster from DAC IIRC, their results depends on the other teams's ability to adapt to the patch.
NB.Y - Same as VG.P.
The rest:
OB - Fun teams, name power, but poor results.
TongFu.WZ - TongFu's B squad. XinQ and Bingo are pub stars, no idea about the rest. They're here for experience, that's all. I'm pretty surprised Valve invited them over IMG or any other teams, since neither played much since formation. TF has the brand power, and that's it.
Thank you for this! Very informative. I think that EP is the best of the rest, but I'm a little surprised you rank Tongfu so highly given their dismal performances recently. Who did melodylovers replace on the roster?
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If the teams show up as they normally do it will be a battle between Alliance and Hellraisers with a low chance for NiP and Vega at 4:th. (Vega has been performing VERY well recently. If they keep that up they will win the EU qualifier.)
They will all come in with specialised drafts so that will be interesting and matter a great deal. A big risk is I-league where Alliance might tip their hand too much.
Several teams playing in tournaments today.
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On May 19 2015 22:04 MetalMercury wrote:Show nested quote +On May 19 2015 20:38 AbareKiller wrote:
I'll just throw in my 2c for China:
Likely to qualify tier:
EHOME - They've seems to have settled down with Cty. Mostly the same as old EHOME, but with a vast improvement in the midlane. Cty seems to have carried his instability over though. Throw in the ROTK feed into the mix and we have a team that will crush the opposition in 20 minutes if given the opportunity, but can also get stomped like a Tier 3 team at Starladder.
HGT - Same as old. Against team of similar caliber, their problem of going high ground is less of a problem. They really need to get rid of the bounty pick though, as its not really working out. XTT is a vast improvement over Icy. Their stale draft problem is still there, and so is Kaka's relatively small hero pool compared to other support players. His Io is top tier, but its also first banned pretty much every games.
CDEC - Least name power, but best drafting. Q is really good at that. Their drow visage pocket strat just got nerfed, but they're still a very capable team. Nothing quite stand out, good or bad, but they do take their fair share of wins just playing methodically, much like old LGD. If HGT starts tilting, or EHOME start feeding as a team in the qualifier, CDEC will run away with the number 1 slot
Can challenge the top teams tier
TongFu - They brought in MelodyLover, and moved Kabu to carry. MelodyLover is a REALLY GOOD drafter, and his pocket strats carried SPG.NT to a perfect group stage score in i-league S2 qualifier, against Newbee and HGT. The rest of the team is kind of meh, but they do have the ability to take wins, or at least make HGT/EHOME/CDEC sweats. One loss to TongFu, and those 3 could see themself getting knocked out before the play-off, like HGT last year.
VG.P - No idea who their players are, aside from James and DogFight from IMG at DAC. Nothing to write home about, but they're a capable team that can take wins off the top 3.
EP - They had a string of upsets at the start of the patch, upsetting EHOME, HGT and iG out of i-league S3, as well as HGT out of that SEA tournament. Same roster from DAC IIRC, their results depends on the other teams's ability to adapt to the patch.
NB.Y - Same as VG.P.
The rest:
OB - Fun teams, name power, but poor results.
TongFu.WZ - TongFu's B squad. XinQ and Bingo are pub stars, no idea about the rest. They're here for experience, that's all. I'm pretty surprised Valve invited them over IMG or any other teams, since neither played much since formation. TF has the brand power, and that's it.
Thank you for this! Very informative. I think that EP is the best of the rest, but I'm a little surprised you rank Tongfu so highly given their dismal performances recently. Who did melodylovers replace on the roster?
EP's winstreak is more on their draft and playstyle working well with the new patch. They were a team that consistently picked PL for example, even before 6.84 hit. MelodyLover replaced Qian, they moved Kabu to carry, UUU9 to mid and SryFox-Red back to offlane. And the ranking aren't in order inside the tiers. I put TongFu at the top since it was the first team that caught my eye on the Liquipedia page
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[A] is not getting better, AB's return is way overhyped and he has been playing total pub style in games (he still doesn't want to play pro dota). NIP or Hellraisers will take EU with the other in second.
HGT will take the China qualifier as they are only slightly behind the T1 Chinese teams, but Ehome might be able to upset with the competitive experience of Lanm. CDEC has a chance, but when it comes down to big tournaments I always go with experience over young talent.
Mouz has the AM spot easy, and 2nd is a toss-up between Root and NAR depending on who tilts harder on that day.
SEA is easy with 2 top teams, but who takes 1st is up in the air.
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if rave doesnt pull through then TI is dead to me
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On May 19 2015 05:51 MetalMercury wrote:Show nested quote +On May 19 2015 05:21 aboxcar wrote:
I think anything can happen in NA tbh, no team is solid and without weaknesses.
take mouz. not to flame, but they probably don't have the strongest players in each position. compare this with a mss+fogged duo.
without a strong foundation, black is often pressured into feeling like he has to "make something happen." this mentality is exacerbated by his recent residency with VG. little q-god, on the other hand, doesn't really want to make anything happen, but it falls on him anyway by default since nothing is happening. so you have games where the two germans are making things happen for entirely different reasons and the whole thing just crumbles.
take NAR. in my opinion, this lineup is perfectly viable skill-wise. but I think they will be a bit predictable (and I hope I'm wrong), and who on this team will do the homework? these players know they are good players, and why should they be unpredictable or "play the other team" or do anything except be stable, as they are. they're too good to be called "pub players", but not serious enough to really be considered "professionals." I hope they will surprise us, I'm personally cheering for this team. ush fan since SNA days, and we all remember the impression MSS made standing in for EG. Fogged of course gives people nothing to complain about (which somehow seems like a negative thing in modern days)
Basically I think all bets are off. There are no best players, and moreover, no best teams.
