NASL Playoff Picture - Week 9

Primadog

United States4411 Posts

June 04 2012 18:38 GMT

Outside of the GSL, NASL is the only Major with a proper league format. The regular / post season league design mirrors how most traditional sports operate, which can be a lot of fun analyzing, if anyone bothers.

How the league stand after week 8
[image loading]

Note: the black bars represent remaining matchups; source http://wiki.teamliquid.net/starcraft2/North_American_Star_League_Season_3

In week 9, five players have concluded seasonal play (one from each division - (Z)

Zenio,

Ryung,

GanZi,

Alicia, and (P)

Puzzle); 4 has two sets to play due to rescheduling (W7D1 (T)

PuMa vs

NightEnD, W8D5 (P)

White-Ra vs (T)

Polt); the remaining 36 players have a set left to play each.

Based on my discussion with Xeris, the league commisioner, the post season works like this in season 3:

8 players seeds directly into the post-season playoffs
- 5 - All five #1 seeds from each group
- 3 - three of five #2 seeds advance to directly to the playoffs
14 players goes into a wild-card race for 8 playoff spots (with addition of 2 players from The NASL Open)
11 more players remain safe for next season
12 players eliminated of NASL and will need to re-qualify

Notations I will be using

The playoff picture column lists possible post-season status for each players given their current standing.

League standings
[image loading]

For example, (P)

Puzzle already finished his regular season at 7-1 Sets +12 points . If (P)

MC wins 2-0 against (Z)

MorroW, MC will end Season 3 with 7-1 Sets +10 points ; If MorroW wins 2-0, MorroW will only be at 6-2 Sets 5 points - neither scenario will detrone Puzzle from the top seed in Division V. Therefore, Puzzle has guaranteed his spot in the post season playoffs.

Analysis

7 players are 6-win or better; 8 more can end up 6-win this week. Therefore all 6-win players will either be P or W and not SO
2 players are 7-lose or worse; 8 more can end up 7-lose this week. Therefore all 7-lose players will be O
13 players are 5-lose or worse; 9 more can end up 5-lose this week. Therefore all 5-lose players will either be O or S and cannot be PW
18 players are 5-win or better; 7 more players can end up 5-win this week. Therefore 5-win do not guarantee a player will be P or W.
Note: Stephano currently stands at 5-2 Sets 6 points his worst case scenario is losing 2-0 to NightEnD and all 18+7 players capable end up 5-win or better (shockingly possible). In that case, the standings can become
Therefore Stephano will still be W even if the stars align against him

MorroW

Even if MorroW 2-0 MC, the standings will still be

Therefore MorroW cannot be P

HerO

Worst Case scenario, Hasuobs 2-0 herO, Demuslim 2-0 Dimaga; division 2 becomes

And league wide worst case for HerO
Division I: Puma+15; Stephano +8
Division II: DeMusliM +10; HerO +8
Division III: HuK +10; Strelok +7
Division IV: Alicia +7; Ret +7
Division V: Puzzle +12; MC +10

Top seed: Puma > Puzzle = DeMuslim > HuK > Alicia
Second seed: MC > Stephano = HerO > Ret > Strelok

Therefore, HerO will still be P; additionally (P)

HasuObs cannot be P.

GanZi

Even if Strelok and Sen both lost their final matchup and that Strelok and Ganzi will both be 5-3 Sets +3 ; Strelok has the head-to-head win over Ganzi; therefore Ganzi cannot be P.

Only 4 players have post-season status decided prior the final week of NASL regular season. This means we can look forward to closely contested matches all week long, with players playing not only for the standard $150 each set, but also their post-season lives. During the same time last season, much more of the league standings had already been decided. This points to NASL making positive changes to the format, and that the NASL player pool has dropped its deadweight become much more competitive.

Thank you for reading! More edits and posts coming up as the final NASL week unfold before our eyes.

Balgrog

United States1221 Posts

June 04 2012 18:54 GMT

Awesome write up! I was actually just trying to look into all of this and figure it out. I love NASL and I am sure if you were to keep doing stuff of this quality you might be able to get a spot light or something. Please continue this throughout playoffs and finals, would <3 for ever. Oh and 5/5 for you of course, thanks again!

Edit, also a nice touch would be including the total amount of $ each player has won from winning their matches throughout the season!

Bagration

United States18282 Posts

June 04 2012 19:37 GMT

Thank you for this. Really clears a lot of questions up.

yoshi_yoshi

United States440 Posts

June 04 2012 19:52 GMT

Thanks for the write-up.

I prefer the way where top 2 from each division get in. Getting second in your division and being lumped in with the wild card spots seems a bit harsh to me.

TheRealNanMan

United States1471 Posts

June 04 2012 20:10 GMT

Thanks for the write up! :D I've been a big fan of NASL and sadly missed the last couple weeks but now I know exactly whats going on and who has the chance of making it to the playoffs and who wont be around next season

Whynaut

Canada367 Posts

June 04 2012 20:17 GMT

If ret wins 2-0, he is tied with puzzle at 6-2, with ret's map score at 13-6 and Puzzle's at 12-5 (both +7). Who will be first then?

Primadog

United States4411 Posts

June 04 2012 20:28 GMT

On June 05 2012 03:54 Balgrog wrote:
Awesome write up! I was actually just trying to look into all of this and figure it out. I love NASL and I am sure if you were to keep doing stuff of this quality you might be able to get a spot light or something. Please continue this throughout playoffs and finals, would <3 for ever. Oh and 5/5 for you of course, thanks again!

Edit, also a nice touch would be including the total amount of $ each player has won from winning their matches throughout the season!

Assuming it's straight $150 to the winner, no deductions for w/o and etc;

$23,700 total
  Puzzle	1050
  PuMa		900
  HerO		900
  DeMusliM	900
  HuK		900
  MC		900
  Alicia	900
  Stephano	750
  Strelok	750
  Ret		750
  HasuObs	750
  Sen		750
  LoWeLy	750
  MorroW	750
  TT1		750
  GanZi		750
  Zenio		750
  Ryung		750
  ThorZaIN	600
  SeleCT	600
  ClouD		600
  DIMAGA	600
  aLive		600
  NightEnD	450
  Polt		450
  TLO		450
  ViBE		450
  TargA		450
  Sheth		450
  CrazymoviNG	450
  MaNa		450
  White-Ra	300
  HwangSin	300
  IdrA		300
  qxc		300
  Brat_OK	150
  Rain		150
  NonY		150
  SjoW		150
  Axslav	150
  CrunCher	150
  DarKFoRcE	150
  CatZ		150
  Jinro		0
  HayprO	0

Primadog

United States4411 Posts

June 04 2012 20:29 GMT

On June 05 2012 05:17 Whynaut wrote:
If ret wins 2-0, he is tied with puzzle at 6-2, with ret's map score at 13-6 and Puzzle's at 12-5 (both +7). Who will be first then?

Assuming tie-breakers are same as season 2 http://wiki.teamliquid.net/starcraft2/North_American_Star_League_Season_2 Alicia owns the head-to-head, so Alicia is first seed.

FuDDx

United States5018 Posts

June 04 2012 21:34 GMT

^_^ !!

Thanks man

andReslic

216 Posts

June 04 2012 22:00 GMT

#10

lool jinro and HayprO showing how good they are

phiinix

United States1169 Posts

June 04 2012 22:43 GMT

#11

Don't watch NASL much, but cool write up

SanchoPanda

United States117 Posts

June 04 2012 23:23 GMT

#12

I love this blog post so much i want to marry it!

Prima you dog you!

Thanks so much for showing us how much we have to be excited about the week after MLG Anaheim! <3

Edit: upvote on REDDIT