With all due respect, I actually disagree with you whole heartedly. Mouz probably doesn't have the strongest players at each position (though you could argue that fact with Black^, Bulba, and qojqva in the NA qualifiers at least) but I haven't really seen what you're talking about manifest itself in American play. I don't think mouz has lost to an American team in a very long time in a best of 3. I actually think NAR's advantage is unpredictability over mouz. They play some strange heroes like Ursa frequently, but their support duo has not been really playing well at all in official matches. But they are a great team, and very likely to do well, so root for them! I don't think they are likely to win, but they should do quite well for themselves. The whole point of this post is to separate out the wheat from the chaff and provide context for these qualifiers, which are extremely important. Sure, anything CAN happen, but I was trying to point out things that I think are most likely to happen in the qualifiers.
I've watched more NAR, and indeed they look kind of NA dota
so maybe mouz really is a shoe in
e: although i guess they had a stand in
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awesome stuff. Thanks.
Mind sharing your opinion on EU qualifiers predictions (most hero kills, most picked/banned hero etc)?
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Hey, so we have a new format that involves groups. I'll quickly add this as a supplement to what I've written above:
Americas Group A: Not Today, Void Boys, Wheel Wreck While Whistling, North American Rejects, Leviathan
Americas Group B: ROOT, Complexity, eHug, mousesports, Unknown.xiu
Group A is pretty competitive. Not Today and NAR are probably the favorites, but I've heard through the grapevine that Leviathan has hired a new coach that has been helping them improve quite a bit, so there's still a chance. There's also rumors of PatSoul's return to Void Boys, but I find that unlikely. With patsoul they can win the qualifier, without him they'll get last or second to last in that group.
Group B: This group is worse than group A imo, I think Mouz has this group victory easy. Second place should be Root, I haven't heard much in American channels about coL, eHug, or Unknown. A lot of americans expect unknown to perform well, so we'll see if they can upset some teams.
Europe Group A: 4ASC, Burden United, Alliance, Power Rangers, NiP
Europe Group B: HellRaisers, Na'Vi, London Conspiracy, Vega, Yellow Submarine
Group A is kind of a joke. Every team in that qualifier has been on a downswing. I might adjust my previous rankings and say that Burden United is the best team in this group, with Alliance and 4ASC close behind. NiP has been in a huge downswing, and so has PR.
Group B is really strong. Hell Raisers, Na'Vi, and Vega are all in my top 3 in the European Qualifiers. One's going home early, my bet is on Na'Vi but we will see.
China Group A: EHome, Energy Pacemaker, Newbee Young, Tongfu Wanzhou, Old Boys
China Group B: CDEC, Vici.P, Tongfu, HGT, wings gaming
Group A is actually pretty weak. Newbee Young could contend for the top two I guess, but I think that EHome and Energy Pacemaker should walk all over this group.
Group B is very strong if the recent news earlier in this thread about Tongfu is correct. If that's the case, you might have the 3 top teams in China's qualifiers in this group. My guess is that CDEC and HGT make it out, but Tongfu could try to surprise. I feel bad for Vici.P, who could potentially get second in the other group but stand no chance here.
SEA Group A: 5eva, Mineski, G-Guard, MVP.Hot6ix, TnC Gaming
SEA Group B: MVP.Phoenix, Signature.Trust, Can't Say Wips, Rave, Invasion
These groups are so poorly balanced its almost an insult. Mineski and MVP.Hot6ix are pretty good teams and G-Guard is ok, but TnC and 5eva are pretty bad. On the other side, you have Phoenix, Invasion, Rave, and Trust, all of which are pretty decent teams. I think you'll see MVP.Hot6ix and Mineski from Group A, with Rave and MVP.Phoenix from group B with the potential for upsets from Invasion or Signature.Trust.
In my compendium I predicted for America because I know that region best. However, I would say that the most banned hero will be Wisp in every region, most picked hero will be either Gyro or QoP for every region. Most hero kills is probably going to be somewhere around 20 and probably will go to QoP, but could be Visage as well. Top crit is probably going to be around 1600 (fed PA's will crit for this much), and if you don't believe PA will ever be picked then it should be around 1200 (Tiny crit).
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Qualifier predictions:
NA: 1. mouz, 2. NAR, 3. Not Today, 4. Root
China: 1. CDEC, 2. HGT, 3. EP, 4. EHOME
EU: 1. Na'vi, 2. Alliance, 3. Vega, 4. BU (but I think that alliance is overrated, and I maybe trust Na'vi a bit too much)
SEA: 1. Rave, 2. MVP.hot6, 3. Mineski, 4. MVP.phoenix
qualifier predictions:
1. most kills: 81-100
2. hero with most kills: QOP
3. hero with most deaths: idk about this one
4. Latest FB: 3-5 min
5. Most roshan kills: 4-5
6. Largest crit: 1400-1600
7. highest gpm: 800-900
8. most picked hero: gyro
9. most banned: IO
10. number of heroes never picked or banned: no clue actually, I believe its gonna be 6-10 or 11-15
11. Longest game time: 81-90 (maybe a bit shorter, but you never know, some games just last too long)
12. shortest game: 13-16
13. rapiers: 4-6
14. aegis snatches: 4-6
I'm open for suggestions 
P.S. I don't like the format of the qualifiers, I think everyone should play everyone, this 2 group thing... I don't like it...
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Still want Navi to show up in TI
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How about:
EU: Alliance, NIP, Navi, HR
SEA: MVP.P, Rave, MVP.6, Mineski
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EPT
